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Another Cutter oh My! January 12th-13th storm observations

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1190ftalt
rb924119
NJBear
sroc4
HectorO
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 11, 2024 8:13 pm

We have yet another cutter coming, albeit not as strong but it is only going to take moderate rains and moderate winds to cause flooding and some downed trees. Please post your observations and reports here of flooding and winds. Looking like 1-2+ inches of rain and wind gusts 40mph to maybe 50+ on shore and LI. Also any last minute tracking of the system that might increase or decrease impacts.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Jan 11, 2024 8:20 pm

Not doing it. I'm boycotting this thread and I'm urging everyone in the northeast to do the same. You know my feeling about cutters, they're one notch above Isis.
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Post by amugs Thu Jan 11, 2024 8:30 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Not doing it. I'm boycotting this thread and I'm urging everyone in the northeast to do the same. You know my feeling about cutters, they're one notch above Isis.

Laughing Laughing Laughing

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 11, 2024 8:33 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Not doing it. I'm boycotting this thread and I'm urging everyone in the northeast to do the same. You know my feeling about cutters, they're one notch above Isis.
Hey if anything posting this will jinx it in a good way right. I think it is important we document the troubles that these rivers have, who knows we may be able to come up with a way to help.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 11, 2024 9:49 pm

Thanks Jon for starting this thread!

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Post by docstox12 Fri Jan 12, 2024 6:00 am

jmanley32 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Not doing it. I'm boycotting this thread and I'm urging everyone in the northeast to do the same. You know my feeling about cutters, they're one notch above Isis.
Hey if anything posting this will jinx it in a good way right. I think it is important we document the troubles that these rivers have, who knows we may be able to come up with a way to help.

Your right about the rivers.Up here,I saw yesterday the Ramapo River is almost at the top of it's bank and a local stream near me is roaring full which I have not seen in 20 years up here.The ground is soaked here after 2 to 3 inches of rain all told and melting of a 10 inch or so snowpack.Guess the only good thing to say is the reservoirs will be 100% full.
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Post by docstox12 Fri Jan 12, 2024 6:05 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Not doing it. I'm boycotting this thread and I'm urging everyone in the northeast to do the same. You know my feeling about cutters, they're one notch above Isis.

LOL, CP, mentioning a cutter to me is like showing a mirror or cross to Dracula.Same with anti virga, suppression, warm nose, dry slot and mixing.
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Post by Grselig Fri Jan 12, 2024 7:38 am

docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Not doing it. I'm boycotting this thread and I'm urging everyone in the northeast to do the same. You know my feeling about cutters, they're one notch above Isis.

LOL, CP, mentioning a cutter to me is like showing a mirror or cross to Dracula.Same with anti virga, suppression, warm nose, dry slot and mixing.

Don’t forget “Mixed Bag”.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 12, 2024 7:49 am

Flood watch up for all of nj southern ny including nyc and wind advisory for nyc southern westchester coastal nj snd LI. Rain doesnt move in until this evening and is in and out quick. I wonder if there will b any brief snow for rb and heehaw. And thunder is a posdibility this time.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 12, 2024 9:02 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by deadrabbit79 Fri Jan 12, 2024 8:53 am

So I guess with this latest addition of a rain storm the concern is not so much the amount of rain….generally 1-2 inches…but its the fact that its coming on the heels of Tuesday’s 2,3, and 4 inches for some and another 1-2 just has nowhere to go?

