Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:08 pm

00z RGEM (only model which has handled secondarily low correctly) now shows low exactly as is in Obs, yet still develops INVT over NYC metro. Hmmmm

by **algae888** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:08 pm

scott I agree on placement of invt. everyone the philly dc and snj area is done with snow once this band moves through. we get the squall line followed by the invt. exactly where that sets up is to be determined but mostly from sw conn to central jersey. cant wait to see what happens.

by **sroc4** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:09 pm

mancave25 wrote:Where do u guys think the ivt sets up

See the image I posted above Mancave.

Old Timer we aren't done yet

by mancave25 Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:12 pm

Do u think Sussex county gets into the invt

by **essexcountypete** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:13 pm

Looks crazy in SNJ atm, but NNJ looks to get a dusting and not much more unless I'm misreading it. Things are moving fast ots.

Please may I be wrong.

by **oldtimer** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:14 pm

Sroc I know It's not over till its over We are just reorganizing!

by **crippo84** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:16 pm

That squall line is starting to intensify as it moves east. The show will be starting soon.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:16 pm

The latest NAM lost the inverted trough AND the coastal low so not even NE gets additional snow.

If that comes to fruition I would just laugh.

by **Quietace** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:17 pm

Looking at how radar is progressing IMO, one could believe the HRRR may have some credit

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:19 pm

Ryan what's latest HRRR show?

Up in CP and Doc land, this may swing across into their area. This batch of precip should connect with the IVT

FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) - Page 19 Inxr1kbgma_h

FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) - Page 19 Inxr1kbgma_h

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:20 pm

Quietace wrote:Looking at how radar is progressing IMO, one could believe the HRRR may have some credit

What did the HRRR show Ace I forget.

by **GreyBeard** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:21 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The latest NAM lost the inverted trough AND the coastal low so not even NE gets additional snow.

If that comes to fruition I would just laugh.

So,are you saying no redevelopment off the coast then?

by **jmanley32** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:22 pm

algae888 wrote:scott I agree on placement of invt. everyone the philly dc and snj area is done with snow once this band moves through. we get the squall line followed by the invt. exactly where that sets up is to be determined but mostly from sw conn to central jersey. cant wait to see what happens.

That's for us Al! How long would a inverted trough last does it train or continue to pivot?

by **Quietace** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:24 pm

Those asking
FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) - Page 19 Hrrr_2015021500_ref_ne

by **sroc4** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:25 pm

Mathgod55 wrote:BUST

May be

by **algae888** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:26 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
algae888 wrote:scott I agree on placement of invt. everyone the philly dc and snj area is done with snow once this band moves through. we get the squall line followed by the invt. exactly where that sets up is to be determined but mostly from sw conn to central jersey. cant wait to see what happens.
That's for us Al! How long would a inverted trough last does it train or continue to pivot?

we will find out in the next few hours. wow people are jumping off cliffs on other weather boards

by **snow247** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:30 pm

looking like a non event for anyone north of manhattan

again

by **RJB8525** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:31 pm

25* cloudy, anything I have negative I'll keep to the banter thread

by toople Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:34 pm

I see snowflakes falling again but I don't see it on radar. Nutley, NJ

by **sroc4** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:35 pm

This is an absolutely crazy RH profile. Looks like a donut
FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) - Page 19 700mb_sf

by **WeatherBob** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:38 pm

This is gonna be a dud as far as snowfall amounts . The only thing is gonna be the trough axis coming thru with a nice 1 to 2 in squall and then the wind.

by **snow247** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:39 pm

22* quiet clear night here in the LHV after a few snow showers earlier in the day. Enjoy the snow NJ!

by **hyde345** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:39 pm

snow247 wrote:looking like a non event for anyone north of manhattan

again

I got my 2.5 inches this afternoon and I think I'm done here in dutchess county unfortunately.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:39 pm

algae888 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
algae888 wrote:scott I agree on placement of invt. everyone the philly dc and snj area is done with snow once this band moves through. we get the squall line followed by the invt. exactly where that sets up is to be determined but mostly from sw conn to central jersey. cant wait to see what happens.
That's for us Al! How long would a inverted trough last does it train or continue to pivot?
we will find out in the next few hours. wow people are jumping off cliffs on other weather boards

Yes they are. The bust potential with this was always high...but guidance as early as this afternoon still showed the IVT. And it was all overnight, like 2-5am.

We'll see in the morning.

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:40 pm

toople wrote:I see snowflakes falling again but I don't see it on radar. Nutley, NJ

Hi neighbor. I also noticed light snow just started up again. Hang in there the heavy stuff is starting to close in on us!

by **snow247** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:40 pm

hyde345 wrote:
snow247 wrote:looking like a non event for anyone north of manhattan

again

I got my 2.5 inches this afternoon and I think I'm done here in dutchess county unfortunately.

Yep, business as usual here tonight. It's just not our winter, everything is either south of east of us. I've only seen one slightly memorable storm this winter.

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:42 pm

After this first batch comes through will their be more if the primary low isn't done digging yet or is it

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