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JAN 28th-30th 2024 Potential system compliments of a +PNA

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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 26, 2024 4:45 pm

Yes some of the more aggressive forecasts for this end of week warm-up were overdone. Only got up to about 49* here today and it was a raw/chilly 49*. Earlier this week some forecasts had me in the upper 50s today. Probably doesn't mean much for Sunday though. As pointed out above by heehaw and scott this really depends on the storm intensifying enough to pull in and create it's own cold air source. Except areas N and W where I think the chances of some accumulating snow are pretty decent regardless.

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 26, 2024 5:52 pm

Earlier this week I had co workers saying to me at lunch, it's going to be 60 Friday and a nice weekend and I said I don't buy it this Thaw is short lived. Look at next week's temps are tye storm? 
And the storm is too early as said above, whenever you move up 24hrs a storm will inevitably fail somehow. IF this came in as pronged 2 days ago Sunday night into Modday Monday, tye HP has time to then get in place  and sag a bit S, now it'll feel that LP primary and back off s bit. Paths of least resistance in weather n nature.  Time will tell but 18Z GFS is at the bar looking at the shanty SROC pictured above  still holds onto to a decent snow until it wakes up and shift 75 miles NW. 
Shame......again.
End of the week has a wild set up IF true but that'll change of course.

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 27, 2024 7:44 am

No change to thoughts on snow with this one. 06Z GFS might be a bit stingy. I would call 1-3" well NW the City 3"+ for the most highly elevated areas above 1500'. For those that salvage something from this enjoy.

JAN 28th-30th 2024 Potential system compliments of a +PNA - Page 4 Euro153
JAN 28th-30th 2024 Potential system compliments of a +PNA - Page 4 Gfs199

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Post by docstox12 Sat Jan 27, 2024 8:46 am

NWS going with the GFS for my area.Less than an inch.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 27, 2024 8:52 am

Should be a very frustrating inch or two total for this atm.

Nothing worse than being right on the line 33-34 and watching it to back to rain snow and nothing to show for it.

Bring on February.
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 27, 2024 2:26 pm

docstox12 wrote:NWS going with the GFS for my area.Less than an inch.

I think NWS is using this model guidance for the snow output which basically gives you guys a coating in Orange Cty. The setup is not that horrendous IMO for your area. I think you guys at 600'+ ASL squeak an inch or two out. I also think Poconos > 1500' can squeak out 2-3". Monticello at 1600' 3"+.

JAN 28th-30th 2024 Potential system compliments of a +PNA - Page 4 Nws17

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Post by dkodgis Sat Jan 27, 2024 7:25 pm

It seems to be trending colder. Slightly
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 27, 2024 10:09 pm

dkodgis wrote:It seems to be trending colder. Slightly

I think Hunter Mt is going to do quite well probably 7" at base and maybe 10" at summit so great for ski resorts. Think it takes above 1500' to see anything above an inch or two. The air mass at mid-levels and surface is just too marginal IMO w/out elevation. But again the setup is not bad synoptically so let's say the H is stronger and pushes in a bit faster. Well that cools things down a degree or two and has large implications for border line areas. Not out of the question IMO and Orange Cty would be that borderline area...

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 27, 2024 10:41 pm

I'll be interested to see how the critical thickness lines change in the next 12 hours. As it stands now it's very hostile for snowfall here...

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Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 28, 2024 6:39 am

35 degrees, heavy rain, slight breeze.


Last edited by docstox12 on Sun Jan 28, 2024 7:49 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 28, 2024 7:34 am

Critical thickness still bad for the area. The storm will start to transfer as that happens the atmosphere will cool for the interior. The slightest bit of antecedent cold air and for the interior this would be 6"+ snowstorm. Synoptically decent and yet at end January and we are raining .  

Tired Mad  Tired Mad  Tired Mad

JAN 28th-30th 2024 Potential system compliments of a +PNA - Page 4 Crtica10
JAN 28th-30th 2024 Potential system compliments of a +PNA - Page 4 Surfac42

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Jan 28, 2024 7:34 am

34.5 and heavy rain.  This is the stuff nightmares are made of. Great storm track, heavy precip, time of year where the average temp is 35/16 and this is what we get. Someone make the madness of the last two years stop.

13.5 inches on the season and doubting we add anything to that today.
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 28, 2024 7:50 am

37.5/37.5 .77" in the bucket moderate to heavy rain for several hours. Backyard saturated with ponds forming. Feels like beginning of April weather in heart of winter.

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Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 28, 2024 7:50 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:34.5 and heavy rain.  This is the stuff nightmares are made of. Great storm track, heavy precip, time of year where the average temp is 35/16 and this is what we get. Someone make the madness of the last two years stop.

13.5 inches on the season and doubting we add anything to that today.

This one really is a kick in the head for us HV guys CP.This is a Catskill Special.Frank summed it up best by giving this Wall an F so far.
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 28, 2024 7:59 am

The latest NWS snowfall run is bleak for snow. I think any hope for this one is like thinking this guy could win the US Open.





