Re: Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

[jmanley32]

GFS has some type of low developing over the atlantic and centering over cape but earlier. And holy crap the CMC has a full fledged hurricane hitting coast at 980mb!

[Quietace]

GFS has some type of low developing over the atlantic and centering over cape but earlier.  And holy crap the CMC has a full fledged hurricane hitting coast at 980mb!

The GEM still has this error in rapidly developing warm core Atlantic systems. Does it all the time. Hopefully it will be fixed when the model is upgraded. Until then you can throw it out.

[jmanley32]

Ahh thanks Ryan, yah I thought this was a bit crazy.

[jmanley32]

The Euro does show something similar, so you think whatever it may be if it even IS(240hrs olut we know no confidence), non tropical?

[Quietace]

The Euro does show something similar, so you think whatever it may be if it even IS(240hrs olut we know no confidence), non tropical?

Non tropical to maybe a hybrid. Will have to watch it the next few days.

[jmanley32]

The CMC really shows quite a storm, now heading directly into NJ and NYC, 850mb winds 60-100kts! Will be interesting to see if this transpires even though the model has issues, in no way am I wishing this upon anyone, its not like snowstorms where I get excited yes I am awe'd by mother nature buit NJ and NYC do not need something like this. As ace said on the may observations the euro shows a weak signal but until they both lose it completely I am going to keep a eye on it. First thing is to see if it indeed develops in the carribean because thats where it starts showing development.

[Quietace]

Ohh I like t-storms, gimmi a good loud one like the one this morning but it was only one boom, but damn it it cause a impact lol.  Question the CMC is still showing a potential cyclone of some sort, even bastardi tweeted that it is model feedback probably, how long does model feedback usually happen for?  Its been about two days of runs with this storm showing.  Havent seen Euro yet but it was also hinting at some signs of a development.

Yes, still has the bias of rapidly developing the strength of the cyclone. The 12z Euro is much more logical in having tropical energy(the same the GEM is eyeing) phasing with energy swinging down the base of the trough. It then allows the main piece of energy to cut over the Appalachians and cut off over the GL.


Because its a little sloppy, we get more of a dual low structure and it gives us some rain before the phase completes and the low cus off. Much more logical than driving a sub 1000mb into the South East coast. Will watch what happens over the next day. The spot of origin of the energy already changed with the 12z runs today, so will have to see if the 0z change the origin and evolution again.

[Quietace]

This will most likely be a sub tropical heavy rain event IMO. No name storm etc. CMC is plain wrong and everyone freaking out about it on twitter needs to stop. lol

[jmanley32]

Whos freaking out about it on twitter? JB mentioned it (he always gets excited as we know, and he should know better), Maue did the right thing and said it was dead wrong and didnt post graphic. I think IMO it will be heavy rain and maybe strong wind event if it can form a low but no, no name, not fully tropical, if the CMC somehow verified however I would def have a new respect for it, however the outcome wouldn't be too great for the east coast.

[jmanley32]

So, even if its a heavy rain event that could be big trouble as that last rain still has rivers flowing good. We def don't need 2-5 inches+ of rain. But as you said and nice graphic BTW, Euro is more logical, the system is actually over PR right now, accuwx has a story on it already, and the hype has begun. LOL

[Quietace]

If this long duration heavy rain threat continues to develop, the flooding potential will be major and dangerous. But this isnt a tropical threat so lets move discussion.

[jmanley32]

Oh ok I was going to ask that ace, where would you like me to move to long range or may obs?

[jmanley32]

Oh lordy here comes the hype....

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast-2014/26660844

To say such specific things is just not smart IMO, June and July may be active but to call numbers out and threats will just instill fear. Not to say we shouldnt be prepared but starting worrying when there is a storm to track.

[sabamfa]

Not sure if I should post this here or in the vacation thread as it's so far out. Can anyone give me their thoughts on hurricanes/severe weather for Fort Lauderdale like the last week of July? I'm planning on booking an 8 day stay but am slightly concerned.

[jmanley32]

There is NOOOO way to know anything in terms of precip that far away, let alone even a week out sorry. If anyone disagrees please feel free to correct me.

[sabamfa]

I didn't mean for someone to say, "well, it'll rain a quarter of an inch on Tuesday July XX but watch out on Thursday!!!" I'm looking for thoughts on, historically, how are things in that general area of the country during that time period....are hurricanes common in FL around that time or is it usually later, are people thinking FL will be starting earlier this year/be busier this year, what are other meteorologists/weather boards saying.....any thoughts. I'm sorry if I wasn't more clear the first time. I'm just looking for a general rough idea for if it's usually particularly stormy during late July in FL or if anyone here would really be too concerned with having such a vacation.

