Re: May 2023 Observations and Discussion

by **dkodgis** Thu May 18, 2023 6:09 am

Doc, same temp here. Same with heat.

by **Dunnzoo** Thu May 18, 2023 8:31 am

Got down to 39* here, a little chilly, but already to 51* at 8:30

by **amugs** Thu May 18, 2023 9:27 am

Dunnzoo wrote:Got down to 39* here, a little chilly, but already to 51* at 8:30

That's it??
I got down to 35*!!

Heat on all morning at school - as per custodians and their logbook on the boilers this is the latest the heat has been on in the building. They told me they have no record of this in the last 10 years having to fire up the boilers this late in the season and the one custodian has been here since 1988 and said he can't remember it being this late.

by **amugs** Thu May 18, 2023 9:40 am

Daily Temperature Record Set!
May 18, 2020
Temperature across Sussex County fell to as low as 25° breaking the old daily record of 29°, which was established in 1955, and also 1983.
Some morning lows:
Walpack 25°
Sandyston 27°
Wantage 27°
Sparta 28°
Sussex 28°
Lafayette 29°

by **jmanley32** Thu May 18, 2023 9:51 am

Hey all, does Sat look like a complete washout? I see models showing what looks like rain moving in in the afternoon not so much early. I am trying to plan my garage sale hunting if I can get out or not. Likely if it will even rain by say mid morning people won't go out. Thanks dunzoo for the inside tip, are you guys still holding yours?

by **aiannone** Thu May 18, 2023 10:02 am

Low of 35.1* here on the island this morning. 20's out in the pine barrens. Quick warmup after sunrise though.

by **weatherwatchermom** Thu May 18, 2023 10:31 am

We got down to 45 *this morning..I took in tom plants last night .

by **sroc4** Thu May 18, 2023 12:57 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Hey all, does Sat look like a complete washout? I see models showing what looks like rain moving in in the afternoon not so much early. I am trying to plan my garage sale hunting if I can get out or not. Likely if it will even rain by say mid morning people won't go out. Thanks dunzoo for the inside tip, are you guys still holding yours?

Looks to me that rain moves in between 7am-10am depending on where you live. Euro, GFS, and 3K NAM bring it to most of LI. 12K NAM on the other hand keeps it all offshore.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/neng/total_precip_inch/1684411200/1684713600-cu3Q4R8qdx8.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/neng/total_precip_inch/1684389600/1684713600-CqUotpX2qbg.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest/neng/total_precip_inch/1684411200/1684627200-p9Bf8FQNiIU.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/neng/total_precip_inch/1684411200/1684713600-BOLr02JmVgc.png

by **amugs** Thu May 18, 2023 1:01 pm

Map won't load sory folks tried all I know and this site won't allow it to load.

No heat on this map - normal to slightly bn temps 70's and low 80's at most on average

by **jmanley32** Thu May 18, 2023 4:02 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Hey all, does Sat look like a complete washout? I see models showing what looks like rain moving in in the afternoon not so much early. I am trying to plan my garage sale hunting if I can get out or not. Likely if it will even rain by say mid morning people won't go out. Thanks dunzoo for the inside tip, are you guys still holding yours?

Looks to me that rain moves in between 7am-10am depending on where you live. Euro, GFS, and 3K NAM bring it to most of LI. 12K NAM on the other hand keeps it all offshore.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/neng/total_precip_inch/1684411200/1684713600-cu3Q4R8qdx8.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/neng/total_precip_inch/1684389600/1684713600-CqUotpX2qbg.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest/neng/total_precip_inch/1684411200/1684627200-p9Bf8FQNiIU.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/neng/total_precip_inch/1684411200/1684713600-BOLr02JmVgc.png

SoI am going to NJ looks like most the rain won't impact NJ, specifically either paramus or middletown. What you you think about those 2 areas? Neither look to get much, CT looks like a washout.

by **amugs** Fri May 19, 2023 8:21 am

42* here this morning - heat on is school again.

by **Dunnzoo** Fri May 19, 2023 8:43 am

amugs wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:Got down to 39* here, a little chilly, but already to 51* at 8:30

That's it??
I got down to 35*!!

