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JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:40 am

Hi!

Unfortunately, this one is not going to pan out the way many of us hoped. Obviously there’s still a couple of more model cycles to go, but I see enough consistency to feel confident in putting out a forecast.

1st call snow map

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II IMG-6828

Final call snow map

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II Img_6820


My gut from the very beginning was not keen on the setup at 500mb for the coastal plain. An easterly wind off the warm Atlantic water, antecedent air mass, scattered mid level vorticity and lack of true phasing are just a few negatives to support significant accumulation to the coast. However, there’s a large contingency of members who live away from the coast and will see there first significant snowfall of the season. So I am excited for them!

Expect everyone north of Trenton to start out as snow around 2-3pm tomorrow. Gradually it will turn to a wet snow / mix as you move up the coast toward NYC and Long Island. This is a fast moving system. I think precip will shut off around 7am on Sunday or sooner.

The bonus will be if we’re able to get into any part of the CCB Sunday morning into early afternoon. The more north you are the better the odds. You could squeeze an additional inch or two out of it. Right now I would keep expectations low for that to happen. The models have generally trended weaker and more N&E with it.

Hopefully the coast can cash in at some point this month. I’ll be posting more thoughts in the long range thread.


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Sat Jan 06, 2024 12:09 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:49 am

HRRR FWIW

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II Sn10_a77

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Post by Frozen.9 Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:51 am

NYC is going to have more rain the next storm (Tuesday) then snow this storm...lol

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Post by crippo84 Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:55 am

Not that it matters or has any playoff implications, but the Jets at Patriots Sunday afternoon could be fun to watch.
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 05, 2024 12:00 pm

Frank starting a thread again killed the storm JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II 1f602  JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II 1f602  ... that's it banished to OTI!! - CP and DOC take him away!


JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II GDFvWlUXoAEkhe9?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by hyde345 Fri Jan 05, 2024 12:43 pm

None of this is a surprise tbh. It was always a dicey situation for the coast. Too much emphasis was placed on the nam. It's a trash model especially beyond 48 hours. I would take the cmc/rgem over the gfs/nam nearly every time in most winter storm situations. Still feel the coast could squeak out an inch or 2 depending on what happens as the precip starts. I don't think much will accumulate on Sunday in metro/LI on the back side. Accums will increase as you go N and W with 6 inches possible from lower westchester northward. I'm hoping for 8-10 along and north of 84 and think only places that see a foot are Catskills. Downsloping may keep totals down a tad in HV east of hudson IMBY. It's looking like there will be many more systems to track over the next 2 months.
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 05, 2024 1:03 pm

HREF WHOAA!!

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II GDGNZU8XkAAUsg3?format=jpg&name=large

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 05, 2024 1:06 pm

Euro basically dryslots the Delaware River Valley lol continues coming west. Unreal.

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 05, 2024 1:11 pm

rb924119 wrote:Euro basically dryslots the Delaware River Valley lol continues coming west. Unreal.

Yea euro went west

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 05, 2024 1:12 pm

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II Sn10_a78

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 05, 2024 1:28 pm

The 12Z Euro is showing me two things 1/a storm that is getting hit hard by resistance at the wrong time, 2/mid-level energy too far west initially.

This tells me the forcing is going to suffer and it's going to be warm. That's why I think EPA (my area, Allentown, Easton) is a couple inches and if this trend continues I'm confident double digits will be very difficult to find anywhere in the scope of this forum. It may be the best precip is the WAA for those in the deeper interior.


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Post by amugs Fri Jan 05, 2024 1:32 pm

EURO holds and what a junk storm this has become - Bing, Central PA, CNY and  is now prime target on 12Z runs. You can't make this up. Sheared mess, no consolidation.


Last edited by amugs on Fri Jan 05, 2024 1:33 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 05, 2024 1:33 pm

heehaw453 wrote:The 12Z Euro is showing me two things 1/a storm that is getting hit hard by resistance at the wrong time, 2/mid-level energy too far west initially.

This tells me the forcing is going to suffer and it's going to be warm. That's why I think EPA (my area, Allentown, Easton) is a couple inches and if this trend continues I'm confident double digits will be very difficult to find anywhere in the scope of this forum. It may be the best precip is the WAA for those in the deeper interior.


The mid level energy is displaced. This is why the EURO is consistent in showing a very bizarre QPF distribution, with the middle part of NJ appearing to be dry-slotted. Its snow map follows my 1st call map pretty well, though if these trends continue, I will need to lower totals a bit.

