Coastal Storm Observations/Discssions October 10th-13th

Frank_Wx wrote:Ryan, do you think winds could gust over 40-50 mph?

I think so as the low gets closer to us and interacts with the HP gradient to the north. ACY is gusting past 35-40 right now, so it would make sense that Shore+LI will easily make it to 40. I think 50 may be a stretch.

But not out of the question along the Atlantic and Cape May counties or the whole shoreline?.  Frank, I see what you mean - FIOS 1 weather was saying that the H to the North will propagate the winds along the coasts due to a tight pressure gradient as well as keep the water along the shore for a good few days. Tings are going to be interesting  the next few days at the coast and possibly up here in NENJ but more so at the shore. Look forward to further updates and reports.

00z nam was impressive.

Soundings showing 3+ inches of rain for NYC on the NAM.

00z GFS total precip

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_036.jpg

Frank_Wx wrote:Soundings showing 3+ inches of rain for NYC on the NAM.

Nam looks like the outlier, gfs, sref, cmc have about 1.5" for me in NNJ and gfs even less...

00z gfs has HP heading east by 9 am allowing the precip to just blast into the area....going to be interesting to see which model is right with the precip.

Check out what the His Resolution NAM want to do to southern NJ.

All other models holding for the most part except the GFS backed off a bit again from yesterday. I think a general 1-3 (isolated higher amts) inches of rain for most of LI and along the NJ Coast is a safe bet with South NJ receiving higher amts.

0z Euro now has 3-5 inches of rain for the NYC area.

55 and showers right now

Every model is on board for heavy rain 2+ in NYC except the GFS. Lull in action till later today.
Still windy here sustained around 10-15 some gusts past 25. Not as bad as last night yet.
Tides are running really high down here though.
HPC going with 4-5 inches for Northern Jersey Shore to LI. Definitely on the higher end of guidance range. The hi res models have been showing heavy banding forming offshore then moving in. Could be reason for uptick in forecast

Imagine if this were snow   

It's only 53 degrees here :/

Looks like we can expect on and off showers through mid-afternoon. Then early this evening it should get heavy again...

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=DIX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Latest 12z models have suddenly cut the qpf in half. The EURO last night showed 4.28 inches of rain for NYC (based off soundings), but current radar suggests that will definitely not happen. It looks like what's happening is another storm in the central Atlantic is taking the energy away from this storm along the coast, so rainfall amounts will not be as high as previously expected. Not to mention there is a lot of dry air around getting into the 700mb of the atmopshere and causing a lot of dry slots to form.

Good thing this is not a winter storm, would have been a pretty ugly bust.

When it comes to rain though, not many of us care. Lol

The gfs may be right on this one...

Moderate-heavy rain here now. First since the morning.

Other than that....whens the radar going to fill in?? Im starting to think NYC might not see a inch unless things change soon offshore.

Ace,

I have had Nada - a brief sprinkle with cool breeze today and overcast skies - as Frank said  if this was a winter storm I would be flippin out about now.  Where in the world is the rain - to our east and west - from all models the west (Penn.) wasn't to get much rain but these storms are funny. Looking the radars it is starting to fill in the South but will it reach NYC or even up here in NNJ?? Remains to be seen.

Mugs

Mugs, I'm starting doubt meaningful precip will make it that far north. Maybe a quarter of a inch if any precip makes it their. As Frank said their is too much dry air infusion from the high to the north for precip to stay strong tht far from the low. But farther south were I am, we will still get our fair share. It has poured now for the past hour or two, in a small yet heavy rain and some wind. Models did a terrible job with this one.

Had a chance to look over what happened today...

The High located in the Gulf of Maine is providing too much dry air in the mid levels of the atmosphere, which has been the reason for all this dry slotting in NJ/NYC. However, the reason why eastern and central PA received their rain is because the easterly flow that same High is providing is pushing up against the Apps, causing orographic lift.

I wish I studied the upper levels closer with this system. Was too reliant on the models and it ends up screwing the forecast. Lesson learned and we move on.

Busted and it looks as though we learn once agin!!The low loks like it wil get surpressed south from that strong H over maine. You would think with a ne flow it would bring moisture, right? Off to coach my kids soccer game in this beautiful raw night!

The 18z NAM developed more rain and shifts it through Central/Southern NJ. Im not seeing it. I think our chance for heavy rain down here is decreasing every hour. Only light to moderate off and on rain till tomorrow morning....At least ill get to tailgate tomorrow before the football game down here now lol

Today turned out to be a nice and cool day. What a bust of a storm

Dunnzoo wrote:The gfs may be right on this one...

Yep, it appears the outlier model GFS hit this one on the head after the massive amounts of rainfall predicted have not come across so far.Maybe that GFS will be the hot model for the winter?

Watched Lee Goldberg and he mentioned the storm was very unusual in the split of the precip shield going to PA and out to sea, while we were in a major dry slot.Don't think I ever saw that scenario ever.As Frank said earlier, it would have been a major bust snowstorm scenario for the winter.Hope this gets it out of the way now.

We can only hope Doc and I heard this on two other news stations - it fooled all the major mets! Another curveball from Mother Nature.

I'm disappointed in myself for not studying the upper level pattern closer with this storm. Clearly with a High to the north and all the dry air in the Atlantic this year, the rain would not develop as models showed because the 600-900mb levels are dry. Further, another storm in the Atlantic was robbing this storm of energy. Oh well, you take and learn from it. Off to the next one.

Although parts of SNJ have 3+ inches of rain.