1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm

Just when we thought it was over... 

It's not over. 

Here was the 00z GFS H5 map from LAST NIGHT 



In comparison, here is the latest 18z GFS H5 map 



Notice 3 important things:

1. There is a little more ridging in the west, not as zonal. 

2. The kicker is still there, but it's holding back more. 

3. More STJ energy involved helping to tilt the trough favorably. 

Let's see if this trends continues. Remain cautious though, I still think a lot more needs to happen and am leaning against a storm for midweek.

I was about to make a post about this, then I realized you already did. Although this thing still is a stretch for our area, it's continued trending NW to involve the southeast coast with snow at this point with a good 3+ days to continue trending, it's become something to watch. Overall I am still strongly against this storm for our area, however ATM I believe that somebody on the east coast is going to get a good amount of snow from this.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:I was about to make a post about this, then I realized you already did. Although this thing still is a stretch for our area, it's continued trending NW to involve the southeast coast with snow at this point with a good 3+ days to continue trending, it's become something to watch. Overall I am still strongly against this storm for our area, however ATM I believe that somebody on the east coast is going to get a good amount of snow from this.

Carolina's and Virginia could really see a nice snowstorm out of this

Theoretically I could see how this could trend a little further NW. The HP is not in a bad spot, at hour 54 it's in West Texas, this is typically good placement for a storm to come up the coast. For example blizzard of 06.

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2006/12-Feb-06-SeaLevelPressure.html

Problem is the trough in this case is very positively tilted and the weak storm goes out to sea. However, if by some way, it trends stronger and the jets phase it could come up the coast as the trough becomes neutral to negatively tilted. An unlikely thing to happen but theoretically speaking...

0z NAM (last night) 24 hour QPF hour 84



0z NAM (tonight) 24 hour QPF hour 60

It did move significantly further west. Lets see what happens, still amazing snow that far south jeeze.

GFS gets precip into Long Island, but there's no southern stream energy at all. No phase = no storm

But being that it's a few days out, this could change as it has drastically from this morning. Precip was nowhere near LI this morning

Ohhh, I am feelin it, we thought nothing of last week and look bam! SO lets see what happens.

Time frame???? I have a 6 am flight to Florida on the 29th!

This is all just a chance right now and not a huge one, but the topic thread is 29th-30th. Nothing else is known really at this point and as of right now we are in the clear.

from NWS interesting ..... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE OVER THE REGION AS A PROGRESSIVE
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST THAT`S WHAT ONE WOULD SAY BY LOOKING AT
DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS. THE SREF AND GEFS REVEAL THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SHARPER LESS PROGRESSIVE NEUTRALLY TILTED TROF.

ALL 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS...KEEP THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE PCPN SHIELD THOUGH IS VERY
CLOSE THOUGH IN THE CANADIAN...GFS AND ECMWF CLIPPING THE SOUTH FORK
OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THE NAM IS WELL SOUTH. THE 21Z AND
03Z SREF IS SIMILAR IN THIS THINKING. THE 21Z HAD SEVERAL MEMBERS
THAT HAVE A MUCH SLOWER SURFACE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO SLOWING DOWN AND
SHARPENING OF THE UPPER TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.
WHILE THE 03Z APPEARS TO BE TRENDING DOWN FROM THIS BASED ON PLUME
ANALYSIS. THE SHORTWAVE OF CONCERN IS NOW COMING INTO
SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA.

EXAMINATION OF THE 00Z GEFS ALSO SHOWS SOME MEMBERS WITH THIS IDEA
AS WELL. BASED ON THIS...SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE BEING ADDED TO THE WED
FORECAST. WILL CALL IS LIGHT SN...BUT NOTED THE 21Z SREF PLUMES HAD
TWO MEMBERS OVER 6 INCHES AND ABOUT 50% WITH MEASURABLE...LESS
MEMBERS NOW THOUGH IN THE 03Z RUN.


6z NAM ots

Same with 6z GFS. This one will probably be so close yet so far. I'm still hopping for snow showers at night for the Islanders Rangers game at Yankee stadium.

Nothing from overnight guidance gave me the confidence this one is going to be a hit for the area. Remains unlikely...

Frank:

I'm certainly not expecting anything up my way,not even flurries. If I was in eastern Suffolk county or Cape Cod I might be interested to watch this for the next couple of days, but that's the extent of it I see with my untrained eye.

Not sure how much it matters as I have no knowledge on interpreting H5 charts but the surface map of the 12z NAM took a nice jog westward compared to 0z and 6z. It now also clips eastern LI and Cape Cod.

12z RGEM gets light snow into the area, nothing significant though. And it's a volatile model



The problem continues to be the lack of phasing and the kicker system to the northwest.

The models keep moving NW but it's not going to be a big enough change to affect us IMO. Areas to our south that have missed out all year will get a nice storm from this one, coastal areas in the Southeast. Right now jackpot looks to be Virginia Beach and areas in north and south Carolina.

Unless something happens drastically this puppy's done   . Onto the next series of storms  !

This is amazing.

http://hp6.wright-weather.com/eastnmm.shtml

Long period of wintery mix and snow even into the Florida panhandle. New Orleans gets some snows on the backend.   

18z GFS is west. brings precip into nyc and ne N.J. eastern LI and south jersey looks to get 1-3, 2-4 inches. another 50-100 jog west maybe nyc can see a some accu snow.

from NWS....THE GFS FOLLOWS VERY CLOSELY TO THE PATH CARVED OUT BY THE GFS
ENSEMBLES...ECMWF AND SREF...FOR THE LOW PASSING OFFSHORE TUE NGT.
AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT SNOWFALL CHCS OFFSHORE...AND WILL FCST
FLURRIES FOR THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED SUBTLY WWD...THE POSITIVELY TILTED AND OPEN NATURE OF
THE H5 PATTERN LENDS SUPPORT TO THE PROGGED OUT TO SEA SOLN ATTM.

the key wording here is ATTM. I am not giving up on this on just yet.

Last week's storm was going OTS in this timeframe also. We can only hope.....

mako460 wrote:Last week's storm was going OTS in this timeframe also.  We can only hope.....

Not quite like this, I am near 99% positive that this storm is not ours, I leave the 1% for some crazy anomaly the models didn't pick up on that could pull it several hundred miles northwest which is where we would need it to be to get any decent precipitation, but that is EXTREMELY unlikely. Let the southeasters get their snowstorm, after this the pattern changes and the area of focus will be the northern Mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, and New England for snow.

Agree with Tom. Close thread.

LI esp Suffolk County needs to pay attention to this tonight for possible advisory level snowfall.  Trends, as has been the case for most of the winter, have been NW in the last 24hrs before events.  It appears this one is no different. Just keep in mind a shift in the current guidance south 30-40miles and nothing more than snow showers for all.  A shift to the North by the same amount and as much as 4-6 inches are "possible" in SE portions of Suffolk County. 

Steve Dimartino:

NWS UPTON: