NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

+33
SkiSeadooJoe
CPcantmeasuresnow
richb521
dkodgis
jaydoy
Coachgriff
MikeA
crippo84
brownie
weatherwatchermom
WeatherBob
heehaw453
aiannone
phil155
Goalscore1
1190ftalt
justdrew
NJBear
Irish
GreyBeard
essexcountypete
SoulSingMG
docstox12
billg315
frank 638
SENJsnowman
jmanley32
MattyICE
amugs
sroc4
nutleyblizzard
mmanisca
Frank_Wx
37 posters

Page 1 of 6 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next

Go down

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Empty February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 16, 2024 6:53 am

Round 2! Areas that got skunked last storm have a chance to make up for it with this one. There’s general consensus that low pressure will develop over Virginia which is where our baroclinic zone currently lives. Along this zone is where you’ll find the best dynamics that will lead to moderate snowfall accumulations.

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Img_7034
February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Img_7035

The top image is your 250mb jet steak that is modeled to pass through the Mid Atlantic. You have mid level energy transcending south out of the polar region thanks for a very robust PNA ridge. The bottom image is your 700mb frontogenesis which is your “jackpot” zone for this event. Although the surface low is weak, at 1000mb give or take, there will be banding along the baroclinic area capable of 1-1.5”/hour.

DC to SNJ are looking at a 4-8” snowfall. Philly to CNJ 3-6”. NNJ, including NYC and LI, look more like 1-3” but it’s a tough forecast. If we see a trend north (sound familiar?) it’s possible some of the better dynamics spread north as well which could put more areas under 3-6”. Some models such as the NAM actually show subsidence, or dry air, over much of NNJ/NYC leading up to the storm. It could be difficult to erode that away. So that’s also a factor for keeping snow amounts on the lower end there.

Good luck SNJ!!!

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21332
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 32
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

docstox12, SkiSeadooJoe, kalleg, mmanisca, Shorebird, richb521, larryrock72 and like this post

Back to top Go down

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by mmanisca Fri Feb 16, 2024 11:37 am

So far 12z looking up for us here on Long Island. Hoping for a solid 2-4 inches..
mmanisca
mmanisca
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 300
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2013-01-23
Age : 66
Location : Deer Park, Long Island

sroc4 and SENJsnowman like this post

Back to top Go down

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Feb 16, 2024 11:38 am

Good trends today with the 12Z model suite. NAM, RGEM, and GFS have continued to tick north. Advisory level amounts encompass most of the area. 3-5” looks like a good bet.
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1964
Reputation : 42
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 58
Location : Nutley, new jersey

SENJsnowman and MattyICE like this post

Back to top Go down

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 16, 2024 11:50 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:Good trends today with the 12Z model suite. NAM, RGEM, and GFS have continued to tick north. Advisory level amounts encompass most of the area. 3-5” looks like a good bet.

Look at 12z HRRR for some real excitement

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"   WINTER 2024/2025 TOTALS 0.50
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8485
Reputation : 302
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

CPcantmeasuresnow, mmanisca and MattyICE like this post

Back to top Go down

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by amugs Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:12 pm

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Starting to see the new 12z models coming in showing a bump north with slightly higher liquid equivalents and more organized lift. Will be assessing the rest of the 12z guidance and any expansion of the Advisory will occur with the afternoon package.

cheers cheers cheers

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15192
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

CPcantmeasuresnow and SENJsnowman like this post

Back to top Go down

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by amugs Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:15 pm

12z GFS ticks N - another one and 3-4" very doable for NNJ and NYC Metro

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations 1708203600-tfkjwDBjh24

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations 1708203600-8a87Tv9bzFg

Gives reason to pause when it is this moisture laden for a clipper.

Heehaw 200/250Jet enhancing with STJ a bit? Grading heavily before break so no time here brother n sisters

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15192
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

CPcantmeasuresnow likes this post

Back to top Go down

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by MattyICE Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:20 pm

Expect advisories from Upton this afternoon!

