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JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II

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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 05, 2024 3:14 pm

Frank's snow map looks about right to me. At least I'm far enough northwest that I should see some snow accumulation out of this. Which, even a few inches, is a few inches more than I've had the last two winters.

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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 05, 2024 3:17 pm

FWIW, the 18z NAM appears to be a slight improvement over the last two runs. A little colder, a little further south with accumulating snows.

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 05, 2024 3:27 pm

The 18Z NAM not too bad. If we can get this storm at that intensity where the X is, then I think the I95/NYC/LI in the game and NW sees double digits. That's my key with this.

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 2 Nam72

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Post by dsix85 Fri Jan 05, 2024 4:05 pm

Heehaw- you really think there’s a chance some of LI can get into the goods with this weekends storm?

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Post by docstox12 Fri Jan 05, 2024 4:10 pm

This reminds me of a commercial for an old toy back in the 1960's "Weebles wobble but they dont fall down"!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKcAWO_IznI

Models wobble but they won't let us down! I hope,LOL.

As Yogi Berra said "It ain't over til it's over"!
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 05, 2024 4:18 pm

dsix85 wrote:Heehaw- you really think there’s a chance some of LI can get into the goods with this weekends storm?

Hi. The path to that IMO is a storm that starts to deepen 150 miles SE of the BM (40/70) as I showed in the previous picture. I don't think the initial WAA precip will do much good for snow on the Island because the 850h storm is pushing up southerly winds on the storm's approach. The tricky part is the storm is hitting resistance so it gets strung out and it needs time to reorganize itself. So the short of it is I don't think it's impossible, but I would call it unlikely ATTM. But if your are going to see decent accumulations on LI much more likely on the north shore as per usual.

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 05, 2024 4:20 pm

18Z RGEM. We shall see...

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 2 Rgem21

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 05, 2024 4:52 pm

heehaw453 wrote:18Z RGEM. We shall see...

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 2 Rgem21
that sucks imby, wwa was issued 2-4 i guess better than nothing. hey if i see 5 i tie all of last year!
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 05, 2024 4:55 pm

18 z gfs, wow so close for southern westchester and nyc.

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 2 Gfs_as14
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 05, 2024 5:02 pm

GFS still trying to sell it. Funny little model...

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 2 Gfs193

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Post by MattyICE Fri Jan 05, 2024 5:03 pm

18z HRRR
JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 2 Img_1710

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 05, 2024 5:18 pm

Good over running air mass for the WAA. I'm at 29.5/19.5.  This is a stout L that will become the 50/50 that will pin the H pressure building into Quebec. Stuff like that used to work around here in January.


JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 2 50-5011

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Post by Irish Fri Jan 05, 2024 5:34 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Good over running air mass for the WAA. I'm at 29.5/19.5.  This is a stout L that will become the 50/50 that will pin the H pressure building into Quebec. Stuff like that used to work around here in January.


JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 2 50-5011
Climate change.
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Post by phil155 Fri Jan 05, 2024 5:40 pm

MattyICE wrote:18z HRRR
JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 2 Img_1710

Looks a bit south to my amateur eyes, this one really maybe a case of haves and the have nots.. with the low tucked in as close as it will be with the fetch coming right in off the warm water the folks closer to the coast have very little chance. If that wind were more ne or nne it would be a different situation

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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 05, 2024 5:53 pm

32* with a dewpoint of 24* here. Going down to 23* tonight with dewpoint probably in the upper teens. No problem with antecedent temps here. Storm is just too tucked into the coast bringing in too much ocean warmth.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 05, 2024 6:17 pm

Irish wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Good over running air mass for the WAA. I'm at 29.5/19.5.  This is a stout L that will become the 50/50 that will pin the H pressure building into Quebec. Stuff like that used to work around here in January.


JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 2 50-5011
Climate change.

Probably banter, but I’d like to pose a couple questions just to ponder:

What exactly did climate change effect? Did it somehow alter the intensity of the mid-level vorticity so that it was weaker? Or did it change the lapse rates of dry and moist air so that the equations that help us describe our atmosphere completely break down? Ooooo is it possible that it led to so much warm advection that it completely overwhelmed the pattern and will make it be warm everywhere? Well, if that’s the case, how are we even talking about snow for anybody?

You’re literally 30 miles away from having the I-95 Corridor get a foot of snow, which is in line with a forecast that was made nearly a week ago, and that forecast never incorporated the idea of climate change. It also means that if our circulations pass just that far further southeast from where they are currently being modeled, that will make the difference. Is climate change steering those circulations? Climate doesn’t act on timescales anywhere near that small.

My point is, you can’t blame every event, or ANY event, for that matter, on climate change, because there’s no way to show or prove any direct causation other than inherent variability to the system.

