Re: Official Long Range Thread 2.0

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Mar 16, 2014 9:54 pm

It looks like the pattern will be undergoing a reloading process this week with temps mainly around normal, becoming above normal by the end of the week and into next weekend.

By next week, it looks like the blocking over the Pacific redevelops (-EPO) and the Polar Vortex situates itself over the Hudson, providing a trough for the eastern U.S.

Where that PV actually positions itself and its intensity will determine whether or not we can get a storm to come up the coast, or just slide south like the last two have this month. It's actually the same type of pattern (-EPO/+PNA/+NAO) as we've seen this month but the reason why storms have not panned out (for the northeast) is due to de- amplification at the wrong time with no blocking. Also ran into some bad luck with H5 energy getting cut off beneath the western ridge instead of advancing east.

Will update again next weekend. Storm threat is between March 24-28

by **jmanley32** Sun Mar 16, 2014 9:58 pm

Frank posting a map 10 days out wow! Even has me in 24-30 inch area, thats crazy. Won't believe it for one second until it happens. I hope not the KOD because thats a insane storm I saw the euro map takes a awesome track. Did Mr. B post it yet lol. We will have to wait and see. I knew we still had a pattern at least for possible storms as its certainly not getting warm.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Mar 16, 2014 9:59 pm

I actually kinda like the signal for this storm moreso than the other two "bust" storms so far this month. I don't know, I just have a hunch. And those usually come to fruition with me.

by **jmanley32** Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:04 pm

yeah dunzoo, saw that diff is it looks like id be rain for GFS versus one heck of a snowstorm with Euro. What two extremes!

by **jmanley32** Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:06 pm

Frank if you get me 30 inches of snow, I will do something crazy and tape it lol, but I won't go outside and make near naked snow angels, in that much snow you wouldnt be able to see me anyways lol.

by **jmanley32** Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:09 pm

You know Frank and I know we won't be discussing this much until next weekend, which is still 5 days out of 26th was the date at 7 if 28th, but I had been seeing signals of something in this time frame for a while now but being so far out and this forum telling me long term means nothing I didn't pay it much mond. But one can't ignore a snow map like that, even if it is 10 days out and going to change 20x before then. Will be checking in lucky this a super busy week, so I won't be able to engulf myself in something thats too far off.

by **jmanley32** Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:10 pm

Oh thats through the 31st, so is that all from one storm or more than one? I just noticed that sorry for my incorrect info above.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:11 pm

jmanley32 wrote:You know Frank and I know we won't be discussing this much until next weekend, which is still 5 days out of 26th was the date at 7 if 28th, but I had been seeing signals of something in this time frame for a while now but being so far out and this forum telling me long term means nothing I didn't pay it much mond. But one can't ignore a snow map like that, even if it is 10 days out and going to change 20x before then. Will be checking in lucky this a super busy week, so I won't be able to engulf myself in something thats too far off.

It's not the snow map I'm really honing in on. It's just the general storm signal.

by **jmanley32** Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:12 pm

Right I understand that, just such pretty colors lol (gosh that makes me sound like a dingbat lol)

by **pdubz** Sun Mar 16, 2014 11:32 pm

we can only dream

Official Long Range Thread 2.0 - Page 32 Post-16714-1395023555_thumb

by **jmanley32** Sun Mar 16, 2014 11:39 pm

pdubz you see the snowfall map a page back frank posted? Thats one monster. Dream HARD lol

by **pdubz** Sun Mar 16, 2014 11:43 pm

jmanley32 wrote:pdubz you see the snowfall map a page back frank posted? Thats one monster. Dream HARD lol

Hahaha yeah i did but sadly it'll only happen in my dreams

by **jmanley32** Sun Mar 16, 2014 11:57 pm

hey ya never know its wx, could be our one HECS frank called for in the contest thread.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Mar 17, 2014 11:17 am

Guys, this potential is so far in the future I'm not even going to look at it. I know it's there but there's really no point. Need I think of the past several storms, honestly the next week we know for a fact will be boring so I'm just going to get through that and then this potential will be closer, I'm feeling like it will be gone by then. Screw the long range EURO, how many times are we going to get suckered in?