MattyICE
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 254
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2017-11-10
Age : 39
Location : Clifton, NJ (Eastern Passaic County)

mmanisca likes this post

Back to top Go down

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:46 pm

So 0.3-0.4 with this would be 5-6 inches? It is 39 degrees, how is it possible there could be such high ratios?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20656
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:47 pm

MattyICE wrote:Expect advisories from Upton this afternoon!
Probably, we will see, IMBY 3 incjhes 10:1, so if we get 15:1 or higher thats almost warning level snow (I believe here it is 6 or more (I was happy with 1-3 so if we see anything more thats great. This will be a fluffy snow correct? Not a back breaker like last?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20656
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:50 pm

amugs wrote:12z GFS ticks N - another one and 3-4" very doable for NNJ and NYC Metro

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations 1708203600-tfkjwDBjh24

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations 1708203600-8a87Tv9bzFg

Gives reason to pause when it is this moisture laden for a clipper.

Heehaw 200/250Jet enhancing with STJ a bit? Grading heavily before break so no time here brother n sisters
possible warning level snows with ratios in central NJ. High end WWA north of there into LI NYC and most of westchester per this run. GFS def has been consistent in moving north past several runs. Just like last one this seems to be the theme this year.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20656
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:01 pm

jmanley32 wrote:So 0.3-0.4 with this would be 5-6 inches? It is 39 degrees, how is it possible there could be such high ratios?

Is it snowing now???

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.giphy.com%2Fmedia%2FPtQrzJUJ7Q9d6%2Fgiphy

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"   WINTER 2024/2025 TOTALS 0.50
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8485
Reputation : 302
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

MattyICE likes this post

Back to top Go down

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by MattyICE Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:18 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:So 0.3-0.4 with this would be 5-6 inches? It is 39 degrees, how is it possible there could be such high ratios?

Is it snowing now???

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.giphy.com%2Fmedia%2FPtQrzJUJ7Q9d6%2Fgiphy

LOL. This was my question. I was like “..wait a minute…huh??”

MattyICE
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 254
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2017-11-10
Age : 39
Location : Clifton, NJ (Eastern Passaic County)

Back to top Go down

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by MattyICE Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:20 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
MattyICE wrote:Expect advisories from Upton this afternoon!
Probably, we will see, IMBY 3 incjhes 10:1, so if we get 15:1 or higher thats almost warning level snow (I believe here it is 6 or more (I was happy with 1-3 so if we see anything more thats great. This will be a fluffy snow correct? Not a back breaker like last?

Lighter for sure. I doubt WSW anywhere for upton unless it keeps trending right up to game time.

MattyICE
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 254
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2017-11-10
Age : 39
Location : Clifton, NJ (Eastern Passaic County)

Back to top Go down

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:36 pm

The trend to come slightly north has also removed some of the drier air I was seeing in modeling this morning. If true that should allow for some better accumulation further north as well. This likely went from a 1-3 to 2-4” event for NYC Metro. Still feel good about 3-5” in SNJ.

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Namconus_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_22

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21332
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 32
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

kalleg and MattyICE like this post

Back to top Go down

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by SENJsnowman Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:41 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The trend to come slightly north has also removed some of the drier air I was seeing in modeling this morning. If true that should allow for some better accumulation further north as well. This likely went from a 1-3 to 2-4” event for NYC Metro. Still feel good about 3-5” in SNJ.

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Namconus_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_22

Man, I love being inside the purple lines. It’s like being hugged by Barney.

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Img_2717

SENJsnowman
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1207
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 51
Location : Long Branch, NJ

kalleg and JT33 like this post

Back to top Go down

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by frank 638 Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:42 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:The trend to come slightly north has also removed some of the drier air I was seeing in modeling this morning. If true that should allow for some better accumulation further north as well. This likely went from a 1-3 to 2-4” event for NYC Metro. Still feel good about 3-5” in SNJ.

