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May 2023 Observations and Discussion

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May 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: May 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by rb924119 Sun May 28, 2023 11:14 pm

I'm working on my analysis now. I don't think I'll get the video discussion cut tonight, but I'm developing the following main ideas and building my discussion:

1. The period of interest is from ~4th June through ~9th June.
2. I think tropical/sub-tropical development is LIKELY in the areas of the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the far western Atlantic (along/east of Florida Peninsula).
3. I think there will actually be two storms, but our attention should be paid to the second of the two; the first will likely develop slightly earlier than the one that I'm interested in, probably during the ~2nd-~4th timeframe and will slide harmlessly out to sea (though Bermuda should pay attention for a tropical/sub-tropical cyclone).
4. I DO NOT think that we will see a direct landfall in our area, but a near miss is likely, in my opinion, with the greatest risk of effects for coastal locations. East-central and northern New England stand a more significant chance of seeing a landfall (i.e. from Massachusetts eastward).
5. I think maximum intensity that we would be dealing with at our latitude would be a mid- to high-end tropical storm (or subtropical storm equivalent). I DO NOT think that we will see hurricane intensity.

This is a VERY difficult forecast with a lot of moving parts, so a lot can go wrong haha but, the more I look at this, the more confident I feel that I am at least on the right track.

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May 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: May 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by rb924119 Sun May 28, 2023 11:59 pm

I've decided to put my final discussion together tomorrow - there's a lot I want to cover, and I really don't feel like staying up until 3am to do it tonight and get it uploaded haha But the above points provide the framework and most important headlines for now. I'll see what the overnight runs look like in the morning, but I am not anticipating that they will change my thinking right now. I'm sure that the operational runs will probably still be wildly different than today's runs, but the ensembles shouldn't be, and that's all I care about. Good night, all Smile

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May 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: May 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by Dunnzoo Mon May 29, 2023 9:51 am

amugs wrote:Of you want heat it ain't happening anytime soon with this map. 

May 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Image_25

I'll take it! Heading to Alaska this weekend! Very Happy

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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May 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: May 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by rb924119 Mon May 29, 2023 4:05 pm

Videos are cut. First one came out good, reviewing the second one now. If that is good as well, I will start the upload process. Videos should be rendered by this evening, at which point I will post them Smile

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Post by rb924119 Mon May 29, 2023 5:35 pm

Ok, gang, here are the links to my discussion:

1. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1FA3YyHi2TkIH3EHo00ysQpIb1q4zsw1s/view?usp=sharing

2. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1RbjifUwDbP5ANuFZ4V28g3EW0RCxeqYy/view?usp=sharing

The first video is a discussion of the reasons why I believe development of a storm is likely to occur, in my opinion, and the second video details my thoughts of the evolution of the weather pattern, its effects on the eventual track of the storm, and what I think the relative intensity of the storm will be. One thing that I didn't mention in the video is the fact that the PNA ridge axis across Canada and the West-central U.S. sets up a little too far east for us to see a direct landfall, as it helps to align the whole retrogression of the trough(s) and interaction a bit too far to the east for that. However, that is why I am favoring northern New England and/or Nova Scotia for a landfall.

I hope that you all enjoy the discussions, and if you have any questions, or comments that you'd like to add, please feel free to ask/add to the discussion Smile thanks for watching!

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May 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: May 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by Dunnzoo Mon May 29, 2023 6:52 pm

rb924119 wrote:Ok, gang, here are the links to my discussion:

1. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1FA3YyHi2TkIH3EHo00ysQpIb1q4zsw1s/view?usp=sharing

2. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1RbjifUwDbP5ANuFZ4V28g3EW0RCxeqYy/view?usp=sharing

The first video is a discussion of the reasons why I believe development of a storm is likely to occur, in my opinion, and the second video details my thoughts of the evolution of the weather pattern, its effects on the eventual track of the storm, and what I think the relative intensity of the storm will be. One thing that I didn't mention in the video is the fact that the PNA ridge axis across Canada and the West-central U.S. sets up a little too far east for us to see a direct landfall, as it helps to align the whole retrogression of the trough(s) and interaction a bit too far to the east for that. However, that is why I am favoring northern New England and/or Nova Scotia for a landfall.

I hope that you all enjoy the discussions, and if you have any questions, or comments that you'd like to add, please feel free to ask/add to the discussion Smile thanks for watching!

Thanks rb! I guess there will be more trouble for cruise lines in the Atlantic that week. A Carnival cruise ship ran into trouble the other day with the coastal that hit the Carolinas. Glad I'll be cruising in Alaska's inner passage and not here!

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Janet

Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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May 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: May 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by dkodgis Tue May 30, 2023 9:00 am

Apart from a couple of hot days this week, and the storm next week, temps seem so unseasonable
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Post by dkodgis Tue May 30, 2023 9:00 am

and for a while
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May 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: May 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by sroc4 Tue May 30, 2023 10:25 am

rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:At a quick glance, I’ve got some pretty loud alarm bells ringing for something tropical/sub-tropical along the Eastern Seaboard developing during the period from late next week (Thursday-ish) through early the following week (Tuesday-ish). This requires some deeper digging on my end, but as of right now, this period should be watched very closely. Very closely.

May 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Two_atl_2d0

Too soon, brother - I mean the next Thursday through following Tuesday(ish) period haha so basically the period from like June 1st through June 6th, or so. That’s when we’ll have to watch. And I might need to shift it later, more like the 4th-8th/9th. But I have to dig deeper and see if it’s legit or not. One thing is for sure, though, this upcoming pattern would be epic in winter…….too bad we are only 180° out of phase lol Brick GFS Model Tired Mad

Maybe too soon for what you're looking at but mother nature, and the NHC, didnt seem to think so. Was just pointing out the color.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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May 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: May 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by rb924119 Tue May 30, 2023 5:33 pm

At least I know that I’m not entirely crazy 🙂

May 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Img_1616

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May 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: May 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by frank 638 Tue May 30, 2023 8:59 pm

Did anyone notice the smell of smoke from the wild fires

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Post by dkodgis Tue May 30, 2023 9:13 pm

Yes it is up here
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Post by rb924119 Wed May 31, 2023 12:24 pm

Models seem to be trending 🙂 they’re still having issues resolving which pieces of energy to focus on, but that’s ok. The main players are all showing up on the bird, and they are all trending in a favorable direction. That’s all I need to see to see at this stage.

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Post by amugs Wed May 31, 2023 2:55 pm

44* for my low this morning!!!

Saturday temp change from 90* on Friday is going to be unreal!! Welcome to the Grand Solar Minimum as we get more n more extreme.


Temp Anamoly
May 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 FxeO9ykWABInwd9?format=jpg&name=medium

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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