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Long Range Thread 28.0

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Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 28.0

Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 17, 2024 7:13 am

Irish wrote:Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Screen27


I just saw WPC issued this morning 09Z. Considering latest NBM 09Z is < 3" for the same area. I'm not sure where that > 50% for 4" is coming from.

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 17, 2024 7:17 am

SENJsnowman wrote:Looked to me that at 06z the NAM and the RGEM both show a bit more of a robust system than the other models. But they still were in 1-3” range  generally with an add’l inch or two across central and southern Jersey. Definitely shows the potential to get a bigger final result, but one definition of potential is “hasn’t done it yet.”

Today is a big tracking day…sorry boss!! I’ll pick up the pace again next week! But today, we track! What a Face

You have an ULL sliding underneath the area. That in and of itself can cause surprises if it can close off before hitting coasty. Seen is way too many times over the years especially with a bottlenecked Atlantic. I think though 1-3" is an excellent expectations setter for now.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 17, 2024 10:50 am

I imagine people are busy but the lack of posts about fri concerns me. Nam had a good precip field but really only benefit southern jersey with 3 to 6. Hoping we can all cash in at least along coast. Anyone seeing this moving in a positive direction?
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Post by phil155 Wed Jan 17, 2024 10:59 am

jmanley32 wrote:I imagine people are busy but the lack of posts about fri concerns me. Nam had a good precip field but really only benefit southern jersey with 3 to 6. Hoping we can all cash in at least along coast. Anyone seeing this moving in a positive direction?


It will all depends upon where the inverted trough sets up, the folks in that area should do well and right now it looks more like southern NJ

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 17, 2024 11:10 am

phil155 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I imagine people are busy but the lack of posts about fri concerns me. Nam had a good precip field but really only benefit southern jersey with 3 to 6. Hoping we can all cash in at least along coast. Anyone seeing this moving in a positive direction?


It will all depends upon where the inverted trough sets up, the folks in that area should do well and right now it looks more like southern NJ
so a coastal is off the table?
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Post by crippo84 Wed Jan 17, 2024 11:17 am

jmanley32 wrote:
phil155 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I imagine people are busy but the lack of posts about fri concerns me. Nam had a good precip field but really only benefit southern jersey with 3 to 6. Hoping we can all cash in at least along coast. Anyone seeing this moving in a positive direction?


It will all depends upon where the inverted trough sets up, the folks in that area should do well and right now it looks more like southern NJ
so a coastal is off the table?

Check the Jan Observations and Discussions thread.
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Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 28.0

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 18, 2024 4:49 pm

So…uhh I think we may all need to go into hibernation for a couple of weeks based on latest long range projections 😞

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Post by Grselig Thu Jan 18, 2024 5:03 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:So…uhh I think we may all need to go into hibernation for a couple of weeks based on latest long range projections 😞

I think it might help if you create specific thread dedicated to the overly sensible weather.
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 18, 2024 5:52 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:So…uhh I think we may all need to go into hibernation for a couple of weeks based on latest long range projections 😞

I respectfully disagree, Frank. I think that we are going to be in a very active, pseudo-gradient pattern overall starting next week and going through February, and then I think the last week of February through March features an overall better pattern. During the gradient pattern, I think we will be very close to the R/S line, though biased on the cold side.

I’ll elaborate more in the next day or two, but I’m actually kind of optimistic. Gradient patterns can produce in a big way, as long as you’re on the right/cold side of them.

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Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 28.0

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 18, 2024 6:42 pm

These are the mean temp anomalies days 6-10 and 10-14. So the next 2 weeks.

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Img_6915
Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Img_6916


250mb shows another pacific jet extension during this time, and an MJO in phases 5-6 which favors a trough west of us.

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Img_6917
Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Img_6918

I have a feeling outside of N&W area / elevation, the gradient is going to be unfavorable to many. I’m only talking about the next two weeks. Beyond let’s say Feb 1st I haven’t given it much thought, so hopefully you’re onto something. But if we have to wait until the end of February I’m going to be pissed

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Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 28.0

Post by amugs Thu Jan 18, 2024 8:16 pm

Dreaded PAC JET extension.  We have not quelled this in 3 years

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 19, 2024 12:42 pm

I don't think we have serviceable long wave pattern until towards end of January.  If the EPO opens up a bit with good PNA then that could work especially as the AO becomes more neutral. I like seeing a big trough in the NAO as that probably links up with some EC troughing. That pattern can absolutely work.

I am thinking February is the time when there is "that storm" potential. You looks at historical El Nino's and February 1-15th is usually when it occurs.

