Re: Long Range Thread 28.0

[heehaw453]

I just saw WPC issued this morning 09Z. Considering latest NBM 09Z is < 3" for the same area. I'm not sure where that > 50% for 4" is coming from.

[heehaw453]

Looked to me that at 06z the NAM and the RGEM both show a bit more of a robust system than the other models. But they still were in 1-3” range  generally with an add’l inch or two across central and southern Jersey. Definitely shows the potential to get a bigger final result, but one definition of potential is “hasn’t done it yet.”

Today is a big tracking day…sorry boss!! I’ll pick up the pace again next week! But today, we track!

You have an ULL sliding underneath the area. That in and of itself can cause surprises if it can close off before hitting coasty. Seen is way too many times over the years especially with a bottlenecked Atlantic. I think though 1-3" is an excellent expectations setter for now.

[jmanley32]

I imagine people are busy but the lack of posts about fri concerns me. Nam had a good precip field but really only benefit southern jersey with 3 to 6. Hoping we can all cash in at least along coast. Anyone seeing this moving in a positive direction?

[phil155]

I imagine people are busy but the lack of posts about fri concerns me. Nam had a good precip field but really only benefit southern jersey with 3 to 6. Hoping we can all cash in at least along coast. Anyone seeing this moving in a positive direction?

It will all depends upon where the inverted trough sets up, the folks in that area should do well and right now it looks more like southern NJ

[jmanley32]

I imagine people are busy but the lack of posts about fri concerns me. Nam had a good precip field but really only benefit southern jersey with 3 to 6. Hoping we can all cash in at least along coast. Anyone seeing this moving in a positive direction?

It will all depends upon where the inverted trough sets up, the folks in that area should do well and right now it looks more like southern NJ

so a coastal is off the table?

[crippo84]

I imagine people are busy but the lack of posts about fri concerns me. Nam had a good precip field but really only benefit southern jersey with 3 to 6. Hoping we can all cash in at least along coast. Anyone seeing this moving in a positive direction?

It will all depends upon where the inverted trough sets up, the folks in that area should do well and right now it looks more like southern NJ

so a coastal is off the table?

Check the Jan Observations and Discussions thread.

[Frank_Wx]

So…uhh I think we may all need to go into hibernation for a couple of weeks based on latest long range projections

[Grselig]

So…uhh I think we may all need to go into hibernation for a couple of weeks based on latest long range projections

I think it might help if you create specific thread dedicated to the overly sensible weather.

[rb924119]

So…uhh I think we may all need to go into hibernation for a couple of weeks based on latest long range projections

I respectfully disagree, Frank. I think that we are going to be in a very active, pseudo-gradient pattern overall starting next week and going through February, and then I think the last week of February through March features an overall better pattern. During the gradient pattern, I think we will be very close to the R/S line, though biased on the cold side.

I’ll elaborate more in the next day or two, but I’m actually kind of optimistic. Gradient patterns can produce in a big way, as long as you’re on the right/cold side of them.

[Frank_Wx]

These are the mean temp anomalies days 6-10 and 10-14. So the next 2 weeks.





250mb shows another pacific jet extension during this time, and an MJO in phases 5-6 which favors a trough west of us.




I have a feeling outside of N&W area / elevation, the gradient is going to be unfavorable to many. I’m only talking about the next two weeks. Beyond let’s say Feb 1st I haven’t given it much thought, so hopefully you’re onto something. But if we have to wait until the end of February I’m going to be pissed

[amugs]

Dreaded PAC JET extension.  We have not quelled this in 3 years

[heehaw453]

I don't think we have serviceable long wave pattern until towards end of January.  If the EPO opens up a bit with good PNA then that could work especially as the AO becomes more neutral. I like seeing a big trough in the NAO as that probably links up with some EC troughing. That pattern can absolutely work.

I am thinking February is the time when there is "that storm" potential. You looks at historical El Nino's and February 1-15th is usually when it occurs.

[amugs]

As I said before, the MJO seems to have improved tonight. It drops slightly due to the U850 winds, but the combined one isn't bad.
You can also see in the ECMWF averages how the divergence and convergence between soil and altitude is not synchronous, a sign of weakness! pic.twitter.com/IIWKITnLnd

— Christian (@Superchri90) January 19, 2024

Interesting information and take on MJO.
Weaker phases wave are better so it's not a torch like 50's but more upper 30's to 40ish. You can work with this if you get the timing for a storm

[jmanley32]

Any thoughts on the time period showing a coastal on 18z GFS around Jan 29th. Would this be a favorable time for a storm? I know this could easily be a LR blip and it verbatim shows rain for most except far inland but does the period support a possible storm? Looks like not much or nothing at all to track until the end of Jan, am I correct?

