Central Park totals worse than ever.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:8.4 inch final total at Central Park.

Sorry but I'm just not buying the 0.2 inches at Central Park after midnight.

There were observation of moderate snow after midnight and it snowed light to moderate for at least 4 more hours there so the chances that is right are near 0. Kind of like what they measured.

Obviously I cant say for sure, but the 0.2" additional measurement seems plausible. I was getting light to moderate snow for hours before I went to sleep and it didn't amount to much extra. Steady but non accumulating snow. I did see an additional coating this morning but that's it. Obs did show light snow through early morn hours but for me it didn't amount to more than a trace to few tenths of an inch of actual acclumation for me.

Dtone wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:8.4 inch final total at Central Park.

Sorry but I'm just not buying the 0.2 inches at Central Park after midnight.

There were observation of moderate snow after midnight and it snowed light to moderate for at least 4 more hours there so the chances that is right are near 0. Kind of like what they measured.

Obviously I cant say for sure, but the 0.2" additional measurement seems plausible. I was getting light to moderate snow for hours before I went to sleep and it didn't amount to much extra. Steady but non accumulating snow. I did see an additional coating this morning but that's it. Obs did show light snow through early morn hours but for me it didn't amount to more than a trace to few tenths of an inch of actual acclumation for me.

Tanks Dtone, maybe they got it right then.

I saw the same as Dtone. Last night the next door neighbor was out there after 9pm with the snowblower and shovels doing the shared driveway and a few sidewalks and staircases. When I woke up and looked out the windows from my apartment at 4am they all looked like they were freshly shoveled, even though it was still snowing out there, and were just as clean when the snow ended around 7am.

Here's the problem today as I see it for getting an accurate total from Central Park.

The Conservancy seems to take measurements at 7:00 or 8:00 am and doesn't take another one until 1PM. As soon as the snow lightens up compression and melting will begin and measurements will become inaccurate and low as each hour passes.
According to NWS guidelines (which I disagree with but that argument is for another day) you take the maximum depth for the day as the official total. The Conservancy most likely will never catch that moment, and another historic, for the time of year, snowfall will go unrecognized. I hope I'm wrong but I probably won't be.

4.8 inches so far in Central Park.

The big test will be do they get an accurate measurement before 1PM when the snow stops.

Central Park 5.5 inches at 10 AM which I would guess will be their final total.

Probably close based on Mikes observations.

I actually sent this to Upton before I saw the update:

I went to Central Park this morning and took this picture just after nine. This is by the Turtle pond (the Belvedere Castle is on the other side) and there were no tree branches above this ruler that I placed here. I saw that the Conservancy measured 4.8” as of 8 AM. Given the 0.46” of qpf through that time, the ratio is just over 10:1. Between 8 and 9, 0.08” of qpf was observed. Using the 10:1 ratio, it would be approximately 0.8” of snow. This ruler shows about 5.5” of snow, which is consistent with the qpf and the ratios. The next update from the Conservancy should include this new snow. Also, when I took this measurement, it was before I went onto your website to check the snow totals.

(I sent the image I posted in the other thread)

Also, I’m now at work so I can’t head back unfortunately

Math23x7 wrote:I actually sent this to Upton before I saw the update:

I went to Central Park this morning and took this picture just after nine.  This is by the Turtle pond (the Belvedere Castle is on the other side) and there were no tree branches above this ruler that I placed here.  I saw that the Conservancy measured 4.8” as of 8 AM.  Given the 0.46” of qpf through that time, the ratio is just over 10:1.  Between 8 and 9, 0.08” of qpf was observed.  Using the 10:1 ratio, it would be approximately 0.8” of snow.  This ruler shows about 5.5” of snow, which is consistent with the qpf and the ratios.  The next update from the Conservancy should include this new snow.  Also, when I took this measurement, it was before I went onto your website to check the snow totals.

(I sent the image I posted in the other thread)

Mike what do you think the 10Am should have been? Over 6?

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Math23x7 wrote:I actually sent this to Upton before I saw the update:

I went to Central Park this morning and took this picture just after nine.  This is by the Turtle pond (the Belvedere Castle is on the other side) and there were no tree branches above this ruler that I placed here.  I saw that the Conservancy measured 4.8” as of 8 AM.  Given the 0.46” of qpf through that time, the ratio is just over 10:1.  Between 8 and 9, 0.08” of qpf was observed.  Using the 10:1 ratio, it would be approximately 0.8” of snow.  This ruler shows about 5.5” of snow, which is consistent with the qpf and the ratios.  The next update from the Conservancy should include this new snow.  Also, when I took this measurement, it was before I went onto your website to check the snow totals.

(I sent the image I posted in the other thread)

Mike what do you think the 10Am should have been? Over 6?

