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January 26-27 Possible System

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Post by Quietace Thu Jan 23, 2014 5:31 pm

Moving out of the Long range thread. Models continue to show the system north of the area. We believe they are incorrectly showing this solution.
Continue discussion.
Doc, can you please post your earlier explanation here, its a great overview of the pattern.
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Post by Yschiff Thu Jan 23, 2014 5:58 pm

Watch this video http://t.co/FvczGQWOfX

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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 23, 2014 5:59 pm

Here is my take on the Monday storm and why I agree with Frank as to a track further to the south and the potential for this to be a moderate event and possibly even develop into what we just experienced Tuesday and Wed.  I also want to add to my theory as to why the models are having such a tough time with the current pattern. 

 As was the case with this weeks storm the Ridge in the west is modeled to be very steep and extend N into Alaska.  Here are the GFS, CMC, and Euro Models at 12z on Sunday.  Notice how steep the ridge is and how North to south the orientation is of the western side of the trough.  I have to believe as has been the case in the past that the s/w is not digging into the trough as much as is currently shown on the models, and that as we approach Friday nights 00z's and beyond the models will start trending more with that idea as it did in similar fashion with this weeks event. Ultimately why I think the models will not catch on to this again until only 36-60 hrs out is a lack of sampling of these energies.   
January 26-27 Possible System <a href=January 26-27 Possible System Gfs12z11" />
January 26-27 Possible System <a href=January 26-27 Possible System Cmc12z11" />
January 26-27 Possible System <a href=January 26-27 Possible System Euro1212" />

There are 3 pieces of energy that will interact and come together to create the short wave(s/w) that will dive into the northern plains and lead to this potential.  Here is the Canadian Model at 12z today with the pieces of energy.  Both the North American view and the Arctic view at 500mb to give a different perspective on where there energy is coming from.  Notice how piece 1 is in Northern Canada, piece two is currently over the arctic, and piece 3 is just now coming in off the Pacific Ocean.  All three geographic locations aren't exactly the most data rich locations. 
January 26-27 Possible System <a href=January 26-27 Possible System Cmc12z12" />
January 26-27 Possible System <a href=January 26-27 Possible System Cmc12z13" />

With the ridge being as steep as it is being modeled there is now way for the models not to correct in the coming days.  I believe models will correct showing the short wave digging into the trough more.  So instead of the surface LP approaching the east coast with a track oriented west to east over the great lakes or Ohio valley we will see the surface LP track that originates further south and approaches the coast from SW to NE instead; leading toa moderate event.  We shall see if my theory is correct over the next few days.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 23, 2014 6:50 pm

Sroc I hope your right, cuz the accuweather explanation seemed just as convincing against a storm for us and he even said it would only be a few inches inland, but yes we are talking about accuwx, and their track record is not always so great.
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Post by Quietace Thu Jan 23, 2014 6:55 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Sroc I hope your right, cuz the accuweather explanation seemed just as convincing against a storm for us and he even said it would only be a few inches inland, but yes we are talking about accuwx, and their track record is not always so great.
Bernie feels that with the PV moving NE, the vort will stay almost attached to the PV and swing around the base of the PV and not allow the SW to detach and dig southward. Though with the ridging being so N/S oriented, you would thing the velocity and energy of the shortwave would allow it to dig further south away from the PV and then use the PV to pivot and affect the area.
Plus we have terrible sampling as Doc stated.
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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 23, 2014 6:59 pm

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/snowstorm-threat-next-week-for-east-coast/2430839568001

Listen to the first 1:30 of the video and Bernie explains why he thinks the storm will miss us to the north.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 23, 2014 7:01 pm

Quietace wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Sroc I hope your right, cuz the accuweather explanation seemed just as convincing against a storm for us and he even said it would only be a few inches inland, but yes we are talking about accuwx, and their track record is not always so great.
Bernie feels that with the PV moving NE, the vort will stay almost attached to the PV and swing around the base of the PV and not allow the SW to detach and dig southward. Though with the ridging being so N/S oriented, you would thing the velocity and energy of the shortwave would allow it to dig further south away from the PV and then use the PV to pivot and affect the area.
Plus we have terrible sampling as Doc stated.

Exactly my thoughts. Thats what I was trying to show on the 12z CMC on Sunday map with the two question marks, but I decided to present my argument slight different as I started to write it. We shall see. Remember I am not a metorologist. I am just telling it how I see it.

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Post by Quietace Thu Jan 23, 2014 7:05 pm

If the energy is any more robust or similar the models are showing, which the SW have been extremely under modeled all year, it will be able to detach and dig. Im not sure i buy Bernies thoughts just yet. But we will see how it plays out.
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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 23, 2014 7:07 pm

Also, Bernie does a good job explaining the coastal threat next week for Wednesday.
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Post by amugs Thu Jan 23, 2014 7:20 pm

Doc ,

Excellent analysis once again and this is my belief all along that models cannot catch onto this pattern and have not all frigin winter long -- Decembers pattern to much going on in the atmosphere and now it can't pick up on this as well. I see us having a moderate event as Frank said and you are showing and on the heels of this a possible major event Wed.

