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Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

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Post by jmanley32 Thu May 08, 2014 8:37 pm

Ahh thanks Ryan, yah I thought this was a bit crazy.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu May 08, 2014 8:42 pm

The Euro does show something similar, so you think whatever it may be if it even IS(240hrs olut we know no confidence), non tropical?
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Post by Quietace Thu May 08, 2014 8:54 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:The Euro does show something similar, so you think whatever it may be if it even IS(240hrs olut we know no confidence), non tropical?
Non tropical to maybe a hybrid. Will have to watch it the next few days.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri May 09, 2014 9:53 am

The CMC really shows quite a storm, now heading directly into NJ and NYC, 850mb winds 60-100kts! Will be interesting to see if this transpires even though the model has issues, in no way am I wishing this upon anyone, its not like snowstorms where I get excited yes I am awe'd by mother nature buit NJ and NYC do not need something like this. As ace said on the may observations the euro shows a weak signal but until they both lose it completely I am going to keep a eye on it. First thing is to see if it indeed develops in the carribean because thats where it starts showing development.

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Post by Quietace Fri May 09, 2014 3:15 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Ohh I like t-storms, gimmi a good loud one like the one this morning but it was only one boom, but damn it it cause a impact lol.  Question the CMC is still showing a potential cyclone of some sort, even bastardi tweeted that it is model feedback probably, how long does model feedback usually happen for?  Its been about two days of runs with this storm showing.  Havent seen Euro yet but it was also hinting at some signs of a development.
Yes, still has the bias of rapidly developing the strength of the cyclone. The 12z Euro is much more logical in having tropical energy(the same the GEM is eyeing) phasing with energy swinging down the base of the trough. It then allows the main piece of energy to cut over the Appalachians and cut off over the GL.
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Because its a little sloppy, we get more of a dual low structure and it gives us some rain before the phase completes and the low cus off. Much more logical than driving a sub 1000mb into the South East coast. Will watch what happens over the next day. The spot of origin of the energy already changed with the 12z runs today, so will have to see if the 0z change the origin and evolution again.

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Post by Quietace Fri May 09, 2014 3:23 pm

This will most likely be a sub tropical heavy rain event IMO. No name storm etc. CMC is plain wrong and everyone freaking out about it on twitter needs to stop. lol

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Post by jmanley32 Fri May 09, 2014 7:49 pm

Whos freaking out about it on twitter? JB mentioned it (he always gets excited as we know, and he should know better), Maue did the right thing and said it was dead wrong and didnt post graphic. I think IMO it will be heavy rain and maybe strong wind event if it can form a low but no, no name, not fully tropical, if the CMC somehow verified however I would def have a new respect for it, however the outcome wouldn't be too great for the east coast.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri May 09, 2014 7:52 pm

So, even if its a heavy rain event that could be big trouble as that last rain still has rivers flowing good. We def don't need 2-5 inches+ of rain. But as you said and nice graphic BTW, Euro is more logical, the system is actually over PR right now, accuwx has a story on it already, and the hype has begun. LOL
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Post by Quietace Fri May 09, 2014 8:07 pm

If this long duration heavy rain threat continues to develop, the flooding potential will be major and dangerous. But this isnt a tropical threat so lets move discussion.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri May 09, 2014 8:30 pm

Oh ok I was going to ask that ace, where would you like me to move to long range or may obs?
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Post by jmanley32 Thu May 15, 2014 3:12 pm

Oh lordy here comes the hype....

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast-2014/26660844

To say such specific things is just not smart IMO, June and July may be active but to call numbers out and threats will just instill fear. Not to say we shouldnt be prepared but starting worrying when there is a storm to track.
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Post by sabamfa Fri May 16, 2014 10:19 am

Not sure if I should post this here or in the vacation thread as it's so far out. Can anyone give me their thoughts on hurricanes/severe weather for Fort Lauderdale like the last week of July? I'm planning on booking an 8 day stay but am slightly concerned.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri May 16, 2014 2:17 pm

There is NOOOO way to know anything in terms of precip that far away, let alone even a week out sorry. If anyone disagrees please feel free to correct me.
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Post by sabamfa Fri May 16, 2014 2:36 pm

I didn't mean for someone to say, "well, it'll rain a quarter of an inch on Tuesday July XX but watch out on Thursday!!!" I'm looking for thoughts on, historically, how are things in that general area of the country during that time period....are hurricanes common in FL around that time or is it usually later, are people thinking FL will be starting earlier this year/be busier this year, what are other meteorologists/weather boards saying.....any thoughts. I'm sorry if I wasn't more clear the first time. I'm just looking for a general rough idea for if it's usually particularly stormy during late July in FL or if anyone here would really be too concerned with having such a vacation.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu May 22, 2014 8:45 am