Heat on all morning at school - as per custodians and their logbook on the boilers this is the latest the heat has been on in the building. They told me they have no record of this in the last 10 years having to fire up the boilers this late in the season and the one custodian has been here since 1988 and said he can't remember it being this late.

Hey mugs,

Now that I am in an apartment, my temps may be a tad higher than yours until I get approval to put my weather station on the grounds away from the building. Right now it's on my balcony, so we'll see what I get when I move it.

by **Dunnzoo** Fri May 19, 2023 8:45 am

jmanley32 wrote:Hey all, does Sat look like a complete washout? I see models showing what looks like rain moving in in the afternoon not so much early. I am trying to plan my garage sale hunting if I can get out or not. Likely if it will even rain by say mid morning people won't go out. Thanks dunzoo for the inside tip, are you guys still holding yours?

Yes, we are going to still try and have it. Looks like rain will be later in the day and we really need to get rid of stuff. I will PM you mom's address in case you come, she should be on the map. I'm glad I am giving up on my Mets tickets for tomorrow (4:00 game) as there will most likely be rain delays. The weather has not been kind for baseball!

by **amugs** Fri May 19, 2023 10:25 am

Dunnzoo wrote:
amugs wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:Got down to 39* here, a little chilly, but already to 51* at 8:30

That's it??
I got down to 35*!!

Heat on all morning at school - as per custodians and their logbook on the boilers this is the latest the heat has been on in the building. They told me they have no record of this in the last 10 years having to fire up the boilers this late in the season and the one custodian has been here since 1988 and said he can't remember it being this late.

Hey mugs,

Now that I am in an apartment, my temps may be a tad higher than yours until I get approval to put my weather station on the grounds away from the building. Right now it's on my balcony, so we'll see what I get when I move it.

Zoo,
Thats right you moved. Sorry an dyes it definitely will have an effect in the mini UHI of an apt building.

42* this morning.

by **Dunnzoo** Fri May 19, 2023 10:36 am

amugs wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:
amugs wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:Got down to 39* here, a little chilly, but already to 51* at 8:30

That's it??
I got down to 35*!!

Heat on all morning at school - as per custodians and their logbook on the boilers this is the latest the heat has been on in the building. They told me they have no record of this in the last 10 years having to fire up the boilers this late in the season and the one custodian has been here since 1988 and said he can't remember it being this late.

Hey mugs,

Now that I am in an apartment, my temps may be a tad higher than yours until I get approval to put my weather station on the grounds away from the building. Right now it's on my balcony, so we'll see what I get when I move it.

Zoo,
Thats right you moved. Sorry an dyes it definitely will have an effect in the mini UHI of an apt building.

42* this morning.

Closer... 43* this morning lol

by **jmanley32** Sat May 20, 2023 3:25 am

Dunnzoo wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Hey all, does Sat look like a complete washout? I see models showing what looks like rain moving in in the afternoon not so much early. I am trying to plan my garage sale hunting if I can get out or not. Likely if it will even rain by say mid morning people won't go out. Thanks dunzoo for the inside tip, are you guys still holding yours?

Yes, we are going to still try and have it. Looks like rain will be later in the day and we really need to get rid of stuff. I will PM you mom's address in case you come, she should be on the map. I'm glad I am giving up on my Mets tickets for tomorrow (4:00 game) as there will most likely be rain delays. The weather has not been kind for baseball!

Not sure why you say later, looks like it moves in at least 3km nam and most hourly forecasts by what scott said 7-10am. I probably am not going to risk wasting tolls as I see rain progressing north already froun just along the jersey shore. and NWS just ramped up rain totals alot now giving yonkers and far coastal NJ almost 2 inches. ugg

by **amugs** Sat May 20, 2023 9:44 pm

Hybrid System next Saturday into Sunday possibly.

May 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Image_23

May 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Image_24

by **dkodgis** Sat May 20, 2023 11:27 pm

Tonight the rain gauge has a half-inch in it. Suits me. I got all the grass seed and hay down yesterday in anticipation of the rain.

by **rb924119** Wed May 24, 2023 1:36 pm

At a quick glance, I’ve got some pretty loud alarm bells ringing for something tropical/sub-tropical along the Eastern Seaboard developing during the period from late next week (Thursday-ish) through early the following week (Tuesday-ish). This requires some deeper digging on my end, but as of right now, this period should be watched very closely. Very closely.

by **sroc4** Thu May 25, 2023 7:22 pm

rb924119 wrote:At a quick glance, I’ve got some pretty loud alarm bells ringing for something tropical/sub-tropical along the Eastern Seaboard developing during the period from late next week (Thursday-ish) through early the following week (Tuesday-ish). This requires some deeper digging on my end, but as of right now, this period should be watched very closely. Very closely.