JAN 28th-30th 2024 Potential system compliments of a +PNA - Page 4 Snowfa21

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Jan 28, 2024 8:49 am

34.2 and a 50/50 mix of rain and snow. Riding that line. Would think 20 miles north of me by Damian should be all snow. Also NW Jersey above 1,000 feet should be all snow too.
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Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 28, 2024 8:54 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:34.2 and a 50/50 mix of rain and snow. Riding that line. Would think 20 miles north of me by Damian should be all snow. Also NW Jersey above 1,000 feet should be all snow too.

Same here CP, rain/snow mix now.
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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 28, 2024 8:59 am

37.7/34 with heavy rain And .6 in the bucket. Just miserable.

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Post by dkodgis Sun Jan 28, 2024 9:52 am

From 9 to 9:30ish it snowed. A quiet dusting of snow everywhere. I imagine it is not sticking to the roads but I am too lazy to go look. 33 right now with a projected high of 36.

I get what I get and I like what I get.
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 28, 2024 10:30 am

Mid-levels are starting to transfer off the Va/NC coast. That will pull colder air down. The problem is the initial slug of moisture was .85" IMBY. That's probably most of it so whatever snowfall does fall won't amount to much but a trace. Still think Orange Cty can see an inch or even 2" IF the coastal gets going enough. If not won't much more than a coating.

This is a case of the H being a day late and a dollar short coupled with a bad initial air mass. Change either one of those two things completely different animal with the synoptics.

850mb temps
JAN 28th-30th 2024 Potential system compliments of a +PNA - Page 4 Midlev18
JAN 28th-30th 2024 Potential system compliments of a +PNA - Page 4 Midlev17

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Post by dkodgis Sun Jan 28, 2024 10:33 am

Anything that could go wrong did
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Post by SENJsnowman Sun Jan 28, 2024 10:45 am

Hoping for a Sunday miracle for our friends up north and out west. Any amount of accumulating snow, and if that is just not meant to be, at least some nice mood flakes!

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Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Jan 28, 2024 11:58 am

dkodgis wrote:Anything that could go wrong did
The motto of the winter of 2023/24.
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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 28, 2024 12:12 pm





So Im not quite sure how to upload the GIF such that it appears right in the thread without having to click the link, but well I cant.  That said if you click the link above you will see it.  Apparently some of the Hi Res models are potentially hinting at a quick hitting change over between approx 2am and 4am tomorrow am for some of the coastal and eastern sections.  If true, some of us on Long Island could wake to a quick coating to maybe an inch or so in the am.  The link above is the Hrrr, but the 3 and 12k NAM, and possibly 2.5k RGEM are all hinting at it as well.  I guess it boils down to the timing of when the last slug of moisture moves out compared to the temps crashing.  We'll see.  With the MJO in an extremely hostile state this really was never our storm as outlined from the beginning.  Anything squeezed out of this will be a bonus.    

JAN 28th-30th 2024 Potential system compliments of a +PNA - Page 4 1706515200-8FKWPLxBYUM
JAN 28th-30th 2024 Potential system compliments of a +PNA - Page 4 1706518800-kBtWib3p48w
JAN 28th-30th 2024 Potential system compliments of a +PNA - Page 4 1706540400-dzrugBG7raM

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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 28, 2024 12:14 pm

GFS:

JAN 28th-30th 2024 Potential system compliments of a +PNA - Page 4 1706518800-GxgmTyk7ocQ


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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 28, 2024 12:19 pm

dkodgis wrote:Anything that could go wrong did

I disagree Damian.  This pretty much went according to plan given the atmosphere in its current state.  Hostile MJO phase with amplitude.  After all we are in the "Jan Thaw" and had a shot.  Atmosphere appears to be heading back towards a more favorable state over the next 10days or so, give or take, with additional opportunities on the table during that time of transition.  Cautious optimism needed for February.

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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 28, 2024 12:42 pm

JAN 28th-30th 2024 Potential system compliments of a +PNA - Page 4 Gfs-de71

The reality was it was a race between the Arctic HP and the Primary low such that when the transfer took place where was the Arctic HP and how strong was it? See above. Below was the CMC 00z run on the 24th when it showed one of the colder solns. Look at how strong the HP is to our north and to the west, as well as the positioning; esp the one to the north.

JAN 28th-30th 2024 Potential system compliments of a +PNA - Page 4 Gem-al18


Now take a look at the CMC from todays 12z run valid for 1pm today. Notice how far north the HP still is and how much weaker it is in reality compared to the forecast from a four days ago.

JAN 28th-30th 2024 Potential system compliments of a +PNA - Page 4 Gem-al19


Here is your current meso anaysis. If we had an HP parked in the position I have outlined this would be a beast for all with a Miller B transfering off the coast in the position its taking place. A damn shame for sure, but again not to beat the dead horse but with the MJO is in an extremely hostile state, none of this was unexpected.

JAN 28th-30th 2024 Potential system compliments of a +PNA - Page 4 Untitl10







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