NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

+40
hyde345
richb521
SENJsnowman
tomsriversnowstorm
jimv45
WeatherBob
MattyICE
DAYBLAZER
dkodgis
crippo84
jurzdevil
nutleyblizzard
phil155
Coachgriff
Carvin
1190ftalt
silentwreck
emokid51783
NJBear
Dunnzoo
2004blackwrx
brownie
weatherwatchermom
snowday111
billg315
DWay
sroc4
Irish
essexcountypete
GreyBeard
frank 638
Goalscore1
mmanisca
heehaw453
amugs
CPcantmeasuresnow
aiannone
jmanley32
docstox12
Frank_Wx
44 posters

Page 2 of 15 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 8 ... 15  Next

Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 12, 2024 5:04 pm

aiannone wrote:Uptons new map
FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Img_6914

I disagree with how far north they get and their 12” maximum across Long Island. Thinking the max is probably more like 10”. But if 00z models take a jump north tonight, I can see this map carrying more weight.

GreyBeard wrote:Nice write up,Frank
Quick question,with ratios of 6:1 or 7:1 mean this is going to be a very heavy wet snow? Being in my 70's, not looking forward to having to shovel that type of snow.(no snowblower).
Would it help to pre-treat drive and walkways, or would that just be a waste of time and material if we will see rates of 2 or 3 inches an hour? I've never done that in the past,but I was a lot younger and stronger and more able to handle it back when...

I wish Ray was around to better read the soundings and let us know what the dendrites look like. Yea I do believe this will be pretty heavy. It won’t exactly be pasty but definitely on the wet side. Thing is, your heaviest snow doesn’t arrive until 5am. From 5am-10am you could be looking at 1”/hour rates or higher. Not sure how much pre treatment will help there. Treating before bed seems unnecessary cause it’s going to rain first. Tough one!

Goalscore1 wrote:WSW for southern nassau for 4-8 inches, and zero mention of a mix or rain by the NWS. Even the GFS shows mainly rain and a few hours of snow here, yet the 12z shows 15 inches… Temps near 40 degrees tomorrow. Something isn't adding up.

Thoughts?

What are you using to validate rain or snow? The GFS is mainly SNOW not rain. It will initially start as rain but changeover to snow quickly. From a ground temperature standpoint you’ll be between 35-38 degrees hence why ratios will be 6:1 or so. You can’t look at 10:1 ratio snowfall maps. Either use Kuchera, or better yet, only look at qpf totals and do your own calculation.

Irish wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:This is such a stupid hobby. A grown man obsessing about how much snow he gets LOL.
All I've done all day is refresh this forum. What a loser!


I told my boss I have to write a post for my weather peeps and might not respond for an hour. He understood the assignment

Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21305
Join date : 2013-01-05

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

sroc4, CPcantmeasuresnow, brownie, essexcountypete, GreyBeard, weatherwatchermom, billg315 and Irish like this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 12, 2024 5:04 pm

aiannone wrote:Uptons new map
FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Img_6914
Where do I sign 8-12 is way more than this map showed 24 hrs ago. Do you think NWS takes ratios into account or is that 8-12 with the lower ratios?

jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20519
Join date : 2013-12-12

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 12, 2024 5:07 pm

12z vs 18z GEFS trend. At 00z I would really like to see the southern and weaker trend stop.

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Img_7010

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21305
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 32
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

jmanley32 likes this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 12, 2024 5:07 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:This is such a stupid hobby. A grown man obsessing about how much snow he gets LOL.
Oh from you this had me want to burst out laughing!!! Great, just great!!
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20519
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 12, 2024 5:08 pm

18z gfs kuchera

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Img_7030

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21305
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 32
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

bloc1357, Irish and silentwreck like this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by DWay Mon Feb 12, 2024 5:08 pm

NWS still has me in Gloucester County, NJ with only a flood advisory?

