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February 2022 Obs & Discussions

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 04, 2022 11:31 am

TheAresian wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
TheAresian wrote:I'm at 17 measurable inches for the winter. The total with the number of snows that didn't cover the ground is maybe 19 or so. Seasonal average is supposed to be either 35 or 37 depending on which site I check. It's gonna take quite a few nickels and dimes to reach that.

Aresian I'm a bit surprised that your specific area averages < 40" per year, no actually shocked.  BGM NWS average is 82"/year and elevation in that area is > 1000' ASL on average.  I realize BGM sometimes gets enhanced snow from the Lakes, but I would think your area is at least 70" even being 70 miles west.

If the map violates some kind of rule let me know and I'll remove it. Either way, I live in the black circle. You can see I have some peculiar geography to deal with. I live in a sort of valley about 900' ASL on the Allegheny plateau. Systems coming from the west transfer off the coast. Systems that do well for you are too far east for me. Mountains to the north and northwest block enhancement from the Great Lakes. It takes an unusual storm track for me to jackpot. Either that or a storm like '93 where a good chunk of the eastern US was buried.

Oh wow so you are out there on teh frontier my man!! I have gone to Cayuga Lake a couple of times but you are past that brother.

February 2022 Obs & Discussions  - Page 2 Me10

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Post by TheAresian Fri Feb 04, 2022 12:05 pm

On the storm thread, sroc told me that I'm 250 miles from him as the crow flies. I'm about 22 miles SSW of the southern tip of Seneca Lake, the largest of the Finger Lakes. (Cayuga is longer, but Seneca is wider and deeper)

I had typed out a bunch more stuff but then deleted it because it ended up sounding like a tourism ad.

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 04, 2022 1:33 pm

Everyone will have their own opinions of the winter of 2021-22, but I believe this 12Z Euro surface map sums it up very well for interior folks.  

February 2022 Obs & Discussions  - Page 2 Winter10

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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 04, 2022 1:50 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Everyone will have their own opinions of the winter of 2021-22, but I believe this 12Z Euro surface map sums it up very well for interior folks.  

February 2022 Obs & Discussions  - Page 2 Winter10

I have been saying that since the first snowstorm in January, everything big going S and E of the HV NY.Let's see how the next 8 weeks, possible snow event time up here, plays out.My gut tells me this S and E pattern will play out the entire winter.

As the old Brooklyn Dodgers used to say....."wait until next year!",LOL.

PS..I hope I am all wrong,LOL.
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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 04, 2022 2:34 pm

26 degrees, precip went spotty a few hours ago and had turned to sleet, so even though we had some freezing rain, it was not the disaster it could have been with power outages in the 20's..Radar looks like just some spotty areas but the bulk is over.
Roads salted and clear here.

Just read a report most of Boston's 23.8 inches has melted away due to mild temps and heavy rains.( CP breaks into his happy dance,LOL).
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Post by SENJsnowman Fri Feb 04, 2022 2:35 pm

docstox12 wrote:

I have been saying that since the first snowstorm in January, everything big going S and E of the HV NY.Let's see how the next 8 weeks, possible snow event time up here, plays out.My gut tells me this S and E pattern will play out the entire winter.

As the old Brooklyn Dodgers used to say....."wait until next year!",LOL.

PS..I hope I am all wrong,LOL.

Doc, for the past 2-3 yrs you have been spotting and riding the storm track pattern to perfection. I'm thinking I started tuning in to it during that big bust winter 3 yrs ago, when the real pattern was that the future/imminent pattern flip never happened. By the time I caught on to that, it was like mid-Feb already and winter was just dead in the water.  But looking back on it, after the 2nd delay in the 'pattern flip', our real pattern had been established.

I still think a switch to a more inland track is inevitable, but obviously, I hope Doc's gut is right for this year. After the last three winters (totals imby I wanna say were 5", 6", and 16"), I have ZERO interest in a futures market for Jersey Shore snow...lol

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 04, 2022 2:41 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:
docstox12 wrote:

I have been saying that since the first snowstorm in January, everything big going S and E of the HV NY.Let's see how the next 8 weeks, possible snow event time up here, plays out.My gut tells me this S and E pattern will play out the entire winter.

As the old Brooklyn Dodgers used to say....."wait until next year!",LOL.

PS..I hope I am all wrong,LOL.

Doc, for the past 2-3 yrs you have been spotting and riding the storm track pattern to perfection. I'm thinking I started tuning in to it during that big bust winter 3 yrs ago, when the real pattern was that the future/imminent pattern flip never happened. By the time I caught on to that, it was like mid-Feb already and winter was just dead in the water.  But looking back on it, after the 2nd delay in the 'pattern flip', our real pattern had been established.

I still think a switch to a more inland track is inevitable, but obviously, I hope Doc's gut is right for this year. After the last three winters (totals imby I wanna say were 5", 6", and 16"), I have ZERO interest in a futures market for Jersey Shore snow...lol

There will be more chances from 2/10-2/20 as the cold will be established. I wouldn't be at all surprised if there is at least one more sig event down there before you close the curtains. AC snowfall record of 60" in a given season though I believe is safe.