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Naotro10

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Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 28.0

Post by amugs Fri Jan 19, 2024 5:06 pm



Interesting information and take on MJO.
Weaker phases wave are better so it's not a torch like 50's but more upper 30's to 40ish. You can work with this if you get the timing for a storm

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 19, 2024 7:04 pm

Any thoughts on the time period showing a coastal on 18z GFS around Jan 29th. Would this be a favorable time for a storm? I know this could easily be a LR blip and it verbatim shows rain for most except far inland but does the period support a possible storm? Looks like not much or nothing at all to track until the end of Jan, am I correct?
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Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 28.0

Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 19, 2024 7:21 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Any thoughts on the time period showing a coastal on 18z GFS around Jan 29th. Would this be a favorable time for a storm? I know this could easily be a LR blip and it verbatim shows rain for most except far inland but does the period support a possible storm? Looks like not much or nothing at all to track until the end of Jan, am I correct?

I think it may be break time from tracking for many. Just quickly looking at the ensembles today there is a robust positive PNA ridge. This might be enough to produce. Give it a few days.

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 20, 2024 5:29 pm


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Post by toople Sun Jan 21, 2024 8:44 am

I heard the PNA might be positive but is the EPO will be positive or negative in long range?

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 21, 2024 9:11 am

Frank's scroll mentions it, but that 1/28 period synoptically is workable especially for the interior.  The AO/EPO are not right for sig snows on the coastal plain. The interior is not as sensitive to that so much better chance for a few to several inches. Before that on 1/24 could be some minor/moderate icing in the interior.

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Eps1-210

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Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 28.0

Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 21, 2024 9:20 am

So I, and Im sure many others, will likely take this opportunity to step away and recharge the batteries if you will.  It has been nice to have a few wintery storms to track and have some nice true winter weather for at least a little while.  There is no doubt that many of us wish it would last a little longer, and that we all would have had a few more inches of the white gold on the ground by now, and that back in the day it used to snow alot more and be a lot colder for longer.  geek  

Unfortunately we do appear like we are headed into a period that could be considered the "January Thaw", a period of time that can last a week or two give or take that results with the atmosphere rebounding a bit after an arctic intrusion. By about Tuesday or Wednesday of this week we likely go back to an above normal temp regime.  

In general the "thaw" looks to last through at least Feb 5th-7th ish, at least that's the way it appears to me at the moment, before the pattern looks to reload again to one that features more high latitude blocking in the EPO, NAO and AO domains, which will bring the polar and arctic air masses back to the region.  The details of this; however, are still fuzzy so for now it does appears that from a distance there is still plenty of winter left, but we are going to have to take one on the chin for the next couple/few weeks.

Now with all that said there is a small window of opportunity IMHO right out in front of us that could produce some wintery weather for our little weather weenie community somewhere between the time frame of Jan 28th-31st.  Even though the EPO is going positive; the AO and NAO are also going positive during the next couple of weeks at least, the PNA is headed towards a robust positive phase during this window outlined.

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Ecmwf177

I know many of you know this, but for those who are new to the board and to weather, a +PNA places a ridge along the west coast of the US and Canada.  While this ridge will cause Canada to be well above normal, esp the western half of Canada, this ridge also prevents the Continental US(CONUS) from being directly flooded by the warm Pacific air mass.  By taking the jet stream north into the northern latitudes the warm Pac air now has the opportunity to mix and be diluted by the much colder Canadian air mass.  As it dips south again what we have access to in regards to "air mass" is what we would term "modified Pacific air".  Early on in the season, esp when there is no snow pack in Canada, this really isn't cold enough to do much for us in terms of cold enough to snow in most instances.  However, the later we head into the season means that the eastern half of Canada has had the opportunity to build a snow pack, and lower its temps such that is has more potent diluting of warm Pac air power.  

What am I getting at?  Well during time frame between Jan 28th-31st if we have well timed energy coming out of both southern and northern branches, the +PNA, could produce because this late in the season with a Canadian snow pack, if we get a storm to develop into the mid Atlantic and north east, the air mass to our immediate north should be "cold enough" to work with.  Storm potential is usually somewhat limited. Meaning don't expect opportunities to see feet, but a light to moderate event is def doable this time of year with a +PNA.    

Here are the latest GEFS and EPS showing what Im saying.  Sorry its maybe a little more busy that it needed to be, but I think highlights what I said above with a visual.  

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Gefs_h10
Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Eps_hr12


So we still have a week to ten days for this.  As we head towards next weekend is when I personally will start looking at operational runs with any seriousness for this time frame.  Just remember this is during the "THAW".  Any chances we get between now and Feb 7th is a cherry IMO.  Temper expectations but know there may be an opportunity out there before we head back to a more favorable pattern overall for the final few weeks of February.  