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 12, 2024 9:00 am

deadrabbit79 wrote:So I guess with this latest addition of a rain storm the concern is not so much the amount of rain….generally 1-2 inches…but its the fact that its coming on the heels of Tuesday’s 2,3, and 4 inches for some and another 1-2 just has nowhere to go?
yes but locally 2+ urban flooding is posdible too and its coming down in a short period of time. 3km nam shows another squall like line near the end.
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Post by phil155 Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:01 am

2 inches of rain now and wind, even if the winds are 70% of what we saw the other day can be very big problem. The ground s super saturated so it will not take much to be a big problem

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 12, 2024 11:02 am

Upton's briefing. Cannot post the images click the link to see it. many impacts expected, albeit not as severe as last time. Of course watch when they predict less it is worse than when they predict worse lol, hopefully not. In terms of winds sounds like there will be Inversion so winds will only partially mix down.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/01122024_am_public.pdf
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 12, 2024 11:11 am

I'm still boycotting this thread. Don't support GLCs, these storms live off of this.
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Post by docstox12 Fri Jan 12, 2024 11:22 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote: I'm still boycotting this thread. Don't support  GLCs, these storms live off of this.

lol! lol! lol!
I agree, the negative mental forces associated rise up and change the pattern for the worse,LOL.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 12, 2024 11:37 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote: I'm still boycotting this thread. Don't support  GLCs, these storms live off of this.
Go ahead, but i am hoping this can set us up for the 16th and I hope we all get a good snow, though you already got 10+, how do you think we feel down here? And I never said I like them, I just want to track it, then we move onto the 16th which will be fun for all of us to track, I HOPE.
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Post by HectorO Fri Jan 12, 2024 11:59 am

I've never seen so many flood watches/ warnings in my life. And I used to live in FL.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 12, 2024 12:02 pm

HectorO wrote:I've never seen so many flood watches/ warnings in my life. And I used to live in FL.
This is what I am talking about and why I want to document these for the archives, not all have been tracked but from last year till now I can imagine it has to be at least two dozen times. We cannot deny that the output of precipitation has been extremem, what is causing it is what I am curious about, it was not like this and if it had been in the past we usually got a ton of snow. NWS is now mentioning possible flash flooding, though this will be a fast mover it will be heavy rain in a short period of time and winds only need to be really upwards of 30-40mph to cause uprootings as has been stated by mugs and the NWS due to a southerly wind (I never know the wind direction had a big part in that and how trees grow.) Not hoping this happen's but it appears to be a possibility, don't shoot the messenger.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 12, 2024 12:24 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
HectorO wrote:I've never seen so many flood watches/ warnings in my life. And I used to live in FL.
This is what I am talking about and why I want to document these for the archives, not all have been tracked but from last year till now I can imagine it has to be at least two dozen times. We cannot deny that the output of precipitation has been extremem, what is causing it is what I am curious about, it was not like this and if it had been in the past we usually got a ton of snow. NWS is now mentioning possible flash flooding, though this will be a fast mover it will be heavy rain in a short period of time and winds only need to be really upwards of 30-40mph to cause uprootings as has been stated by mugs and the NWS due to a southerly wind (I never know the wind direction had a big part in that and how trees grow.) Not hoping this happen's but it appears to be a possibility, don't shoot the messenger.

In large part it is the slow; sometimes rapid, yet steady and progressive Urbanization and deforestation(root system of which would absorb some water) combined with mountainous and hilly terrain such that normal run off patterns have been complexly disrupted by man made infrastructure.  Combine that with modern technology to predict and disseminate the information.  I used to have to check part 2 of Newsday or watch TWC for long range forecasts.  We often didnt hear about half this stuff because unless it was covered by the legacy media outlets, or if you lived in an area affected it just wasn't common knowledge.  Also combined with a year that is a mod El Nino which tends to be an active stormy pattern into the northeast anyway.  

Or perhaps we blame it all on CO2 emissions and man made global warming.  Wink geek


Last edited by sroc4 on Fri Jan 12, 2024 2:43 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 12, 2024 12:39 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
HectorO wrote:I've never seen so many flood watches/ warnings in my life. And I used to live in FL.
This is what I am talking about and why I want to document these for the archives, not all have been tracked but from last year till now I can imagine it has to be at least two dozen times. We cannot deny that the output of precipitation has been extremem, what is causing it is what I am curious about, it was not like this and if it had been in the past we usually got a ton of snow. NWS is now mentioning possible flash flooding, though this will be a fast mover it will be heavy rain in a short period of time and winds only need to be really upwards of 30-40mph to cause uprootings as has been stated by mugs and the NWS due to a southerly wind (I never know the wind direction had a big part in that and how trees grow.) Not hoping this happen's but it appears to be a possibility, don't shoot the messenger.