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Mar 17, 2014 11:25 am

If there is one positive thing for this threat is that there seems to be an ok amount of cold air available throughout the GFS period. We've seen the snow axis shift south since February and theoretically before it ends all together it should shift back to the north, could we get a storm during this transition period? It's possible but too far away to say.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Mar 17, 2014 4:44 pm

EURO shows the PV unrelenting through the end of the month, would be a cold and dry pattern if this verifies

Official Long Range Thread 2.0 - Page 32 Scree104

Official Long Range Thread 2.0 - Page 32 Scree104

Official Long Range Thread 2.0 - Page 32 Scree105

Enough already Mad

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 17, 2014 4:49 pm

what happened to the storm threat? No longer there now that PV is south? As I said either snow like cats and dogs or get warm! I order the wx to do the 1st lol

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 17, 2014 4:50 pm

At this point I am hoping we may get warm by August? HAhAHAHA

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Mar 17, 2014 4:51 pm

jmanley32 wrote:what happened to the storm threat? No longer there now that PV is south? As I said either snow like cats and dogs or get warm! I order the wx to do the 1st lol

I wouldn't even call it a threat or anything this far out, it's around 10 days away and it could disappear or stay but then trend to nothing for our area as it approaches, why I'm not going to bother looking at it until a week from now.

by **sroc4** Mon Mar 17, 2014 5:07 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:what happened to the storm threat? No longer there now that PV is south? As I said either snow like cats and dogs or get warm! I order the wx to do the 1st lol

I wouldn't even call it a threat or anything this far out, it's around 10 days away and it could disappear or stay but then trend to nothing for our area as it approaches, why I'm not going to bother looking at it until a week from now.

Liar..lol Youll look plenty.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Mar 17, 2014 6:23 pm

sroc4 wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:what happened to the storm threat? No longer there now that PV is south? As I said either snow like cats and dogs or get warm! I order the wx to do the 1st lol

I wouldn't even call it a threat or anything this far out, it's around 10 days away and it could disappear or stay but then trend to nothing for our area as it approaches, why I'm not going to bother looking at it until a week from now.

Liar..lol Youll look plenty.

To take anything seriously, I think it would be hard to argue against long-range models interpretations of storms are essentially useless.

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Mar 17, 2014 6:49 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:what happened to the storm threat? No longer there now that PV is south? As I said either snow like cats and dogs or get warm! I order the wx to do the 1st lol

I wouldn't even call it a threat or anything this far out, it's around 10 days away and it could disappear or stay but then trend to nothing for our area as it approaches, why I'm not going to bother looking at it until a week from now.

Liar..lol Youll look plenty.

To take anything seriously, I think it would be hard to argue against long-range models interpretations of storms are essentially useless.

I hate to agree, but I do. lol. I am so tired of these long range signals ending up being a hit for SOMEWHERE ELSE.

P.S. Dulles got 11 inches today, 2nd highest snowfall in history.

by **Dtone** Mon Mar 17, 2014 7:48 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:what happened to the storm threat? No longer there now that PV is south? As I said either snow like cats and dogs or get warm! I order the wx to do the 1st lol

I wouldn't even call it a threat or anything this far out, it's around 10 days away and it could disappear or stay but then trend to nothing for our area as it approaches, why I'm not going to bother looking at it until a week from now.

Liar..lol Youll look plenty.

To take anything seriously, I think it would be hard to argue against long-range models interpretations of storms are essentially useless.

I hate to agree, but I do. lol. I am so tired of these long range signals ending up being a hit for SOMEWHERE ELSE.

P.S. Dulles got 11 inches today, 2nd highest snowfall in history.

In history?? That can't be. A record for the date maybe.
I heard Philly got enough snow to push them to 2nd snowest winter ever..Somewhere around 68"

by **aiannone** Mon Mar 17, 2014 7:56 pm

Paul Pastelok on the upcoming pattern.

Long-range models are flirting with a system around March 25 in the East. The GFS is still more progressive with the pattern, pushing air masses faster across the country. The predicted warmup will occur this week but now cut back because of the progressive pattern. So we get two near- to above-normal days from the eastern Plains to the East Coast, rather than four.

The video goes into detail about the EPO and its impacts on the pattern. Expect more cold in the pattern the rest of March and also going into April. This cold will continue to be impressive, as far as departures from normal. As long as we continue to see strong upper ridges building up into northern Alaska and near the pole, the track of highs will continue to move over colder ground and will continue to hold strengthen moving into the U.S.

by **aiannone** Mon Mar 17, 2014 7:57 pm

by **Dunnzoo** Mon Mar 17, 2014 8:21 pm

I just want it to break for the 31st! I need 60* at Citifield!

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 17, 2014 8:21 pm

So Paul P agrees with me about the potential for next week, and so does Bastardi. He said on Twitter this is the most potential he's seen this winter.

It's hard to pinpoint- but the pattern just "looks" and "feels" right for next week. It's something I can't really explain. That's why yesterday I went as far saying next week has the better potential than any storm threats we've seen this month.

Wait and see mode. Won't be showing models again until the weekend.

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