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February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 16, 2024 6:53 am

Round 2! Areas that got skunked last storm have a chance to make up for it with this one. There’s general consensus that low pressure will develop over Virginia which is where our baroclinic zone currently lives. Along this zone is where you’ll find the best dynamics that will lead to moderate snowfall accumulations.

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Img_7034
February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Img_7035

The top image is your 250mb jet steak that is modeled to pass through the Mid Atlantic. You have mid level energy transcending south out of the polar region thanks for a very robust PNA ridge. The bottom image is your 700mb frontogenesis which is your “jackpot” zone for this event. Although the surface low is weak, at 1000mb give or take, there will be banding along the baroclinic area capable of 1-1.5”/hour.

DC to SNJ are looking at a 4-8” snowfall. Philly to CNJ 3-6”. NNJ, including NYC and LI, look more like 1-3” but it’s a tough forecast. If we see a trend north (sound familiar?) it’s possible some of the better dynamics spread north as well which could put more areas under 3-6”. Some models such as the NAM actually show subsidence, or dry air, over much of NNJ/NYC leading up to the storm. It could be difficult to erode that away. So that’s also a factor for keeping snow amounts on the lower end there.

Good luck SNJ!!!

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Post by mmanisca Fri Feb 16, 2024 11:37 am

So far 12z looking up for us here on Long Island. Hoping for a solid 2-4 inches..
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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Feb 16, 2024 11:38 am

Good trends today with the 12Z model suite. NAM, RGEM, and GFS have continued to tick north. Advisory level amounts encompass most of the area. 3-5” looks like a good bet.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 16, 2024 11:50 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:Good trends today with the 12Z model suite. NAM, RGEM, and GFS have continued to tick north. Advisory level amounts encompass most of the area. 3-5” looks like a good bet.

Look at 12z HRRR for some real excitement

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:12 pm

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Starting to see the new 12z models coming in showing a bump north with slightly higher liquid equivalents and more organized lift. Will be assessing the rest of the 12z guidance and any expansion of the Advisory will occur with the afternoon package.

cheers cheers cheers

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:15 pm

12z GFS ticks N - another one and 3-4" very doable for NNJ and NYC Metro

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations 1708203600-tfkjwDBjh24

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations 1708203600-8a87Tv9bzFg

Gives reason to pause when it is this moisture laden for a clipper.

Heehaw 200/250Jet enhancing with STJ a bit? Grading heavily before break so no time here brother n sisters

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Post by MattyICE Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:20 pm

Expect advisories from Upton this afternoon!

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:46 pm

So 0.3-0.4 with this would be 5-6 inches? It is 39 degrees, how is it possible there could be such high ratios?
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:47 pm

MattyICE wrote:Expect advisories from Upton this afternoon!
Probably, we will see, IMBY 3 incjhes 10:1, so if we get 15:1 or higher thats almost warning level snow (I believe here it is 6 or more (I was happy with 1-3 so if we see anything more thats great. This will be a fluffy snow correct? Not a back breaker like last?
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:50 pm

amugs wrote:12z GFS ticks N - another one and 3-4" very doable for NNJ and NYC Metro

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations 1708203600-tfkjwDBjh24

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations 1708203600-8a87Tv9bzFg

Gives reason to pause when it is this moisture laden for a clipper.

Heehaw 200/250Jet enhancing with STJ a bit? Grading heavily before break so no time here brother n sisters
possible warning level snows with ratios in central NJ. High end WWA north of there into LI NYC and most of westchester per this run. GFS def has been consistent in moving north past several runs. Just like last one this seems to be the theme this year.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:01 pm

jmanley32 wrote:So 0.3-0.4 with this would be 5-6 inches? It is 39 degrees, how is it possible there could be such high ratios?

Is it snowing now???

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.giphy.com%2Fmedia%2FPtQrzJUJ7Q9d6%2Fgiphy

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Post by MattyICE Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:18 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:So 0.3-0.4 with this would be 5-6 inches? It is 39 degrees, how is it possible there could be such high ratios?

Is it snowing now???

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.giphy.com%2Fmedia%2FPtQrzJUJ7Q9d6%2Fgiphy

LOL. This was my question. I was like “..wait a minute…huh??”

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Post by MattyICE Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:20 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
MattyICE wrote:Expect advisories from Upton this afternoon!
Probably, we will see, IMBY 3 incjhes 10:1, so if we get 15:1 or higher thats almost warning level snow (I believe here it is 6 or more (I was happy with 1-3 so if we see anything more thats great. This will be a fluffy snow correct? Not a back breaker like last?

