FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

aiannone wrote:Uptons new map

I disagree with how far north they get and their 12” maximum across Long Island. Thinking the max is probably more like 10”. But if 00z models take a jump north tonight, I can see this map carrying more weight.

GreyBeard wrote:Nice write up,Frank
Quick question,with ratios of 6:1 or 7:1 mean this is going to be a very heavy wet snow? Being in my 70's, not looking forward to having to shovel that type of snow.(no snowblower).
Would it help to pre-treat drive and walkways, or would that just be a waste of time and material if we will see rates of 2 or 3 inches an hour? I've never done that in the past,but I was a lot younger and stronger and more able to handle it back when...

I wish Ray was around to better read the soundings and let us know what the dendrites look like. Yea I do believe this will be pretty heavy. It won’t exactly be pasty but definitely on the wet side. Thing is, your heaviest snow doesn’t arrive until 5am. From 5am-10am you could be looking at 1”/hour rates or higher. Not sure how much pre treatment will help there. Treating before bed seems unnecessary cause it’s going to rain first. Tough one!

Goalscore1 wrote:WSW for southern nassau for 4-8 inches, and zero mention of a mix or rain by the NWS. Even the GFS shows mainly rain and a few hours of snow here, yet the 12z shows 15 inches… Temps near 40 degrees tomorrow. Something isn't adding up.

Thoughts?

What are you using to validate rain or snow? The GFS is mainly SNOW not rain. It will initially start as rain but changeover to snow quickly. From a ground temperature standpoint you’ll be between 35-38 degrees hence why ratios will be 6:1 or so. You can’t look at 10:1 ratio snowfall maps. Either use Kuchera, or better yet, only look at qpf totals and do your own calculation.

Irish wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:This is such a stupid hobby. A grown man obsessing about how much snow he gets LOL.

All I've done all day is refresh this forum. What a loser!

I told my boss I have to write a post for my weather peeps and might not respond for an hour. He understood the assignment

aiannone wrote:Uptons new map

Where do I sign 8-12 is way more than this map showed 24 hrs ago. Do you think NWS takes ratios into account or is that 8-12 with the lower ratios?

12z vs 18z GEFS trend. At 00z I would really like to see the southern and weaker trend stop.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:This is such a stupid hobby. A grown man obsessing about how much snow he gets LOL.

Oh from you this had me want to burst out laughing!!! Great, just great!!

18z gfs kuchera

NWS still has me in Gloucester County, NJ with only a flood advisory?

Yeah, what happened to rb?

DWay wrote:NWS still has me in Gloucester County, NJ with only a flood advisory?

I don’t think you’ll see much. An inch or two.

Frank_Wx wrote:12z vs 18z GEFS trend. At 00z I would really like to see the southern and weaker trend stop.

GFS now looking more like the last Euro run, no?

Check out the current meso analysis.  Dual jet already in bloom.  Surface low already deepening

With all the models showing CNJ getting the goods regardless of the shifts, why don't we have a winter storm warning?

essexcountypete wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:12z vs 18z GEFS trend. At 00z I would really like to see the southern and weaker trend stop.

GFS now looking more like the last Euro run, no?

Not quite but feels like we’re arriving at consensus by 00z tonight. The EURO has sharp northern cut offs. Also it’s not nearly as widespread with the heavier totals. It’s a weaker system that gets dominated by the northern kicker.

Irish wrote:With all the models showing CNJ getting the goods regardless of the shifts, why don't we have a winter storm warning?  

Mt. Holly seems behind of Upton. Not sure what’s going on

Irish wrote:With all the models showing CNJ getting the goods regardless of the shifts, why don't we have a winter storm warning?  

Surprised you don't actually. Hunterdon and Somerset have been under a winter storm warning all day. Especially with the southeast trend I would expect your area to get a WSW.

billg315 wrote:

Irish wrote:With all the models showing CNJ getting the goods regardless of the shifts, why don't we have a winter storm warning?  

Surprised you don't actually. Hunterdon and Somerset have been under a winter storm warning all day. Especially with the southeast trend I would expect your area to get a WSW.

