NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm

+22
Dtone
skinsfan1177
goalscore
oldtimer
Sanchize06
pdubz
RJB8525
nofoboater
gigs68
Quietace
Dunnzoo
mako460
amugs
crippo84
CPcantmeasuresnow
sroc4
algae888
Nyi1058
aiannone
jmanley32
NjWeatherGuy
Frank_Wx
26 posters

Page 1 of 4 1, 2, 3, 4  Next

Go down

1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  Empty 1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 26, 2014 9:12 pm

Just when we thought it was over... 

It's not over. 

Here was the 00z GFS H5 map from LAST NIGHT 

1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  88b3d18b100597c5f8caabf395a6cfe7_zps0f5384bd

In comparison, here is the latest 18z GFS H5 map 

1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  123c170f58dbd1741a843e2b1cb3c90c_zpsbca599b6

Notice 3 important things:

1. There is a little more ridging in the west, not as zonal. 

2. The kicker is still there, but it's holding back more. 

3. More STJ energy involved helping to tilt the trough favorably. 

Let's see if this trends continues. Remain cautious though, I still think a lot more needs to happen and am leaning against a storm for midweek.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20727
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  Empty Re: 1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm

Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Jan 26, 2014 9:33 pm

I was about to make a post about this, then I realized you already did. Although this thing still is a stretch for our area, it's continued trending NW to involve the southeast coast with snow at this point with a good 3+ days to continue trending, it's become something to watch. Overall I am still strongly against this storm for our area, however ATM I believe that somebody on the east coast is going to get a good amount of snow from this.

NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  Empty Re: 1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 26, 2014 9:34 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:I was about to make a post about this, then I realized you already did. Although this thing still is a stretch for our area, it's continued trending NW to involve the southeast coast with snow at this point with a good 3+ days to continue trending, it's become something to watch. Overall I am still strongly against this storm for our area, however ATM I believe that somebody on the east coast is going to get a good amount of snow from this.


Carolina's and Virginia could really see a nice snowstorm out of this

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20727
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  Empty Re: 1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm

Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Jan 26, 2014 9:44 pm

Theoretically I could see how this could trend a little further NW. The HP is not in a bad spot, at hour 54 it's in West Texas, this is typically good placement for a storm to come up the coast. For example blizzard of 06.

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2006/12-Feb-06-SeaLevelPressure.html

Problem is the trough in this case is very positively tilted and the weak storm goes out to sea. However, if by some way, it trends stronger and the jets phase it could come up the coast as the trough becomes neutral to negatively tilted. An unlikely thing to happen but theoretically speaking...
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  Empty Re: 1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm

Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Jan 26, 2014 9:58 pm

0z NAM (last night) 24 hour QPF hour 84

1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  Nam_2210

0z NAM (tonight) 24 hour QPF hour 60

1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  Nam_2211
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  Empty Re: 1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm

Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 26, 2014 10:02 pm

It did move significantly further west. Lets see what happens, still amazing snow that far south jeeze.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 19094
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  Empty Re: 1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 26, 2014 10:50 pm

GFS gets precip into Long Island, but there's no southern stream energy at all. No phase = no storm

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20727
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  Empty Re: 1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm

Post by aiannone Sun Jan 26, 2014 10:51 pm

But being that it's a few days out, this could change as it has drastically from this morning. Precip was nowhere near LI this morning
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4523
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  Empty Re: 1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm

Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 26, 2014 11:22 pm

Ohhh, I am feelin it, we thought nothing of last week and look bam! SO lets see what happens.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 19094
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  Empty Re: 1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm

Post by Nyi1058 Sun Jan 26, 2014 11:37 pm

Time frame???? I have a 6 am flight to Florida on the 29th!

Nyi1058

Posts : 86
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2013-12-04
Age : 47
Location : Port Jefferson Long Island

Back to top Go down

1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  Empty Re: 1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm

Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 26, 2014 11:47 pm

This is all just a chance right now and not a huge one, but the topic thread is 29th-30th. Nothing else is known really at this point and as of right now we are in the clear.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 19094
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  Empty Re: 1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm

Post by algae888 Mon Jan 27, 2014 4:23 am

from NWS interesting ..... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE OVER THE REGION AS A PROGRESSIVE
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST THAT`S WHAT ONE WOULD SAY BY LOOKING AT
DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS. THE SREF AND GEFS REVEAL THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SHARPER LESS PROGRESSIVE NEUTRALLY TILTED TROF.

ALL 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS...KEEP THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE PCPN SHIELD THOUGH IS VERY
CLOSE THOUGH IN THE CANADIAN...GFS AND ECMWF CLIPPING THE SOUTH FORK
OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THE NAM IS WELL SOUTH. THE 21Z AND
03Z SREF IS SIMILAR IN THIS THINKING. THE 21Z HAD SEVERAL MEMBERS
THAT HAVE A MUCH SLOWER SURFACE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO SLOWING DOWN AND
SHARPENING OF THE UPPER TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.
WHILE THE 03Z APPEARS TO BE TRENDING DOWN FROM THIS BASED ON PLUME
ANALYSIS. THE SHORTWAVE OF CONCERN IS NOW COMING INTO
SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA.