In large part it is the slow; sometimes rapid, yet steady and progressive Urbanization and deforestation combined with mountainous and hilly terrain such that normal run off patterns have been complexly disrupted by man made infrastructure.  Combine that with modern technology to predict and disseminate the information.  I used to have to check part 2 of Newsday or watch TWC for long range forecasts.  We often didnt hear about half this stuff because unless it was covered by the legacy media outlets, or if you lived in an area affected it just wasn't common knowledge.  Also combined with a year that is a mod El Nino which tends to be an active stormy pattern into the northeast anyway.  

Or perhaps we blame it all on CO2 emissions and man made global warming.  Wink geek
Good points, we def did not have the outlets and knwoedge we have now, had to resort to TWC (which was much better when John Hope etc was there, and it wasn't all shows.) Ehh! I didn't go there lol. Though i do believe in global warming (I believe it has been said that it does indeed exist) I don't have evnough evidence to back anything to it being caused by us humans therefore I will not comment on something i cannot back.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 12, 2024 12:47 pm

Anyone know what it is looking like down south in terms of latent heat release and intensity of the system right now? My only fear is that this might over perform in a bad way.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 12, 2024 1:44 pm

The NAM is impressive with rain amounts across NNJ and NYC

Another Cutter oh My! January 12th-13th storm observations Namconus_apcpn_neus_9

It is fast moving though. In around 7pm tonight out by 5am tomorrow morning.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 12, 2024 2:38 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The NAM is impressive with rain amounts across NNJ and NYC

Another Cutter oh My! January 12th-13th storm observations Namconus_apcpn_neus_9

It is fast moving though. In around 7pm tonight out by 5am tomorrow morning.
Still, not good Frank, a inch of rain is enough, NWS mentions very high PWAT values 1.1-1.5 I believe and a increase in possible localized 2+ amounts (which the 3km NAM is now showing), some instability so possible thunder/lightning and although winds seem to be lower than last time it won't take much to cause issues with downed trees, with the winds projected overland it would be more of a uprooting threat than a branches issue IMO, hopefully it is not too bad and is it possible this system helps for the 16th or could it be a deterrant to the 16th?
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 12, 2024 2:40 pm

Oy...

CTZ008>011-NJZ006-106-108-NYZ071>075-078-080-176>179-122130-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0002.240113T0300Z-240113T1100Z/
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Hudson-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Southwest Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
524 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey
and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 12, 2024 2:40 pm

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-130400-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WI.Y.0003.240113T0100Z-240113T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.HW.W.0002.240113T0100Z-240113T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WI.Y.0004.240113T1000Z-240113T2200Z/
Delaware Beaches-Eastern Monmouth-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Including the cities of Rehoboth Beach, Sandy Hook, Ocean City,
Atlantic City, and Long Beach Island
1005 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
SATURDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the High Wind Warning, southeast winds 30 to 40 mph
with gusts of 50 to 60 mph expected. For the Wind Advisory,
southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph
expected.

* WHERE...In Delaware, Delaware Beaches. In New Jersey, Eastern
Monmouth, Atlantic Coastal Cape May, Coastal Atlantic and
Coastal Ocean.

* WHEN...For the High Wind Warning, from 8 PM this evening to 5
AM EST Saturday. For the Wind Advisory, from 5 AM to 5 PM EST
Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Southeast winds will increase this evening.
Extremely saturated soils due to previous rainfall events may
result in trees and power poles being more more susceptible to
wind. Sporadic wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible along the
immediate coastline. Winds will diminish somewhat and shift to
the west Saturday morning with gusts up to 50 mph.
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