Long Range Discussion 23.0

Frank_Wx wrote:A Roidzilla was born on the 18z NAM

That has to be a few inches of snow before this thing even gets close. I doubt it but as weather porn it works just fine.

If the low gets to the 40/70 BM check out the water temps from normal. Above average and warm for this time of year.

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:A Roidzilla was born on the 18z NAM

That has to be a few inches of snow before this thing even gets close. I doubt it but as weather porn it works just fine.

Yes, the overrunning snows are always a 'bonus' with Miller A's and normally only the meso models, such as the NAM, pick up on it well. We'll need another day for them to sort it out. But we could start snowing as early as Friday MORNING especially in western areas while picking up 1-4 inches before the main show even arrives.

Irish wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

Irish wrote:

mmanisca wrote:Frank just wondering, will you be starting a new thread for this storm??

Folks here are very superstitious. They feel that the posting of a storm thread on this random weather board will change the course of nature. Pretty powerful board if I might say so myself!

There are a lot of Italians on here,LOL.Posting that to early?.....MALOCCHIO!

Does this mean that we all have to wear a cornicello?  Or do we need nonna to hold a spoonful of olive oil over a bowl of water, while making the sign of the cross and saying a little prayer? Then dropping 3-5 drops of oil into the bowl with her little finger. Rinse and repeat 3-5 times.

I'm loving the Italian lessons! So much to take in!

And to think I didn't know until this morning that "Euro" was a traditional Italian name.

Frank_Wx wrote:If the low gets to the 40/70 BM check out the water temps from normal. Above average and warm for this time of year.

Am I presuming that like a tropical cyclone that would make it stronger? If this thing intensifies as much as has been shown could it have a eye, one year we did have a winter storm with a eye, i forget was it the 1016?

essexcountypete wrote:

Irish wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

Irish wrote:

mmanisca wrote:Frank just wondering, will you be starting a new thread for this storm??

Folks here are very superstitious. They feel that the posting of a storm thread on this random weather board will change the course of nature. Pretty powerful board if I might say so myself!

There are a lot of Italians on here,LOL.Posting that to early?.....MALOCCHIO!

Does this mean that we all have to wear a cornicello?  Or do we need nonna to hold a spoonful of olive oil over a bowl of water, while making the sign of the cross and saying a little prayer? Then dropping 3-5 drops of oil into the bowl with her little finger. Rinse and repeat 3-5 times.

I'm loving the Italian lessons! So much to take in!

And to think I didn't know until this morning that "Euro" was a traditional Italian name.

Well technically it is their currency even worse for my future wife

Frank_Wx wrote:

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:A Roidzilla was born on the 18z NAM

That has to be a few inches of snow before this thing even gets close. I doubt it but as weather porn it works just fine.

Yes, the overrunning snows are always a 'bonus' with Miller A's and normally only the meso models, such as the NAM, pick up on it well. We'll need another day for them to sort it out. But we could start snowing as early as Friday MORNING especially in western areas while picking up 1-4 inches before the main show even arrives.

Ahhhh, that wonderful term....Miller A !!!!

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:If the low gets to the 40/70 BM check out the water temps from normal. Above average and warm for this time of year.

Am I presuming that like a tropical cyclone that would make it stronger? If this thing intensifies as much as has been shown could it have a eye, one year we did have a winter storm with a eye, i forget was it the 1016?

With an upper level jet structure like this we'll see rapid cyclogenesis and prolific snowfall rates. You will wet your pants after you see tomorrow's NAM runs.

The over running is the PRE to these storms. It happens with Miller A's all the time and SWFE.
This is a phenomenal sign at 500mb and surface what the NAM is showing. Need another 2 days of this continuous model Roidzilla!

Frank_Wx wrote:If the low gets to the 40/70 BM check out the water temps from normal. Above average and warm for this time of year.

So this means more moisture for the storm to tap into, correct?

essexcountypete wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:If the low gets to the 40/70 BM check out the water temps from normal. Above average and warm for this time of year.

So this means more moisture for the storm to tap into, correct?

Theoretically, yes. The PWAT (precipitable water) will be at higher than normal levels

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:If the low gets to the 40/70 BM check out the water temps from normal. Above average and warm for this time of year.

Am I presuming that like a tropical cyclone that would make it stronger? If this thing intensifies as much as has been shown could it have a eye, one year we did have a winter storm with a eye, i forget was it the 1016?

With an upper level jet structure like this we'll see rapid cyclogenesis and prolific snowfall rates. You will wet your pants after you see tomorrow's NAM runs.

I will remember not to drink too much prior lol, man yeah that jet streak is nuts wow, trying to temper myself but this is all so exciting no? Yes I know we could get let down and am prepared for that but what is your thinking on the NAM/EURO verifying versus they GFS? Which has yet to smell the espresso, maybe 18z will.

Irish wrote:

mmanisca wrote:Frank just wondering, will you be starting a new thread for this storm??

Folks here are very superstitious. They feel that the posting of a storm thread on this random weather board will change the course of nature. Pretty powerful board if I might say so myself!

Very True.

We have actually offered up several members of the forum as a human sacrifice if certain storms would  go our way. It's why we had the Boxing Day storm and several others that seemed hopeless at the time.

BTW - I'm not suggesting human sacrifice as in their lives. Only that they be banned from posting for the rest of the winter should the storms hit. I would gladly offer up myself as the human sacrifice for this storm if the Euro Control K uchera snow map verifies.

So let it be written, so let it be done.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Irish wrote:

mmanisca wrote:Frank just wondering, will you be starting a new thread for this storm??

Folks here are very superstitious. They feel that the posting of a storm thread on this random weather board will change the course of nature. Pretty powerful board if I might say so myself!

Very True.

We have actually offered up several members of the forum as a human sacrifice if certain storms would  go our way. It's why we had the Boxing Day storm and several others that seemed hopeless at the time.

BTW - I'm not suggesting human sacrifice as in their lives. Only that they be banned from posting for the rest of the winter should the storms hit. I would gladly offer up myself as the human sacrifice for this storm if the Euro Control Crapola snow map verifies.

So let it be written, so let it be done.

The NAM is a completely separate animal at 18Z. These are good signs for sure.

18z ICON and 18z RGEM are east

I need to find a new hobby. I shouldn't have pit stains from looking at weather models.

I was looking at wrong information. The 18z RGEM actually is in line with the 18z NAM. A Roidzilla-esque look.

MADONNE!!!!!!!!!!!!

A complete tropospheric phase on the RGEM. That connection all the way from the Arctic is more beautiful than Sunday sauce and that says a lot for me

Biggest GFS run since December 24, 2010 coming up

18z GFS is looking good...

Frank_Wx wrote:I was looking at wrong information. The 18z RGEM actually is in line with the 18z NAM. A Roidzilla-esque look.

MADONNE!!!!!!!!!!!!

You’re killing me man. Meanwhile from the early looks of it the GFS is taking another step towards the EURO.

Major changes on the GFS, much improved from yesterday.

The GFS looks so good that it may actually be *better* than the EURO

Holy $%^&*(@

Oh boy!!!

Down to the gulf...gulp!