EXAMINATION OF THE 00Z GEFS ALSO SHOWS SOME MEMBERS WITH THIS IDEA
AS WELL. BASED ON THIS...SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE BEING ADDED TO THE WED
FORECAST. WILL CALL IS LIGHT SN...BUT NOTED THE 21Z SREF PLUMES HAD
TWO MEMBERS OVER 6 INCHES AND ABOUT 50% WITH MEASURABLE...LESS
MEMBERS NOW THOUGH IN THE 03Z RUN.


6z NAM ots
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5284
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 60
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  Empty Re: 1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm

Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 27, 2014 7:04 am

Same with 6z GFS. This one will probably be so close yet so far. I'm still hopping for snow showers at night for the Islanders Rangers game at Yankee stadium.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 7457
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  Empty Re: 1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 27, 2014 8:30 am

Nothing from overnight guidance gave me the confidence this one is going to be a hit for the area. Remains unlikely...

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20727
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  Empty Re: 1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Jan 27, 2014 8:39 am

Frank:

I'm certainly not expecting anything up my way,not even flurries. If I was in eastern Suffolk county or Cape Cod I might be interested to watch this for the next couple of days, but that's the extent of it I see with my untrained eye.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6827
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 101
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  Empty Re: 1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm

Post by crippo84 Mon Jan 27, 2014 9:33 am

Not sure how much it matters as I have no knowledge on interpreting H5 charts but the surface map of the 12z NAM took a nice jog westward compared to 0z and 6z. It now also clips eastern LI and Cape Cod.
crippo84
crippo84

Posts : 335
Reputation : 20
Join date : 2013-11-07
Age : 38
Location : Manhattan

Back to top Go down

1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  Empty Re: 1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 27, 2014 10:55 am

12z RGEM gets light snow into the area, nothing significant though. And it's a volatile model

1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  Rgem_precip_mslp_nyc_15

The problem continues to be the lack of phasing and the kicker system to the northwest.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20727
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  Empty Re: 1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm

Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Jan 27, 2014 12:59 pm

The models keep moving NW but it's not going to be a big enough change to affect us IMO. Areas to our south that have missed out all year will get a nice storm from this one, coastal areas in the Southeast. Right now jackpot looks to be Virginia Beach and areas in north and south Carolina.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  Empty Re: 1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm

Post by amugs Mon Jan 27, 2014 1:43 pm

Unless something happens drastically this puppy's done  Sad . Onto the next series of storms Very Happy !

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 13748
Reputation : 212
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 52
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  Empty Re: 1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm

Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Jan 27, 2014 4:55 pm

This is amazing.

http://hp6.wright-weather.com/eastnmm.shtml

Long period of wintery mix and snow even into the Florida panhandle. New Orleans gets some snows on the backend.  Exclamation 
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  Empty Re: 1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm

Post by algae888 Mon Jan 27, 2014 5:08 pm

18z GFS is west. brings precip into nyc and ne N.J. eastern LI and south jersey looks to get 1-3, 2-4 inches. another 50-100 jog west maybe nyc can see a some accu snow.

from NWS....THE GFS FOLLOWS VERY CLOSELY TO THE PATH CARVED OUT BY THE GFS
ENSEMBLES...ECMWF AND SREF...FOR THE LOW PASSING OFFSHORE TUE NGT.
AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT SNOWFALL CHCS OFFSHORE...AND WILL FCST
FLURRIES FOR THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED SUBTLY WWD...THE POSITIVELY TILTED AND OPEN NATURE OF
THE H5 PATTERN LENDS SUPPORT TO THE PROGGED OUT TO SEA SOLN ATTM
.

the key wording here is ATTM. I am not giving up on this on just yet.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5284
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 60
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  Empty Re: 1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm

Post by mako460 Mon Jan 27, 2014 5:11 pm

Last week's storm was going OTS in this timeframe also. We can only hope.....

mako460
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 346
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 56
Location : Gerritsen Beach Brooklyn

Back to top Go down

1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  Empty Re: 1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm

Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Jan 27, 2014 5:53 pm

mako460 wrote:Last week's storm was going OTS in this timeframe also.  We can only hope.....

Not quite like this, I am near 99% positive that this storm is not ours, I leave the 1% for some crazy anomaly the models didn't pick up on that could pull it several hundred miles northwest which is where we would need it to be to get any decent precipitation, but that is EXTREMELY unlikely. Let the southeasters get their snowstorm, after this the pattern changes and the area of focus will be the northern Mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, and New England for snow.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  Empty Re: 1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 27, 2014 7:13 pm

Agree with Tom. Close thread.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20727
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  Empty Re: 1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm

Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 28, 2014 9:57 am

LI esp Suffolk County needs to pay attention to this tonight for possible advisory level snowfall.  Trends, as has been the case for most of the winter, have been NW in the last 24hrs before events.  It appears this one is no different. Just keep in mind a shift in the current guidance south 30-40miles and nothing more than snow showers for all.  A shift to the North by the same amount and as much as 4-6 inches are "possible" in SE portions of Suffolk County. 

Steve Dimartino: 1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  Screen-Shot-2014-01-28-at-8.53.47-AM-800x516

NWS UPTON:
1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  StormTotalSnowFcst

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 7457
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm  Empty Re: 1/29 - 1/30, 2014 Possible Snowstorm

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 4 1, 2, 3, 4  Next

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum