FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Interesting the NWS has higher totals for southern suffolk vs southern nassau. Will come down to the changeover and ratios, but still a very wide range. 2-10 inches for southern nassau

Just watched a Bernie video and he is throwing out the Euro and going with the GFS.He says he hopes he doesn't get burned by that,LOL.Gutsy move.

The GFS was not great either (better than Euro), I am hoping the Super SR models are right, why bother sending recon out? So it can have sampling for 06z? It will be on the doorstep by then. I actually may stay up tonight for all but Euro, I am going with Bernie, gutsy or not.

jmanley32 wrote:The GFS was not great either (better than Euro), I am hoping the Super SR models are right, why bother sending recon out? So it can have sampling for 06z? It will be on the doorstep by then. I actually may stay up tonight for all but Euro, I am going with Bernie, gutsy or not.

The data will be ingested into tonight’s 00z runs

What’s the rain/snow line looking like?

Goalscore1 wrote:What’s the rain/snow line looking like?

Not a concern unless there’s a dramatic shift back to the north. Doubtful

This is in the NWS briefing, mentions 12-15 highest end even for NE NJ and southern WC, this came out at 5:25pm, also concern of some power outages due to snow load.

Heavy Snowfall-Winter Storm Warning for entire area late Tonight into Tuesday Interior NE NJ, interior Lower Hudson Valley, interior SW CT: Heavy, wet snow late tonight into early Tue aft. Total Snowfall: 6 to10” likely, with reasonable worst case of 12 to 15” late tonight into midday Tue. Snowfall Rates: 1-2+“/hrpossible btwn5am and noon (2 hrslater for eastern areas) Temps: Upper 20s during snowfall, lower 30s Tue aft, lower/mid 20s Tue Night. Winds: NE-N winds 15 mph with gusts 25 mph Tue Am/PM  Impacts: ¼ to ½ mile vsby, snow covered roads and difficult travel late tonight through Tue aft. Scattered downed tree branches w/ isolated power outages from snow load. Portions of NE NJ, Southern Westchester, much of S CT: Rain transition to heavy, wet snow early Tue AM into early Tue aft. Total Snowfall: 8 to 11” likely, with reasonable worst case of 12 to 15” late tonight into intomid aft Tue. Snowfall Rates: 1-2+“/hrpossible btwn5am and noon (2 hrslater for eastern areas) Temps: Mid 30s tonight, lower 30s during snowfall and Tue aft, upper 20s Tue Night. Winds: NE-N winds 15-20 mph with gusts 25 to 30 mph Tue Am/PM  Impacts: ¼ to ½ mile vsby, snow covered roads and difficult travel late tonight through Tue aft. Scattered downed tree branches w/ isolated power outages from snow load. NYC metro and Long Island: Rain transition to Heavy, wet snow around daybreak Tue into early Tue aft. Total Snowfall: 6 to 10” likely, with reasonable worst case of 10-12”, early Tue AM into mid aft Tue.  Snowfall Rates: 1-2+“/hrpossible btwn5am and noon (2 hrslater for eastern areas)  Temps: Upper 30s tonight, around 32F during snowfall, mid 30s Tue aft/eve, lower 30s Tue night.  Winds: NE-N winds 20-25 mph with gusts 35 to 40 mph Tue Am/PM, highest east.  Impacts: ¼ to ½ mile vsby, snow covered roads and difficult travel Tue AM into Tue aft. Scattered downed tree branches w/ isolated power outages from snow load.

Action Recommended
Make preparations per the instructions
Issued By
Philadelphia - PA, US, National Weather Service
Affected Area
In New Jersey, Middlesex, Western Monmouth and Mercer. In Pennsylvania, Lower Bucks
Description
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY...

WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

WHERE...In New Jersey, Middlesex, Western Monmouth and Mercer. In Pennsylvania, Lower Bucks.

WHEN...From midnight tonight to 3 PM EST Tuesday.

IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Briefly heavy snow will be possible around the time of the morning commute, with snowfall rates of up to 1 inch per hour possible. There is uncertainty regarding snow amounts and how efficiently the snow will accumulate on roads, given mild temperatures with precipitation starting as rain overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Current Satellite and Radar of storm developing in Tennessee Valley:

Surface obs and 500mb:

The rain has begun here in Old Bridge.

I in hope mode today after seeing the model trends. Im hoping to get at least 4 inches but not looking good for southern Dutchess.

2004blackwrx wrote:I in hope mode today after seeing the model trends. Im hoping to get at least 4 inches but not looking good for southern Dutchess.

Rid yourself of hope. In this case it will just cause pain. Free yourself from expecting anything and a coating will be a pleasant surprise. That's my current mindset.

0Z NAM pic.twitter.com/reee794WHK

— Al Mugno (@MugnoaAl) February 13, 2024

0Z NAM good storm not quite robust as previous runs BUT CAME BACK N

Def needed to lower totals IMO. Not even sure If I like this map but I just didn't have the time to analyze some of the details like I would have wanted. Now Cast time for me. Good luck everyone.

NW trim continues. 0z RAP had 8 dropsondes, HRRR had 2, and the NAM (running) got 5.

0z RAP

Can we call this one of the biggest model fails within 24 hours of a storm in the last ten years at least. The event hasn't happened yet but it's on its way to being that. I at least hope all in NYC and south cash in good.

oops

If the storm follows Northeast path of current radar we will all be happy.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Can we call this one of the biggest model fails within 24 hours of a storm in the last ten years at least. The event hadn't happened yet but it's on its way to being that. I at least hope all in NYC and south cash in good.

We have to wait and see. If it was wrong 12 hour ago it may also be wrong now. I feel like models are getting worse not better over last couple of years. We should have a semi accurate forcast 3 days out. This uear we got lots of rain and almost every storm we got way more rain then forecasted.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Can we call this one of the biggest model fails within 24 hours of a storm in the last ten years at least. The event hadn't happened yet but it's on its way to being that. I at least hope all in NYC and south cash in good.

I would say yes but even worse going back more than 24 hours. If you go back to last Thursday the models had everything from a statewide NJ rainstorm with heavy snow in the mid-HV and NE, to Heavy Snow across the Delmarva to South Jersey with no snow north of NYC; and every solution in between. Worse yet, each model at various points in time presented all of those diverse outcomes, so none were consistent.
The models served two purposes in this case:
1. To confirm there was a storm
2. To confirm that any solution was possible.
I guess there is some value in #1, but very little in #2.
In fact, I guess to pat us on the back, I’d say our guys on here gave more consistent and valuable input/analysis than all the models combined.

Down to 37.9* and falling. Won't take much to get us down to freezing. Anyone staying up late?

The 00Z NAM similar to 18Z Euro late h5 close off towards BM. They'll be snow just more moderate impact than significant winter storm accumulations unless that closes off as it hits the coast.

In terms of temperatures the 925's are oozing down and 0C is above route 80 it'll take several hours to slip to TTN area but it will be steadily getting colder for folks.

00z runs off to a rough start. 00z NAM versus 18z NAM total precip. Notice how totals to the north are coming down, and amounts around NYC are also decreasing.

Hi Res 00Z GFS. Huggable for many even if taking 20% off the top.

00z RGEM