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Banter Thread 9.0

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 11, 2024 12:18 pm

Banter away

I encourage everyone to go read the storm archive threads. Some of them are hilarious. I also miss that thrill Sad

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Post by SENJsnowman Thu Jan 11, 2024 12:23 pm

If you happen to remember which storms you personally jackpotted in, I’d focus on those threads. I do that every now and then…it really does bring back the thrill!

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 11, 2024 3:06 pm

Wow, that was a freakin’ throwback dude!!! The funny part is that as the snow forecast maps were coming up I can distinctly remember them and the discussions. Freakin’ awesome! Also crazy to think that I’ve been on this forum now for close to 15 years - literally almost half my life haha but those 15 years have been awesome, so here’s to many more!

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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Jan 11, 2024 3:47 pm

https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2024-01-11-el-nino-january-noaa-update
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Post by deadrabbit79 Thu Jan 11, 2024 3:58 pm

So I have a topic that might be controversial but its been weighing on my mind and I need to hear thoughts from some smart weather folks like yourselves……listen I get the whole Climate Change arguement and Im not saying that things arent changing but what are everyone’s thoughts on weather modification?  I honestly had no idea it was a thing but turns out it absolutely is.  Without being considered a conspiracy theorist is it even possible that this could be part of the explanation as to why 1-3, 2-4 inches of rain is now a “normal” rain storm?  Just curious

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Post by SENJsnowman Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:23 am

Whoa, seems like I ran into a modern day temperance movement over in the long range, so me and my still tempered optimism and excitement will just slide over here to banter for a bit.

Through the eyes of a snow-loving Coastie, this a truly exciting time. The past 5-7 days have followed the script for a Jersey Shore snowstorm to a T.  It starts with Appy showing a big storm at the 10-14 day range. Check. Then as the App loses the storm at the 7-10 day mark, our long range crew starts to discuss the potential for that time frame AND includes (or at least does not rule out) the immediate coast in the potential. Check. Then, at days 5-7, Appy brings the storm back, but downplays the potential with calls of an inch or 1-3” for two or three periods in a row (meaning Monday night, Tuesday day and Tuesday night for example). Check.

Then, as we enter the 4-5 window, the LR crew continues to see the potential for the coast and the App shows at least one Bigtime hit for the coast. And this is now a Check as well, as Appy finally made a call for double digits. In my 7+ years on this board, this has happened for every single good storm to hit the Shore.

I’m the next couple of days, I’d like to see the windshield wipers turn on, bc that also always happens before a good one. I’d also like to see at least one run from each model (including the fickle Euro) which has a Shore Jackpot. Then, the models will downplay it once more. Again, this is our pattern of events leading up to a biggun. Every time.

Finally, 1-2 days out, the S and E potential gets locked in, for better or worse. If the cold front is too strong, the storm can get shunted to the south. If the tracks hugs the coast, we’ll mix or get all rain. Other things can happen too, so I’ll just wait and see.

While bubbling with excitement and optimism!! Lol.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:23 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:Whoa, seems like I ran into a modern day temperance movement over in the long range, so me and my still tempered optimism and excitement will just slide over here to banter for a bit.

Through the eyes of a snow-loving Coastie, this a truly exciting time. The past 5-7 days have followed the script for a Jersey Shore snowstorm to a T.  It starts with Appy showing a big storm at the 10-14 day range. Check. Then as the App loses the storm at the 7-10 day mark, our long range crew starts to discuss the potential for that time frame AND includes (or at least does not rule out) the immediate coast in the potential. Check. Then, at days 5-7, Appy brings the storm back, but downplays the potential with calls of an inch or 1-3” for two or three periods in a row (meaning Monday night, Tuesday day and Tuesday night for example). Check.

Then, as we enter the 4-5 window, the LR crew continues to see the potential for the coast and the App shows at least one Bigtime hit for the coast. And this is now a Check as well, as Appy finally made a call for double digits. In my 7+ years on this board, this has happened for every single good storm to hit the Shore.