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Namconus_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_22

Man, I love being inside the purple lines. It’s like being hugged by Barney.

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Img_2717
I love you you love me🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

frank 638
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2888
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 41
Location : bronx ny

kalleg and SENJsnowman like this post

Back to top Go down

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:47 pm

MattyICE wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:So 0.3-0.4 with this would be 5-6 inches? It is 39 degrees, how is it possible there could be such high ratios?

Is it snowing now???

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.giphy.com%2Fmedia%2FPtQrzJUJ7Q9d6%2Fgiphy

LOL. This was my question.  I was like “..wait a minute…huh??”  
Well excuseeee me, I just meant how is it going to stick with such warm temps even if they crash tonight. No it's not snowing now duh... (joking) but the ground is very mushy and I can't see how it won't be wet again if we get anything. It won't be blitxzing like last storm so IMO it may be hard to stick up here anyways, douwn central NJ I could see it. Hoping though.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20656
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:47 pm

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Sn10_a20
SREF coming in more amped.
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1964
Reputation : 42
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 58
Location : Nutley, new jersey

jmanley32 likes this post

Back to top Go down

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:50 pm

frank 638 wrote:
SENJsnowman wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:The trend to come slightly north has also removed some of the drier air I was seeing in modeling this morning. If true that should allow for some better accumulation further north as well. This likely went from a 1-3 to 2-4” event for NYC Metro. Still feel good about 3-5” in SNJ.

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Namconus_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_22

Man, I love being inside the purple lines. It’s like being hugged by Barney.

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Img_2717
I love you you love me🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Bahaha thats hilarious the frontogenesis def came much further north that earlier runs. What is the approximate start and end time? Will I be good to travel to CT late this evening and return tomorrow midday, I hate driving in any snow mainly because of others. I have no problem driving in snow myself.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20656
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY

SENJsnowman likes this post

Back to top Go down

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:51 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Sn10_a20
SREF coming in more amped.
So NYC if 15-20:1 thats 5.25-7? I can't see that happening, or am I just being pessimistic? If those ratios occur, and like 10+ inches plus in central NJ?


Last edited by jmanley32 on Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:57 pm; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20656
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:57 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Sn10_a20
SREF coming in more amped.
So is that like 4-6 NYC if 15-20:1? If those ratios occur, and like 10 inches plus in central NJ?

IMO Sout of the line you will see 10-15:1 ratios at best; prob 12:1 max. As you head N your ratios increase

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Sn10_a10

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"   WINTER 2024/2025 TOTALS 0.50
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8485
Reputation : 302
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:58 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Sn10_a20
SREF coming in more amped.
So is that like 4-6 NYC if 15-20:1? If those ratios occur, and like 10 inches plus in central NJ?

IMO Sout of the line you will see 10-15:1 ratios at best; prob 12:1 max.  As you head N your ratios increase

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Sn10_a10
So as I just posted, we were posting at the same time that puts NYC at like 5.25 at 15:1 to 7 at 20:1, thats nuts if true.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20656
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Feb 16, 2024 2:06 pm

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations 63400710
The RAP is coming more enhanced as well! Is this a trend or a blip? Makes for an interesting evening to say the least.
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1964
Reputation : 42
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 58
Location : Nutley, new jersey

SENJsnowman likes this post

Back to top Go down

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 16, 2024 2:12 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:February 17th 2024 Snow Observations 63400710
The RAP is coming more enhanced as well! Is this a trend or a blip? Makes for an interesting evening to say the least.
Is that finished or only partway done? Takes south jersey almost out ya crazy, is it a blip, but look at last one the highest totals were N &W which wasn't expected.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20656
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by billg315 Fri Feb 16, 2024 2:18 pm

I'll be in the far reaches of South Jersey (way further south than even SENJsnowman!!) later tonight and tomorrow so I'll let you know how it looks down there.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4586
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

jmanley32 likes this post

Back to top Go down

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 6 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum