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Front-End Thump of Snow WED 1/25

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 23, 2023 8:53 am

It feels like Wednesday's storm trended a bit colder (or maybe just faster which helps with precip type) and it has the potential to bring accumulating snow to a widespread area. Here are a couple of frames from the 06z NAM - 1pm and 4pm.

Front-End Thump of Snow WED 1/25 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_44

Front-End Thump of Snow WED 1/25 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_45

The same time stamps but looking at surface temps. Notice where the 32-degree line is.

Front-End Thump of Snow WED 1/25 Namconus_T2m_neus_45

Front-End Thump of Snow WED 1/25 Namconus_T2m_neus_46

After 4pm, temperatures begin to rise for pretty much everyone. At some point, everyone will changeover from snow to rain. The coast will obviously changeover to rain quicker than N&W. The EURO and GFS are warmer than the NAM. Given how this winter has gone, I would probably go with the warmer than colder scenario. We're lacking a HP to our north. So not much of a mechanism to keep our cold air in place.

NYC probably looking at a C to 1" (C-0.5" likely)

NNJ, especially central/west looking at C-2"

Well N&W of NYC could receive a few inches. Not thinking more than 3".

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Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 23, 2023 9:03 am

Sounds right Frank.NWS has me for 3 to 5 but the way the storms have been going, will be happy to get the 3.Anyway, something to track.
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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 23, 2023 9:53 am

Frank Im not sure Id say no HP.  In fact quite the opposite.  We do have an HP on approach from the system, but its more of a question of how quickly will; it retreat.  In the modeling at least the trend seems to be the colder solns.  The later in the season the harder it is to scour out the cold.  On top of that todays system is ushering in "colder" air so antecedent air mass will be in place.  Cant really argue with anything else in the write up regarding who sees what, and timing of changeover beginning at the coast and eventually most of the area changes over eventually.  

Front-End Thump of Snow WED 1/25 Gfs_ref_frzn_us_9
Front-End Thump of Snow WED 1/25 Namconus_ref_frzn_us_39

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.25"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 23, 2023 10:01 am

The H means business.  You are getting a finger signature for WAA which is indicative of intense rates of snow.  Whoever gets into those good rates is going to get 5" of snow out of this.  That H is straight out of the Northwest Territories and I don't think it's sliding anywhere too quickly. It's also in an ideal spot for this.

Front-End Thump of Snow WED 1/25 Finger10

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 23, 2023 11:12 am

There’s an HP…I don’t particularly like what it does once the storm begins it’s transfer to the coast. But yes I misspoke, there’s definitely an HP and it’s helping with keeping cold in place at the onset.

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 23, 2023 1:24 pm

My concern for this event is where the best lift sets up. We aren't going to know that until almost game time, but probably tomorrow models start to narrow the goal posts a bit.  For now just have to wait.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Jan 23, 2023 11:44 pm

This started out as a hope and a prayer but as my untrained eye peruses tonight’s maps this looks to be more of the same horse crap we’ve had since beginning of December.

A front end inch or two, if it even amounts to that and for most it probably won’t, just isn’t going to cut it.

I should add this isn’t a knock at Heehaw who has been Absolutely relentless tracking every frustrating event we have had this fruitless season. It’s just a frustrating knock at what use to be Winter.
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Post by brownie Tue Jan 24, 2023 6:30 am

Morris County has a Winter Weather Advisory for Wednesday. NWS says 1-2 inches of snow for me, then changing to rain. High temp predicted to be 37°F on Wednesday, then staying there overnight.

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Post by docstox12 Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:00 am

Wonder if CPK will get any measurable snow out of this.What is it, Jan 28th the record for no measurable snow?
NWS sticking with 3-5 total for me out of this.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:44 am

docstox12 wrote:Wonder if CPK will get any measurable snow out of this.What is it, Jan 28th the record for no measurable snow?
NWS sticking with 3-5 total for me out of this.
I am making a gentlemans bet that we shatter that record into feb.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:46 am

And it just keeps trending warmer with each run.

I’m done with this one, 2-3 inches of snow followed by more cold rain does not a winter make.

Winter weather advisory in Orange County and western Passaic for 2-5 inches. Not if the trends continue.
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:38 am

Agree with CP. This WAA snow is not looking as impressive. The shot was always the front end due to the storm trajectory.  Looks like 1-3" well NW of I95 (probably at least 40 miles) away and C-1 around the I95 and Trace coastal plain.  The CPK may be broken and this winter would be the one to do it.