[jmanley32]

GFS has been hinting at the very end (384 hrs) of something tropical developing in the caribbean, until todays runs it has kept pushing out to 384 hrs each run. Today it now is starting at 288 and by 384 is a 995 mb low (or TS possibly) off east side of FL and appears to be moving north (coastal hugger? Way to far out but since its now jumped u by several days and the GFS has been hinting at this development for many days now I am going to keep a eye on it. Below is when it starts and the second is as far out as GFS goes (fantasyland as we call it on myfoxhurricane (a great chat site and tropical info site for anyone who doesn't know about it). I also heard GFS went through some upgrades that may be helping it predict that far out. We will have to watch and see.

[jmanley32]

[algae888]

good news! nws hurricane prediction center came out with their forecast for this season. they say only 8-13 named storms 3- 6 hurricanes and only 1-2 major hurricanes. if this pans out it will limit deaths and injuries plus economic loss from these devastating storms.

[algae888]

according to nws el nino is reason why we will have weak hurricane season. typically do not get many when we have an el nino.

[jmanley32]

True but the forecast is also calling for all close to land developments, which is not good odds for no landfalls. Look at latest GFS, and Mr. RM started the hype on twitter, I am surprised as usually he is more cautious than JB. Bad senario if it does happen.

[jmanley32]

And worse I do not see any fronts to stop this from going up the coast, of course it will change a million times and maybe not even be there, but the GFS has ben consistent past 3-5 days of developing something by the Ucitan penninsula and moving up to where it is shown in the above image. If it was the CMC i'd throw it out however the GFS as far as I heard went through some major upgrades so we will see. All we can do is be prepared, mother nature is going to bring whatever she brings us.

[Quietace]

good news! nws hurricane prediction center came out with their forecast for this season. they say only 8-13 named storms 3- 6 hurricanes and only 1-2 major hurricanes. if this pans out it will limit deaths and injuries plus economic loss from these devastating storms.

Only takes one system to cause massive deaths and injuries plus economic loss. Even in a slow season anything can happen. Example is the 92 Atlantic season.

[Quietace]

And worse I do not see any fronts to stop this from going up the coast, of course it will change a million times and maybe not even be there, but the GFS has ben consistent past 3-5 days of developing something by the Ucitan penninsula and moving up to where it is shown in the above image.  If it was the CMC i'd throw it out however the GFS as far as I heard went through some major upgrades so we will see.  All we can do is be prepared, mother nature is going to bring whatever she brings us.

300+ hour noise right now. Nothing to even be remotely worried about it IMO.

[Frank_Wx]

good news! nws hurricane prediction center came out with their forecast for this season. they say only 8-13 named storms 3- 6 hurricanes and only 1-2 major hurricanes. if this pans out it will limit deaths and injuries plus economic loss from these devastating storms.

Only takes one system to cause massive deaths and injuries plus economic loss. Even in a slow season anything can happen. Example is the 92 Atlantic season.

Exactly. That was Andrew, right?

Anyway, although this will be a slow season, I think the east coast has to be watched. SST's in the GOM are below normal and I feel the upper pattern configuration this summer supports an east coast landfall, specifically from eastern Florida to North Carolina. Not so much our area.

[Quietace]

good news! nws hurricane prediction center came out with their forecast for this season. they say only 8-13 named storms 3- 6 hurricanes and only 1-2 major hurricanes. if this pans out it will limit deaths and injuries plus economic loss from these devastating storms.

Only takes one system to cause massive deaths and injuries plus economic loss. Even in a slow season anything can happen. Example is the 92 Atlantic season.

Exactly. That was Andrew, right?

Anyway, although this will be a slow season, I think the east coast has to be watched. SST's in the GOM are below normal and I feel the upper pattern configuration this summer supports an east coast landfall, specifically from eastern Florida to North Carolina. Not so much our area.

Right, 7 named storms total (10 depressions also) yet $26.502 billion in damage and 73 fatalities (almost all from Andrew).

[jmanley32]

Yeah Frank, but if it was a major, even by time it made it up here could still be a strong remnant or TS. I have seen landfalls in carolinas that hold weak hurricane up to the area. Will just have to see, and yes ace not worried, but my only thing was its not the cmc and its been showing something for quite some time. Now the GFS is taking it OTS so who knows. If in a week there is some signs of development then we can really start to watch was just pointing it out, also that its made it to twitter already, well that was quick.

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