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FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 13, 2024 8:47 am

Light to moderate snow here. Radar shows one last heavy band on my doorstep to the west, and behind that the backend of the precip shield approaching. I expect I'll have a brief burst of heavy snow here in the next hour, then will taper off and end around Noon. will see what my final total is then.

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 13, 2024 8:49 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Officially over a foot here.

12.3 inches as the snow winds down. Still moderate here with one thin heavy band left. May make it to 13 but at this point who cares LOL.

Wow. That's awesome. Can never trust models when you have a potential for mid-levels and ULL close off and negatively tilted h5. Especially in NW areas where thermal profiles are more favorable.

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Post by docstox12 Tue Feb 13, 2024 8:52 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Officially over a foot here.

12.3 inches as the snow winds down. Still moderate here with one thin heavy band left. May make it to 13 but at this point who cares LOL.

Intensity picked up from the last band coming in.Will wait for the official trained spotter report but looks certain to be a foot or a little over.May pick up a few dribs and drabs if it goes to light snow on and off this afternoon.Way beyond expectations from yesterday when the southern shift(shaft) for here made me think less than 6 inches.If I ever meet Bernie I will buy him a shot and a beer for throwing out the Euro in his disco yesterday.
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Post by dkodgis Tue Feb 13, 2024 8:53 am

HeeHaw-this one’s for you (my signature)
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Post by hyde345 Tue Feb 13, 2024 8:57 am

Picked up only 2 inches here in Dutchess county a little north of Poughkeepsie. Never got into the heavier bands which were just south of me. Southern Dutchess reported 9 inches. So close yet so far. 17.5 for the season.
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Post by essexcountypete Tue Feb 13, 2024 8:58 am

dkodgis wrote:I sticked. 11.5. Never trust one’s eyes. Always use the Stick of Truth.

I'm picturing you triumphantly holding up a gleaming snow-covered yardstick like Excalibur.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Feb 13, 2024 8:59 am

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 13 Screen28Not snowing right now but radar shows diff..are we done?
Going out to measure..and take some pictures and enjoy the beauty
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Post by WeatherBob Tue Feb 13, 2024 9:02 am

Mom, you are in a dry slot, subsidence, it will pick up for the finale!
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Post by jimv45 Tue Feb 13, 2024 9:05 am

Snow coming to end got 11. Nice  surprise.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 13, 2024 9:06 am

Well I can't believe it but even though there is one more heavy band to come through assuming the subsidence doesn't continue the NW folks won despite all odds, CP I don't wanna hear you complain again this year lol. Did not even make the low end of the WSW here yet, maybe with the next band. If I can make 6 I guess I can deal with that, but man thought that push south for 6+ was real. Seems like it was all over the place in all of our reports from 0.75 to 15. Thats a spread!
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Post by 1190ftalt Tue Feb 13, 2024 9:07 am

Snow has stopped, finish with 15 inches, temperature is 32 degrees!
    Good Luck !FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 13 3e350d10
FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 13 50f57f10
FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 13 A45be110
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Post by dkodgis Tue Feb 13, 2024 9:09 am

Heehaw: I actually understood what you wrote. So models don’t pick up on these parts or they do but not the interaction?
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Post by essexcountypete Tue Feb 13, 2024 9:09 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 13 Screen28Not snowing right now but radar shows diff..are we done?
Going out to measure..and take some pictures and enjoy the beauty

I think the snow dates in your sig might be off. Unless you're prognosticating Smile
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Post by Fededle22 Tue Feb 13, 2024 9:14 am

Just over 8 inches here and still snowing hard.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 13, 2024 9:14 am

Some observations based on all of your reports and pictures

1) sun angle in early/mid Feb doesn’t play a factor much at all

2) snow ratios were at 10:1. It was much colder than I think anyone realized it would be

3) subsidence blows

4) upper level jet (kudos to Scott here) played a big role in expanding the precip field and promoting frontogenesis


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Post by WeatherBob Tue Feb 13, 2024 9:30 am

Pretty much the end here in Caldwell. 9 in total
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 13, 2024 9:30 am

dkodgis wrote:Heehaw: I actually understood what you wrote. So models don’t pick up on these parts or they do but not the interaction?  

Exactly. Any time phasing occurs with two jet streaks is when you see your most volatile solutions imaginable. Best anecdote I can recall is Boxing Day blizzard 2010. GFS has flurries 48 hours before the event. The next model run 42 hours out it showed 18" over NYC.

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Post by dkodgis Tue Feb 13, 2024 9:35 am

I get it phasing means the parts exchange energy and the weather models stay on the outside looking in until they are not by accounting for the effect.
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Post by brownie Tue Feb 13, 2024 9:37 am

Looks like it’s finished here.

8”

32°F

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 13, 2024 9:44 am

I'll call it done here too. Flurries and 30.2°

12.7 inches for the final tally.

The Euro should be embarrassed, a lot of other models too.
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Post by dkodgis Tue Feb 13, 2024 9:47 am

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 13 Img_5410
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Post by amugs Tue Feb 13, 2024 9:52 am

Still snowing here, back end through here on about 10 minutes. 

8.5"

1.5" greater than all of last winter.

So far 15" for the season.

34" my normal avg.



I hope you guys east of here get good snows and totals as well.

Onto the weekends storm!! Buckle up.

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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 13, 2024 9:58 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
essexcountypete wrote:I think the idea that Frank starting a storm thread is a jinx has just been blown up. In fact, Frank should start every storm thread for the rest of the winter.

Not to be greedy but I second that and think Frank should start a storm thread at least once a week, even when there's no threat of a storm.

Ummmm scratch I believe sroc started the thread.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 13, 2024 10:00 am

Snow officially ended at 11:25 a.m. here. Sky is brightening. Looks like the sun may pop out this afternoon.
Final snow measurement here: 7.5"
So ended up at the top of the 4-8"/5-9" range which is a big win.
For the season this brings me to about 16" - which after last year's horrific winter is quite acceptable on Feb 12. One more moderate storm, or even a couple smaller events could get me to "normal" snowfall for the season. But even if not, I'm happy with today.
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Post by Coachgriff Tue Feb 13, 2024 10:01 am

That’s a wrap….talk about a serious miss…WSW for 5-9 inches….didn’t make it to 1! Glad others made out with this one…see you in 2025! East Windsor signing out!
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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 13, 2024 10:03 am

Coachgriff wrote:That’s a wrap….talk about a serious miss…WSW for 5-9 inches….didn’t make it to 1!  Glad others made out with this one…see you in 2025!  East Windsor signing out!

That sucks Coach.  Just a tad too far north for this one.  Keep an eye on the 17th- 20th though. Pattern is right

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 13, 2024 10:04 am

Ending in the next 15 min or so per radar, quick hitter, will go out and measure once it stops, not going to be over 6 inches (maybe, we will see) which I guess was close enough to the low end of the WSW totals.  Was hoping to hit at least 8, oh well. Still very pretty out. Roads just wet now DOT did a great job. Lets preliminarily call it 5.5 so that would make still a single digit year with 8.5 now.
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