Agreed, that was my thinking but just hasn't happened. Guess, we'll have to wait and see...

State of NJ employees have a delayed opening for tomorrow. Hoping the school districts follow the same process. Calling a delay gives them a bit more time to see what is actually happening g before calling the entire day. The last storm, they jumped the gun and called it the night before and then the storm died by the time morning came. Now we are out of snow days.

Going out to dinner let's see how much this changes by the time we get home...lol
Currently Coastal flood warning and winter weather advisory 2-8 inches predicted..lol
Update: Providence storm warning...son who has not had snow day in 2 years was so excited SNOW DAY..NOT.. University going virtual tomorrow

Temp dropping nicely. Down to 42* after a high of 49* here. Dewpoint is 35 degrees and I’d imagine it will be around 35 when rain or mix starts later this evening. Should have no trouble dropping to freezing by 6am, especially once the heavy snow and dynamic cooling sets in tomorrow AM.

snowday111 wrote:State of NJ employees have a delayed opening for tomorrow. Hoping the school districts follow the same process. Calling a delay gives them a bit more time to see what is actually happening g before calling the entire day. The last storm, they jumped the gun and called it the night before and then the storm died by the time morning came. Now we are out of snow days.

 For your area yes, Northern Arras in Northern Passaic n Bergen, Morris Cty they should pull the plug tonight. 5-8" plus b y Kuchera Model ouputs are dangerous with its taruing around 4AM n snowing heavily through about noonish

snowday111 wrote:State of NJ employees have a delayed opening for tomorrow. Hoping the school districts follow the same process. Calling a delay gives them a bit more time to see what is actually happening g before calling the entire day. The last storm, they jumped the gun and called it the night before and then the storm died by the time morning came. Now we are out of snow days.

That's going from delayed opening to closing.

essexcountypete wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:This is such a stupid hobby. A grown man obsessing about how much snow he gets LOL.

You got that right my good Freind, here I am at age 73 on this site 20 times looking at nutso maps .Been doing it since 1960 at age 10, there is no hope for you CP.We need a 12 step

"My name is docstox and I am a snowaholic...'
"HI DOCSTOX"!

Lookit we still have a shot at 5 or 6 here, stay the course,LOL.

We got it bad, and there's nothing you can do about it.

My dad grew up near Lake Michigan and loved snow. He's no longer with us, but my mom, who grew up in Irvington, got the snow bug from him, just like I did. My mom is now 91, and she still calls me when she sees the first flakes flying - "It's SNOWING!!" I hope I'm still giddy about impending snow storms when I'm 91.

Rest assured, Pete, you will be just as bad at 91 as you are now,LOL.Spoken as a 63 year addict with no hope at age 73.
God Bless your Mom and I hope she makes 100 like my Mom did.
35 degrees at 6:39, cloudy and calm.NWS still says 6 to 9 here even with the Sand E shift.Nowcast time.

Hey Mom, saw your son has virtual tomorrow.Loved back in the day when they HAD to close the schools,LOL.

Schools in Parsippany are closed tomorrow.  Town offices are also closed!

This upper level low needs to close off 150 miles closer to the coast, then it's a big deal for the area. As is it's too late for large scale event. That could change for sure, but Euro isn't showing it. NWS Mt Holly still has 10-15" for NW NJ/Poconos. No way no how with this as is.

A couple of updates:

1) For those interested, I plan to have a final snow map released before 10pm this evening. The reason for wanting to issue a final map has to do with the CCB. Evidence is growing there will likely be one, and I want to better represent that in my final map. Not quite sure if this will raise my maxima. But have a feeling it will

2) There will be additional recon data invested into the 00z models tonight. Hopefully this gives models some clarity in areas they’re struggling in right now

Good and bad news with the 18z euro

Good = precip shield pushed north a bit

Bad = system trended weaker with even less qpf than 12z

Interesting the NWS has higher totals for southern suffolk vs southern nassau. Will come down to the changeover and ratios, but still a very wide range. 2-10 inches for southern nassau