Re: Banter Thread 7.0

by **amugs** Thu Jan 20, 2022 8:50 pm

Tonga volcano : This is shockwave as measured with the IASI satellite mission (temperature perturbation between the day of the eruption and the next day). First time we see this ! pic.twitter.com/7uTCwP3tNP
— cathy clerbaux (@CathyClerbaux) January 19, 2022

by **crippo84** Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:10 am

Almost 24 hours since an update on the LR thread got me losing sleep. I need professional help.

by **rb924119** Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:56 am

crippo84 wrote:Almost 24 hours since an update on the LR thread got me losing sleep. I need professional help.

Ask and you shall receive lol though admittedly, I posted there before I checked in here haha

by **dkodgis** Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:23 am

Next Thursday, we move our son into Univ at Buffalo. Forecast: high of 20; low of 2. So much for Florida weather

by **amugs** Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:56 pm

This is mind blowing peeps. Holy mother of volcanic explosions. Do any of you have any idea what implications this could have IF verified which it looks to be?? Souhthwrn Hemisphere could be in for a major shift in weather. Need more research but from the looks this may be bigger than Pinatubo and Tambora level though not as long as either.

Perspective 55km = 180,000ft typical cruising altitude of commercial aircraft 35,000ft so the ash cloud was propelled more than 4 times higher. Insane. https://t.co/maZ2lNEiPs
— London & Southeast (@TheSnowDreamer) January 20, 2022

#Miami might have just recorded its 8th pressure wave from the #TongaVolcano on Thursday morning, 5.5 days after eruption. From these well-timed anomalies, I calculate an average wave speed of 707 mph (316 m/s). This eruption rivals the 1883 eruption of #Krakatoa in its violence. pic.twitter.com/tU5PULwsX9
— Brian McNoldy (@BMcNoldy) January 20, 2022

by **dkodgis** Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:50 pm

Wow’ almost 35 miles high

by **lglickman1** Sat Jan 22, 2022 3:27 pm

Correct me if I'm wrong. But if we can't manage to get much more snow this season, wouldn't this be one of the most snow -less years on records for nyc metro?

by **jmanley32** Sat Jan 22, 2022 3:50 pm

lglickman1 wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong. But if we can't manage to get much more snow this season, wouldn't this be one of the most snow -less years on records for nyc metro?

yes this is 1.8 inches higher here than a few seasons ago when I saw 5 inches total.

by **amugs** Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:03 pm

dkodgis wrote:Wow’ almost 35 miles high

And they just revised the plume again peeps to 180,000 feet. Hit the Mesosphere. This is crazy and it is not even the BIG one that Casey, Dilley, DuByne, Davidson have all been talking about!!!
Next 6-18 months we'll see what the effects are but global cooling by about .5C is definitely on the table.

by **amugs** Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:53 pm

This video gets into exactly what I posted above.

by **Math23x7** Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:03 pm

Six years ago tonight:

I was in Bellerose at the time. Got 25" from this.

by **amugs** Sun Jan 23, 2022 10:19 am

Yes lets live through our past snowstorms because the ones staring us next weekend needs work. This is a very frustrating winter. Reminds me of 72-73 winter lots of cold and few minute storms.
The models this winter love to show moderate to bombs 8,7,6 days out only to do the ol wrestling 2 -3 point reversal and slam us on our backs. See the ridge rolling east on the ENS and their lean a bit East is not a good sign. We have ways for this to work and it is a stronger storm for one that will allow a more westward track. Direct hit on NYC metro is slowly fading.

The blizzard of 1996 was the most crippling blizzard from DC to Maine compared to the 1947(?) blizzard and the great Arctic Blizzard in 1899 from Jacksonville to Maine saw 6" or more of snow and absolutely frigid temperatures.

by **jmanley32** Sun Jan 23, 2022 9:47 pm

Saw this on twitter and had share it too freaking funny.

by **Scullybutcher** Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:28 am

I’ll wait till Wednesday to start getting excited

by **phil155** Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:34 am

amugs wrote:Yes lets live through our past snowstorms because the ones staring us next weekend needs work. This is a very frustrating winter. Reminds me of 72-73 winter lots of cold and few minute storms.
The models this winter love to show moderate to bombs 8,7,6 days out only to do the ol wrestling 2 -3 point reversal and slam us on our backs. See the ridge rolling east on the ENS and their lean a bit East is not a good sign. We have ways for this to work and it is a stronger storm for one that will allow a more westward track. Direct hit on NYC metro is slowly fading.

The blizzard of 1996 was the most crippling blizzard from DC to Maine compared to the 1947(?) blizzard and the great Arctic Blizzard in 1899 from Jacksonville to Maine saw 6" or more of snow and absolutely frigid temperatures.