Lighter for sure. I doubt WSW anywhere for upton unless it keeps trending right up to game time.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:36 pm

The trend to come slightly north has also removed some of the drier air I was seeing in modeling this morning. If true that should allow for some better accumulation further north as well. This likely went from a 1-3 to 2-4” event for NYC Metro. Still feel good about 3-5” in SNJ.

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Namconus_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_22

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Post by SENJsnowman Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:41 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The trend to come slightly north has also removed some of the drier air I was seeing in modeling this morning. If true that should allow for some better accumulation further north as well. This likely went from a 1-3 to 2-4” event for NYC Metro. Still feel good about 3-5” in SNJ.

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Namconus_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_22

Man, I love being inside the purple lines. It’s like being hugged by Barney.

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Img_2717

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Post by frank 638 Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:42 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:The trend to come slightly north has also removed some of the drier air I was seeing in modeling this morning. If true that should allow for some better accumulation further north as well. This likely went from a 1-3 to 2-4” event for NYC Metro. Still feel good about 3-5” in SNJ.

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Namconus_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_22

Man, I love being inside the purple lines. It’s like being hugged by Barney.

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Img_2717
I love you you love me🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:47 pm

MattyICE wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:So 0.3-0.4 with this would be 5-6 inches? It is 39 degrees, how is it possible there could be such high ratios?

Is it snowing now???

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.giphy.com%2Fmedia%2FPtQrzJUJ7Q9d6%2Fgiphy

LOL. This was my question.  I was like “..wait a minute…huh??”  
Well excuseeee me, I just meant how is it going to stick with such warm temps even if they crash tonight. No it's not snowing now duh... (joking) but the ground is very mushy and I can't see how it won't be wet again if we get anything. It won't be blitxzing like last storm so IMO it may be hard to stick up here anyways, douwn central NJ I could see it. Hoping though.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:47 pm

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Sn10_a20
SREF coming in more amped.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:50 pm

frank 638 wrote:
SENJsnowman wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:The trend to come slightly north has also removed some of the drier air I was seeing in modeling this morning. If true that should allow for some better accumulation further north as well. This likely went from a 1-3 to 2-4” event for NYC Metro. Still feel good about 3-5” in SNJ.

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Namconus_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_22

Man, I love being inside the purple lines. It’s like being hugged by Barney.

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Img_2717
I love you you love me🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Bahaha thats hilarious the frontogenesis def came much further north that earlier runs. What is the approximate start and end time? Will I be good to travel to CT late this evening and return tomorrow midday, I hate driving in any snow mainly because of others. I have no problem driving in snow myself.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:51 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Sn10_a20
SREF coming in more amped.
So NYC if 15-20:1 thats 5.25-7? I can't see that happening, or am I just being pessimistic? If those ratios occur, and like 10+ inches plus in central NJ?


Last edited by jmanley32 on Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:57 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:57 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Sn10_a20
SREF coming in more amped.
So is that like 4-6 NYC if 15-20:1? If those ratios occur, and like 10 inches plus in central NJ?

IMO Sout of the line you will see 10-15:1 ratios at best; prob 12:1 max. As you head N your ratios increase

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Sn10_a10

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:58 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Sn10_a20
SREF coming in more amped.
So is that like 4-6 NYC if 15-20:1? If those ratios occur, and like 10 inches plus in central NJ?

IMO Sout of the line you will see 10-15:1 ratios at best; prob 12:1 max.  As you head N your ratios increase

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations Sn10_a10
So as I just posted, we were posting at the same time that puts NYC at like 5.25 at 15:1 to 7 at 20:1, thats nuts if true.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Feb 16, 2024 2:06 pm

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations 63400710
The RAP is coming more enhanced as well! Is this a trend or a blip? Makes for an interesting evening to say the least.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 16, 2024 2:12 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:February 17th 2024 Snow Observations 63400710
The RAP is coming more enhanced as well! Is this a trend or a blip? Makes for an interesting evening to say the least.
Is that finished or only partway done? Takes south jersey almost out ya crazy, is it a blip, but look at last one the highest totals were N &W which wasn't expected.
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Post by billg315 Fri Feb 16, 2024 2:18 pm

I'll be in the far reaches of South Jersey (way further south than even SENJsnowman!!) later tonight and tomorrow so I'll let you know how it looks down there.
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