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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2024 4:45 pm

Hello all

I am back from vacation and spent time digesting all the model runs and analysis provided here by our members. It is time for our first storm thread of the season! I wrote up a blog to share my thoughts.

First Snowstorm of 2024

Also, here is my probability map of seeing at least 3" of snow this weekend. Read the blog to understand my reasoning.

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I Impact%20Map

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Post by dkodgis Wed Jan 03, 2024 4:57 pm

Too soon I know but will this storm peter out by Sunday morning or continue into the day?
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 03, 2024 5:03 pm

Thanks for the explanation Frank, hope you had a good time on your trip. Not going to lie I am going to expect rain for me from what you are stating. At a 25% change thats not mcuh, I would not place a bet on 25% for anything. Granted I get there are some changes that could happen but it seems like it may just not be good for my area and by a hair too. So CP if ur hearing me or see this, you should be happy with this map 50/75%, your complaints look like they are not going to be needed. I really have not gotten my hopes up for this storm from the start, which I am glad of because if this continues to look this way then I will just hope it passes so far south that its sunny, I really cannot deal with anymore rain, it just plain sucks. But heres to praying for a miracle I guess, and hope you are wrong and we see a CMC solution (unlikely though). And yes I did read your whole blog, did not understand all of it so feel free to give feedback to my disheartened response if it is not warrented.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Jan 03, 2024 5:20 pm

18z GFS starting to cave. More amped with a snowier solution.
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 03, 2024 5:24 pm

Also of note is the ULL as the 500mb trough swings through Sunday afternoon it will probably produce snowfall. Now if the ULL catches up with the mid-levels and surface forget it. All bets are off with this thing. It'll explode mid 980s and that would be nirvana. I doubt it as the trough isn't negative but we also have a plugged up atmosphere. The point is keep an open mind with this. There are things synoptically that can surprise the heck out of you with this setup in regard to the forecast.

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I Gfs191

I should be clear here. It does catch up but a bit too late for our benefit as it's past the benchmark. As modelled it would enhance SNE snowfall.


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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 03, 2024 5:35 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:18z GFS starting to cave. More amped with a snowier solution.
It really did make a massive change for the better, still keeps my area on the low end but just a small tick forther SE and game on. Does this still have godzilla potential or not so much anymore? Looking more like a possible mothra?

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I Gfs_as13


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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2024 5:35 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:18z GFS starting to cave. More amped with a snowier solution.

I’ve been waiting to use this……lol

Other models to the GFS:

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I Img_1913

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2024 6:10 pm

I failed to mention this in the write up, but I agree with heehaw that there’s lingering snow into Sunday afternoon in the form of a big CCB or inverted trough. I like the CCB potential. Areas north of NYC would benefit most from it, but I can see an inch or two elsewhere.

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Post by SENJsnowman Wed Jan 03, 2024 6:55 pm

Frank welcome home and I hope you and your bride had a beautiful honeymoon and more importantly that you two have a blessed and loving lifetime together.

If I recall correct, your SCI measures the likelihood of 1” of snow falling in Central Park. Or is it just NYC generally speaking? Either way, do you still like 75% for that number or is it going to get lowered without a big change in guidance? Just wondering…

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 03, 2024 7:12 pm

Recon flights tomorrow for WC and Gulf on Friday.

Question,  why use OP when they wafflesd and have been like no tomorrow over ENS??

If tjis gets strung out killed , your the mush and will be banished from ever starting another thread until the Rulers of each sector of OTI vote for.....unanimously....LOL!!

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 03, 2024 7:31 pm

GEFS sides with OP Run taking steps towards CMC and EPS.
Newest Runs 18Z on top to 6Z

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I Gc9sq210
JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I Gc9sq211

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 03, 2024 7:44 pm

When is the precip supposed to start? Gonna be in eastern CT Sat possibly and want to get back before anything starts even if it is rain id like to have a idea now if I should go or not.

You know one thing occured to me theres gonna be ALOT of accidents even if a little snow, why? Because its been 2 years for most at least down here and people didn't know how to drive in snow before...I may even be rusty.
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 03, 2024 7:55 pm

One thing is becoming is becoming clear there is a lot of mid-level energy that is being pushed up by the s/s jet.

I want to see this n/s jet compress the flow a bit more to 1/keep the storm more easterly, 2/force earlier consolidation. If those two things can occur then I think this turns into something we only are getting glimpses of from time to time.

18Z Euro
JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I Jet11

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2024 7:57 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:Frank welcome home and I hope you and your bride had a beautiful honeymoon and more importantly that you two have a blessed and loving lifetime together.

If I recall correct, your SCI measures the likelihood of 1” of snow falling in Central Park. Or is it just NYC generally speaking? Either way, do you still like 75% for that number or is it going to get lowered without a big change in guidance? Just wondering…

Good question. You’re correct…SCI is the probability of 1” or more of accumulating snowfall in NYC. Yes I’m sticking with 75% for now. I have NYC at 25% for 3” or more. So it gives you an idea of where my head is at for the coast.

amugs wrote:Recon flights tomorrow for WC and Gulf on Friday.

Question,  why use OP when they wafflesd and have been like no tomorrow over ENS??

If tjis gets strung out killed , your the mush and will be banished from ever starting another thread until the Rulers of each sector of OTI vote for.....unanimously....LOL!!