I’m the next couple of days, I’d like to see the windshield wipers turn on, bc that also always happens before a good one. I’d also like to see at least one run from each model (including the fickle Euro) which has a Shore Jackpot. Then, the models will downplay it once more. Again, this is our pattern of events leading up to a biggun. Every time.

Finally, 1-2 days out, the S and E potential gets locked in, for better or worse. If the cold front is too strong, the storm can get shunted to the south. If the tracks hugs the coast, we’ll mix or get all rain. Other things can happen too, so I’ll just wait and see.

While bubbling with excitement and optimism!! Lol.

I really hope for your sake it does, but I have to save you from yourself and let you know it won't. It's for your own good.

Repeat these words 100 times before you fall asleep tonight and you will finally be cured of your snow addiction.

I live on the coast
It doesn't snow here
During January rain
I won't shed a tear
I may get some flooding
I may get some mix
What I won't get is snow
Or my bi-yearly snow fix

Consider yourself cured. You're welcome.
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Post by docstox12 Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:34 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
SENJsnowman wrote:Whoa, seems like I ran into a modern day temperance movement over in the long range, so me and my still tempered optimism and excitement will just slide over here to banter for a bit.

Through the eyes of a snow-loving Coastie, this a truly exciting time. The past 5-7 days have followed the script for a Jersey Shore snowstorm to a T.  It starts with Appy showing a big storm at the 10-14 day range. Check. Then as the App loses the storm at the 7-10 day mark, our long range crew starts to discuss the potential for that time frame AND includes (or at least does not rule out) the immediate coast in the potential. Check. Then, at days 5-7, Appy brings the storm back, but downplays the potential with calls of an inch or 1-3” for two or three periods in a row (meaning Monday night, Tuesday day and Tuesday night for example). Check.

Then, as we enter the 4-5 window, the LR crew continues to see the potential for the coast and the App shows at least one Bigtime hit for the coast. And this is now a Check as well, as Appy finally made a call for double digits. In my 7+ years on this board, this has happened for every single good storm to hit the Shore.

I’m the next couple of days, I’d like to see the windshield wipers turn on, bc that also always happens before a good one. I’d also like to see at least one run from each model (including the fickle Euro) which has a Shore Jackpot. Then, the models will downplay it once more. Again, this is our pattern of events leading up to a biggun. Every time.

Finally, 1-2 days out, the S and E potential gets locked in, for better or worse. If the cold front is too strong, the storm can get shunted to the south. If the tracks hugs the coast, we’ll mix or get all rain. Other things can happen too, so I’ll just wait and see.

While bubbling with excitement and optimism!! Lol.

I really hope for your sake it does, but I have to save you from yourself and let you know it won't. It's for your own good.

Repeat these words 100 times before you fall asleep tonight and you will finally be cured of your snow addiction.

I live on the coast
It doesn't snow here
During January rain
I won't shed a tear
I may get some flooding
I may get some mix
What I won't get is snow
Or my bi-yearly snow fix

Consider yourself cured. You're welcome.

I would take a more direct approach in helping the poor man deal with yet another cutter in a world of snow deprivation! It helped me in the winter of 1972-1973 with a few measly inches all told!
After my therapeutic suggestion, I don't think he will able to recite your excellent poem, however.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZOwvTGSTss
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Post by SENJsnowman Sat Jan 13, 2024 5:48 am

It's so interesting. All of my comments yesterday were very qualified with caution. I even excused myself over to the banter room. And yet, I still might have managed to Mush this thing! I mean, what would the snow Gods have me do, go still and silent all the way up until the flakes fly?! Ugh, what a boring and trivial existence!

I've recited the poem and downed the Jack. (Btw, I even share the last name of the unseen co-star of the film, a 20 year old sophomore from Emily Dickenson College who met her tragic demise in an on-campus kiln explosion. As of now, I have no no established relationship to her though...).