GFS has been hinting at the very end (384 hrs) of something tropical developing in the caribbean, until todays runs it has kept pushing out to 384 hrs each run. Today it now is starting at 288 and by 384 is a 995 mb low (or TS possibly) off east side of FL and appears to be moving north (coastal hugger? Way to far out but since its now jumped u by several days and the GFS has been hinting at this development for many days now I am going to keep a eye on it. Below is when it starts and the second is as far out as GFS goes (fantasyland as we call it on myfoxhurricane (a great chat site and tropical info site for anyone who doesn't know about it). I also heard GFS went through some upgrades that may be helping it predict that far out. We will have to watch and see.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu May 22, 2014 8:46 am

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 2 Gfs_ms12
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Post by algae888 Thu May 22, 2014 4:15 pm

good news! nws hurricane prediction center came out with their forecast for this season. they say only 8-13 named storms 3- 6 hurricanes and only 1-2 major hurricanes. if this pans out it will limit deaths and injuries plus economic loss from these devastating storms.
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Post by algae888 Thu May 22, 2014 6:29 pm

according to nws el nino is reason why we will have weak hurricane season. typically do not get many when we have an el nino.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu May 22, 2014 6:49 pm

True but the forecast is also calling for all close to land developments, which is not good odds for no landfalls. Look at latest GFS, and Mr. RM started the hype on twitter, I am surprised as usually he is more cautious than JB. Bad senario if it does happen.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu May 22, 2014 6:52 pm

And worse I do not see any fronts to stop this from going up the coast, of course it will change a million times and maybe not even be there, but the GFS has ben consistent past 3-5 days of developing something by the Ucitan penninsula and moving up to where it is shown in the above image. If it was the CMC i'd throw it out however the GFS as far as I heard went through some major upgrades so we will see. All we can do is be prepared, mother nature is going to bring whatever she brings us.
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Post by Quietace Thu May 22, 2014 7:30 pm

@algae888 wrote:good news! nws hurricane prediction center came out with their forecast for this season. they say only 8-13 named storms 3- 6 hurricanes and only 1-2 major hurricanes. if this pans out it will limit deaths and injuries plus economic loss from these devastating storms.
Only takes one system to cause massive deaths and injuries plus economic loss. Even in a slow season anything can happen. Example is the 92 Atlantic season.

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Post by Quietace Thu May 22, 2014 7:34 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:And worse I do not see any fronts to stop this from going up the coast, of course it will change a million times and maybe not even be there, but the GFS has ben consistent past 3-5 days of developing something by the Ucitan penninsula and moving up to where it is shown in the above image.  If it was the CMC i'd throw it out however the GFS as far as I heard went through some major upgrades so we will see.  All we can do is be prepared, mother nature is going to bring whatever she brings us.
300+ hour noise right now. Nothing to even be remotely worried about it IMO.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu May 22, 2014 7:49 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@algae888 wrote:good news! nws hurricane prediction center came out with their forecast for this season. they say only 8-13 named storms 3- 6 hurricanes and only 1-2 major hurricanes. if this pans out it will limit deaths and injuries plus economic loss from these devastating storms.
Only takes one system to cause massive deaths and injuries plus economic loss. Even in a slow season anything can happen. Example is the 92 Atlantic season.

Exactly. That was Andrew, right?

Anyway, although this will be a slow season, I think the east coast has to be watched. SST's in the GOM are below normal and I feel the upper pattern configuration this summer supports an east coast landfall, specifically from eastern Florida to North Carolina. Not so much our area.

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Post by Quietace Thu May 22, 2014 8:12 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@algae888 wrote:good news! nws hurricane prediction center came out with their forecast for this season. they say only 8-13 named storms 3- 6 hurricanes and only 1-2 major hurricanes. if this pans out it will limit deaths and injuries plus economic loss from these devastating storms.
Only takes one system to cause massive deaths and injuries plus economic loss. Even in a slow season anything can happen. Example is the 92 Atlantic season.

Exactly. That was Andrew, right?

Anyway, although this will be a slow season, I think the east coast has to be watched. SST's in the GOM are below normal and I feel the upper pattern configuration this summer supports an east coast landfall, specifically from eastern Florida to North Carolina. Not so much our area.
Right, 7 named storms total (10 depressions also) yet $26.502 billion in damage and 73 fatalities (almost all from Andrew).

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Post by jmanley32 Thu May 22, 2014 8:31 pm

Yeah Frank, but if it was a major, even by time it made it up here could still be a strong remnant or TS. I have seen landfalls in carolinas that hold weak hurricane up to the area. Will just have to see, and yes ace not worried, but my only thing was its not the cmc and its been showing something for quite some time. Now the GFS is taking it OTS so who knows. If in a week there is some signs of development then we can really start to watch was just pointing it out, also that its made it to twitter already, well that was quick.
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