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February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

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February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 16, 2024 2:12 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 63400710
The RAP is coming more enhanced as well! Is this a trend or a blip? Makes for an interesting evening to say the least.
Is that finished or only partway done? Takes south jersey almost out ya crazy, is it a blip, but look at last one the highest totals were N &W which wasn't expected.

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Post by billg315 Fri Feb 16, 2024 2:18 pm

I'll be in the far reaches of South Jersey (way further south than even SENJsnowman!!) later tonight and tomorrow so I'll let you know how it looks down there.

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Post by MattyICE Fri Feb 16, 2024 2:40 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 Sn10_a20
SREF coming in more amped.
So is that like 4-6 NYC if 15-20:1? If those ratios occur, and like 10 inches plus in central NJ?

IMO Sout of the line you will see 10-15:1 ratios at best; prob 12:1 max.  As you head N your ratios increase

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 Sn10_a10
So as I just posted, we were posting at the same time that puts NYC at like 5.25 at 15:1 to 7 at 20:1, thats nuts if true.

I personally don’t think 15-20:1 widespread ratios will be common even north of Scott’s line. They’re also dynamic meaning you could experience 15:1 under a band then go back to 10:1 twenty minutes later.

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February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by amugs Fri Feb 16, 2024 2:55 pm

have to love last minute trends we are seeing and N trend too........surprise surprise and 'Atmospheric Memory" as Haw adn SROC have stated. Better than some others memory at tis time!!

EURO - more N and a wider spread accumulating/ moderate snows now:
4AM
February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 1708160400-SyvNCOznhq4
6AM
February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 1708171200-f39yNszQFGA

10AM SROC and Alex get thumped
February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 1708182000-VYzLMNjpNjI

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 1708203600-3MofjBdNinA

That's 2-3" for NNJ, NYC Metro maybe 4" Lollipops
SNJ 3-4"

Kuchera = ratios (12-15:1 on this I'd say)
February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 1708203600-LJEI46EQocA

10:1
February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 1708203600-qj5pA0h1nY4



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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 16, 2024 3:09 pm

36 degrees, partly sunny, windy.
Looks like the North trend continues, seems to be the case with these recent snowstorms.I may have a chance at 3 here.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Feb 16, 2024 3:13 pm

Nam coming in north!
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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Feb 16, 2024 3:14 pm

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 18nam_10
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February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by SoulSingMG Fri Feb 16, 2024 3:16 pm

Winter Weather Advisories just expanded to include all of NYC, Long Island, and NE NJ:

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 Img_3018
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 16, 2024 4:20 pm

2-4 with the WWA and I won't be here waaa lol looks like we may see a inch or 2 in CT if the N trend continues.
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February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by essexcountypete Fri Feb 16, 2024 5:15 pm

The expanded NWS advisories and snow maps...
February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 Mtholl10
February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 Upton_10
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February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by amugs Fri Feb 16, 2024 5:52 pm

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 Ef434410
February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 Screen13
February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 65cfd610

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 16, 2024 5:52 pm

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 Stormt10
February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 Snku_a11

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February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by GreyBeard Fri Feb 16, 2024 5:59 pm

Here's Uptons take. I thought South Jersey was supposed to be in a favorable locale? Looks like you gotta burn the midnight oil if you wanna see this event as they are saying between 2AM to 8 AM is when rates will be best.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/02162024pm_snow.pdf

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February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 16, 2024 6:13 pm

What an ugly looking snow hole on the latest HRRR for SNJ...

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 Sn10-acc-imp-us-ne-thumb-png-fe8e82321be903ec5adbb7ac160080e4

It also exists on the latest RAP

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 Snku-acc-imp-us-ne-1-thumb-png-808538f442b5b6d0c048885894ea01ca

So the short res models are picking up on this extreme banding of snow for CNJ/NNJ that causes subsidence south of there. Interesting......

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 16, 2024 6:22 pm

In my head I figured ratios would be a bit better than what is being modeled. They will be good for NNJ and N&W, obviously, but immediate coast and SNJ are looking at your standard 10:1.

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 Snow-ratios

Here is the progression of the snow based on 18z GFS

1am

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 1am

4am

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 4am

7am

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 7am

Total snow

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 Gfs-accum



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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 16, 2024 6:24 pm

Amazingly 18z GFS also shows this glaring hole of precip in south-central NJ. Rare agreement on the models with where the strongest banding sets up

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 Image-thumb-png-1f5302143901d4c10e511887c7552394

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 16, 2024 9:08 pm

Enjoy all, I am away in eastern CT where looks like we aren't go get anything maybe 1/2-1 max. Looking forward to tracking whats on the scroll.
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 16, 2024 9:53 pm

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 Image_42


Overperformer in the making

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February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by Irish Fri Feb 16, 2024 10:03 pm

amugs wrote:February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 Image_42


Overperformer in the making
How can you tell?
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 16, 2024 10:17 pm

All the yellow which are heavy echoes of tstorms, that are attributed to latent heat from the jet steam. That usually lifts Northward.

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 16, 2024 10:30 pm

Radar filling in nicely and a tad more north

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 Inxr1k19

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Post by NJBear Fri Feb 16, 2024 10:51 pm

Coming in a little early.  However, no visual snow of yet.  

February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 Firesh17

Now snowing. scratch
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Post by justdrew Fri Feb 16, 2024 11:57 pm

Fine flakes arriving in Middletown NJ.

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Post by SENJsnowman Sat Feb 17, 2024 12:16 am

justdrew wrote:Fine flakes arriving in Middletown NJ.

And from the looks of it, the flakes are staying in.Middletown for a bit.  Oh well, win some, lose  some. February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 Img_2710

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Post by 1190ftalt Sat Feb 17, 2024 12:27 am

Started snowing at 11:53 in the pm, 28 degrees, ground covered, coming down nice fine snow, still had 6 inches from previous storm,
     Good Luck !February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 C9932110
February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 6126b510
February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 5241df10
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February 17th 2024 Snow Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Post by Goalscore1 Sat Feb 17, 2024 1:04 am

Large moderate to heavy band with 35-40 DBZ snow working into the staten island, new brunswick, and nassau area.

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Post by NJBear Sat Feb 17, 2024 1:59 am

Goalscore1 wrote:Large moderate to heavy band with 35-40 DBZ snow working into the staten island, new brunswick, and nassau area.

I'm in that at 22/78. An easy inch an hour rate.
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