Long Range Thread 28.0

[richb521]

Is there going to be more back and forth on the models like the windshield wiper effect for this Friday’s storm? Or is now typically the time the last wipe (trend) is crossing the window so to speak?

[amugs]

NW trends are inevitable this winter.

[Irish]

NW trends are inevitable this winter.

True, but I've read elsewhere that this could be a more Southern event, not up into New England.

[amugs]

NW trends are inevitable this winter.

True, but I've read elsewhere that this could be a more Southern event, not up into New England.

Oh yes and look at the last 3 runs - it was northern fringe into Driscoll Bridge now its snowing up to Albany

Holly is on it already wow!

[amugs]

A major #SSW looks likely to occur tomorrow- check out the new blog post about it! https://t.co/Tf0EFRA9Xc

— Dr. Amy H Butler (@DrAHButler) January 16, 2024

February effects incoming....hopefully!!

[SENJsnowman]

Is there going to be more back and forth on the models like the windshield wiper effect for this Friday’s storm? Or is now typically the time the last wipe (trend) is crossing the window so to speak?

It seems that every snowstorm we get (and also the ones we don’t get) has major forecast fluctuations up until the end. The only time I remember all the models getting locked in even 3 days out was Jan 2015, and we don’t like to talk about that ‘storm’.

So, if we’re lucky the wild ride is just getting started.

[heehaw453]

I've been talking about this trough digging and consolidation, but as important IMO is the wave separation from the departing ULL (today's storm).  The Canadian is separating the departing storm a bit more than the other guidance (Euro/GFS). Storms need room to breathe so to speak and too close together really limits development. We have to see how that trends, but if it's too close this will have a hard ceiling.

12Z Canadian (more impact)

12Z Euro (less impact)

[Carvin]

This storm is the best chance this year not a will it it or won’t it it’s just how much and it can be 1 or it can be around 15 nyc

[tomsriversnowstorm]

So serious question. I am excited that we will get an inch or 2 on Friday. However mid next week looks real warm. So is February setting up to be a warm month or is next week an outlier

[Irish]

So serious question. I am excited that we will get an inch or 2 on Friday. However mid next week looks real warm. So is February setting up to be a warm month or is next week an outlier

Frank commented earlier that after Friday's storm, we will warm up again for the following 10+ days, closing out January. However, once February arrives, we should be game on tracking again.

[tomsriversnowstorm]

Sounds good thank you
quote="Irish"]

So serious question. I am excited that we will get an inch or 2 on Friday. However mid next week looks real warm. So is February setting up to be a warm month or is next week an outlier

Frank commented earlier that after Friday's storm, we will warm up again for the following 10+ days, closing out January. However, once February arrives, we should be game on tracking again.[/quote]

[amugs]

So serious question. I am excited that we will get an inch or 2 on Friday. However mid next week looks real warm. So is February setting up to be a warm month or is next week an outlier

Next week is the typical Jan thaw after an arctic wellndouble arctic outbreak

[heehaw453]

So serious question. I am excited that we will get an inch or 2 on Friday. However mid next week looks real warm. So is February setting up to be a warm month or is next week an outlier

Seems we may be heading into a favorable Pacific pattern (-EPO/+PNA). Probably been since 2014-15 had any consistency with that. Tends to be colder than normal with snowfall chances initially smaller events. Once you get a 50/50 Low in that setup then it can produce big ticket items. It's going to take a big ticket item IMO for most on this board to get anywhere close to normal snowfall this season.

[NJBear]

Might as well. Something is brewing. The weather doesn't know that we started thread, it's gonna do what it's gonna do.

Are you sure? -cue spooky music-   I mean how does the weather KNOW where I-95 and I-78 are?

[jmanley32]

Anyone know if rb is okay? I just realized I did not see him for this storm nor the cutter, hope he is okay. I would think he would be posting his analysis.

[Irish]

Anyone know if rb is okay? I just realized I did not see him for this storm nor the cutter, hope he is okay. I would think he would be posting his analysis.

Great question. Maybe he's just choosing to sit out. I know he made some comment about being off on recent predictions. Maybe he's taking a break.

[jmanley32]

Anyone know if rb is okay? I just realized I did not see him for this storm nor the cutter, hope he is okay. I would think he would be posting his analysis.

Great question. Maybe he's just choosing to sit out. I know he made some comment about being off on recent predictions. Maybe he's taking a break.

If thats the case rb get your butt in here!! Your analysis and forcasting are excellent, so what if they may niot have verified 100%. We need your play by play brotha!

[Frank_Wx]

The NAM tonight closed H5 over the Great Lakes on Friday afternoon and the trough became neutral as H5 remained closed. We need the ULL south of our area and for the trough to be neutral-negative as it swings off the coast. This spawns surface low in an ideal location. We keep seeing these very small improvements at the 500mb level. BIG day of model runs tomorrow. Regardless, there will be an IVT trough and since temps are cold, we’re likely looking at a minimum high ratio 1-3” snowfall type.

[Irish]

The NAM tonight closed H5 over the Great Lakes on Friday afternoon and the trough became neutral as H5 remained closed. We need the ULL south of our area and for the trough to be neutral-negative as it swings off the coast. This spawns  surface low in an ideal location. We keep seeing these very small improvements at the 500mb level. BIG day of model runs tomorrow. Regardless, there will be an IVT trough and since temps are cold, we’re likely looking at a minimum high ratio 1-3” snowfall type.

We can take that and hope for more.   Looking forward to tomorrow!

[SENJsnowman]

Looked to me that at 06z the NAM and the RGEM both show a bit more of a robust system than the other models. But they still were in 1-3” range  generally with an add’l inch or two across central and southern Jersey. Definitely shows the potential to get a bigger final result, but one definition of potential is “hasn’t done it yet.”

Today is a big tracking day…sorry boss!! I’ll pick up the pace again next week! But today, we track!

[phil155]

Looked to me that at 06z the NAM and the RGEM both show a bit more of a robust system than the other models. But they still were in 1-3” range  generally with an add’l two across central and southern Jersey. Definitely shows the potential to get a bigger final result, but one definition of potential is “hasn’t done it yet.”

Today is a big tracking day…sorry boss!! I’ll pick up the pace again next week! But today, I track!

A little earlier today on news12 I heard them mention a 2-4 ot 3-6 type system for Friday. We will see and we track

[Irish]

[Irish]

Saw these elsewhere.

[heehaw453]

I just saw WPC issued this morning 09Z. Considering latest NBM 09Z is < 3" for the same area. I'm not sure where that > 50% for 4" is coming from.

[heehaw453]

Looked to me that at 06z the NAM and the RGEM both show a bit more of a robust system than the other models. But they still were in 1-3” range  generally with an add’l inch or two across central and southern Jersey. Definitely shows the potential to get a bigger final result, but one definition of potential is “hasn’t done it yet.”

Today is a big tracking day…sorry boss!! I’ll pick up the pace again next week! But today, we track!

You have an ULL sliding underneath the area. That in and of itself can cause surprises if it can close off before hitting coasty. Seen is way too many times over the years especially with a bottlenecked Atlantic. I think though 1-3" is an excellent expectations setter for now.

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