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January 2024 Observations and Discussion

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 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Empty Re: January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:06 pm

Definitely better at H5 through 66.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:26 pm

Ok, overall, I liked the presentation of the Euro, and think it’s improved aloft. The reason why the now map doesn’t reflect it is because it tracked the lower-level circulations basically along I-95, which effectively dry slots that area. That’s ok, we can totally work with that track at this lead, as I think it’ll come back southeast a bit in future runs. The key is its appearance aloft looked better, and it was notably better with its jet streak presentation over New England. Very GEM-like.

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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:27 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:We also have to adjust those snow totals on the models to account for the heavy, wet snow. It will probably be at 8:1 ratio, don't think we'll see it at 10:1. It's going to be back-breaking for anyone that gets dumped on.

I respectfully disagree, Dunnz. This is actually going to be a pretty high-ratio snow event based on thermals (roughly 20:1 in KNYC), with a strong tendency for dendritic growth.

I'll stick to my wet snow thoughts for now, I can't see it being dry for me in NENJ, as we will be closer to the mix zone. For you in PA, I can see you having a dry powdery snow. I guess we'll see as we get closer where that mix line ends up. Hopefully it stays SE of NYC to give me a chance, hate to have to deal with wet snow. If you have some graphics to share I'd appreciate it.

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:28 pm

It's just too late getting its act together this run. That's going to be critical here. The consolidation has to start earlier for this to work well.

Slide the consolidation phase shown here about 100 miles south and it works really well.

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Euro8511

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:30 pm

rb924119 wrote:Ok, overall, I liked the presentation of the Euro, and think it’s improved aloft. The reason why the now map doesn’t reflect it is because it tracked the lower-level circulations basically along I-95, which effectively dry slots that area. That’s ok, we can totally work with that track at this lead, as I think it’ll come back southeast a bit in future runs. The key is its appearance aloft looked better, and it was notably better with its jet streak presentation over New England. Very GEM-like.

I think it's just a little late consolidating this run. Just say a few hours or so IMO. But yes overall the h5 looked good IMO.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:34 pm

Agree, heehaw. The improvements I was looking for, specifically at H5 and H3 were there. That’s what I’m mostly concerned with right now. The northward wobble/slight delay we can work with until Friday nigh, and I think we will end up ok.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:35 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:We also have to adjust those snow totals on the models to account for the heavy, wet snow. It will probably be at 8:1 ratio, don't think we'll see it at 10:1. It's going to be back-breaking for anyone that gets dumped on.

I respectfully disagree, Dunnz. This is actually going to be a pretty high-ratio snow event based on thermals (roughly 20:1 in KNYC), with a strong tendency for dendritic growth.

I'll stick to my wet snow thoughts for now, I can't see it being dry for me in NENJ, as we will be closer to the mix zone. For you in PA, I can see you having a dry powdery snow. I guess we'll see as we get closer where that mix line ends up. Hopefully it stays SE of NYC to give me a chance, hate to have to deal with wet snow. If you have some graphics to share I'd appreciate it.

You’re certainly entitled to do that haha and I can do a more detailed explanation of how I’m getting my numbers tonight once I get out of work haha

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:35 pm

rb924119 wrote:Ok, overall, I liked the presentation of the Euro, and think it’s improved aloft. The reason why the now map doesn’t reflect it is because it tracked the lower-level circulations basically along I-95, which effectively dry slots that area. That’s ok, we can totally work with that track at this lead, as I think it’ll come back southeast a bit in future runs. The key is its appearance aloft looked better, and it was notably better with its jet streak presentation over New England. Very GEM-like.

And I think you are spot on that jet streak is going to be important. I'd like to see that in southern NJ not SNE.

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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:36 pm

Rain on the coast is all because I changed the oil in my snowblower this past weekend isnt it?

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:39 pm

rb924119 wrote:Agree, heehaw. The improvements I was looking for, specifically at H5 and H3 were there. That’s what I’m mostly concerned with right now. The northward wobble/slight delay we can work with until Friday nigh, and I think we will end up ok.

The other thing I keep neglecting is we are on a waxing phase of a close to 2 sigma -NAO as the storm approaches that's got to account for something in the movement of this unless I just don't I get it...

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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:40 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:We also have to adjust those snow totals on the models to account for the heavy, wet snow. It will probably be at 8:1 ratio, don't think we'll see it at 10:1. It's going to be back-breaking for anyone that gets dumped on.

I respectfully disagree, Dunnz. This is actually going to be a pretty high-ratio snow event based on thermals (roughly 20:1 in KNYC), with a strong tendency for dendritic growth.

