NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Central Park totals worse than ever.

+30
NjWeatherGuy
Carter bk
Scullybutcher
crippo84
weatherwatchermom
Quietace
dad4twoboys
billg315
Snow88
dkodgis
essexcountypete
JoeBx82
Abba701
jbnyy224
Isotherm
skinsfan1177
kalleg
snowday111
algae888
SNOW MAN
Dunnzoo
GreyBeard
devsman
Dtone
docstox12
Math23x7
sroc4
amugs
Frank_Wx
CPcantmeasuresnow
34 posters

Page 12 of 12 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 10, 11, 12

Go down

Central Park totals worse than ever.  - Page 12 Empty Re: Central Park totals worse than ever.

Post by Dtone Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:18 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:8.4 inch final total at Central Park.

Sorry but I'm just not buying the 0.2 inches at Central Park after midnight.

There were observation of moderate snow after midnight and it snowed light to moderate for at least 4 more hours there so the chances that is right are near 0. Kind of like what they measured.

Obviously I cant say for sure, but the 0.2" additional measurement seems plausible. I was getting light to moderate snow for hours before I went to sleep and it didn't amount to much extra. Steady but non accumulating snow. I did see an additional coating this morning but that's it. Obs did show light snow through early morn hours but for me it didn't amount to more than a trace to few tenths of an inch of actual acclumation for me.

Dtone
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 1738
Join date : 2013-08-26

Back to top Go down

Central Park totals worse than ever.  - Page 12 Empty Re: Central Park totals worse than ever.

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:45 am

Dtone wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:8.4 inch final total at Central Park.

Sorry but I'm just not buying the 0.2 inches at Central Park after midnight.

There were observation of moderate snow after midnight and it snowed light to moderate for at least 4 more hours there so the chances that is right are near 0. Kind of like what they measured.

Obviously I cant say for sure, but the 0.2" additional measurement seems plausible. I was getting light to moderate snow for hours before I went to sleep and it didn't amount to much extra. Steady but non accumulating snow. I did see an additional coating this morning but that's it. Obs did show light snow through early morn hours but for me it didn't amount to more than a trace to few tenths of an inch of actual acclumation for me.

Tanks Dtone, maybe they got it right then.

CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7274
Join date : 2013-01-07

Back to top Go down

Central Park totals worse than ever.  - Page 12 Empty Re: Central Park totals worse than ever.

Post by Sparky Sparticles Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:40 pm

I saw the same as Dtone. Last night the next door neighbor was out there after 9pm with the snowblower and shovels doing the shared driveway and a few sidewalks and staircases. When I woke up and looked out the windows from my apartment at 4am they all looked like they were freshly shoveled, even though it was still snowing out there, and were just as clean when the snow ended around 7am.
Sparky Sparticles
Sparky Sparticles

Posts : 124
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2014-02-11
Age : 70
Location : Bayonne, NJ

Back to top Go down

Central Park totals worse than ever.  - Page 12 Empty Re: Central Park totals worse than ever.

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Apr 02, 2018 7:40 am

Here's the problem today as I see it for getting an accurate total from Central Park.

The Conservancy seems to take measurements at 7:00 or 8:00 am and doesn't take another one until 1PM. As soon as the snow lightens up compression and melting will begin and measurements will become inaccurate and low as each hour passes.
According to NWS guidelines (which I disagree with but that argument is for another day) you take the maximum depth for the day as the official total. The Conservancy most likely will never catch that moment, and another historic, for the time of year, snowfall will go unrecognized. I hope I'm wrong but I probably won't be.

CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7274
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

Central Park totals worse than ever.  - Page 12 Empty Re: Central Park totals worse than ever.

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Apr 02, 2018 8:18 am

4.8 inches so far in Central Park.

The big test will be do they get an accurate measurement before 1PM when the snow stops.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7274
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

Central Park totals worse than ever.  - Page 12 Empty Re: Central Park totals worse than ever.

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:50 am

Central Park 5.5 inches at 10 AM which I would guess will be their final total.

Probably close based on Mikes observations.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7274
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

Central Park totals worse than ever.  - Page 12 Empty Re: Central Park totals worse than ever.

Post by Math23x7 Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:58 am

I actually sent this to Upton before I saw the update:

I went to Central Park this morning and took this picture just after nine. This is by the Turtle pond (the Belvedere Castle is on the other side) and there were no tree branches above this ruler that I placed here. I saw that the Conservancy measured 4.8” as of 8 AM. Given the 0.46” of qpf through that time, the ratio is just over 10:1. Between 8 and 9, 0.08” of qpf was observed. Using the 10:1 ratio, it would be approximately 0.8” of snow. This ruler shows about 5.5” of snow, which is consistent with the qpf and the ratios. The next update from the Conservancy should include this new snow. Also, when I took this measurement, it was before I went onto your website to check the snow totals.

(I sent the image I posted in the other thread)

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2379
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

Central Park totals worse than ever.  - Page 12 Empty Re: Central Park totals worse than ever.

