February 12th-14th Storm Potential

Hey NJ relax man yes that'd be a very bad idea.

Lonnie Quinn likes 8-12 with pockets of 14+

Mets2695 wrote:Lee just said it looks like we are seeing an east trend and a colder trend which will mean a slower changeover with higher totals.

So far not seeing an east trend that benefits the coast at all. GFS went east and stronger and it's warmer, CMC didn't change position much but it's warmer and much drier. NAM is good for coast but so far alone. UKMET is dry from what I'm hearing. I don't like my position ATM. Right now the only place I see high confidence in snow is in the southern Mid-Atl, further north it is still a crapshoot.

Seems like the pro mets totals are trending towards Franks map !! Molto biene !

Mid hudson going to get nailed and starting to look better for everyone.

So let's pretend the GFS is right, great kite flying weather with light rain and 50mph gusts out of the NE? I don't think so. This is just so weird...

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=226838

Frank...I'm a lurker here...It seems like Lonnie's forecast is the most in-line with yours

Frank_Wx wrote:Lonnie Quinn likes 8-12 with pockets of 14+

I didn't watch Lonnie did 8-12 include western LI?

I think those of us that are able to should sleep on it, check in the morning hopefully be pleasently surprised with Euro and o6z models.

I would hate to be a TV met ATM.

I'm going to bed. Hopefully i will wake up to good news. Night guys!

dsvinos wrote:Frank...I'm a lurker here...It seems like Lonnie's forecast is the most in-line with yours

Welcome, post more! And yes he was very enthused on a snowier trend.

tigernumba1 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Lonnie Quinn likes 8-12 with pockets of 14+

I didn't watch Lonnie did 8-12 include western LI?

6-10 but he said the trend is there to bring 8-12 into the island

00z GGEM is EAST!!!!!!!!!!!!

GFS = east
NAM = east
GGEM = east
UKIE = east
RGEM = east
Frank = happy

Frank_Wx wrote:

dsvinos wrote:Frank...I'm a lurker here...It seems like Lonnie's forecast is the most in-line with yours

Welcome, post more! And yes he was very enthused on a snowier trend.

tigernumba1 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Lonnie Quinn likes 8-12 with pockets of 14+

I didn't watch Lonnie did 8-12 include western LI?

6-10 but he said the trend is there to bring 8-12 into the island

Honestly, looking at all models, some of which reputable, the trend to me is just more all over the place then it was earlier. We have MORE solutions then we did 12 hours ago. Does it mean they are all completely realistic? Not necessarily but it's stirring the pot and making this a more complicated forecast.

Frank you still comfortable with your map?  And I wasn't totally clear as the forum was so full, so you do not think any of us will have blizzard watches or warnings?  With the wind wouldnt it warrent it?

Alex Lee changed what he said earlier in the newscast Most of the METS have uped their totals saying they are seeing colder trend tonite No news to us and Frank

Sure is NJ, you know I just realized I am about to break 1000, lol granted many not necessary but cool nonetheless.

Frank_Wx wrote:00z GGEM is EAST!!!!!!!!!!!!

GFS = east AND WARM
NAM = east Pretty much the same, a little NW with heavy precip, best for area
GGEM = east WARM/DRY
UKIE = east DRY
RGEM = east WARM/DRY
Frank = happy

Tom = Meltdown

Frank_Wx wrote:00z GGEM is EAST!!!!!!!!!!!!

GFS = east
NAM = east
GGEM = east
UKIE = east
RGEM = east
Frank = happy

lol Ryan=happy as well

NJ is your name Alex?  If so I am Jon, I see you guys calling each other by name sometimes and have no idea whos talking to who lol.

I'm Alex, NJ is Tom haha

jmanley32 wrote:NJ is your name Alex?  If so I am Jon, I see you guys calling each other by name sometimes and have no idea whos talking to who lol.

I'm Tom, 0z GGEM ends as rain opposed to heavy burst of snow on 12z, not sure why everyone is liking these trends....

See for yourself.

collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Jon.... not sure what to think lol, theres just too much still not there but the eastward movements were good.

So, based on what I've read today, if the storm trends east that would mean less rain at the Jersey Shore correct?

Chris here...just figured i would throw it out there

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

jimv45 wrote:Mid hudson going to get nailed and starting to look better for everyone.

what is your friend at NWS Albany saying?