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Another Cutter oh My! January 12th-13th storm observations

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1190ftalt
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 12, 2024 2:40 pm

Oy...

CTZ008>011-NJZ006-106-108-NYZ071>075-078-080-176>179-122130-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0002.240113T0300Z-240113T1100Z/
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Hudson-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Southwest Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
524 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey
and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 12, 2024 2:40 pm

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-130400-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WI.Y.0003.240113T0100Z-240113T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.HW.W.0002.240113T0100Z-240113T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WI.Y.0004.240113T1000Z-240113T2200Z/
Delaware Beaches-Eastern Monmouth-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Including the cities of Rehoboth Beach, Sandy Hook, Ocean City,
Atlantic City, and Long Beach Island
1005 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
SATURDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the High Wind Warning, southeast winds 30 to 40 mph
with gusts of 50 to 60 mph expected. For the Wind Advisory,
southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph
expected.

* WHERE...In Delaware, Delaware Beaches. In New Jersey, Eastern
Monmouth, Atlantic Coastal Cape May, Coastal Atlantic and
Coastal Ocean.

* WHEN...For the High Wind Warning, from 8 PM this evening to 5
AM EST Saturday. For the Wind Advisory, from 5 AM to 5 PM EST
Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Southeast winds will increase this evening.
Extremely saturated soils due to previous rainfall events may
result in trees and power poles being more more susceptible to
wind. Sporadic wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible along the
immediate coastline. Winds will diminish somewhat and shift to
the west Saturday morning with gusts up to 50 mph.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 12, 2024 2:48 pm

NAM peak wind gusts, for about a 3-5 hr period between 40-60mph, highest along coast. These may be overdone but who knows. As we know winds are very hard to predict.

Another Cutter oh My! January 12th-13th storm observations - Page 2 Us_mod12
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Post by phil155 Fri Jan 12, 2024 3:44 pm

jmanley32 wrote:NAM peak wind gusts, for about a 3-5 hr period between 40-60mph, highest along coast. These may be overdone but who knows. As we know winds are very hard to predict.

Another Cutter oh My! January 12th-13th storm observations - Page 2 Us_mod12

I would think and hoe again that these re overdone, I would think that we see 70-75% of these numbers may up to 80%, Again I am sort of hoping here because I really don't want to lose power. The problem is that the winds IMHO don't need to be a strong and the rain does not need to be as heavy this time to cause SERIOUS issues because of the damage done a few days ago and from the storms in December

If this system over performs we are in bad shape

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 12, 2024 4:19 pm

phil155 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:NAM peak wind gusts, for about a 3-5 hr period between 40-60mph, highest along coast. These may be overdone but who knows. As we know winds are very hard to predict.

Another Cutter oh My! January 12th-13th storm observations - Page 2 Us_mod12

I would think and hoe again that these re overdone, I would think that we see 70-75% of these numbers may up to 80%, Again I am sort of hoping here because I really don't want to lose power. The problem is that the winds IMHO don't need to be a strong and the rain does not need to be as heavy this time to cause SERIOUS issues because of the damage done a few days ago and from the storms in December

If this system over performs we are in bad shape
I am inclined to think it may be even less than 70%, 3km NAM though some areas did verify last time it was very sporafdic. And I agree 30-45mph will be enough to cause major issues and I think NWS has put out appropriate advisories and warnings based on models. Though if NAm winds verify a HWW sould have been issued instead of a WA. But they also mentioned at least yesterday that there will be strong inversion so if that holds they may have trouble mixing down and I am not sure if these wind maps take that into consideration.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 12, 2024 5:02 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
phil155 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:NAM peak wind gusts, for about a 3-5 hr period between 40-60mph, highest along coast. These may be overdone but who knows. As we know winds are very hard to predict.

Another Cutter oh My! January 12th-13th storm observations - Page 2 Us_mod12

I would think and hoe again that these re overdone, I would think that we see 70-75% of these numbers may up to 80%, Again I am sort of hoping here because I really don't want to lose power. The problem is that the winds IMHO don't need to be a strong and the rain does not need to be as heavy this time to cause SERIOUS issues because of the damage done a few days ago and from the storms in December

If this system over performs we are in bad shape
I am inclined to think it may be even less than 70%, 3km NAM though some areas did verify last time it was very sporafdic. And I agree 30-45mph will be enough to cause major issues and I think NWS has put out appropriate advisories and warnings based on models.  Though if NAm winds verify a HWW sould have been issued instead of a WA. But they also mentioned at least yesterday that there will be strong inversion so if that holds they may have trouble mixing down and I am not sure if these wind maps take that into consideration.