I'll stick to my wet snow thoughts for now, I can't see it being dry for me in NENJ, as we will be closer to the mix zone. For you in PA, I can see you having a dry powdery snow. I guess we'll see as we get closer where that mix line ends up. Hopefully it stays SE of NYC to give me a chance, hate to have to deal with wet snow. If you have some graphics to share I'd appreciate it.

You’re certainly entitled to do that haha and I can do a more detailed explanation of how I’m getting my numbers tonight once I get out of work haha

lol I just think based on the soundings, we're just at freezing. I hope you find something different, like I said, I don't like heavy wet snow!

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:44 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:We also have to adjust those snow totals on the models to account for the heavy, wet snow. It will probably be at 8:1 ratio, don't think we'll see it at 10:1. It's going to be back-breaking for anyone that gets dumped on.

I respectfully disagree, Dunnz. This is actually going to be a pretty high-ratio snow event based on thermals (roughly 20:1 in KNYC), with a strong tendency for dendritic growth.

I'll stick to my wet snow thoughts for now, I can't see it being dry for me in NENJ, as we will be closer to the mix zone. For you in PA, I can see you having a dry powdery snow. I guess we'll see as we get closer where that mix line ends up. Hopefully it stays SE of NYC to give me a chance, hate to have to deal with wet snow. If you have some graphics to share I'd appreciate it.

You’re certainly entitled to do that haha and I can do a more detailed explanation of how I’m getting my numbers tonight once I get out of work haha

lol  I just think based on the soundings, we're just at freezing. I hope you find something different, like I said, I don't like heavy wet snow!
Nope, and it will be windy per some places I have read, not extreme but even 30 mph trees piled with snow could cause outages.
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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:47 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Ok, overall, I liked the presentation of the Euro, and think it’s improved aloft. The reason why the now map doesn’t reflect it is because it tracked the lower-level circulations basically along I-95, which effectively dry slots that area. That’s ok, we can totally work with that track at this lead, as I think it’ll come back southeast a bit in future runs. The key is its appearance aloft looked better, and it was notably better with its jet streak presentation over New England. Very GEM-like.

And I think you are spot on that jet streak is going to be important. I'd like to see that in southern NJ not SNE.

Nah, over New England is a good spot. If it was over New Jersey this would be a D.C. special. I think you have it right - it was the later organization in the lower levels combined with the northward wobble. But again, those two things are workable at this stage. The fact that it hung with the GEM and even improved overall aloft is big.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:54 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Agree, heehaw. The improvements I was looking for, specifically at H5 and H3 were there. That’s what I’m mostly concerned with right now. The northward wobble/slight delay we can work with until Friday nigh, and I think we will end up ok.

The other thing I keep neglecting is we are on a waxing phase of a close to 2 sigma -NAO as the storm approaches that's got to account for something in the movement of this unless I just don't I get it...

I think it does too, but not necessarily in every case. You can have the statistical -NAO with fairly different atmospheric presentations and associated streamflows. In our case, it’s still an east-based block so it has less DIRECT influence. BUT, it is instrumental with pinning/deepening the 50/50 low, which leads to enhanced ridging across southeastern Canada.

Now, as this block matures and continues to retrograde through mid and late month, THEN it will be directly impactful as it will directly be blocking any northward progression of storms into southern Canada.

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Post by toople Wed Jan 03, 2024 2:02 pm

rb924119 wrote:Ok, overall, I liked the presentation of the Euro, and think it’s improved aloft. The reason why the now map doesn’t reflect it is because it tracked the lower-level circulations basically along I-95, which effectively dry slots that area. That’s ok, we can totally work with that track at this lead, as I think it’ll come back southeast a bit in future runs. The key is its appearance aloft looked better, and it was notably better with its jet streak presentation over New England. Very GEM-like.

I hope you’re right but weather is weather. 12z Euro looks like a wash out for NYC at least how I see it.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 03, 2024 2:21 pm

toople wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Ok, overall, I liked the presentation of the Euro, and think it’s improved aloft. The reason why the now map doesn’t reflect it is because it tracked the lower-level circulations basically along I-95, which effectively dry slots that area. That’s ok, we can totally work with that track at this lead, as I think it’ll come back southeast a bit in future runs. The key is its appearance aloft looked better, and it was notably better with its jet streak presentation over New England. Very GEM-like.

I hope you’re right but weather is weather.  12z Euro looks like a wash out for NYC at least how I see it.
Really? Rb do you have euro snow map?
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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2024 2:22 pm

toople wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Ok, overall, I liked the presentation of the Euro, and think it’s improved aloft. The reason why the now map doesn’t reflect it is because it tracked the lower-level circulations basically along I-95, which effectively dry slots that area. That’s ok, we can totally work with that track at this lead, as I think it’ll come back southeast a bit in future runs. The key is its appearance aloft looked better, and it was notably better with its jet streak presentation over New England. Very GEM-like.

