Feb 9th-10th Storm Final Discussion/Observations

Frank even if thid doesnt turn out to br one big dtorm dont we still jave a shot at moderate snow

My compliments to Frank for the outstanding blog, explaining in detail, with graphics, the players for this weekend's weather. I will be following here very closely, as always, to get the reliable word on how this will actually play out.

Frank I wait for your follow-up I don't put much faith in the METS I am sure that everyone on this forum believe that you are number one in credibility Have a great day

RJ lol, you could not be more right. Local mets are clueless many times or put to much stance in one model (GFS). Z100, which is not a weather reporting radio station AT ALL, but listened to by millions, someone asked is there really going to be 20-30 inches of snow?  Someone who will remain nameless (on the show) said no,no thats gone never would happen maybe a inch, ladies can you handle a inch hahaha.  I think the models will start to show a monster or at least a moderate storm by later today or tomorrow.  Last night it already trended way west of where it was earlier.

Snowman take a look at the GFS run for 284, hrs its a training over storms that dive out of Canada and ride up the coast and one more over great lakes. I think our winter will be well in to March. IMO

Jman: saying you think we will have a monster this weekend is the same as saying we won't. There is no conclusive evidence either way right now. We can all have gut feelings, mine is the way the winter has gone and the way the models were just a couple of days ago and have trended this year I think there's something in the works snow wise for this weekend but I don't think anyone has a good idea what. Frank has only stated the players are all still there, to get them all together that's a whole different ball game.

Like everyone on this board I hope they all learn to play as one this weekend it would be awesome.

Idk how any met could say this storm is not going to happen. We have seen time after time storms missing us to the south trend both north and west and nail our area. I know some mets are still calling for a few inches Sunday but even that's not definite. The trends this year have also been more amplified events. It's just not right to forecast this fat out. They should say something like "as of now we the models are showing a light event but that could change and I'll have more information later in the week." It just annoys me so much and I know it shouldn't. Lol. I really have to stop watching any met on TV and just listen to Frank and the other members here because this forum talks reality.

I actually like that they are all dismissing this now hopefully it has the same effect as a couple of days ago when everyone was hyping this beyond reality. I love when they have to back track at the last minute and then start explaining how they warned us 10 days ago. With the way this winter has gone it wouldn't surprise any of us.

This is where I come for weather now. I never listen to mets anymore. Can't remember the last time I listened to a news forecast on tv, especially news 12. That's the last station on the planet I would ever listen too.

tigernumba1 wrote:Idk how any met could say this storm is not going to happen.  We have seen time after time storms missing us to the south trend both north and west and nail our area.  I know some mets are still calling for a few inches Sunday but even that's not definite.  The trends this year have also been more amplified events.  It's just not right to forecast this fat out.  They should say something like "as of now we the models are showing a light event but that could change and I'll have more information later in the week."  It just annoys me so much and I know it shouldn't.  Lol.  I really have to stop watching any met on TV and just listen to Frank and the other members here because this forum talks reality.  

Agreed 100% And the opposite is true as well. If they think something big is coming they could have said "Right now the models suggest a big storm, but that can change and i'll have more information later in the week"

To play Devil's Advocate, the Network Mets can't go out on a limb 5 days out if they see something. They have to be conservative until they have a better handle on things...we can hype and wishcast all we want here (although we really try not to!), it won't adversely affect many people if we are wrong...but if a networkk met declares a big storm Sunday and is wrong...it affects soooo many more people, millions in the metro area...so they will wait and wait and wait. Remember the blizzard that wasn't???

Dunnzoo wrote:To play Devil's Advocate, the Network Mets can't go out on a limb 5 days out if they see something. They have to be conservative until they have a better handle on things...we can hype and wishcast all we want here (although we really try not to!), it won't adversely affect many people if we are wrong...but if a networkk met declares a big storm Sunday and is wrong...it affects soooo many more people, millions in the metro area...so they will wait and wait and wait. Remember the blizzard that wasn't???

I agree 100% with everything you stated there Janet. The pros are handcuffed to a degree on what they can and cannot say and we are free to speak our minds but most on this board do not wish cast. That's what makes this board so great.

With that said, some of the pros have been rather off this year and some of the things they have said have been to put it mildly odd.

Not an easy job to predict winter weather for 20 million people over such a diverse winter weather area. You have the central jersey shore which only averages about 20 inches of snow a year and parts of the Hudson valley that average 60 with everyone in between. That's a tough area to forecast so I give them their due for that.

TWC says no storm at all maybe light snow that can drop maybe an inch...I hope they all get egg on their faces..again lol

The local Met on the radio here on Long Island Pat Pagano said this morning that although the models no longer show a significant storm he will wait till tomorrow or the next day, before he says nothing is going to happen. He was right on and I was happy he didn't just dismiss the storm. He's been pretty good this whole winter.

He put it in layman terms saying there are 3 pieces of energy coming onto the west coast and if any of them join together we may have a storm impacting our region.