Given that the snow as tapering off and given that the sun angle was increasing and given that the other two nearby NWS stations (EWR, LGA) show similar numbers, I'd say the 5.5" appears to be reasonable.

Will be resurrecting this thread again as per the urging of Math23X7.

Central Park has been horrible again this season and I've noticed it building again the last 3-4 years ever since The Conservancy stopped taking the measurements. Funny Mike brought this up today as I had just done an analysis of Tuesdays storm and found the LE at the Park of 4.2 to 1. The three surrounding stations EWR, JFK and LGA averaged 6.7.

Worse than ever I'm afraid.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Will be resurrecting this thread again as per the urging of Math23X7.

Central Park has been at their worst again this season and I've noticed it building the last 3-4 years again ever since The Conservancy stopped taking the measurements. Funny Mike brought this up today as I had just done an analysis of Tuesdays storm and found the LE at the Park of 4.2 to 1. The three surrounding stations EWR, JFK and LGA averaged 6.7.

Worse than ever I'm afraid.

Yup. Just change the title of this thread as it's not April 2, 2018 and I am not residing near CPK like I was back then.

Already did

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Will be resurrecting this thread again as per the urging of Math23X7.

Central Park has been horrible again this season and I've noticed it building again the last 3-4 years ever since The Conservancy stopped taking the measurements. Funny Mike brought this up today as I had just done an analysis of Tuesdays storm and found the LE at the Park of 4.2 to 1. The three surrounding stations EWR, JFK and LGA averaged 6.7.

Worse than ever I'm afraid.

We must protest

Central Park has been worse than usual this year in measuring and here's some statistics just to prove the point.

Look at the LE of every 1 inch or above snowfall vs the closest nearby airports EWR and LGA. Central parks ratios are 50% lower because they keep measuring well after compression and melting is taking place.

Just compare the three calendar days in January and February that the closest reporting stations to Central Park have seen over an inch of snow and this is what you get.

Central Park 6.5 inches snow 1.23 inches liquid ratio 5.3

LGA           8.6 inches snow 1.19 inches liquid ratio 7.2

EWR          10.8 inches snow 1.15 inches liquid ratio 9.4

It's not a perfect science but if we're conservative and apply an 8.0 ratio to NYC, in between LGA and EWR ratios but closer to LGAs, their snowfall for those three days increases to 9.8 from 6.5 which from all accounts is much closer to what actually fell those calendar days. The 3.3 extra inches would make their seasonal total 10.8 right now which is actually in all likelihood their true total so far this season.

It's an old story and never seems to change. It's getting time for another e-mail writing campaign.

NYC is at half of their average with March left. Most of the northeast is over 50% of their average snowfall. While it has been a turd of a winter so far, it probably will end up being at least close to averages

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Central Park has been worse than usual this year in measuring and here's some statistics just to prove the point.

Look at the LE of every 1 inch or above snowfall vs the closest nearby airports EWR and LGA. Central parks ratios are 50% lower because they keep measuring well after compression and melting is taking place.

Just compare the three calendar days in January and February that the closest reporting stations to Central Park have seen over an inch of snow and this is what you get.

Central Park 6.5 inches snow 1.23 inches liquid ratio 5.3

LGA           8.6 inches snow 1.19 inches liquid ratio 7.2

EWR          10.8 inches snow 1.15 inches liquid ratio 9.4

It's not a perfect science but if we're conservative and apply an 8.0 ratio to NYC, in between LGA and EWR ratios but closer to LGAs, their snowfall for those three days increases to 9.8 from 6.5 which from all accounts is much closer to what actually fell those calendar days. The 3.3 extra inches would make their seasonal total 10.8 right now which is actually in all likelihood their true total so far this season.

It's an old story and never seems to change. It's getting time for another e-mail writing campaign.

The last storm helped the totals here in Edison big time, we had 10.1 and are around 18-20 or so on the year. My apologies for not having an exact number

Koroptim wrote:NYC is at half of their average with March left.  Most of the northeast is over 50% of their average snowfall.  While it has been a turd of a winter so far, it probably will end up being at least close to averages

NYC has recorded 7.5 inches so far and their seasonal average is 30, I'm not sure where you're getting the half from? With the way the pattern going forward looks and with the way they under measure every event I'm not even sure they record double digits this season even though I'm sure double digits has fallen in the Park.

NYC average through Feb is 20 according to NOA, so almost have currently. And Eastern State PA just showed that Northeast snowfall is under average over 60% of the time. Highs and lows make averages

Koroptim wrote:NYC average through Feb is 20 according to NOA, so almost have currently.  And Eastern State PA just showed that Northeast snowfall is under average over 60% of the time.  Highs and lows make averages

Pretty close Central Park is 21.9 for 1990-2020 30 year average through February 20.

I am just a bit sw of central park and I have probably close to 20 for the year, granted I was in that heavy band of snow over the weekend