January 25, 2014 Clipper Storm

jmanley32 wrote:Also CP I just noticed your totals, not that much less than mine, about 5-6 inches apart.

Jman. Yeah I really got screwed on the last storm only getting two inches when everyone else was hitting the jackpot. Hey it happens sometimes. Usually being where I am I do pretty well it being colder and all but like you say we all miss out at some point. Rarely does everyone on our board which covers about a 75 mile radius of NYC make out. There's always someone crying the blues, this time it was me.

CP last year when my parents in the New Haven area got 35 inches of snow and I got 12 I was so pissed, lol 35 inches would shut us down for a while. New Haven was immobilized, my parents were trapped in their house in a coastal country town Guiilford if you know it. The first plow coming through couldn't push through the snow, the second one got stuck too. They were stuck in their trucks for half a day my dad said before a heavy duty loader came to dig them out. My dad showed me pics I was so jealous as I have never and may never see that much snow out of one storm.

Frank wahts your name for a storm pushing 3-4 feet? RipRoidZilla? LOL

jmanley32 wrote:Frank wahts your name for a storm pushing 3-4 feet? RipRoidZilla? LOL

MegaRoidzilla,LOL!

How about FrankZilla

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS still continues the theme of atleast an inch or two for the area Saturday to freshen up the snow pack.

Frank: I have to build a snowpack before I can freshen it up. I'll take anything I can get Saturday.

Your storm will come. I smell it. 

sroc4 wrote:How about FrankZilla

We are going with this.

Duh why didn't I think of that Frankzilla, sounds good. LOL

I expect an image of Godzilla with your head perfectly photoshopped on top for the storm mode banner. In fact if anyone knows how to do that and would like to post it........

Yeah, but Frank will never be able to go to Japan after that,LOL!

jmanley32 wrote:Frank wahts your name for a storm pushing 3-4 feet? RipRoidZilla? LOL

Just call it A-Rod.

Don't feel bad Cp I only got 1 1/4 inches from the last storm. My saving grace was on Saturday the 18th I got 4.75 inches from the little LP that went through. So at least I have about 5.5 inches on the ground now. I'm hoping that you guys are right about getting some snow in our areas in the future. I'll be keeping my fingers crossed.

Oh Yea!! Frankzilla A old- fashion Nor'easter that comes up from N.C drops 2' then stalls off Montauk

Any maps on saturday worth showing yet Frank? I hear it could be a little more than a few inches POSSIBLY. And what are your thoughts on Monday? Seems again main media outlets calling for a track through new england nowhere near the coast, but did mention that was a possibility. Man theres so much to watch right now its def not boring.

Ahh I see your scroll 1-4, sounds good nothing to big but a nice add on to possibly put me near a foot (if I get closer to 3-4) since the snow has settled a bit since Tuesdays storm from 10.5.

Upton's take on Saturday's Clipper

Upton just posted 48 hr snowfall.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php

Is this about right or on the low side?

jmanley32 wrote:Upton just posted 48 hr snowfall.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php

Is this about right or on the low side?

Jman,

IMO looks about right - you never know with these squall lines. It maybe more west of us here due to teh fact it wil llose moisture as it roll salong - nothingto really feed these moisture wise.
Then again nowcasting will tell like last Saturday when I got 1.5" with graupel!

Mugs

Yeah your probably right mugs, what is your take on Sun/Mon? Accu says could be comparable to this past Tuesday do you think thats possible? Another 8-12 inches?

jmanley32 wrote:Yeah your probably right mugs, what is your take on Sun/Mon?  Accu says could be comparable to this past Tuesday do you think thats possible?  Another 8-12 inches?

Is there potential? Of course in this set up but we will know more by Sat - hate to say it. The upper atmospheric patterns do not jive IMO with what is being shown on the models at this point. Do I wish we can have another 6-12" event from this - hells yea but like a great economic answer I learned from Prof Scher in college - it depends. No gut feelin' yet. Sorry  

No sense in creating a map for this one. As the scroll says, general 1-4 inches, (more to the north, less to the south).

NAM shows C-1.5" for Jersey shore, NYC and LI. 1.5-3" in the westernmost half of NJ, most in NWNJ, mini jackpot near Allentown probably around 4" out there.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=01&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=18&fhour=60¶meter=PCPIN&level=24&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

GFS

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=01&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=12&fhour=66¶meter=PCPIN&level=24&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

C-1.5" for all of NJ, NYC and LI. On both of the maps you can see as typical the mountains kill off a good bit of the moisture. OH, WV, PA and NY state (not HV or NYC IMO) will do the best with what I expect to be a general 2-4", less in some areas, more in others. Not a big event for this area. I'm thinking we'll probably see a solid inch.

Was hoping to get at least 2" out of this o well guess not

Mt. Holly much drier than Upton.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php

IMO a blend of the two is right, Upton looks a little too wet meanwhile Mt. Holly is way too dry.

I like a general 1-3 inches. Most 3 inch amounts in areas out on the NJ/Pa boarder were some banding will occur. Not much QPF for the rest of us, but just enough to whiten up the snowpack and cause some slick areas for travel.

If I had to make a forecast I'd say .8"-1.75" of snow for the NYC area, likely 1.25-2.5" further west, especially near the PA border, sounds specific but when we're dealing with minute QPF amounts the tiniest difference and squalls can make a huge impact on 0 or 2 inches.

18z GFS slightly wetter.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=01&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=18&fhour=60¶meter=PCPIN&level=24&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

lee basically just said he sees no big threats thru super bowl week