[sroc4]

Any thoughts on the time period showing a coastal on 18z GFS around Jan 29th. Would this be a favorable time for a storm? I know this could easily be a LR blip and it verbatim shows rain for most except far inland but does the period support a possible storm? Looks like not much or nothing at all to track until the end of Jan, am I correct?

I think it may be break time from tracking for many. Just quickly looking at the ensembles today there is a robust positive PNA ridge. This might be enough to produce. Give it a few days.

[amugs]

Jet streak undercuts the block.
The west to east pancaked elongated cells also leave little wiggle room for storm systems to come together in time. pic.twitter.com/yh3vKxH3ca

— ContentWeatherGuy (@ContentWxGuy) January 20, 2024

[toople]

I heard the PNA might be positive but is the EPO will be positive or negative in long range?

[heehaw453]

Frank's scroll mentions it, but that 1/28 period synoptically is workable especially for the interior.  The AO/EPO are not right for sig snows on the coastal plain. The interior is not as sensitive to that so much better chance for a few to several inches. Before that on 1/24 could be some minor/moderate icing in the interior.

[sroc4]

So I, and Im sure many others, will likely take this opportunity to step away and recharge the batteries if you will.  It has been nice to have a few wintery storms to track and have some nice true winter weather for at least a little while.  There is no doubt that many of us wish it would last a little longer, and that we all would have had a few more inches of the white gold on the ground by now, and that back in the day it used to snow alot more and be a lot colder for longer.    

Unfortunately we do appear like we are headed into a period that could be considered the "January Thaw", a period of time that can last a week or two give or take that results with the atmosphere rebounding a bit after an arctic intrusion. By about Tuesday or Wednesday of this week we likely go back to an above normal temp regime.  

In general the "thaw" looks to last through at least Feb 5th-7th ish, at least that's the way it appears to me at the moment, before the pattern looks to reload again to one that features more high latitude blocking in the EPO, NAO and AO domains, which will bring the polar and arctic air masses back to the region.  The details of this; however, are still fuzzy so for now it does appears that from a distance there is still plenty of winter left, but we are going to have to take one on the chin for the next couple/few weeks.

Now with all that said there is a small window of opportunity IMHO right out in front of us that could produce some wintery weather for our little weather weenie community somewhere between the time frame of Jan 28th-31st.  Even though the EPO is going positive; the AO and NAO are also going positive during the next couple of weeks at least, the PNA is headed towards a robust positive phase during this window outlined.



I know many of you know this, but for those who are new to the board and to weather, a +PNA places a ridge along the west coast of the US and Canada.  While this ridge will cause Canada to be well above normal, esp the western half of Canada, this ridge also prevents the Continental US(CONUS) from being directly flooded by the warm Pacific air mass.  By taking the jet stream north into the northern latitudes the warm Pac air now has the opportunity to mix and be diluted by the much colder Canadian air mass.  As it dips south again what we have access to in regards to "air mass" is what we would term "modified Pacific air".  Early on in the season, esp when there is no snow pack in Canada, this really isn't cold enough to do much for us in terms of cold enough to snow in most instances.  However, the later we head into the season means that the eastern half of Canada has had the opportunity to build a snow pack, and lower its temps such that is has more potent diluting of warm Pac air power.  

What am I getting at?  Well during time frame between Jan 28th-31st if we have well timed energy coming out of both southern and northern branches, the +PNA, could produce because this late in the season with a Canadian snow pack, if we get a storm to develop into the mid Atlantic and north east, the air mass to our immediate north should be "cold enough" to work with.  Storm potential is usually somewhat limited. Meaning don't expect opportunities to see feet, but a light to moderate event is def doable this time of year with a +PNA.    

Here are the latest GEFS and EPS showing what Im saying.  Sorry its maybe a little more busy that it needed to be, but I think highlights what I said above with a visual.  





So we still have a week to ten days for this.  As we head towards next weekend is when I personally will start looking at operational runs with any seriousness for this time frame.  Just remember this is during the "THAW".  Any chances we get between now and Feb 7th is a cherry IMO.  Temper expectations but know there may be an opportunity out there before we head back to a more favorable pattern overall for the final few weeks of February.  