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 05, 2024 1:34 pm

amugs wrote:EURO holds and what a junk storm this has become - Bing, Central PA, CNY and  is now prime target on 12Z runs. You can't make this up. Sheared mess, no consolidation.

How in this day and age can models get it so wrong not far out from the storm.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 05, 2024 1:34 pm

amugs wrote:EURO holds and what a junk storm this has become - Bing, Central PA, CNY and  is now prime target on 12Z runs. You can't make this up. Sheared mess, no consolidation.

Yes...exactly.

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 05, 2024 1:35 pm

amugs wrote:EURO holds and what a junk storm this has become - Bing, Central PA, CNY and  is now prime target on 12Z runs. You can't make this up. Sheared mess, no consolidation.

Agreed 100%. I believe the final act is going trending towards this.


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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 05, 2024 1:36 pm

Though i was get a bit hopeful im not overly dismayed at the more warm solution. Im on the dividing line of nwar nothing to 3 to 6. Thats gonna be a nowcast. Was not expect precip by 2pm i thought overnight so i guess i.have to leave midmorning instead afternoon.
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 05, 2024 1:40 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
amugs wrote:EURO holds and what a junk storm this has become - Bing, Central PA, CNY and  is now prime target on 12Z runs. You can't make this up. Sheared mess, no consolidation.

Yes...exactly.

The lack of consolidation has been modelled though. The bigger concern that I have for those NW is after it hits the resistance there's nothing energizing it until past BM. That's too late and if that hold NW totals will be lower.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 05, 2024 1:42 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
amugs wrote:EURO holds and what a junk storm this has become - Bing, Central PA, CNY and  is now prime target on 12Z runs. You can't make this up. Sheared mess, no consolidation.

Yes...exactly.

The lack of consolidation has been modelled though. The bigger concern that I have for those NW is after it hits the resistance there's nothing energizing it until past BM. That's too late and if that hold NW totals will be lower.

I pointed this out a few days ago, but you also have a mid level circulation over the Great Lakes that is contributing to the sheariness (not a word, I know). The lack of pacific ridging is killing us here, too.

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 05, 2024 1:45 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
amugs wrote:EURO holds and what a junk storm this has become - Bing, Central PA, CNY and  is now prime target on 12Z runs. You can't make this up. Sheared mess, no consolidation.

Yes...exactly.

The lack of consolidation has been modelled though. The bigger concern that I have for those NW is after it hits the resistance there's nothing energizing it until past BM. That's too late and if that hold NW totals will be lower.

I pointed this out a few days ago, but you also have a mid level circulation over the Great Lakes that is contributing to the sheariness (not a word, I know). The lack of pacific ridging is killing us here, too.

Agreed it's a rare bird that NYC gets over 6" with -PNA values. Not unheard of but rare...

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 05, 2024 3:10 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
amugs wrote:EURO holds and what a junk storm this has become - Bing, Central PA, CNY and  is now prime target on 12Z runs. You can't make this up. Sheared mess, no consolidation.

Yes...exactly.

The lack of consolidation has been modelled though. The bigger concern that I have for those NW is after it hits the resistance there's nothing energizing it until past BM. That's too late and if that hold NW totals will be lower.

I pointed this out a few days ago, but you also have a mid level circulation over the Great Lakes that is contributing to the sheariness (not a word, I know). The lack of pacific ridging is killing us here, too.


Thr GL.Low came out of nowhere  and formed a weak area where. HP was to be and forecasts for days thus helping supply arctic air and locking this off the coast in a BM track. PAC progressive flow has killed this. Went from a Sunday afternoon storm through Sunday night to a Saturday afternoon storm, progressive flow. PAC for some reason is roaring even with a split flow. Can't make up what went wrong.

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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 05, 2024 3:10 pm

Haven't liked the lack of a classic Pac ridge, nor the Low placement being inland over the Delmarva and tucked into the NJ coast. So I guess those should have been bigger red flags for me.
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Post by Koroptim Fri Jan 05, 2024 3:11 pm

How many times can we be Charlie Brown with Mother Nature pulling away the football??

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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 05, 2024 3:14 pm

Frank's snow map looks about right to me. At least I'm far enough northwest that I should see some snow accumulation out of this. Which, even a few inches, is a few inches more than I've had the last two winters.
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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 05, 2024 3:17 pm

FWIW, the 18z NAM appears to be a slight improvement over the last two runs. A little colder, a little further south with accumulating snows.
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