The potential is still there but fading fast. The NAM is still close but the storm that forms still doesnt form and kicks to the east fast. It just seems that the energy does not want to connect. I was hoping to see a trend last night but so far nothing has changed. Ill give it another day before I write it off completely. Note it is likely we get some light snow I am strictly talking about a larger storm potential. It seems like the strong HP to the north is going to suppress the southern energy at this time.

Scullybutcher wrote:He put it in layman terms saying there are 3 pieces of energy coming onto the west coast and if any of them join together we may have a storm impacting our region.

Exactly. Whoever this is, he deserves credit.

I posted this on my facebook page for some of my fam and friends to look at.  I wish the TV mets would approach things like this and show a graphic about it.  Keep in mind all that we are going to delete posts that bash any Mets so try not to bash anyone in particular.  Thanks.  

Feb 9th-10th Snow storm update:

I have been asked a hundred times in the past 24 hrs about the possible weekend snow storm, so here is a brief update. For those who are hoping for the huge 1-2 feet of snow Nor Easter advertised for the past week, unfortunately it is looking less and less likely that that will happen. Now that yesterdays storm is up and out of here it appears that the jet stream will remain split into two branches, a northern branch, and a southern branch. You need the energy in the northern branch to "Phase" with the energy in the southern branch at the right time and location to create the massive snow storm that was showing up on the models last week. The way I see it now there is about a 10% chance that happens. There is about a 40% chance of light accumulations (less than 6"), and 40% chance of a moderate event (6-10"). The last 10% goes to seeing no snow at all on Sunday. The two energies associated with the two branches will only come onshore on the west coast by Friday, so I am not going to comment further until at least Sat.

You know me and my dorky weather obsession. When and if I feel like something will happen I will share.

P.S There are two other "possible" events for later next week as well.

Good stuff Doc, and I agree. This is what Meteorologist Mike Faveretta has to say:

Mike Favaretta wrote:
Out to Sea?

"Not so fast…before we write off Sunday's storm just because some "models" say so, let's remember what has happened for almost every snow storm this past season.

7 days before: the forecast looked disastrous with a monster storm.
4-5 days before: the storm seems to "disappear" on the weather charts.
3 days before (now): the storm is re-appears, but it stays just to our South.
1-2 days before: the storm jogs further and further north, with every 12 hour update, slapping us with last-minute, largely unexpected snow.

Are we going to get fooled again? No! Let's err on the cautious side and keep snow in the forecast for Sunday. Will it be monstrous? Probably not, but it will still snow during the latter half of the weekend, beginning Saturday night at the earliest. I'm thinking manageable: like a 3-6" deal, ending Sunday. If all goes to plan, kids and parents should be able to get to school and work without much hassle on Monday.

Wednesday could be more significant. More on that tomorrow.

mike"

I sure hope it comes back pretty much every local news and met saying not much of a storm

Well for sure, even if we get 6-10 this weekend thats enough for me, I do not need 2 feet, my neighborhood would be impassable as it is almost now. I think something suspicious is up with the plowers. Only little plows have come by and there are areas of hard compacked =bumpy ice and slop on top, wouldnt a big plow take that right out? Seems like they aren't soing their jobs, even a cop got stuck.

Per 12z NAM and GFS, still not enough ridging in the west...maybe a few inches on Sunday...

Dunnzoo wrote:Per 12z NAM and GFS, still not enough ridging in the west...maybe a few inches on Sunday...

thats what TWC is saying right now too light snow but maybe a few inches at best

The ridge in the west is blah as currently forecasted IMO but I agree with Doc above about the potential for a moderate snowstorm - Mother Nature saying a big _ _ to those sensualist who overplayed this snow mega don this week.  She will catch us off guard to stick it to those.  The meteorologist Mike F is on my page or I am on his page about this winter and the storms we have had. We shall see but I am putting more faith into the midweek storms. Not throwing in the towel at all here just not doing it for me right now - maybe the heavy penicillin I am on for my bronchitis?!

I am sure that will change once the SREF's and GGEM go bonkers tonight - HAHAHA!!

SREF runs have certainly trended much better. This is the 9z run, NOT the latest 15z which should come out soon.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_9z/srefloop.html

This may be another setup where a clipper comes down the pike and picks up Atlantic moisture and intensifies. A fully phased storm is becoming less likely as the southern energy looks to be suppressed by high pressure. A moderate snowfall is not out of the question. Light snowfall seems like a given at this time.

NWS agrees with you saying light snow is possible with a chance at something more significant.

It ain't dead yet!

docstox12 wrote:NWS agrees with you saying light snow is possible with a chance at something more significant.

It ain't dead yet!

True, unfortunately it looks like just another light event with moderate possible. I'm not going to complain much given my yearly snowfall is over 40 inches so far but I have really wanted a strong phased storm and so far we haven't had it. For a year dealing with weaker systems we are doing very well though and for that I cannot whine too much.