Maybe, CP is right. There is no such thing as the Jersey Shore bi-yearly snow fix and the threat for the 15th-16th is just not going to come to fruition. I think it's best that I just let it all go and accept the new reality. Wall to Wing forever. The snow lover in me is no more, I'll just let it fade to black.

Oh! Did anybody happen to see the 6z GFS for next weekend...

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/a0e39722-de1d-4007-b1f2-e3e4b3e220df

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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 13, 2024 9:54 am

SENJ, I recommend you turn your attention to the threat next Friday night into Saturday. It looks better on the models at the moment than Tuesday and will give you at least a few days of optimism before likely crushing hopes again.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Jan 13, 2024 10:24 am

billg315 wrote:SENJ, I recommend you turn your attention to the threat next Friday night into Saturday. It looks better on the models at the moment than Tuesday and will give you at least a few days of optimism before likely crushing hopes again.

I feel like these two trying to capture a Miller A area wide Godzilla!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9L1_2sl8kmM
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 13, 2024 12:52 pm

Im trying so hard to not write off this whole winter but now looks like minor event if anything tues probably the same next fri and we are nearing feb which was mentioned to not be a good month for snow. By march i am ready for warmth and garage sale flea markets opening though that too is a thing of past cuz march is now winter. Ugg im just annoyed sorry.

On plus side i dont have to bundle up or shovel.
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Post by phil155 Sat Jan 13, 2024 12:56 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Im trying so hard to not write off this whole winter but now looks like minor event if anything tues probably the same next fri and we are nearing feb which was mentioned to not be a good month for snow. By march i am ready for warmth and garage sale flea markets opening though that too is a thing of past cuz march is now winter. Ugg im just annoyed sorry.


I would not write off February just yet, Bobby Martrich over at epwa has been consistently saying it should be good. At the end of the day, I don't know but I would think if we can get any sort of sustainable cold we should do ok, whether or not that happens remains to be seen. I would like to see some meaningful snow but if February turns out warm I will make the best of it and get more time training for time trial season

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Post by SENJsnowman Sat Jan 13, 2024 1:43 pm

phil155 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Im trying so hard to not write off this whole winter but now looks like minor event if anything tues probably the same next fri and we are nearing feb which was mentioned to not be a good month for snow. By march i am ready for warmth and garage sale flea markets opening though that too is a thing of past cuz march is now winter. Ugg im just annoyed sorry.


I would not write off February just yet, Bobby Martrich over at epwa has been consistently saying it should be good. At the end of the day, I don't know but I would think if we can get any sort of sustainable cold we should do ok, whether or not that happens remains to be seen. I would like to see some meaningful snow but if February turns out warm I will make the best of it and get more time training for time trial season

And I FOR SURE would not write off next weekend!

Bill, CP, Doc thanks for reaching out in this trying time. I believe that the 2 consecutive runs of the GFS showing our WHOLE AREA getting crushed has been the splash of cold water that this unyielding winter weather optimist needed! It's definitely gonna end up being a coastal hugger, but until then Viva la GFS at 162 hours!!!

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 13, 2024 2:11 pm

“No, never said our winters are over. They're just changed, more mild and I don't see that changing any time soon. I wish we could fast-forward 25-50 years and see the days of what those passed winters look like. Change is literally happening all around us. The mass extinction event happening with plants and animals should be a clear sign of that change and cannot be ignored.”

This gets back to the last discussion that we had on this topic haha if we lose December as a “winter” month, but pick up more “winter” in March and opening week of April, which is being observed with colder/snowier March’s and April’s, and even May’s, and the heart of “winter” being observed in January - February - March as opposed to December - January - February, are “winters” actually getting milder, or, is it that “winter” is shifting out of our subjective construct of the time period of “winter”? That shift demonstrates the inherent feedback resistance to the input of water vapor, btw, and shows that the warming that is occurring is far from runaway.

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Post by GreyBeard Sat Jan 13, 2024 3:18 pm

Are winters really getting warmer? This video says yes and no. I guess it all depends on how you look at it.




