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January 2024 Observations and Discussion

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 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Empty Re: January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:55 am

rb924119 wrote:NAM not enthused still.

Through 48 Nam is def better. Beyond that Nam is out of range anyway.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:59 am

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:NAM not enthused still.

Through 48 Nam is def better. Beyond that Nam is out of range anyway.

True, and it has been off its game lately. But if we could get it in our camp I’d feel better because it has a knack for sniffing out bigger events. I’d certainly trade it for the GFS though, even if it’s been sub-par lol

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 03, 2024 10:13 am

I'd take my chances with that mid-level look on the rgem. It's out of range, but encouraging nonetheless.

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Rgem20

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2024 10:18 am

100% heehaw. The GEM suite has been steadfast on this. I expect another big run from its big brother based on this look.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 03, 2024 10:25 am

rb924119 wrote:100% heehaw. The GEM suite has been steadfast on this. I expect another big run from its big brother based on this look.
rb my worry is because over the past year or so if I am not mistkaen at least with the tropics the GFS trumped all other models that agreed at least a few times. I love the runs on all the other models but am weary of the GFS. Hopefully we see some change on it for the better, one positive note, all 3 major models have at least 1 inche of snow for most.
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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2024 10:39 am

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:100% heehaw. The GEM suite has been steadfast on this. I expect another big run from its big brother based on this look.
rb my worry is because over the past year or so if I am not mistkaen at least with the tropics the GFS trumped all other models that agreed at least a few times. I love the runs on all the other models but am weary of the GFS. Hopefully we see some change on it for the better, one positive note, all 3 major models have at least 1 inche of snow for most.

Within five days, the GEM is the top of the pack, Jman, as is the JMA:

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Img_1943

Interesting how both the GFS and Euro are the two worst performers inside of five days, although I think that’s become pretty apparent.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2024 10:42 am

Also interesting how the Euro has the best 1-day verification followed by the GEM, and yet at Day five their skill scores are in totally opposite ends of the spectrum.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2024 10:45 am

ICON held serve, btw. H5 didn’t look as good as 00z, but it was definitely better than 06z. For whatever it’s worth lol

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2024 10:47 am

Through 48, GFS looks better to me, as the H5 energy rounding the base of the trough looks stronger.

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Post by Frozen.9 Wed Jan 03, 2024 10:51 am

Funny how 6am ch7 Sam Champion said rain sleet snow but will see the accumulating snow on the back end late Sunday afternoon as it pulls out? i'm surprised he did not stress snow Saturday night...guess he does not want to commit this early..

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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Jan 03, 2024 10:54 am

Frozen.9 wrote:Funny how 6am ch7 Sam Champion said rain sleet snow but will see the accumulating snow on the back end late Sunday afternoon as it pulls out? i'm surprised he did not stress snow Saturday night...guess he does not want to commit this early..

Channel 7 is very conservative, they don't like to commit too early, which is the responsible thing to do. He also has to cover a large area, LI, CT, NY, NJ so there will be mixing for some.

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
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Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2024 11:15 am

GFS did look better, though still not great. GEM is self explanatory haha

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 03, 2024 11:24 am

The Canadian is a potent storm. I think that's the scenario that can provide the most for the I95. The exact track of the mid-level energy will be critical to r/s lines. As modelled (second picture) you want this about 75 miles off the coast not over AC. But that's well within margin of error at this lead time.

It's this injection from the n/s that IMO gives this storm a sub 990 reading.

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Inject10


 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Can11

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2024 11:30 am

I think it’s just handling the evolution better aloft, like we were talking about yesterday. It’s doing better with that northern jet streak, in my opinion.

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 03, 2024 11:33 am

rb924119 wrote:I think it’s just handling the evolution better aloft, like we were talking about yesterday. It’s doing better with that northern jet streak, in my opinion.

Yes. I cannot put any stock in the GFS as it's all over the place with s/w placements.

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Post by MattyICE Wed Jan 03, 2024 11:34 am

I agree about the CMC. It’s been so consistent. It’s either going to go down in flames or it’s gonna win this thing for many of us. I’m excited to see what the mesos cook up as we head into thurs pm/Fri. I’ll bet some fun NAM runs are in our future. Lol

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 03, 2024 11:37 am

The GEM was amazing. Major snowstorm if verified verbatim. having the GEm and Euro is encouraging, especially since you guys are seeing things on the GFS that don't make sense. reel it in guys!
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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Jan 03, 2024 11:41 am

GEFS still weak. Late to the party as usual.
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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2024 11:46 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:GEFS still weak. Late to the party as usual.

lol!

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 03, 2024 12:05 pm

Great take!


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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Jan 03, 2024 12:14 pm

We also have to adjust those snow totals on the models to account for the heavy, wet snow. It will probably be at 8:1 ratio, don't think we'll see it at 10:1. It's going to be back-breaking for anyone that gets dumped on.

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2024 12:31 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:We also have to adjust those snow totals on the models to account for the heavy, wet snow. It will probably be at 8:1 ratio, don't think we'll see it at 10:1. It's going to be back-breaking for anyone that gets dumped on.

I respectfully disagree, Dunnz. This is actually going to be a pretty high-ratio snow event based on thermals (roughly 20:1 in KNYC), with a strong tendency for dendritic growth.

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 03, 2024 12:31 pm

amugs wrote:Great take!


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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2024 12:32 pm

I’d have to do a more formal analysis on that to get more specific, but that’s a ballpark figure based at the peak of the storm.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:01 pm

12z Euro looks better to me, as the H5 energy streamer already looks stronger. We have to see what happens as it catches up with the trough and then evolves as it rounds the bottom of it.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:06 pm

Definitely better at H5 through 66.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:26 pm

Ok, overall, I liked the presentation of the Euro, and think it’s improved aloft. The reason why the now map doesn’t reflect it is because it tracked the lower-level circulations basically along I-95, which effectively dry slots that area. That’s ok, we can totally work with that track at this lead, as I think it’ll come back southeast a bit in future runs. The key is its appearance aloft looked better, and it was notably better with its jet streak presentation over New England. Very GEM-like.

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