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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 04, 2022 3:22 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:
docstox12 wrote:

I have been saying that since the first snowstorm in January, everything big going S and E of the HV NY.Let's see how the next 8 weeks, possible snow event time up here, plays out.My gut tells me this S and E pattern will play out the entire winter.

As the old Brooklyn Dodgers used to say....."wait until next year!",LOL.

PS..I hope I am all wrong,LOL.

Doc, for the past 2-3 yrs you have been spotting and riding the storm track pattern to perfection. I'm thinking I started tuning in to it during that big bust winter 3 yrs ago, when the real pattern was that the future/imminent pattern flip never happened. By the time I caught on to that, it was like mid-Feb already and winter was just dead in the water.  But looking back on it, after the 2nd delay in the 'pattern flip', our real pattern had been established.

I still think a switch to a more inland track is inevitable, but obviously, I hope Doc's gut is right for this year. After the last three winters (totals imby I wanna say were 5", 6", and 16"), I have ZERO interest in a futures market for Jersey Shore snow...lol

SE, I have been watching winters in the tri state since 1960-1961, purely observations, but patterns do repeat.That's how I make my living as a trader/investor by following "the trend is your friend!"....until it isn't, but it will give you clues.
You were due for a kick arse mean reversion and now you are collecting on it.So glad for that because your enthusiasm and loyalty to the board is outstanding. Heehaw is right, don't put away the snow shovel yet, until we north crew gets a big one, your still in play.
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 04, 2022 3:25 pm

Still 4 days out, but EPS is giving it a bit of interest.  It's showing signs of later development.  Maybe too late for most here, but for JC/E LI maybe not?

February 2022 Obs & Discussions  - Page 2 Eps41
February 2022 Obs & Discussions  - Page 2 Eps215

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 04, 2022 4:19 pm

Regarding 2/8 Canadian GEPS is showing similar to ^^^ Euro EPS FWIW.

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 04, 2022 5:12 pm

2/8 threat
18Z GFS is a hot mess with the energy, but there is a lot of it.  It really wouldn't take much to get the eastern areas in play with this. Plenty of time for adjustments with a better phasing of n/s energy to pull this hot mess inland. I'll be interested to see the ensembles.

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Post by SENJsnowman Fri Feb 04, 2022 7:49 pm

docstox12 wrote:
SENJsnowman wrote:
docstox12 wrote:

I have been saying that since the first snowstorm in January, everything big going S and E of the HV NY.Let's see how the next 8 weeks, possible snow event time up here, plays out.My gut tells me this S and E pattern will play out the entire winter.

As the old Brooklyn Dodgers used to say....."wait until next year!",LOL.

PS..I hope I am all wrong,LOL.

Doc, for the past 2-3 yrs you have been spotting and riding the storm track pattern to perfection. I'm thinking I started tuning in to it during that big bust winter 3 yrs ago, when the real pattern was that the future/imminent pattern flip never happened. By the time I caught on to that, it was like mid-Feb already and winter was just dead in the water.  But looking back on it, after the 2nd delay in the 'pattern flip', our real pattern had been established.

I still think a switch to a more inland track is inevitable, but obviously, I hope Doc's gut is right for this year. After the last three winters (totals imby I wanna say were 5", 6", and 16"), I have ZERO interest in a futures market for Jersey Shore snow...lol

SE, I have been watching winters in the tri state since 1960-1961, purely observations, but patterns do repeat.That's how I make my living as a trader/investor by following "the trend is your friend!"....until it isn't, but it will give you clues.
You were due for a kick arse mean reversion and now you are collecting on it. So glad for that because your enthusiasm and loyalty to the board is outstanding. Heehaw is right, don't put away the snow shovel yet, until we north crew gets a big one, your still in play.

Thanks so much for the kind words. I don't know much about how this weather stuff works, so all I really have to offer is some optimistic energy and corny stories! lol. These mets on here are not only superb weather folk, but they also give lessons daily on structured disciplined thinking and mature problem solving. Those qualities are especially refreshing to see since they are now freakishly scarce in society today. Add to that the deep and practical wisdom that seems to emanate from the whole LHV crew and the board makes the enthusiasm hard for me to resist.

And notice what else heehaw said about the maybe threat for next week. The exact same thing he's being saying all month (bless his heart for it too!): The coast has a shot...so the trend is still in firmly in place as of now...

And the 'trend is your friend...until it isn't'. I'm guessing, that's the rub in the trading world, right? Getting out before the 'until it isn't' comes to pass. You seem to have a very keenly trained eye for the early off-ramps.

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 04, 2022 8:35 pm

A storm be brewin' for 2/8 for eastern coastal folks.  As is usual practice this winter interior areas could be fringed.

Couple of issues
1/ boundary layers are marginal at the surface/low levels
2/ does it get close enough which will be based on phasing

If this can deepen more quickly it'll be able to offset that boundary layer issues especially in E LI.  Basically, if this n/s energy drops into the backside of the trough a few hours more quickly, then I think this could be a decent storm as you have a subtropical feed. That means this will be moist. Probably won't work out but it's interesting...