I hope you’re right but weather is weather.  12z Euro looks like a wash out for NYC at least how I see it.

You’re not wrong, but be patient. We are four days away, plenty of time to shift the 50 miles you needed in that run verbatim Smile

And, the 12z Ensemble brings NYC 6”, and are notably snowier than past runs.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2024 2:24 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
toople wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Ok, overall, I liked the presentation of the Euro, and think it’s improved aloft. The reason why the now map doesn’t reflect it is because it tracked the lower-level circulations basically along I-95, which effectively dry slots that area. That’s ok, we can totally work with that track at this lead, as I think it’ll come back southeast a bit in future runs. The key is its appearance aloft looked better, and it was notably better with its jet streak presentation over New England. Very GEM-like.

I hope you’re right but weather is weather.  12z Euro looks like a wash out for NYC at least how I see it.
Really? Rb do you have euro snow map?

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Img_1945
 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Img_1944

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 03, 2024 2:26 pm

This is a decent place to start the consolidation phase. If during that process it slows down or stalls that will be huge for us. With the atmosphere being blocked up that is possible.

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Epsmea10

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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 03, 2024 3:31 pm

Upton now showing this an all rain event at 34* for LI

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 03, 2024 3:33 pm

aiannone wrote:Upton now showing this an all rain event at 34* for LI
We need a thumbs down option...I wouldn't put too much stock in it as you know.
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 03, 2024 3:43 pm

aiannone wrote:Upton now showing this an all rain event at 34* for LI

It's definitely possible, but this circled area would make me say not so fast especially on the north shore.

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Li11

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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 03, 2024 3:46 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
aiannone wrote:Upton now showing this an all rain event at 34* for LI

It's definitely possible, but this circled area would make me say not so fast especially on the north shore.

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Li11

Let's hope. Will only take a subtle shift.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2024 3:47 pm

SREFs MUCH MORE ENTHUSED than the NAM. This makes me think the NAM is out to lunch with the GFS right now.

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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Jan 03, 2024 3:57 pm

NWS update:

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
332 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2024

CTZ005-006-NJZ002-004-103-104-NYZ067>070-042045-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-
332 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

An offshore low is expected to produce snow, possibly mixed with rain
at times, Saturday night into Sunday. The potential exists for 4 to 8
inches of snow.

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 03, 2024 4:01 pm

Upton's latest disco

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
No major changes with the 12Z model cycle with the general idea of
the low for this weekend. There remain some differences wrt the
exact track however. The ECMWF is the furthest N, and looks like an
outlier when compared to the GFS and GEM, which are further S. The
GFS Ensemble mean is even further S, so the fcst has been tweaked
towards a more sly, colder soln.

The models are often too warm with sfc temps this far out,
particularly on the cold side of the sys. Couple this with a spread
in tracks, and the NBM looks too warm attm. The end result could be
warmer if the track ends up farther N, but based on the GFS ensemble
and the low not getting to 40N, blended the NBM10 percent with the
CONSALL for sfc temps late Sat thru Sun.

Based on the expected nely winds, a coastal front would likely
develop across sern LI and possibly into sern CT, adding another
layer to the temp complexity. This boundary should delineate a
mainly all rain event from snow or a mixed event.

The low is progged to get around 999 by 12Z Sun per the GFS, but
there is some model spread in the intensity as well. The GEM appears
to be the deepest, getting down to around 988. This signals that a
big wind event is not expected attm. The deepest low soln would
likely yield peak gusts around 40kt for sern areas.

For snowfall, in general this looks like a 4-8 inch with locally
higher amounts sys where it remains all snow N and W of NYC, 3-6
most of the area, and 2-4 or less much of LI and the ern CT coast.
Again this is all subject to change, with a track to the N bringing
more rain and a track further S beginning to limit pcpn amounts.

Will add a mention in the HWO for the 4-8 inch zone.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 03, 2024 4:11 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:NWS update:

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
332 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2024

CTZ005-006-NJZ002-004-103-104-NYZ067>070-042045-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-
332 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

An offshore low is expected to produce snow, possibly mixed with rain
at times, Saturday night into Sunday. The potential exists for 4 to 8
inches of snow.
Of course southern WC is left out, wont take much to add us though and the discussion mentions 3-6 which I would be more than willing to take as opposed to nada.
jmanley32
jmanley32
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