Re: 02/13 Godzilla Storm Obs. Thread / Final Discussions

[NjWeatherGuy]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/viewsector.php?sector=18

[NjWeatherGuy]

18z NAM was an incredible run, R/S line lifts north right as heavy precip is leaving for NW of 95. Impressive backend banding, looks like 12" NW of 95.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_18z/etaloop.html

[Frank_Wx]

There is a strong gradient along I-95 for 8-12 inch type of snow and 12+ type of snow. NW of 95 is going to get slammed.

[NjWeatherGuy]

There is a strong gradient along I-95 for 8-12 inch type of snow and 12+ type of snow. NW of 95 is going to get slammed.

U got a wxbell map?

[mako460]

At this point i think I'm just going to drop the kids off at Grandma's house, take the wife out for an early Valentine's Day dinner, and hug her instead of hugging every model run. This is insane.

[tigernumba1]

considering this is a nowcast storm i am correct in saying north shore LI, NYC, and NE Coast of NJ all have chances at higher OR lower snow totals?

[Frank_Wx]

[NjWeatherGuy]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014021218/nam4km_ref_frzn_neus.html

[Frank_Wx]

That snow map looks overdone. The WeatherBell maps take freezing rain, sleet, as snow. So that's included in the map. Still a lot of frozen precip

[NjWeatherGuy]

That snow map looks overdone. The WeatherBell maps take freezing rain, sleet, as snow. So that's included in the map. Still a lot of frozen precip

Most of it NW of 95 is snow.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014021218/nam4km_ref_frzn_neus.html

Weenie run, even though I wish this is right but cannot really see this verifying, still think best axis will be further NW than this shows.

[Frank_Wx]

Not really weenie run. It has support lol. NAM/GGEM are in the same camp. Bullseye NNJ. Euro/UKIE bullseye western areas more.

[aiannone]

waiting on the Upton update

[NjWeatherGuy]

Not really weenie run. It has support lol. NAM/GGEM are in the same camp. Bullseye NNJ. Euro/UKIE bullseye western areas more.

It's close... I've just been having trust issues with the NAM lately haha.

[deadrabbit79]

Frank, thoughts on White Plains NY, mid westchester county? 10-12?

[HEATMISER]

I am with you Mets.. still waiting..

[NjWeatherGuy]

4km NAM showing 6"+ falling in 3 hours in that heavy band...   

[Frank_Wx]

I just died looking at the 4k NAM. CCB is incredible over NJ. That CCB Thursday night is a huge wildcard.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Mt. Holly update, nicceeee.

[aiannone]

they went colder. Maybe upton will too

[colosa4]

upton updated my local forecast,1-2 tonight with 3-7 tomorrow and another 1-3 Thursday night.

[NjWeatherGuy]

they went colder. Maybe upton will too

No, they raised snow totals NW. Axis is the same they just upped totals due to more confidence.

[aiannone]

THEY UPPED! FRANK I THINK THEY SAW YOUR MAP!

[colosa4]

Upton's update
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormTotalPrecip/StormTotalSnowFcst.png

[NjWeatherGuy]

THEY UPPED! FRANK I THINK THEY SAW YOUR MAP!

They're leaning colder than Mt. Holly, maps are quite off if you put them side by side.

[Frank_Wx]

Copy cats. This storm is going to be insane. Can't wait

[jmanley32]

Wow 10-14 all way into NYC now and 14-18 way into even northern WC. Wow, this is going higher and higher.

[gigs68]

I'm so confused. Upton for my area went from 2-4 to 8-10. I thought the storm was warmer.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormTotalPrecip/StormTotalSnowFcst.png

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