We track What a Face


Last edited by sroc4 on Sun Jan 21, 2024 9:26 am; edited 1 time in total

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Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 28.0

Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 21, 2024 9:22 am

heehaw453 wrote:Frank's scroll mentions it, but that 1/28 period synoptically is workable especially for the interior.  The AO/EPO are not right for sig snows on the coastal plain. The interior is not as sensitive to that so much better chance for a few to several inches. Before that on 1/24 could be some minor/moderate icing in the interior.

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Eps1-210

I popped that up there this morning Heehaw. The scroll that is. And obv as you were posting yours I was writing mine up too. As usual you and I both seem to be on the same page here with the big picture. Well see.

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Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 28.0

Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 22, 2024 2:28 pm

Confidence is growing a storm is coming on 1/29. Whether it produces snow is probably dependent on the strength/speed of the H to the north and the initial s/w strength. Both are just too far out to have any confidence yet.

Something like 12Z Euro today too strong on the s/w and would be rain as it's too close to coast.

I do like the setup with fast approaching H helping wedge cold air down. Much better than retreating H off the coast.

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Euro1213

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Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 28.0

Post by amugs Mon Jan 22, 2024 2:49 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Confidence is growing a storm is coming on 1/29. Whether it produces snow is probably dependent on the strength/speed of the H to the north and the initial s/w strength. Both are just too far out to have any confidence yet.

Something like 12Z Euro today too strong on the s/w and would be rain as it's too close to coast.

I do like the setup with fast approaching H helping wedge cold air down. Much better than retreating H off the coast.

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Euro1213

Absolutely, timing is crucial to this one.

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Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 28.0

Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 22, 2024 2:58 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Confidence is growing a storm is coming on 1/29. Whether it produces snow is probably dependent on the strength/speed of the H to the north and the initial s/w strength. Both are just too far out to have any confidence yet.

Something like 12Z Euro today too strong on the s/w and would be rain as it's too close to coast.

I do like the setup with fast approaching H helping wedge cold air down. Much better than retreating H off the coast.

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Euro1213

Yeah Euro seemed to be a Miller B that transferred too late.  Timing, position, and orientation of the PNA ridge will be critical as well.  Signal is there though

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Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 28.0

Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 22, 2024 4:17 pm

sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Confidence is growing a storm is coming on 1/29. Whether it produces snow is probably dependent on the strength/speed of the H to the north and the initial s/w strength. Both are just too far out to have any confidence yet.

Something like 12Z Euro today too strong on the s/w and would be rain as it's too close to coast.

I do like the setup with fast approaching H helping wedge cold air down. Much better than retreating H off the coast.

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Euro1213

Yeah Euro seemed to be a Miller B that transferred too late.  Timing, position, and orientation of the PNA ridge will be critical as well.  Signal is there though

100%. I've seen worse set ups than this produce in peak climo. I'm somewhat optimistic for now because I'm a sucker for banana H.

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Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 28.0

Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 22, 2024 7:06 pm

This is op model GFS 18Z. That's how it snows in January during a marginal long wave pattern. The PNA can overcome quite a bit as the AO is not hostile as shown. NYC and the coastal plain absolutely can have a moderate event with a neutral AO and positive PNA in late January.

The H is coming right out the Yukon compliments of the PNA/AO. We shall see.

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Gfs18z10

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Gfs18z11

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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Jan 22, 2024 10:10 pm

heehaw453 wrote:This is op model GFS 18Z. That's how it snows in January during a marginal long wave pattern. The PNA can overcome quite a bit as the AO is not hostile as shown. NYC and the coastal plain absolutely can have a moderate event with a neutral AO and positive PNA in late January.

The H is coming right out the Yukon compliments of the PNA/AO. We shall see.

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Gfs18z10

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Gfs18z11

Here I was, all ready to step away for a week or two (albeit half-heartedly) for a little set break, when the long range crew basically comes right back on stage, plugs right back in and starts jamming again!  cheers

I guess I’m nothing but a tracker. From mid-November to mid-March tracking Wall and Wing (fka winter) storms in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast is all I know. I might need a 12 step intervention, but yet I’m clearly not ready for that at this time, so I’m just going to track. What a Face Who’s with me?

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Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 28.0

Post by MattyICE Mon Jan 22, 2024 11:11 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Confidence is growing a storm is coming on 1/29. Whether it produces snow is probably dependent on the strength/speed of the H to the north and the initial s/w strength. Both are just too far out to have any confidence yet.

Something like 12Z Euro today too strong on the s/w and would be rain as it's too close to coast.

I do like the setup with fast approaching H helping wedge cold air down. Much better than retreating H off the coast.

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 2 Euro1213

Yeah Euro seemed to be a Miller B that transferred too late.  Timing, position, and orientation of the PNA ridge will be critical as well.  Signal is there though

100%. I've seen worse set ups than this produce in peak climo.  I'm somewhat optimistic for now because I'm a sucker for banana H.

Ugh. I go weak for banana highs. <3

MattyICE
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