We track

[sroc4]

Frank's scroll mentions it, but that 1/28 period synoptically is workable especially for the interior.  The AO/EPO are not right for sig snows on the coastal plain. The interior is not as sensitive to that so much better chance for a few to several inches. Before that on 1/24 could be some minor/moderate icing in the interior.

I popped that up there this morning Heehaw. The scroll that is. And obv as you were posting yours I was writing mine up too. As usual you and I both seem to be on the same page here with the big picture. Well see.

[heehaw453]

Confidence is growing a storm is coming on 1/29. Whether it produces snow is probably dependent on the strength/speed of the H to the north and the initial s/w strength. Both are just too far out to have any confidence yet.

Something like 12Z Euro today too strong on the s/w and would be rain as it's too close to coast.

I do like the setup with fast approaching H helping wedge cold air down. Much better than retreating H off the coast.

[amugs]

Confidence is growing a storm is coming on 1/29. Whether it produces snow is probably dependent on the strength/speed of the H to the north and the initial s/w strength. Both are just too far out to have any confidence yet.

Something like 12Z Euro today too strong on the s/w and would be rain as it's too close to coast.

I do like the setup with fast approaching H helping wedge cold air down. Much better than retreating H off the coast.

Absolutely, timing is crucial to this one.

[sroc4]

Confidence is growing a storm is coming on 1/29. Whether it produces snow is probably dependent on the strength/speed of the H to the north and the initial s/w strength. Both are just too far out to have any confidence yet.

Something like 12Z Euro today too strong on the s/w and would be rain as it's too close to coast.

I do like the setup with fast approaching H helping wedge cold air down. Much better than retreating H off the coast.

Yeah Euro seemed to be a Miller B that transferred too late.  Timing, position, and orientation of the PNA ridge will be critical as well.  Signal is there though

[heehaw453]

Confidence is growing a storm is coming on 1/29. Whether it produces snow is probably dependent on the strength/speed of the H to the north and the initial s/w strength. Both are just too far out to have any confidence yet.

Something like 12Z Euro today too strong on the s/w and would be rain as it's too close to coast.

I do like the setup with fast approaching H helping wedge cold air down. Much better than retreating H off the coast.

Yeah Euro seemed to be a Miller B that transferred too late.  Timing, position, and orientation of the PNA ridge will be critical as well.  Signal is there though

100%. I've seen worse set ups than this produce in peak climo. I'm somewhat optimistic for now because I'm a sucker for banana H.

[heehaw453]

This is op model GFS 18Z. That's how it snows in January during a marginal long wave pattern. The PNA can overcome quite a bit as the AO is not hostile as shown. NYC and the coastal plain absolutely can have a moderate event with a neutral AO and positive PNA in late January.

The H is coming right out the Yukon compliments of the PNA/AO. We shall see.

[SENJsnowman]

This is op model GFS 18Z. That's how it snows in January during a marginal long wave pattern. The PNA can overcome quite a bit as the AO is not hostile as shown. NYC and the coastal plain absolutely can have a moderate event with a neutral AO and positive PNA in late January.

The H is coming right out the Yukon compliments of the PNA/AO. We shall see.

Here I was, all ready to step away for a week or two (albeit half-heartedly) for a little set break, when the long range crew basically comes right back on stage, plugs right back in and starts jamming again!  

I guess I’m nothing but a tracker. From mid-November to mid-March tracking Wall and Wing (fka winter) storms in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast is all I know. I might need a 12 step intervention, but yet I’m clearly not ready for that at this time, so I’m just going to track. Who’s with me?

[MattyICE]

Confidence is growing a storm is coming on 1/29. Whether it produces snow is probably dependent on the strength/speed of the H to the north and the initial s/w strength. Both are just too far out to have any confidence yet.

Something like 12Z Euro today too strong on the s/w and would be rain as it's too close to coast.

I do like the setup with fast approaching H helping wedge cold air down. Much better than retreating H off the coast.

Yeah Euro seemed to be a Miller B that transferred too late.  Timing, position, and orientation of the PNA ridge will be critical as well.  Signal is there though

100%. I've seen worse set ups than this produce in peak climo.  I'm somewhat optimistic for now because I'm a sucker for banana H.

Ugh. I go weak for banana highs. <3

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