Haha, well I hope it doesn’t dissipate into nothing. The STJ won’t allow that to happen anyway. To answer your question, I like to use OPs inside of 5 days because I can get into more details. However I still very much take into consideration the ensembles. Especially for the track of the low.

I also rely on my instincts. Just based on what I see in the upper levels, I’m not buying any model showing snow amounts of 6” or more in NYC.

jmanley32 wrote:When is the precip supposed to start? Gonna be in eastern CT Sat possibly and want to get back before anything starts even if it is rain id like to have a idea now if I should go or not.

You know one thing occured to me theres gonna be ALOT of accidents even if a little snow, why? Because its been 2 years for most at least down here and people didn't know how to drive in snow before...I may even be rusty.

Precip starts Saturday after 5pm. Almost 100% of this system comes at night. At least the “main” event does. Lingering snow possible through Sunday afternoon.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2024 8:13 pm

Woaaah, latest SREFS are really amped. I wonder if this will be the run that the NAM wakes up……

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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 03, 2024 8:17 pm

Anyone see the RGEM? That would really disappoint lol

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Post by dsix85 Wed Jan 03, 2024 8:18 pm

Any chance that this moves slower and explodes off the coast of LI?

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Post by tomsriversnowstorm Wed Jan 03, 2024 8:28 pm

Why are you excited about it being amped. I know many times when these things are amped it leads to us in New Jersey getting rain?

rb924119 wrote:Woaaah, latest SREFS are really amped. I wonder if this will be the run that the NAM wakes up……

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Post by Irish Wed Jan 03, 2024 8:33 pm

I think things have started to look ugly for the 95 corridor and SE. Crazy how just 24 hours ago, it was mentioned that this storm could be a 95 special. That's the way it goes and it could shift again.
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Post by Irish Wed Jan 03, 2024 8:34 pm

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:Why are you excited about it being amped. I know many times when these things are amped it leads to us in New Jersey getting rain?

rb924119 wrote:Woaaah, latest SREFS are really amped. I wonder if this will be the run that the NAM wakes up……
Was thinking the same thing when I read rb's post.  That usually means bad things.
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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2024 8:42 pm

Irish wrote:
tomsriversnowstorm wrote:Why are you excited about it being amped. I know many times when these things are amped it leads to us in New Jersey getting rain?

rb924119 wrote:Woaaah, latest SREFS are really amped. I wonder if this will be the run that the NAM wakes up……
Was thinking the same thing when I read rb's post.  That usually means bad things.

It does result in the I-95 Corridor being an all-rain event, but the SREFS are overamplified 99% of the time. I’m looking at them as more of a hopeful sign that the NAM will improve in its 00z run, because they are based on the same dynamical core. Basically, the SREFS are like the NAM’s ensemble.

The 18z RGEM was also very amplified, though, similarly to the SREFS. However, it was an 18z run, which I don’t pay much attention to, personally.

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Post by Irish Wed Jan 03, 2024 8:49 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Irish wrote:
tomsriversnowstorm wrote:Why are you excited about it being amped. I know many times when these things are amped it leads to us in New Jersey getting rain?

rb924119 wrote:Woaaah, latest SREFS are really amped. I wonder if this will be the run that the NAM wakes up……
Was thinking the same thing when I read rb's post.  That usually means bad things.

It does result in the I-95 Corridor being an all-rain event, but the SREFS are overamplified 99% of the time. I’m looking at them as more of a hopeful sign that the NAM will improve in its 00z run, because they are based on the same dynamical core. Basically, the SREFS are like the NAM’s ensemble.

The 18z RGEM was also very amplified, though, similarly to the SREFS. However, it was an 18z run, which I don’t pay much attention to, personally.

OK, we shall see, just don't like where this is heading.   There were runs where the heavy snow band was right across Central jersey and down 95. Now it looks like things are shifted to where they usually go NW.
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Post by billg315 Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:14 pm

How the world turns. Yesterday the Euro was our best bet and we were hoping the GFS was out to lunch. Now the GFS is more encouraging than the Euro. lol.

My initial thought, with the caveat that we won't really zero-in on this until late tomorrow or Friday, is that the dividing line here ends up being roughly along the fall line or the I-95. I think north and west of that line is a 6-10" type snow. Along or just either side of that line is about 3-5" with rain mixing in the middle before ending as snow. And South and east mostly rain with maybe some snow at the outset Saturday evening and lighter back-end snows Sunday AM.
This is a very rough estimate -- which is about all I think anyone can give at this stage with the models still waffling.
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Post by tomsriversnowstorm Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:17 pm

Yea I am hoping the pattern shifts and we can get some snow chances later in the month and February. Just too warm right now. I will say this has been fun to watch and learn.

billg315 wrote:How the world turns. Yesterday the Euro was our best bet and we were hoping the GFS was out to lunch. Now the GFS is more encouraging than the Euro. lol.

My initial thought, with the caveat that we won't really zero-in on this until late tomorrow or Friday, is that the dividing line here ends up being roughly along the fall line or the I-95. I think north and west of that line is a 6-10" type snow. Along or just either side of that line is about 3-5" with rain mixing in the middle before ending as snow. And South and east mostly rain with maybe some snow at the outset Saturday evening and lighter back-end snows Sunday AM.
This is a very rough estimate -- which is about all I think anyone can give at this stage with the models still waffling.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:42 pm

NAM woke up. Looks a lot better than it did today lol

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