Back to tracking lol

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 05, 2024 6:28 pm

heehaw453 wrote:GFS still trying to sell it. Funny little model...

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 2 Gfs193
i would take that in a heartbeat. but that cutoff is crazy.
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Post by dkodgis Fri Jan 05, 2024 6:33 pm

NWS has backed down my totals: now 4-8 inches.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 05, 2024 6:34 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Irish wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Good over running air mass for the WAA. I'm at 29.5/19.5.  This is a stout L that will become the 50/50 that will pin the H pressure building into Quebec. Stuff like that used to work around here in January.


JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 2 50-5011
Climate change.

Probably banter, but I’d like to pose a couple questions just to ponder:

What exactly did climate change effect? Did it somehow alter the intensity of the mid-level vorticity so that it was weaker? Or did it change the lapse rates of dry and moist air so that the equations that help us describe our atmosphere completely break down? Ooooo is it possible that it led to so much warm advection that it completely overwhelmed the pattern and will make it be warm everywhere? Well, if that’s the case, how are we even talking about snow for anybody?

You’re literally 30 miles away from having the I-95 Corridor get a foot of snow, which is in line with a forecast that was made nearly a week ago, and that forecast never incorporated the idea of climate change. It also means that if our circulations pass just that far further southeast from where they are currently being modeled, that will make the difference. Is climate change steering those circulations? Climate doesn’t act on timescales anywhere near that small.

My point is, you can’t blame every event, or ANY event, for that matter, on climate change, because there’s no way to show or prove any direct causation other than inherent variability to the system.

Back to tracking lol
stick it to da man lol, very solid points. though i do believe in climate change a single storm as you said is way to small scale. it just wasnt quite the right setup. ray you were spot on imo, there is very close to godzilla amts possible just not ythe coast, i mean who knows boxing day changed the night b4 but yes much different setup and cold. epic storm.
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Post by Coachgriff Fri Jan 05, 2024 6:42 pm

Irish wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Good over running air mass for the WAA. I'm at 29.5/19.5.  This is a stout L that will become the 50/50 that will pin the H pressure building into Quebec. Stuff like that used to work around here in January.


JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 2 50-5011
Climate change.

Not quite sure how it plays in the models but the ocean off of NJ is 10 degrees above the normal average…that is quite profound.
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Post by Irish Fri Jan 05, 2024 6:43 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Irish wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Good over running air mass for the WAA. I'm at 29.5/19.5.  This is a stout L that will become the 50/50 that will pin the H pressure building into Quebec. Stuff like that used to work around here in January.


JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 2 50-5011
Climate change.

Probably banter, but I’d like to pose a couple questions just to ponder:

What exactly did climate change effect? Did it somehow alter the intensity of the mid-level vorticity so that it was weaker? Or did it change the lapse rates of dry and moist air so that the equations that help us describe our atmosphere completely break down? Ooooo is it possible that it led to so much warm advection that it completely overwhelmed the pattern and will make it be warm everywhere? Well, if that’s the case, how are we even talking about snow for anybody?

You’re literally 30 miles away from having the I-95 Corridor get a foot of snow, which is in line with a forecast that was made nearly a week ago, and that forecast never incorporated the idea of climate change. It also means that if our circulations pass just that far further southeast from where they are currently being modeled, that will make the difference. Is climate change steering those circulations? Climate doesn’t act on timescales anywhere near that small.

My point is, you can’t blame every event, or ANY event, for that matter, on climate change, because there’s no way to show or prove any direct causation other than inherent variability to the system.

Back to tracking lol

I was jesting, referring to our recent conversation in banter, where climate change was a big topic.  I wouldn't blame climate change for one storm not working out. However, I would certainly blame change in an areas climate over a longer period of time on climate change.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 05, 2024 7:06 pm

Oo. Oops Brick

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Post by dkodgis Fri Jan 05, 2024 7:29 pm

My forecasted highs went up three degrees. Who has the latest models?
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 05, 2024 7:32 pm

I have a good feeling about 00z runs tonight. I don’t know why, but I do lol

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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 05, 2024 7:36 pm

rb924119 wrote:I have a good feeling about 00z runs tonight. I don’t know why, but I do lol

Like your enthusiasm. lol.
Hey, I’m game. I’m under a WWA for 3-6”. It wouldn’t take much of a positive shift for me to sneak into a 4-8/6-10 zone. So bring on the 0z’s.
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Post by Irish Fri Jan 05, 2024 7:49 pm

rb924119 wrote:I have a good feeling about 00z runs tonight. I don’t know why, but I do lol
This is some roller coaster ride!!
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:06 pm

SREFS are better……faster to close off 850 again. Shifted the 850 freezing line about 20 miles south/east. Let’s see what the rest of the maps look like.

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