Post by Math23x7 Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:59 am

Also, I’m now at work so I can’t head back unfortunately

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2379
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

Central Park totals worse than ever.  - Page 12 Empty Re: Central Park totals worse than ever.

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:00 am

Math23x7 wrote:I actually sent this to Upton before I saw the update:

I went to Central Park this morning and took this picture just after nine.  This is by the Turtle pond (the Belvedere Castle is on the other side) and there were no tree branches above this ruler that I placed here.  I saw that the Conservancy measured 4.8” as of 8 AM.  Given the 0.46” of qpf through that time, the ratio is just over 10:1.  Between 8 and 9, 0.08” of qpf was observed.  Using the 10:1 ratio, it would be approximately 0.8” of snow.  This ruler shows about 5.5” of snow, which is consistent with the qpf and the ratios.  The next update from the Conservancy should include this new snow.  Also, when I took this measurement, it was before I went onto your website to check the snow totals.

(I sent the image I posted in the other thread)

Mike what do you think the 10Am should have been? Over 6?
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7274
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

Central Park totals worse than ever.  - Page 12 Empty Re: Central Park totals worse than ever.

Post by Math23x7 Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:04 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:I actually sent this to Upton before I saw the update:

I went to Central Park this morning and took this picture just after nine.  This is by the Turtle pond (the Belvedere Castle is on the other side) and there were no tree branches above this ruler that I placed here.  I saw that the Conservancy measured 4.8” as of 8 AM.  Given the 0.46” of qpf through that time, the ratio is just over 10:1.  Between 8 and 9, 0.08” of qpf was observed.  Using the 10:1 ratio, it would be approximately 0.8” of snow.  This ruler shows about 5.5” of snow, which is consistent with the qpf and the ratios.  The next update from the Conservancy should include this new snow.  Also, when I took this measurement, it was before I went onto your website to check the snow totals.

(I sent the image I posted in the other thread)

Mike what do you think the 10Am should have been? Over 6?

Given that the snow as tapering off and given that the sun angle was increasing and given that the other two nearby NWS stations (EWR, LGA) show similar numbers, I'd say the 5.5" appears to be reasonable.

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2379
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

Central Park totals worse than ever.  - Page 12 Empty Re: Central Park totals worse than ever.

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 17, 2024 9:55 pm

Will be resurrecting this thread again as per the urging of Math23X7.

Central Park has been horrible again this season and I've noticed it building again the last 3-4 years ever since The Conservancy stopped taking the measurements. Funny Mike brought this up today as I had just done an analysis of Tuesdays storm and found the LE at the Park of 4.2 to 1. The three surrounding stations EWR, JFK and LGA averaged 6.7.

Worse than ever I'm afraid.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Feb 17, 2024 10:13 pm; edited 1 time in total
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7274
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

billg315 likes this post

Back to top Go down

Central Park totals worse than ever.  - Page 12 Empty Re: Central Park totals worse than ever.

Post by Math23x7 Sat Feb 17, 2024 9:57 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Will be resurrecting this thread again as per the urging of Math23X7.

Central Park has been at their worst again this season and I've noticed it building the last 3-4 years again ever since The Conservancy stopped taking the measurements. Funny Mike brought this up today as I had just done an analysis of Tuesdays storm and found the LE at the Park of 4.2 to 1. The three surrounding stations EWR, JFK and LGA averaged 6.7.

Worse than ever I'm afraid.

Yup. Just change the title of this thread as it's not April 2, 2018 and I am not residing near CPK like I was back then. Razz

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2379
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

Central Park totals worse than ever.  - Page 12 Empty Re: Central Park totals worse than ever.

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 17, 2024 9:58 pm

Already did
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7274
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

docstox12 and Math23x7 like this post

Back to top Go down

Central Park totals worse than ever.  - Page 12 Empty Re: Central Park totals worse than ever.

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 18, 2024 9:20 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Will be resurrecting this thread again as per the urging of Math23X7.

Central Park has been horrible again this season and I've noticed it building again the last 3-4 years ever since The Conservancy stopped taking the measurements. Funny Mike brought this up today as I had just done an analysis of Tuesdays storm and found the LE at the Park of 4.2 to 1. The three surrounding stations EWR, JFK and LGA averaged 6.7.

Worse than ever I'm afraid.

We must protest

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21305
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 32
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

docstox12, CPcantmeasuresnow, Math23x7 and billg315 like this post

Back to top Go down

Central Park totals worse than ever.  - Page 12 Empty Re: Central Park totals worse than ever.

Post by sroc4 Sun Feb 18, 2024 9:35 am

49% joke, 51% serious

Central Park totals worse than ever.  - Page 12 ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia1.tenor.com%2Fimages%2F1fe6dde8e3b8d0d6dac9de18f5b51d33%2Ftenor

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8352
Reputation : 302
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

docstox12, CPcantmeasuresnow and billg315 like this post

Back to top Go down

Central Park totals worse than ever.  - Page 12 Empty Re: Central Park totals worse than ever.

