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2023 Atlantic Tropics season

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Frank_Wx
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Joe Snow
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Post by amugs Fri Sep 15, 2023 9:31 am

Breezy to windy condition from the pressure gradiant and Lee's expansive wind field

2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 20 F6EImI8WAAEfx-3?format=webp&name=small

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2023 11:13 am

amugs wrote:Breezy to windy condition from the pressure gradiant and Lee's expansive wind field

2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 20 F6EImI8WAAEfx-3?format=webp&name=small
I can confirm the gusty winds in eastern, CT already and he is not even at our latitude yet. Thanks for everyones analysis and this on has been a long but fun tracker, looks like the next one is to be with the fishes but we did have some fantasy land runs that hit the area, doubtful.

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Post by amugs Fri Sep 15, 2023 1:58 pm

Beach Erosion taking place along Jersey Shore - pics from Storm Force on X
Yesterday
2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 20 F6EjbPwW0AAwM8Q?format=jpg&name=large

Today
2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 20 F6EjbPuXEAAWjd1?format=jpg&name=large

Anyone down the shore confirm??

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Post by frank 638 Fri Sep 15, 2023 2:32 pm

amugs wrote:Beach Erosion taking place along Jersey Shore - pics from Storm Force on X
Yesterday
2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 20 F6EjbPwW0AAwM8Q?format=jpg&name=large

Today
2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 20 F6EjbPuXEAAWjd1?format=jpg&name=large

Anyone down the shore confirm??
wow the storm is far away and is causing this much damage

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Post by rb924119 Sat Sep 16, 2023 1:41 pm

Thanks for all the kind words, folks. I’ll follow up later, but I don’t think we are done with the tropics. Days 6-9 (September 22nd-25th) need to be watched for a storm/hybrid to develop along the Southeast coast and ride northward along/near/just inside the Eastern Seaboard.

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Post by rb924119 Sat Sep 16, 2023 1:44 pm

And we may not be done beyond that…..but I’d have to look much deeper. And, let’s focus on one thing at a time; it’s easier to keep things organized that way haha

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Sep 16, 2023 8:10 pm

RB there better not be a hurricane on the 22nd...LOL NO NO NO

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 16, 2023 10:26 pm

rb924119 wrote:Thanks for all the kind words, folks. I’ll follow up later, but I don’t think we are done with the tropics. Days 6-9 (September 22nd-25th) need to be watched for a storm/hybrid to develop along the Southeast coast and ride northward along/near/just inside the Eastern Seaboard.
Yup, saw tht on GFS and Euro, looks fairly weak but will be watching for what happens. Great job again and keep us posted on future storms that peak your interest.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 16, 2023 10:28 pm

I thought this was kinda funny, looks like a goulish face.

2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 20 20375910
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Post by Frozen.9 Sun Sep 17, 2023 2:19 am

When was the last time the forum had 20 pages done for a storm that made land fall outside the U.S.

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Post by sroc4 Sun Sep 17, 2023 5:14 am

rb924119 wrote:Thanks for all the kind words, folks. I’ll follow up later, but I don’t think we are done with the tropics. Days 6-9 (September 22nd-25th) need to be watched for a storm/hybrid to develop along the Southeast coast and ride northward along/near/just inside the Eastern Seaboard.


Now I see it.

2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 20 Img_6710

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Post by sroc4 Mon Sep 18, 2023 12:42 pm

2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 20 Two_atl_7d0

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 18, 2023 3:33 pm

Looks like the system for possible close in development at best becomes a depression and causes some moderate rainfall and breezy conditions over the weekend per GFS or Sun/Mon on Euro. Of course this is subject to change and that's IF anything develops at all, def worth keeping a eye on but does not seem like anything to be majorly concerned about. Bastardi feels that any storms coming off Africa will all recurve well before the US, even east of Bermuda.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 20, 2023 4:52 am

Are we going to track this potential storm here or in Sept. observations? Seems to me this will be mainly a potentially big rain event with flash flooding possible and some moderate winds. With how saturated the ground is and with that much more rain forecasted on models it won't take much to uproot trees so I do expect possible outages with this, not widespread but could be a issue. Will be a crummy weekend here nonetheless, good time to stay in and clean up and in my case beef up my ebay store for the holiday shoppers! One tactic is to be prepared for specific days millions of people will be inside shopping online, storms is one of many days. I fully expect such this weekend and increased sales crossing fingers. baby girl needs her dance and after school care paid for.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Sep 20, 2023 6:36 am

Jon go Sept Obs. If it goes tropical we will transition back here

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 03, 2023 11:31 pm

TS Philippe has been one heck of a rollercoaster ride, his track has been nothing but chaos and huge track changes now suddenly he is a threat to maine amd cape copd, I would keep a eye on this possibly.

2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 20 02344210
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Post by Snowprincess0204 Thu Oct 19, 2023 9:53 am

Can anybody chime in on Tammy? Daughter on honeymoon in St Maarten!!! How bad/long will it be? Since it’s not really going to effect the states, very little coverage

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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Oct 19, 2023 10:17 am

Snowprincess0204 wrote:Can anybody chime in on Tammy? Daughter on honeymoon in St Maarten!!! How bad/long will it be? Since it’s not really going to effect the states, very little coverage

When are they coming home? The current forecast shows Tammy becoming a hurricane in that area by Saturday afternoon. Some of the models do keep the eye barely east of the islands though, so hopefully no direct landfalls on any islands.

2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 20 Tammy10

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Post by Snowprincess0204 Thu Oct 19, 2023 10:35 am

Not due home til Tues. should they consider coming home?

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Post by sroc4 Thu Oct 19, 2023 11:17 am

Snowprincess0204 wrote:Not due home til Tues. should they consider coming home?

Latest Euro and GFS take the eye no closer than 75-100miles east of St Maarten; strength wise looks between a strong Trop strom to strong Cat 1 as it passes their latitude. These image are for Sat am.


2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 20 1697889600-bGl0lCI0Aco
2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 20 1697889600-lU8V5bbin9U

That said a couple of the hurricane models take it very close to right over but on weaker side of thing's, while others also have it pass to the east as well. Bottom line is exact track still looks like there are some kinks to iron out.

2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 20 1697900400-OGnFD23oN0M
2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 20 1697911200-KLmPhx2jw68
2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 20 1697922000-VtgpZ96FbEA

I guess my advise would be based on:
a) Where are they staying? In a solid sound structure like a Marriot etc
b) West side vs east side of the island, and the proximity to the ocean regarding surge potential
c) Need to watch the rain and flooding potential relative to where they are staying etc
d) How late can they pull the trigger to come home and finally...
e) Their sense of adventure.

Persoanlly my gut tells me this stays far enough


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Post by Snowprincess0204 Thu Oct 19, 2023 11:59 am

French side. Sonesta Ocean Point resort. Looks like southwest side of island

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Post by sroc4 Thu Oct 19, 2023 12:19 pm

Snowprincess0204 wrote:French side. Sonesta Ocean Point resort. Looks like southwest side of island

As long as it stays east that seems to be the lee side of the island for this storm. Id say "probably" will be just fine, but again looks like modeling still not formed a consensus yet.

Latest 12z GFS wind gusts and swath

2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 20 1697889600-rFfjZvwUoz8
2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 20 1697997600-iRvwSy2sgXw


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