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 04, 2022 8:46 pm

Don't think issue will be with EC heights.  Note the pull of the through on this as it's sandwiched between two ridges.  Like I mentioned many times with progressive patterns (no high latitude blocking) all this stuff has minimal time to develop for our latitude.  It's got to be money right from the get go, otherwise it matures too late and becomes a GOM (Gulf of Maine) special. It's one of the main reason why I think interior folks will struggle to get anything but nickel and dime.

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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 05, 2022 6:50 am

heehaw453 wrote:A storm be brewin' for 2/8 for eastern coastal folks.  As is usual practice this winter interior areas could be fringed.

Couple of issues
1/ boundary layers are marginal at the surface/low levels
2/ does it get close enough which will be based on phasing

If this can deepen more quickly it'll be able to offset that boundary layer issues especially in E LI.  Basically, if this n/s energy drops into the backside of the trough a few hours more quickly, then I think this could be a decent storm as you have a subtropical feed. That means this will be moist.  Probably won't work out but it's interesting...

February 2022 Obs & Discussions  - Page 2 Euro54

In general the track as been trending fairly favorable for myself and my Suffolk county and coastal crew, (on or just outside the bench mark), to sneak in some QPF here, but looks like not only boundary/surface layers marginal, but mid levels look like garbage as well.  There is a southerly surge of air out of the deep southeast Atlantic at 925-850 as the Low forms off the Carolina coast line.  Like you said the timing of the n/s just isnt there.  Im becoming more optimistic at perhaps seeing 0.3-0.5"(+/-) of QPF but I am not optimistic it will fall in the form of snow.  Ill give it another day or two because the antecedent air mass is pretty cold, but this as a snow threat is waning fast for me.  I need to see that low trend stronger to drag in the cold air quicker into the mid levels.




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Post by SENJsnowman Sat Feb 05, 2022 7:24 am

Watch out today y’all. That black ice looks bad by me, And I imagine it’s worse the more north you go.

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 05, 2022 8:16 am

sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:A storm be brewin' for 2/8 for eastern coastal folks.  As is usual practice this winter interior areas could be fringed.

Couple of issues
1/ boundary layers are marginal at the surface/low levels
2/ does it get close enough which will be based on phasing

If this can deepen more quickly it'll be able to offset that boundary layer issues especially in E LI.  Basically, if this n/s energy drops into the backside of the trough a few hours more quickly, then I think this could be a decent storm as you have a subtropical feed. That means this will be moist.  Probably won't work out but it's interesting...

February 2022 Obs & Discussions  - Page 2 Euro54

In general the track as been trending fairly favorable for myself and my Suffolk county and coastal crew, (on or just outside the bench mark), to sneak in some QPF here, but looks like not only boundary/surface layers marginal, but mid levels look like garbage as well.  There is a southerly surge of air out of the deep southeast Atlantic at 925-850 as the Low forms off the Carolina coast line.  Like you said the timing of the n/s just isnt there.  Im becoming more optimistic at perhaps seeing 0.3-0.5"(+/-) of QPF but I am not optimistic it will fall in the form of snow.  Ill give it another day or two because the antecedent air mass is pretty cold, but this as a snow threat is waning fast for me.  I need to see that low trend stronger to drag in the cold air quicker into the mid levels.  




Yeah I'd say a no go on this one. I think due to progressive pattern coupled with marginal air mass makes this very untenable. If a good antecedent air mass was in place then you'd have potential for several inches IMO.

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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 05, 2022 10:04 am

Antecedent air mass should have been much better. Less than 24 hrs out all levels are plenty cold. But the cold air gets kicked out like a crumb being flicked off the kitchen table. It is what it is.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Feb 05, 2022 11:43 am

low of 22 this morning..currently 27 with winds out of the nw @18 we had a couple of gusts almost 30..can see the whitecaps in the bay this morning.
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 05, 2022 1:22 pm

2/8 system cannot rule out a c-1" for NW of 95. Will be fringed most likely as this develops too late, but good enough boundary layer may provide a path to some snow. A slightly earlier n/s drop in to the backside of the trough brings this closer and more of a threat.

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Post by dkodgis Sun Feb 06, 2022 6:54 am

3 degrees waking up. Still ice-coated trees. If I ever figure out how to post a few pictures, I will put those in the 4th thread before it gets locked. It’s 12 degrees warmer in Buffalo right now.
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Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 06, 2022 7:11 am

6 degrees ,clear calm wind and 6 inches of concrete on the ground.Same here, Damian, trees ice covered as well.Maybe a little snow early this week but temps getting to around 40 as the week progresses.Think this will be a below average snow year here, lack of southern energy to phase and progressive pattern are the causes.
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 06, 2022 7:22 am

Hit 9 degrees with snowfall only in piles. Good radiational cooling.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 06, 2022 9:49 am

It’s cold as heck out

Wish we had something to track. Still thinking there’s a SB/Val storm lurking…

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Post by amugs Sun Feb 06, 2022 6:39 pm

Watch this freezing drizzle verify tomorrow morning and catch everyone off-guard.

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