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 19, 2024 10:33 am

Central Park has been worse than usual this year in measuring and here's some statistics just to prove the point.

Look at the LE of every 1 inch or above snowfall vs the closest nearby airports EWR and LGA. Central parks ratios are 50% lower because they keep measuring well after compression and melting is taking place.

Just compare the three calendar days in January and February that the closest reporting stations to Central Park have seen over an inch of snow and this is what you get.

Central Park 6.5 inches snow 1.23 inches liquid ratio 5.3

LGA           8.6 inches snow 1.19 inches liquid ratio 7.2

EWR          10.8 inches snow 1.15 inches liquid ratio 9.4

It's not a perfect science but if we're conservative and apply an 8.0 ratio to NYC, in between LGA and EWR ratios but closer to LGAs, their snowfall for those three days increases to 9.8 from 6.5 which from all accounts is much closer to what actually fell those calendar days. The 3.3 extra inches would make their seasonal total 10.8 right now which is actually in all likelihood their true total so far this season.

It's an old story and never seems to change. It's getting time for another e-mail writing campaign.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7274
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

billg315 likes this post

Back to top Go down

Central Park totals worse than ever.  - Page 12 Empty Re: Central Park totals worse than ever.

Post by Koroptim Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:15 pm

NYC is at half of their average with March left. Most of the northeast is over 50% of their average snowfall. While it has been a turd of a winter so far, it probably will end up being at least close to averages

Koroptim

Posts : 29
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-01-16

Back to top Go down

Central Park totals worse than ever.  - Page 12 Empty Re: Central Park totals worse than ever.

Post by phil155 Mon Feb 19, 2024 8:43 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Central Park has been worse than usual this year in measuring and here's some statistics just to prove the point.

Look at the LE of every 1 inch or above snowfall vs the closest nearby airports EWR and LGA. Central parks ratios are 50% lower because they keep measuring well after compression and melting is taking place.

Just compare the three calendar days in January and February that the closest reporting stations to Central Park have seen over an inch of snow and this is what you get.

Central Park 6.5 inches snow 1.23 inches liquid ratio 5.3

LGA           8.6 inches snow 1.19 inches liquid ratio 7.2

EWR          10.8 inches snow 1.15 inches liquid ratio 9.4

It's not a perfect science but if we're conservative and apply an 8.0 ratio to NYC, in between LGA and EWR ratios but closer to LGAs, their snowfall for those three days increases to 9.8 from 6.5 which from all accounts is much closer to what actually fell those calendar days. The 3.3 extra inches would make their seasonal total 10.8 right now which is actually in all likelihood their true total so far this season.

It's an old story and never seems to change. It's getting time for another e-mail writing campaign.

The last storm helped the totals here in Edison big time, we had 10.1 and are around 18-20 or so on the year. My apologies for not having an exact number

phil155
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 481
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2019-12-16

weatherwatchermom likes this post

Back to top Go down

Central Park totals worse than ever.  - Page 12 Empty Re: Central Park totals worse than ever.

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 20, 2024 12:03 am

Koroptim wrote:NYC is at half of their average with March left.  Most of the northeast is over 50% of their average snowfall.  While it has been a turd of a winter so far, it probably will end up being at least close to averages

NYC has recorded 7.5 inches so far and their seasonal average is 30, I'm not sure where you're getting the half from? With the way the pattern going forward looks and with the way they under measure every event I'm not even sure they record double digits this season even though I'm sure double digits has fallen in the Park.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7274
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

sroc4 and docstox12 like this post

Back to top Go down

Central Park totals worse than ever.  - Page 12 Empty Re: Central Park totals worse than ever.

Post by Koroptim Tue Feb 20, 2024 8:13 am

NYC average through Feb is 20 according to NOA, so almost have currently. And Eastern State PA just showed that Northeast snowfall is under average over 60% of the time. Highs and lows make averages

Koroptim

Posts : 29
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-01-16

Back to top Go down

Central Park totals worse than ever.  - Page 12 Empty Re: Central Park totals worse than ever.

Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 21, 2024 8:06 am

Koroptim wrote:NYC average through Feb is 20 according to NOA, so almost have currently.  And Eastern State PA just showed that Northeast snowfall is under average over 60% of the time.  Highs and lows make averages

Pretty close Central Park is 21.9 for 1990-2020 30 year average through February 20.

Central Park totals worse than ever.  - Page 12 Noaa10

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3906
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

Back to top Go down

Central Park totals worse than ever.  - Page 12 Empty Re: Central Park totals worse than ever.

Post by phil155 Wed Feb 21, 2024 9:01 am

I am just a bit sw of central park and I have probably close to 20 for the year, granted I was in that heavy band of snow over the weekend

phil155
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 481
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2019-12-16

Back to top Go down

Central Park totals worse than ever.  - Page 12 Empty Re: Central Park totals worse than ever.

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 12 of 12 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 10, 11, 12

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum