Re: Potential January 18th Storm

by **sroc4** Thu Jan 17, 2013 11:11 am

By a smidge

by **docstox12** Thu Jan 17, 2013 12:27 pm

sroc4 wrote:So after a few days of a north and west trend for tonight into tomorrows storm potential yesterdays 18z and 0z runs have shifted it back to the south and east leaving the NYC metro area for the most part high and dry. The 0z Euro as well as a few other short range models do still bring a little moisture into NYC, south NJ, LI and southern CT, but it does not amount to much as far as accumulations. I would not be surprised if LI esp areas out in Suffolk County and esp the south fork could wake up to see some flurries and possibly a light dusting, but nothing that warrants a snow map. Frustrating for this snow lover to say the least. Have a great day.

I think you are right on the nose with this one.At this stage of the game, it's pretty set that this one is going south and east of us.What do they call these things, "southern sliders"?

Back to the drawing board,LOL!

by **Dunnzoo** Thu Jan 17, 2013 3:19 pm

What short range models do you guys like and seem more reliable? the sref has jogged north, giving me a little precip, when other models were bone dry for the northern suburbs. I notice some of you use the gfs for precip in the short range as well, but everything seems to be all over the place in the last 24 hours....

Here is this morning's sref precip...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PCNTOTNE_9z/srefloop.html#picture

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 17, 2013 5:05 pm

I like the NAM

by **aiannone** Thu Jan 17, 2013 5:29 pm

So u think more snow possibly bc that's what the 18z NAM showed

Steve D sees northern track and upped totals
http://www.nynjpaweather.com/2013/01/17/concerning-trends-need-to-be-addressed-for-tonight/

Yea he has some balls...and according to him he is being conservative lmao

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 17, 2013 8:06 pm

ttp://i16.servimg.com/u/f16/18/03/09/58/image24.jpg

Steve D

Lol

by **aiannone** Thu Jan 17, 2013 8:09 pm

That link doesnt work, but im feeling he might be somewhat right for LI. My humidity is up to 80%, i have a dew of 31 and a temp of 35 and light snow flurries. Atmosphere is beginning to moisten and NWS said that the atmosphere should moisten up enough around 10pm for snow to break out on LI and .5-1in is possible.

by **Dunnzoo** Thu Jan 17, 2013 8:15 pm

lost the "h" in front. lol!

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Jan 17, 2013 10:15 pm

Alex, dry air is already eating up the precip and the center of circulation is moving in a due east direction, actually looks like it's retreating EEEEEEEEEEESE if that's even possible, the virga (99% of precip in our region) is already retreating off the coast.

by **docstox12** Fri Jan 18, 2013 6:21 am

Mets2695 wrote:So u think more snow possibly bc that's what the 18z NAM showed

Steve D sees northern track and upped totals
http://www.nynjpaweather.com/2013/01/17/concerning-trends-need-to-be-addressed-for-tonight/

Yea he has some balls...and according to him he is being conservative lmao

Nice write up but he's way out of line up in NNJ.Just an occaisional flurry so far here as of this morning.Don't know what's happening on LI or the South Jersey area.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 18, 2013 10:02 am

This storm is over. SNJ did not even see an inch of accumulation. Lots of bust maps everywhere in the weather world calling for 1-3/2-4 inch snows in SNJ. My map may have been the closest. I put C-2 inches. Models were picking up on virga, not actual precip.

Onto the next storm...

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