DWay

Posts : 9
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2022-01-26
Location : Swedesboro, NJ

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by Irish Mon Feb 12, 2024 5:10 pm

Yeah, what happened to rb?
Irish
Irish
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 788
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 45
Location : Old Bridge, NJ

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 12, 2024 5:13 pm

DWay wrote:NWS still has me in Gloucester County, NJ with only a flood advisory?

I don’t think you’ll see much. An inch or two.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21305
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 32
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by essexcountypete Mon Feb 12, 2024 5:26 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:12z vs 18z GEFS trend. At 00z I would really like to see the southern and weaker trend stop.

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Img_7010

GFS now looking more like the last Euro run, no?
essexcountypete
essexcountypete
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 783
Reputation : 12
Join date : 2013-12-09
Location : Bloomfield, NJ

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 12, 2024 5:28 pm

Check out the current meso analysis.  Dual jet already in bloom.  Surface low already deepening

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 300mb_sf
FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Pmsl

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8335
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

essexcountypete likes this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by Irish Mon Feb 12, 2024 5:29 pm

With all the models showing CNJ getting the goods regardless of the shifts, why don't we have a winter storm warning?
Irish
Irish
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 788
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 45
Location : Old Bridge, NJ

phil155 likes this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 12, 2024 5:34 pm

essexcountypete wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:12z vs 18z GEFS trend. At 00z I would really like to see the southern and weaker trend stop.

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Img_7010

GFS now looking more like the last Euro run, no?

Not quite but feels like we’re arriving at consensus by 00z tonight. The EURO has sharp northern cut offs. Also it’s not nearly as widespread with the heavier totals. It’s a weaker system that gets dominated by the northern kicker.

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Img_7031
FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Img_7032


Irish wrote:With all the models showing CNJ getting the goods regardless of the shifts, why don't we have a winter storm warning?  

Mt. Holly seems behind of Upton. Not sure what’s going on

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21305
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 32
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by billg315 Mon Feb 12, 2024 5:56 pm

Irish wrote:With all the models showing CNJ getting the goods regardless of the shifts, why don't we have a winter storm warning?  
Surprised you don't actually. Hunterdon and Somerset have been under a winter storm warning all day. Especially with the southeast trend I would expect your area to get a WSW.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4475
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Irish likes this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by Irish Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:00 pm

billg315 wrote:
Irish wrote:With all the models showing CNJ getting the goods regardless of the shifts, why don't we have a winter storm warning?  
Surprised you don't actually. Hunterdon and Somerset have been under a winter storm warning all day. Especially with the southeast trend I would expect your area to get a WSW.
Agreed, that was my thinking but just hasn't happened. Guess, we'll have to wait and see...
Irish
Irish
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 788
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 45
Location : Old Bridge, NJ

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by snowday111 Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:13 pm

State of NJ employees have a delayed opening for tomorrow. Hoping the school districts follow the same process. Calling a delay gives them a bit more time to see what is actually happening g before calling the entire day. The last storm, they jumped the gun and called it the night before and then the storm died by the time morning came. Now we are out of snow days.

snowday111

Posts : 92
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Monroe Twp. NJ (Middlesex County)

weatherwatchermom likes this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:29 pm

Going out to dinner🍸 let's see how much this changes by the time we get home...lol
Currently Coastal flood warning and winter weather advisory 2-8 inches predicted..lol
Update: Providence storm warning...son who has not had snow day in 2 years was so excited SNOW DAY..NOT.. University going virtual tomorrow 😂🤣😂🤣
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3761
Reputation : 78
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 60
Location : Hazlet Township, NJ

docstox12 and billg315 like this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by billg315 Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:30 pm

