2023 Atlantic Tropics season

Breezy to windy condition from the pressure gradiant and Lee's expansive wind field

amugs wrote:Breezy to windy condition from the pressure gradiant and Lee's expansive wind field

I can confirm the gusty winds in eastern, CT already and he is not even at our latitude yet. Thanks for everyones analysis and this on has been a long but fun tracker, looks like the next one is to be with the fishes but we did have some fantasy land runs that hit the area, doubtful.

Beach Erosion taking place along Jersey Shore - pics from Storm Force on X
Yesterday


Today


Anyone down the shore confirm??

amugs wrote:Beach Erosion taking place along Jersey Shore - pics from Storm Force on X
Yesterday


Today


Anyone down the shore confirm??

wow the storm is far away and is causing this much damage

Thanks for all the kind words, folks. I’ll follow up later, but I don’t think we are done with the tropics. Days 6-9 (September 22nd-25th) need to be watched for a storm/hybrid to develop along the Southeast coast and ride northward along/near/just inside the Eastern Seaboard.

And we may not be done beyond that…..but I’d have to look much deeper. And, let’s focus on one thing at a time; it’s easier to keep things organized that way haha

RB there better not be a hurricane on the 22nd...LOL NO NO NO

rb924119 wrote:Thanks for all the kind words, folks. I’ll follow up later, but I don’t think we are done with the tropics. Days 6-9 (September 22nd-25th) need to be watched for a storm/hybrid to develop along the Southeast coast and ride northward along/near/just inside the Eastern Seaboard.

Yup, saw tht on GFS and Euro, looks fairly weak but will be watching for what happens. Great job again and keep us posted on future storms that peak your interest.

I thought this was kinda funny, looks like a goulish face.

When was the last time the forum had 20 pages done for a storm that made land fall outside the U.S.

rb924119 wrote:Thanks for all the kind words, folks. I’ll follow up later, but I don’t think we are done with the tropics. Days 6-9 (September 22nd-25th) need to be watched for a storm/hybrid to develop along the Southeast coast and ride northward along/near/just inside the Eastern Seaboard.

Now I see it.

Looks like the system for possible close in development at best becomes a depression and causes some moderate rainfall and breezy conditions over the weekend per GFS or Sun/Mon on Euro. Of course this is subject to change and that's IF anything develops at all, def worth keeping a eye on but does not seem like anything to be majorly concerned about. Bastardi feels that any storms coming off Africa will all recurve well before the US, even east of Bermuda.

Are we going to track this potential storm here or in Sept. observations? Seems to me this will be mainly a potentially big rain event with flash flooding possible and some moderate winds. With how saturated the ground is and with that much more rain forecasted on models it won't take much to uproot trees so I do expect possible outages with this, not widespread but could be a issue. Will be a crummy weekend here nonetheless, good time to stay in and clean up and in my case beef up my ebay store for the holiday shoppers! One tactic is to be prepared for specific days millions of people will be inside shopping online, storms is one of many days. I fully expect such this weekend and increased sales crossing fingers. baby girl needs her dance and after school care paid for.

Jon go Sept Obs. If it goes tropical we will transition back here

TS Philippe has been one heck of a rollercoaster ride, his track has been nothing but chaos and huge track changes now suddenly he is a threat to maine amd cape copd, I would keep a eye on this possibly.

Can anybody chime in on Tammy? Daughter on honeymoon in St Maarten!!! How bad/long will it be? Since it’s not really going to effect the states, very little coverage

Snowprincess0204 wrote:Can anybody chime in on Tammy? Daughter on honeymoon in St Maarten!!! How bad/long will it be? Since it’s not really going to effect the states, very little coverage

When are they coming home? The current forecast shows Tammy becoming a hurricane in that area by Saturday afternoon. Some of the models do keep the eye barely east of the islands though, so hopefully no direct landfalls on any islands.

Not due home til Tues. should they consider coming home?

Snowprincess0204 wrote:Not due home til Tues. should they consider coming home?

Latest Euro and GFS take the eye no closer than 75-100miles east of St Maarten; strength wise looks between a strong Trop strom to strong Cat 1 as it passes their latitude. These image are for Sat am.





That said a couple of the hurricane models take it very close to right over but on weaker side of thing's, while others also have it pass to the east as well. Bottom line is exact track still looks like there are some kinks to iron out.





I guess my advise would be based on:
a) Where are they staying? In a solid sound structure like a Marriot etc
b) West side vs east side of the island, and the proximity to the ocean regarding surge potential
c) Need to watch the rain and flooding potential relative to where they are staying etc
d) How late can they pull the trigger to come home and finally...
e) Their sense of adventure.

Persoanlly my gut tells me this stays far enough

French side. Sonesta Ocean Point resort. Looks like southwest side of island

Snowprincess0204 wrote:French side. Sonesta Ocean Point resort. Looks like southwest side of island

As long as it stays east that seems to be the lee side of the island for this storm. Id say "probably" will be just fine, but again looks like modeling still not formed a consensus yet.

Latest 12z GFS wind gusts and swath