January 2024 Observations and Discussion

rb924119 wrote:NAM not enthused still.

Through 48 Nam is def better. Beyond that Nam is out of range anyway.

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:NAM not enthused still.

Through 48 Nam is def better. Beyond that Nam is out of range anyway.

True, and it has been off its game lately. But if we could get it in our camp I’d feel better because it has a knack for sniffing out bigger events. I’d certainly trade it for the GFS though, even if it’s been sub-par lol

I'd take my chances with that mid-level look on the rgem. It's out of range, but encouraging nonetheless.

100% heehaw. The GEM suite has been steadfast on this. I expect another big run from its big brother based on this look.

rb924119 wrote:100% heehaw. The GEM suite has been steadfast on this. I expect another big run from its big brother based on this look.

rb my worry is because over the past year or so if I am not mistkaen at least with the tropics the GFS trumped all other models that agreed at least a few times. I love the runs on all the other models but am weary of the GFS. Hopefully we see some change on it for the better, one positive note, all 3 major models have at least 1 inche of snow for most.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:100% heehaw. The GEM suite has been steadfast on this. I expect another big run from its big brother based on this look.

rb my worry is because over the past year or so if I am not mistkaen at least with the tropics the GFS trumped all other models that agreed at least a few times. I love the runs on all the other models but am weary of the GFS. Hopefully we see some change on it for the better, one positive note, all 3 major models have at least 1 inche of snow for most.

Within five days, the GEM is the top of the pack, Jman, as is the JMA:



Interesting how both the GFS and Euro are the two worst performers inside of five days, although I think that’s become pretty apparent.

Also interesting how the Euro has the best 1-day verification followed by the GEM, and yet at Day five their skill scores are in totally opposite ends of the spectrum.

ICON held serve, btw. H5 didn’t look as good as 00z, but it was definitely better than 06z. For whatever it’s worth lol

Through 48, GFS looks better to me, as the H5 energy rounding the base of the trough looks stronger.

Funny how 6am ch7 Sam Champion said rain sleet snow but will see the accumulating snow on the back end late Sunday afternoon as it pulls out? i'm surprised he did not stress snow Saturday night...guess he does not want to commit this early..

Frozen.9 wrote:Funny how 6am ch7 Sam Champion said rain sleet snow but will see the accumulating snow on the back end late Sunday afternoon as it pulls out? i'm surprised he did not stress snow Saturday night...guess he does not want to commit this early..

Channel 7 is very conservative, they don't like to commit too early, which is the responsible thing to do. He also has to cover a large area, LI, CT, NY, NJ so there will be mixing for some.

GFS did look better, though still not great. GEM is self explanatory haha

The Canadian is a potent storm. I think that's the scenario that can provide the most for the I95. The exact track of the mid-level energy will be critical to r/s lines. As modelled (second picture) you want this about 75 miles off the coast not over AC. But that's well within margin of error at this lead time.

It's this injection from the n/s that IMO gives this storm a sub 990 reading.

I think it’s just handling the evolution better aloft, like we were talking about yesterday. It’s doing better with that northern jet streak, in my opinion.

rb924119 wrote:I think it’s just handling the evolution better aloft, like we were talking about yesterday. It’s doing better with that northern jet streak, in my opinion.

Yes. I cannot put any stock in the GFS as it's all over the place with s/w placements.

I agree about the CMC. It’s been so consistent. It’s either going to go down in flames or it’s gonna win this thing for many of us. I’m excited to see what the mesos cook up as we head into thurs pm/Fri. I’ll bet some fun NAM runs are in our future. Lol

The GEM was amazing. Major snowstorm if verified verbatim. having the GEm and Euro is encouraging, especially since you guys are seeing things on the GFS that don't make sense. reel it in guys!

GEFS still weak. Late to the party as usual.

nutleyblizzard wrote:GEFS still weak. Late to the party as usual.

Great take!

12Z GFS MODEL TAKES A JUMP TOWARDS THE EUROPEAN
Those weather buffs following the run-to-run models will see a bit of a difference in the 12z (new GFS run). This is why I cautioned about the GFS tricks (and bias) seen the last 3-4 runs. The 12z new GFS is now moving a bit more… pic.twitter.com/jbUYoB10ku

— Mike Masco (@MikeMasco) January 3, 2024

We also have to adjust those snow totals on the models to account for the heavy, wet snow. It will probably be at 8:1 ratio, don't think we'll see it at 10:1. It's going to be back-breaking for anyone that gets dumped on.

Dunnzoo wrote:We also have to adjust those snow totals on the models to account for the heavy, wet snow. It will probably be at 8:1 ratio, don't think we'll see it at 10:1. It's going to be back-breaking for anyone that gets dumped on.

I respectfully disagree, Dunnz. This is actually going to be a pretty high-ratio snow event based on thermals (roughly 20:1 in KNYC), with a strong tendency for dendritic growth.

amugs wrote:Great take!

12Z GFS MODEL TAKES A JUMP TOWARDS THE EUROPEAN
Those weather buffs following the run-to-run models will see a bit of a difference in the 12z (new GFS run). This is why I cautioned about the GFS tricks (and bias) seen the last 3-4 runs. The 12z new GFS is now moving a bit more… pic.twitter.com/jbUYoB10ku

— Mike Masco (@MikeMasco) January 3, 2024

Here's your convective feedback issue.. Which is why it pulls the moisture SE and you don't have a more stacked storm look on the surface vs 850 which creates a much weaker storm "look". GFS is awful -- even when it's right it's still wrong lol pic.twitter.com/jBIju4b1p2

— Mike Masco (@MikeMasco) January 3, 2024

I’d have to do a more formal analysis on that to get more specific, but that’s a ballpark figure based at the peak of the storm.

12z Euro looks better to me, as the H5 energy streamer already looks stronger. We have to see what happens as it catches up with the trough and then evolves as it rounds the bottom of it.

Definitely better at H5 through 66.

Ok, overall, I liked the presentation of the Euro, and think it’s improved aloft. The reason why the now map doesn’t reflect it is because it tracked the lower-level circulations basically along I-95, which effectively dry slots that area. That’s ok, we can totally work with that track at this lead, as I think it’ll come back southeast a bit in future runs. The key is its appearance aloft looked better, and it was notably better with its jet streak presentation over New England. Very GEM-like.