Temp dropping nicely. Down to 42* after a high of 49* here. Dewpoint is 35 degrees and I’d imagine it will be around 35 when rain or mix starts later this evening. Should have no trouble dropping to freezing by 6am, especially once the heavy snow and dynamic cooling sets in tomorrow AM.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4475
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by amugs Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:32 pm

snowday111 wrote:State of NJ employees have a delayed opening for tomorrow. Hoping the school districts follow the same process. Calling a delay gives them a bit more time to see what is actually happening g before calling the entire day. The last storm, they jumped the gun and called it the night before and then the storm died by the time morning came. Now we are out of snow days.
 For your area yes, Northern Arras in Northern Passaic n Bergen, Morris Cty they should pull the plug tonight. 5-8" plus b y Kuchera Model ouputs are dangerous with its taruing around 4AM n snowing heavily through about noonish

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by Irish Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:36 pm

snowday111 wrote:State of NJ employees have a delayed opening for tomorrow. Hoping the school districts follow the same process. Calling a delay gives them a bit more time to see what is actually happening g before calling the entire day. The last storm, they jumped the gun and called it the night before and then the storm died by the time morning came. Now we are out of snow days.
That's going from delayed opening to closing.
Irish
Irish
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 788
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 45
Location : Old Bridge, NJ

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:40 pm

essexcountypete wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:This is such a stupid hobby. A grown man obsessing about how much snow he gets LOL.

You got that right my good Freind, here I am at age 73 on this site 20 times looking at nutso maps .Been doing it since 1960 at age 10, there is no hope for you CP.We need a 12 step

"My name is docstox and I am a snowaholic...'
"HI DOCSTOX"!

Lookit we still have a shot at 5 or 6 here, stay the course,LOL.

We got it bad, and there's nothing you can do about it.

My dad grew up near Lake Michigan and loved snow. He's no longer with us, but my mom, who grew up in Irvington, got the snow bug from him, just like I did. My mom is now 91, and she still calls me when she sees the first flakes flying - "It's SNOWING!!" I hope I'm still giddy about impending snow storms when I'm 91.

Rest assured, Pete, you will be just as bad at 91 as you are now,LOL.Spoken as a 63 year addict with no hope at age 73.
God Bless your Mom and I hope she makes 100 like my Mom did.
35 degrees at 6:39, cloudy and calm.NWS still says 6 to 9 here even with the Sand E shift.Nowcast time.

Hey Mom, saw your son has virtual tomorrow.Loved back in the day when they HAD to close the schools,LOL.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 8514
Reputation : 222
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 73
Location : Monroe NY

essexcountypete likes this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by brownie Mon Feb 12, 2024 7:01 pm

Schools in Parsippany are closed tomorrow.  Town offices are also closed!

brownie

Posts : 392
Reputation : 17
Join date : 2013-11-10
Location : Parsippany, NJ

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 12, 2024 7:11 pm

This upper level low needs to close off 150 miles closer to the coast, then it's a big deal for the area. As is it's too late for large scale event. That could change for sure, but Euro isn't showing it. NWS Mt Holly still has 10-15" for NW NJ/Poconos. No way no how with this as is.

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Euro155

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Euro234

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3906
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 12, 2024 7:21 pm

A couple of updates:

1) For those interested, I plan to have a final snow map released before 10pm this evening. The reason for wanting to issue a final map has to do with the CCB. Evidence is growing there will likely be one, and I want to better represent that in my final map. Not quite sure if this will raise my maxima. But have a feeling it will

2) There will be additional recon data invested into the 00z models tonight. Hopefully this gives models some clarity in areas they’re struggling in right now

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21305
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 32
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

snowday111, kalleg and essexcountypete like this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 12, 2024 7:27 pm

Good and bad news with the 18z euro

Good = precip shield pushed north a bit

Bad = system trended weaker with even less qpf than 12z

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Img_7011

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21305
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 32
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 12, 2024 7:28 pm


_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21305
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 32
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by Goalscore1 Mon Feb 12, 2024 7:29 pm

Interesting the NWS has higher totals for southern suffolk vs southern nassau. Will come down to the changeover and ratios, but still a very wide range. 2-10 inches for southern nassau

Goalscore1

Posts : 11
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2024-01-16

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 12, 2024 7:32 pm


_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21305
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 32
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

jmanley32 likes this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 2 of 15 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 8 ... 15  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum