SNOW MAPS: January 28th-29th 2022
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SNOW MAPS: January 28th-29th 2022
My method. I looked at 7 different models including global operationals, their ensembles, as well as several short range hi res models. I looked at all of their 500mb and surface tracks, then looked at all the total QPF maps and created my zones. I then averaged the western and eastern parts of each individual zones QPF taking 4 numbers from each model within a given zone(an eastern number and western number). I averaged the 4 values for each model first, and then took that avg for all 7 models to get my overall avg for a particular zone. I then looked at temp profiles to account for ratios and sprinkled in a little intuition and that's how I came up with my totals. Obv there is a high degree of uncertainty as if the GFS an the GEFS are correct, and their are a few others that are really east with this sucker, the overall QPF will drop off significantly. If I removed the GFS and its ens from the equation all other models have a really nice event for all. Let's see what today brings.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: SNOW MAPS: January 28th-29th 2022
And I hope this counts as posting a snow call map, here is the Philly/Mt Holly 1st Call Map for the southern portions of the board. I think again, if you hit that +/- 4-8" MOE on it, it has a good shot to verify! Sounds crazy, but yeah, I guess there really is THAT much uncertainty. That is actually crazy!

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Re: SNOW MAPS: January 28th-29th 2022
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Re: SNOW MAPS: January 28th-29th 2022
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Re: SNOW MAPS: January 28th-29th 2022
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Re: SNOW MAPS: January 28th-29th 2022
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Re: SNOW MAPS: January 28th-29th 2022
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Re: SNOW MAPS: January 28th-29th 2022
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Re: SNOW MAPS: January 28th-29th 2022
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: SNOW MAPS: January 28th-29th 2022
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Re: SNOW MAPS: January 28th-29th 2022
Yes there were several jumpers a day or two ago but I think fortunately the main core of us were able to provide enough life preservers to save the snow weenie lives of most of you. Climb back aboard and get yourself next to the fire, and have yourselves a hot tottie and lets enjoy whatever white gold mother nature has in store for us.




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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: SNOW MAPS: January 28th-29th 2022
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Re: SNOW MAPS: January 28th-29th 2022
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: SNOW MAPS: January 28th-29th 2022
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: SNOW MAPS: January 28th-29th 2022
so wheres my blizzard warning then hmm? He is a good met so.amugs wrote:
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Re: SNOW MAPS: January 28th-29th 2022
thats the craziest map ive seen yet, who in the world is this and does it have merit?amugs wrote:Balls to the Wall here !!!
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Re: SNOW MAPS: January 28th-29th 2022
I am going to trust my instincts here and go by what many have been saying: models are struggling and current observations are painting a more impactful storm. This is my final call snow map.

Main differences from my 1st call:
*18"+ zone shrunk
*12-18" zone expanded more west thru Long Island and down the Jersey Shore
*6-12 instead of 8-12 to account for potential cut-off's WNW of heaviest snow axis
Speaking, below is a look at where the EURO and NAM show 700mb lift and heavier snow rates.
The EURO keeps the best lift across east end of LI into southeastern New England.


The NAM is quite similar, as the 700mb low passes east of Long Island.

A very difficult forecast that is guaranteed to bust in some places. We are past the point of model watching and in nowcast mode. However, I will be curious to see the 00z NAM tonight and see if it latches onto a last minute west trend, as is my belief.
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Re: SNOW MAPS: January 28th-29th 2022
In retrospect, had I made a map, it would have been too generous to the west, as I was thinking that the main band that setup along coastal NJ would be another 30 miles west (hence my liking of the I-95 corridor). So, I would have busted there, for sure. That said, I think the overall idea of a further west solution versus what guidance was indicating (even while the event was unfolding) proved to have merit, so I’m ok with that.
All in all, I think we did a really fantastic job as a group with this event, and as the first system that I could spend ANY time analyzing for this season, I couldn’t have asked for a better one. Great job, everybody, and for those of you who are newcomers, welcome aboard!! Onto the next one!!
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Re: SNOW MAPS: January 28th-29th 2022
great job done by all!! What a great group!!rb924119 wrote:Just doing some quick and dirty verification of our forecast maps for our board area, and if I might offer some constructive criticism, both Scott’s (sroc) and Frank’s final forecast maps were nearly perfect from what I can tell. However, it looks to me like Scott was a little too bullish on the westward expanse of the banding, and Frank was a little two generous into NEPA and the Catskills region. But your second call map was dead nuts man. The gradient in this storm were really tough, especially for NYC proper, and I think you both did incredibly well there.
In retrospect, had I made a map, it would have been too generous to the west, as I was thinking that the main band that setup along coastal NJ would be another 30 miles west (hence my liking of the I-95 corridor). So, I would have busted there, for sure. That said, I think the overall idea of a further west solution versus what guidance was indicating (even while the event was unfolding) proved to have merit, so I’m ok with that.
All in all, I think we did a really fantastic job as a group with this event, and as the first system that I could spend ANY time analyzing for this season, I couldn’t have asked for a better one. Great job, everybody, and for those of you who are newcomers, welcome aboard!! Onto the next one!!
So RB when do you think our next one is going to be.


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Re: SNOW MAPS: January 28th-29th 2022
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Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
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Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
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Re: SNOW MAPS: January 28th-29th 2022
I'll give myself a B+ with this. Tough storm to forecast honestly. When I released this map the NAM and GFS were still showing the heaviest snows offshore, and I ended up going with my gut and listening to other pro's such as Ray.

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