Love it Doc.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 23, 2014 7:55 pm

Bernie seems a bit excited about 29-30th possibility. Are we playing with a possible roid here?
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Jan 23, 2014 7:58 pm

Im confused here how many storms are we talking about saturday,sunday into monday then ome friday?
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Post by Quietace Thu Jan 23, 2014 8:11 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Im confused here how many storms are we talking about saturday,sunday into monday then ome friday?
Saturday is the light frontal/clipper event. Sunday-Monday storm(what this thread is about) and then another potential system in the Wednesday timeframe (29thish).
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 23, 2014 8:20 pm

Sheesh well you all were right about it being active, it is a bit confusing maybe we should keep each topic seperate. Make a thread for Sun/Monday and a thread for Wednesday.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 23, 2014 8:21 pm

I've seen you guys start your own, can I go ahead and make those or is that FRanks call?
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Post by Quietace Thu Jan 23, 2014 8:22 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Sheesh well you all were right about it being active, it is a bit confusing maybe we should keep each topic seperate.  Make a thread for Sun/Monday and a thread for Wednesday.
This is the thread for the Sunday-Monday system. Wednesday-Thursday storm is on the long range thread for now.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Jan 23, 2014 8:36 pm

Thanks Ace thats what i thought just wanted conformation
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 23, 2014 8:52 pm

Ok ace sounds good.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 23, 2014 10:35 pm

Upon further review, it looks like I jumped the gun a bit for Monday. The PV is actually acting as a pivot this time around, swinging the s/w energy from one side to the other. If the PV were to press south instead - the s/w energy would have to as well and there would be a storm track from the Ohio Valley to NYC. This is still possible I guess, but running out of time and I can see why current model guidance is showing what it is. To be clear, the Monday system is not cutting west. It's just rotating around the PV, which continues to be in a weak state. Still bares watching but center of attention turns to Thursday.

So as of now, I would say Monday is cloudy with some light snow showers possible - similar to Saturday of this week.

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Post by Yschiff Thu Jan 23, 2014 10:42 pm

Frank what do u think about the chance of snow tue night?

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Jan 23, 2014 11:10 pm

0Z GFS agrees with you Frank. Not looking good for Sunday night, Monday.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 24, 2014 5:58 am

I will give this idea until this evenings 00z's before its gone.  As Frank stated above I will conceded for the most part GFS, CMC, Euro, and NAM are in fairly good agreement at 500mb with the idea that the PV drags this energy with it around its center as it pulls to the N and east instead of it breaking off allowing it digging into the trough over the mid west.   As much as I hate to be wrong if this happens it actually would enforce my idea that I mentioned in an earlier post about how the models will come to a consensus quicker on some of these storm potentials as we are in an established pattern instead of going through a major pattern transition as we did late last week into earlier this week.

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Post by HectorO Fri Jan 24, 2014 7:10 am

Would be nice to get some tomorrow and Sunday/Monday also. Even if it's only an inch or two, to coat over the snow we have now. I park some vehicles on my front lawn so that doesn't always help my snowpack lol. Oh well, hope we get something decent next week.
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Post by Radz Fri Jan 24, 2014 8:35 am

sroc4 wrote:I will give this idea until this evenings 00z's before its gone.  As Frank stated above I will conceded for the most part GFS, CMC, Euro, and NAM are in fairly good agreement at 500mb with the idea that the PV drags this energy with it around its center as it pulls to the N and east instead of it breaking off allowing it digging into the trough over the mid west.   As much as I hate to be wrong if this happens it actually would enforce my idea that I mentioned in an earlier post about how the models will come to a consensus quicker on some of these storm potentials as we are in an established pattern instead of going through a major pattern transition as we did late last week into earlier this week.

Well if this is correct, and the models are coming to a consensus quicker - sorta like a learning curve to the confusing pattern, then i'm a little bummed by the over night model run outcomes for the late week event as well. I know we saw a huge turn around with the last storm late in the game, but my hope for a Miller A threat is somewhat diminished today as well. Maybe we see a coating monday to freshen the snowpack again...
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 24, 2014 10:19 am

Radz wrote:
sroc4 wrote:I will give this idea until this evenings 00z's before its gone.  As Frank stated above I will conceded for the most part GFS, CMC, Euro, and NAM are in fairly good agreement at 500mb with the idea that the PV drags this energy with it around its center as it pulls to the N and east instead of it breaking off allowing it digging into the trough over the mid west.   As much as I hate to be wrong if this happens it actually would enforce my idea that I mentioned in an earlier post about how the models will come to a consensus quicker on some of these storm potentials as we are in an established pattern instead of going through a major pattern transition as we did late last week into earlier this week.

Well if this is correct, and the models are coming to a consensus quicker - sorta like a learning curve to the confusing pattern, then i'm a little bummed by the over night model run outcomes for the late week event as well. I know we saw a huge turn around with the last storm late in the game, but my hope for a Miller A threat is somewhat diminished today as well. Maybe we see a coating monday to freshen the snowpack again...

Agreed. This is what Steve Dimartino had to say about the later in the week threat.

Steve D for midweek threat.

This 500 MB pattern is not support for a winter storm.
The Polar Vortex is not in the correct position for one. Forcing the mean trough east.
Note the VERY strong disturbance over south-central Canada. That's a "kicker".
It does what it sounds like. Kick anything along the coast, east.
As such, the threat for Wednesday is VERY low unless the 500 MB pattern complete changes. Threat for snow showers though.

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