I remember the 96 blizzard vividly, that is still my personal all time favorite snow storm. I was living in jersey city at the time and my street was not plowed for 3 days and the drifts were massive. Storm was truly epic

by **TheAresian** Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:19 pm

There's still 6" or so on the ground here so I'll get the foam finger and what not ready to cheer for you all to get your storm.

by **amugs** Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:45 pm

Folks, this is mind boggling 10 x around the beautiful God given planet of beauty this shockwave has travelled. I asked how this affects the resonance and waves of the atmospheric fluid dynamics? Does it cause perturbations at different level and what role does it have? Just amazing to me. Imagine what Krakatoa and Tambura did??

It is amazing that after 7 days the #Tonga #eruption shock wave continues to circle the planet (10 times!) and can still be detected in the infrared by geostationary satellites such as #GOES16 and #GOES17. @matplotlib @xarray_dev @Satellite_GOES pic.twitter.com/1dSYZMdlGT
— diego aliaga (@diegoaliaga2) January 24, 2022

by **amugs** Mon Jan 24, 2022 3:03 pm

My wife's cousin worked in the Rockaways and Brooklyn houses - do not remember exactly for rears before moving up the ladder to Deputy Chief now - Coyne is his name.
Buddy - Kirchman works in the Bronx.
And John Bellew who was killed in the 2005 fire sadly.

by Ronfdny Mon Jan 24, 2022 4:04 pm

Kirchman I believe works in 39 truck

by **amugs** Mon Jan 24, 2022 5:58 pm

Ronfdny wrote:Kirchman I believe works in 39 truck

I'll ask him.
You know DC Coyne at all?

by **lglickman1** Mon Jan 24, 2022 6:33 pm

Watching models sniff out the eventual forecast is fascinating stuff, but for those that are emotionally invested in getting a good storm this is basically torture

by **Math23x7** Mon Jan 24, 2022 8:07 pm

Frank earlier:

Frank_Wx wrote:
sroc4 wrote:18z GFS looks like it wants to hold back some of the southern energy minimizing the phase keeping everything more progressive. That was the problem with this past weekends OTS soln. This go round the ridge looks more amplified out west which would lead to the N energy able to still dig, but if the phasing is delayed it may lead to the eastern soln. Like prev we have to watch for trends to de-amply the ridge over the next 2 days as the energy gets into better sampled areas.

Maybe Ray can chime in but we’re seeing a tendency for energy to be held back over the SW CONUS this year. If it happens again I’m shutting this board down permanently

Also Frank in November 2016:

Though to be honest, December 2021 was a very warm December and that was with Atlantic blocking in place. Without that blocking, the blowtorch in the deep south would have made its way into the northeast, giving us a December 2015 redux.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:44 pm

Why do I get the feeling that by tomorrow morning we're going to be back to where we were two days go? A near miss, for most and 2-4 that glances eastern LI.

by **docstox12** Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:17 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Why do I get the feeling that by tomorrow morning we're going to be back to where we were two days go? A near miss, for most and 2-4 that glances eastern LI.

CP, it seems that the pattern this year is for storms not to phase properly and get swept S and E of us by the progressive flow.We saw that with the last moderate snows, one missed us completely and the other we got half.Until that pattern changes, I don't expect a 20 inch snowfall up by us.Hope this next one breaks that pattern.We will know Thursday PM what will happen.

by **essexcountypete** Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:09 am

Michigan has given names to all their snowplows...

https://www.michigan.gov/mdot/0,4616,7-151-9615-575096--,00.html
https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2022/01/11/michigan-snowplow-names-mdot-contest/9169214002/

My top 5: Snowbegone Kenobi, Fast and Flurryous, Peppy Le Plow, Gordie Plow and Betty Whiteout
[ok, Top 6. Just saw Clearopathra. OMG this is awesome!]

"It is a lot of fun," Schirripa said. "But one of the biggest drivers internally for me was that this is a great way to humanize a group of folks in our agency who really don't get enough attention, and who really go unnoticed, and are often taken for granted. And that's our snowplow drivers, our maintenance workers, who I believe, and a lot of us believe, are absolute rock stars, they are superheroes."

by **dkodgis** Tue Jan 25, 2022 2:40 pm

Frank, nice picture. You look like the Terminator.

by **docstox12** Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:12 am

Oops, sorry about that Mugsy posting my thoughts on the upcoming storm on the long range thread.Your'e right, that is for the long range crew.Will do that here.Checking in tomorrow with the model runs today and tonight in the books.
The models did a great job picking up on this storm and the long range crew sniffed that out.

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