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:41 am

docstox12 wrote:Wonder if CPK will get any measurable snow out of this.What is it, Jan 28th the record for no measurable snow?
NWS sticking with 3-5 total for me out of this.
Need to pass January 29th. I'd put the probability at 60% this one doesn't produce measurable snowfall.

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Post by docstox12 Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:46 am

heehaw453 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:Wonder if CPK will get any measurable snow out of this.What is it, Jan 28th the record for no measurable snow?
NWS sticking with 3-5 total for me out of this.
Need to pass January 29th. I'd put the probability at 60% this one doesn't produce measurable snowfall.

Roger that heehaw.Yesterday, you were spot on up here.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:58 am

Even if it does snow a couple of tenths of an inch in Central Park tomorrow I have my doubts whether the current team that is in charge of measuring snow in the city actually records it. If last year was any indication they are back to their old ways and either not measuring snowfall amounts less than an inch in the park, or just botching up the measurements entirely with larger amounts and always on the low side.
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:31 am

The temps aren't the issue with this threat.  It's the lift is too far off to the west.  Your 700mb vorticity is telling me this is going to be too far NW for a lot of folks.  Pretty much above that line is where you want to be to have a chance for 5"+.  Earlier models were putting that further down towards NJ.  So if the NAM is right 1-3" NW NJ, LHV and have to go to route 81 and Catskills/Poconos for 5"+ opportunity. I'll say the further NW in Orange County you go the closer to 4-5" you will be be.  Could be SE areas see 2" and NW areas see 5" kind of thing in Orange County. This is what the models are starting to lock into so I don't see big changes.  For those on the coastal plain and I95 chalk this up to yet another disappoint in a long laundry list of them this season. It's remarkable how Mother Nature just doesn't want snow to fall in that area.

Front-End Thump of Snow WED 1/25 Nam70011

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Post by phil155 Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:41 am

am hoping our luck will change and we can get at least 1 good solid storm, all it takes is one big storm to turn this winter from a let down to a winner in terms of snowfall

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Post by mikeypizano Tue Jan 24, 2023 10:26 am

phil155 wrote: am hoping our luck will change and we can get at least 1 good solid storm, all it takes is one big storm to turn this winter from a let down to a winner in terms of snowfall

Nope, won't make any difference to me at this point. One storm does not make a winter.
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 24, 2023 11:04 am

The GFS still refuses to correct at 12Z little over 24 hours out.  

Front-End Thump of Snow WED 1/25 Gfs70010

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Post by phil155 Tue Jan 24, 2023 11:23 am

mikeypizano wrote:
phil155 wrote: am hoping our luck will change and we can get at least 1 good solid storm, all it takes is one big storm to turn this winter from a let down to a winner in terms of snowfall

Nope, won't make any difference to me at this point. One storm does not make a winter.


I was thinking in terms of total snowfall and not the overall winter

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Post by docstox12 Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:05 pm

phil155 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
phil155 wrote: am hoping our luck will change and we can get at least 1 good solid storm, all it takes is one big storm to turn this winter from a let down to a winner in terms of snowfall

Nope, won't make any difference to me at this point. One storm does not make a winter.


I was thinking in terms of total snowfall and not the overall winter

Winter '94-'95 ran like this one but we had a 12 inch snowstorm that February.That was pretty much it that year.
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Post by phil155 Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:18 pm

docstox12 wrote:
phil155 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
phil155 wrote: am hoping our luck will change and we can get at least 1 good solid storm, all it takes is one big storm to turn this winter from a let down to a winner in terms of snowfall

Nope, won't make any difference to me at this point. One storm does not make a winter.


I was thinking in terms of total snowfall and not the overall winter

Winter '94-'95 ran like this one but we had a 12 inch snowstorm that February.That was pretty much it that year.

And of course the year after that was a historic winter, maybe this is a precursor to a repeat of that historic winter of 95-96 next year. We are over due for it imho and one can dream

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Post by frank 638 Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:44 pm

Honestly I think nyc will continue with the snow drought .if we do see snow it’s not going to stick .what a big Disappointment

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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:35 pm

Do you think we will beat the 5 flakes that we had here in Hazlet tomorrow? drunken
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:43 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:Do you think we will beat the 5 flakes that we had here in Hazlet tomorrow?  drunken
Lol you will get your 5 flakes but they may come in a short window  

white flag white flag white flag

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