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Post by SENJsnowman Sat Jan 13, 2024 3:39 pm

The 10 day for Pierre, SD. They will not get above 0* for another 3+ days and won't be above freezing until next Sunday.*

Banter Thread 9.0 Pierre10




*This post is provided for informational/entertainment purposes only and in no way is intended to be responsive to any previous post on this or any other thread.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Jan 13, 2024 4:30 pm

Banter Thread 9.0 Screen23
My inlaws live in Iowa..🥶🥶
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Post by SENJsnowman Sat Jan 13, 2024 4:38 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:Banter Thread 9.0 Screen23
My inlaws live in Iowa..🥶🥶

All the Iowans are gonna be out in their shorts and tank tops next Sunday. Lol!   Shocked

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Post by SENJsnowman Sat Jan 13, 2024 4:54 pm

I'm putting this in banter because I'm model hugging on one run of one model that's not really even in its range yet, and without doing the first minute of any meteorological analysis. Now, all that said...

For those South and East, the 18z NAM is all but begging us to stay engaged in the midweek threat.

Banter Thread 9.0 Nam18z10

The map above is as of 06z Wednesday (which I believe equates to 1 am Wednesday) and is at the end of the NAM 84 hour range. It might not even depict the full extent of the snowfall for the 18z run. Here is what the radar shows for the same time:

Banter Thread 9.0 Nam18z11

I guess without blocking and with a progressive flow, it would be a quick mover (???), but just at face value that looks to me like accumulating snow is still falling.

GFS 18z is running now, so it might very well throw a bucket of water on this tiny spark of hope, but for those on the coastal plain, I invite you to enjoy this moment of hope provided by the NAM.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 13, 2024 6:29 pm

Wow, I saw the banter in LR and all I can say is people need to cool their jets. I find it funny certain individuals called me out years ago for being the negtive person all the time and I am being far from that now, in fact not even posting all that much, that stuff just is not worth my time. I am still skeptical but far from being completely negative. But as I said earlier it is what it is, snow is not life, do I enjoy of course. if I didn't I wouldn't be a part of this forum but I really have so much more to life than weather. Honestly I even have put the insane interest in wind to rest, today has been crazy windy and no WA, yet last night was calm as could be. Again what will happen will happen and theres always surprises for better or worse. Thjats all I gotta say, and cheers to those that are keeping hope alive, I hope it works out. Would love to see some white.
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 13, 2024 6:51 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:I'm putting this in banter because I'm model hugging on one run of one model that's not really even in its range yet, and without doing the first minute of any meteorological analysis. Now, all that said...

For those South and East, the 18z NAM is all but begging us to stay engaged in the midweek threat.

Banter Thread 9.0 Nam18z10

The map above is as of 06z Wednesday (which I believe equates to 1 am Wednesday) and is at the end of the NAM 84 hour range. It might not even depict the full extent of the snowfall for the 18z run. Here is what the radar shows for the same time:

Banter Thread 9.0 Nam18z11

I guess without blocking and with a progressive flow, it would be a quick mover (???), but just at face value that looks to me like accumulating snow is still falling.

GFS 18z is running now, so it might very well throw a bucket of water on this tiny spark of hope, but for those on the coastal plain, I invite you to enjoy this moment of hope provided by the NAM.

Step 5 of the winter storm tracking process told ya lol!

Perfectly acceptable haha

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Post by WeatherBob Sat Jan 13, 2024 8:10 pm

I love you guys, all the “steady as she goes” contributors. All of you do such fine research and analysis of many meteorological conditions . I have learned a lot and the personalities on here make it fun !
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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 14, 2024 12:26 am

WeatherBob wrote:I love you guys, all the “steady as she goes” contributors.  All of you do such fine research and analysis of many meteorological  conditions .  I have learned a lot and the personalities on here make it fun !

You should post more

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 14, 2024 6:02 am

GreyBeard wrote:Are winters really getting warmer? This video says yes and no. I guess it all depends on how you look at it.




lol! lol! lol!

That is one heck of a woman there!!!
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