May 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Two_atl_2d0

by **rb924119** Thu May 25, 2023 7:55 pm

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:At a quick glance, I’ve got some pretty loud alarm bells ringing for something tropical/sub-tropical along the Eastern Seaboard developing during the period from late next week (Thursday-ish) through early the following week (Tuesday-ish). This requires some deeper digging on my end, but as of right now, this period should be watched very closely. Very closely.

Too soon, brother - I mean the next Thursday through following Tuesday(ish) period haha so basically the period from like June 1st through June 6th, or so. That’s when we’ll have to watch. And I might need to shift it later, more like the 4th-8th/9th. But I have to dig deeper and see if it’s legit or not. One thing is for sure, though, this upcoming pattern would be epic in winter…….too bad we are only 180° out of phase lol Brick

by **rb924119** Sat May 27, 2023 1:01 pm

rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:At a quick glance, I’ve got some pretty loud alarm bells ringing for something tropical/sub-tropical along the Eastern Seaboard developing during the period from late next week (Thursday-ish) through early the following week (Tuesday-ish). This requires some deeper digging on my end, but as of right now, this period should be watched very closely. Very closely.

Too soon, brother - I mean the next Thursday through following Tuesday(ish) period haha so basically the period from like June 1st through June 6th, or so. That’s when we’ll have to watch. And I might need to shift it later, more like the 4th-8th/9th. But I have to dig deeper and see if it’s legit or not. One thing is for sure, though, this upcoming pattern would be epic in winter…….too bad we are only 180° out of phase lol

I’ll probably have a discussion on this at some point this weekend. Models are going to struggle with this, but the more I look at this, the more confident I am getting, and I think the models may be trying to catch on too.

by **amugs** Sat May 27, 2023 6:52 pm

Of you want heat it ain't happening anytime soon with this map.

May 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Image_25

by **amugs** Sun May 28, 2023 4:15 pm

Rb, ths maybe your storm brother. Love to hear insight.

May 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Fxj0uu10

by **rb924119** Sun May 28, 2023 10:05 pm

amugs wrote:Rb, ths maybe your storm brother. Love to hear insight.

....maybe

by **rb924119** Sun May 28, 2023 11:14 pm

I'm working on my analysis now. I don't think I'll get the video discussion cut tonight, but I'm developing the following main ideas and building my discussion:

1. The period of interest is from ~4th June through ~9th June.
2. I think tropical/sub-tropical development is LIKELY in the areas of the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the far western Atlantic (along/east of Florida Peninsula).
3. I think there will actually be two storms, but our attention should be paid to the second of the two; the first will likely develop slightly earlier than the one that I'm interested in, probably during the ~2nd-~4th timeframe and will slide harmlessly out to sea (though Bermuda should pay attention for a tropical/sub-tropical cyclone).
4. I DO NOT think that we will see a direct landfall in our area, but a near miss is likely, in my opinion, with the greatest risk of effects for coastal locations. East-central and northern New England stand a more significant chance of seeing a landfall (i.e. from Massachusetts eastward).
5. I think maximum intensity that we would be dealing with at our latitude would be a mid- to high-end tropical storm (or subtropical storm equivalent). I DO NOT think that we will see hurricane intensity.

This is a VERY difficult forecast with a lot of moving parts, so a lot can go wrong haha but, the more I look at this, the more confident I feel that I am at least on the right track.

by **rb924119** Sun May 28, 2023 11:59 pm

I've decided to put my final discussion together tomorrow - there's a lot I want to cover, and I really don't feel like staying up until 3am to do it tonight and get it uploaded haha But the above points provide the framework and most important headlines for now. I'll see what the overnight runs look like in the morning, but I am not anticipating that they will change my thinking right now. I'm sure that the operational runs will probably still be wildly different than today's runs, but the ensembles shouldn't be, and that's all I care about. Good night, all Smile

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