The precip of 1-2 inches if it occurs will be a problem. However When aren't these wind maps overdone though. It's hard to ever take them serious verbatim.

Damn it, just realized I violated my boycott on this thread.
.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 12, 2024 5:25 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
phil155 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:NAM peak wind gusts, for about a 3-5 hr period between 40-60mph, highest along coast. These may be overdone but who knows. As we know winds are very hard to predict.

Another Cutter oh My! January 12th-13th storm observations - Page 2 Us_mod12

I would think and hoe again that these re overdone, I would think that we see 70-75% of these numbers may up to 80%, Again I am sort of hoping here because I really don't want to lose power. The problem is that the winds IMHO don't need to be a strong and the rain does not need to be as heavy this time to cause SERIOUS issues because of the damage done a few days ago and from the storms in December

If this system over performs we are in bad shape
I am inclined to think it may be even less than 70%, 3km NAM though some areas did verify last time it was very sporafdic. And I agree 30-45mph will be enough to cause major issues and I think NWS has put out appropriate advisories and warnings based on models.  Though if NAm winds verify a HWW sould have been issued instead of a WA. But they also mentioned at least yesterday that there will be strong inversion so if that holds they may have trouble mixing down and I am not sure if these wind maps take that into consideration.

The precip of 1-2 inches if it occurs will be a problem. However When aren't these wind maps overdone though. It's hard to ever take them serious verbatim.

Damn it, just realized I violated my boycott on this thread.
.
Ahahahah, can't take it back now! But you are 100% right, they usually are. Sorry your feeling so bummed about this winter my prayers are with you that after this we have all mega snowstorms. But again you already doubled my snow total from last year....So i dunno who should be complaining. This is new norm for me so it's all I have to track and observe.
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Post by NJBear Fri Jan 12, 2024 9:51 pm

Looks like Mother Nature is after central PA and Accuweather this time around.

Another Cutter oh My! January 12th-13th storm observations - Page 2 Firesh15
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 12, 2024 9:55 pm

Brief burst of wintry mix right at the beginning and then right to rain. Definitely had some gusts similar to the other night, though.

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Post by NJBear Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:12 pm

Eastern Hunterdon NJ-light rain and a gusty wind. NWS latest- up to 2 inches of rain locally and 40-50 mph gusts inland and 50-60 along the coast. Tuesday is a coin toss for accumulating snow.
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Post by 1190ftalt Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:14 pm

Sleeting, Snowing and raining at 10:09 in the pm, temperature is 38 degrees, stay dry,
     Good Luck!Another Cutter oh My! January 12th-13th storm observations - Page 2 5a887b10
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Post by docstox12 Fri Jan 12, 2024 11:08 pm

40 degrees, light rain and wind is now howling.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 12, 2024 11:13 pm

Moderate rain, no wind from what I can hear yet.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 12, 2024 11:35 pm

Wind is as strong as last storm here for sure, gusting 40-45mph.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Jan 12, 2024 11:37 pm

Winds picking up currently 18mph and rain moderate
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 12, 2024 11:43 pm

rb924119 wrote:Wind is as strong as last storm here for sure, gusting 40-45mph.
you win, calm as can be here lol
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Jan 13, 2024 12:59 am

Rain picked up so did winds
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Post by silentwreck Sat Jan 13, 2024 1:11 am

Gusty winds up to 49-51 MPH with heavy rain in my area.

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Post by silentwreck Sat Jan 13, 2024 1:12 am

I must say, the winds seems to be verifying a lot the past few storms… usually it’s overdone

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Jan 13, 2024 4:03 am

Was dead asleep phone rang costal flood warning
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Post by docstox12 Sat Jan 13, 2024 6:10 am

49 degrees, cloudy, breezy.Winds were howling at 11:30 PM ,now just breezy.Nowhere as much rain as the last cutter either.
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 13, 2024 8:07 am

51 degrees and skies are clearing. Had about .8" of rain and some gusty winds at times. This one much gentler and quicker to clear out than the last one. Last one was the real deal...

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Post by richb521 Sat Jan 13, 2024 9:42 am

56 degrees. Mostly cloudy with winds picking up. Temps slowly dropping. About 3/4 inch of rainfall. No further reports of flooding near here so far so that’s good news.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Jan 13, 2024 10:59 am

58* mostly sunny we got 1.09 inches of rain in this last storm... gusty winds this morning with one just passing at 26 mph overall a nice SPRING morning. GFS Model GFS Model
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 13, 2024 12:41 pm

Very windy today howling. No wind last night lol. 54 and raining. Was not expect rain today. Car is shaking in wind.
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