Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:13 pm

SREF probabilities

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 13 F12s66

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:17 pm

Not trying to hype this, but I think the SREFs are STILL under-modeling this QPF. Ladies and gents, I am truly beginning to believe, FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS WINTER, that we are about to witness some of the heaviest snows we have seen in quite a while for somebody. Where that it is, who knows right now. I think we continue to see these ticks northwest over the next few cycles until they level off by tomorrow night's 00z. I don't care what the models show, when you combine moisture originating NOT ONLY from the Gulf but from the PACIFIC, 60-70 knots of 180-degree FRONTOGENETICAL convergence, 180+ m/h jet located favorably AND a highly-amplified trough, this is a recipe for something spectacular. We are talking an average of 2.5-3.5 sigma precipitable water anomalies with this, and whoever ends up being in the jackpot, I'm telling you right now, is gonna see something awesome.

by **snow247** Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:17 pm

Haven't been this excited since the Saturday before Juno. This is only 2 days away.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:19 pm

SREFS in eye candy land, not quite in preferable range yet but man so pretty, would be happy if holds through tomorrow/wed but probably wont

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:19 pm

snow247 wrote:Haven't been this excited since the Saturday before Juno. This is only 2 days away.

can't blame ya, and this is a totally different setup and very complex with the possibilities of a crazy storm.

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:21 pm

has anyone looked...will there be wind with this storm as well?...just curious

by **mako460** Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:22 pm

WWMOM, are u somehow related to JMAN? Lol.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:22 pm

This trough is going to do crazy things, I feel. The way these mid and upper level winds are aligning looks very good for precip enhancement

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 13 GfsUS_500_spd_216

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 13 GfsUS_500_spd_216

700mb temps are crashing by Wednesday morning

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 13 GfsUS_700_temp_042

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:23 pm

mako460 wrote:WWMOM, are u somehow related to JMAN? Lol.

HA! No I do not believe there will be wind, I would have said something lol.

by **Math23x7** Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:24 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:This trough is going to do crazy things, I feel. The way these mid and upper level winds are aligning looks very good for precip enhancement

700mb temps are crashing by Wednesday morning

Frank, the first image is from March 11th. Is that what you intended?

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:26 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:has anyone looked...will there be wind with this storm as well?...just curious

Heres 925mb winds. Could see gusts near 40 mph Wednesday morning.

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 13 GfsNE_925_spd_036

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:27 pm

Math23x7 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:This trough is going to do crazy things, I feel. The way these mid and upper level winds are aligning looks very good for precip enhancement

700mb temps are crashing by Wednesday morning

Frank, the first image is from March 11th. Is that what you intended?

No, haha. That site on my tablet doesn't work well. Sorry

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:29 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:has anyone looked...will there be wind with this storm as well?...just curious

lol...no..just want to make sure I catch up on sleep before if there was....I end up with the kid and two dogs in the bed when it is really windy......husband gets to run to the quiet guest room and I get the party room...as a matter of fact I its a little windy tonight..I am expecting a visit in a little bit...

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:30 pm

OH MY F'ing WORD!!!!!! What the hell! The NAM!

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:30 pm

Here's what I meant to post. Dumb tablet

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 13 GfsNE_500_spd_054

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:31 pm

00z NAM may show a Godzilla.

by **snow247** Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:32 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:OH MY F'ing WORD!!!!!! What the hell! The NAM!

Didn't see it yet, I'm going to take a wild guess and say that it looks amazing for all of us?

(hint: please say yes)

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:32 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:00z NAM may show a Godzilla.

At hour 54 on wxbell, looks intense!

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:33 pm

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:35 pm

Pretty sure this storm is 'boutta drop a nuke on the Northeast lmfao look at the SREF MEAN:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PCNTOTNE_21z/f87.gif

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:36 pm

rb924119 wrote:Pretty sure this storm is 'boutta drop a nuke on the Northeast lmfao look at the SREF MEAN:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PCNTOTNE_21z/f87.gif

Wahooo! NAM shows all sleet for coastal areas, we need that 32 line to crash!

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:37 pm

Warmth hanging on in CNJ, probably sleet or mix for NYC and east, everyone else snow

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 13 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f60

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:37 pm

rb correct me if I am wrong but do some of those sref show friggin 3 feet?!

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:38 pm

Uhhh, hey Frank; I hope you aren't expecting any more posts from me if this verifies.......I'll be in orbit hahahahahaha

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:39 pm

Madonne...NEPA-southern NY...NW NJ buried..CT

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 13 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f63

2015-03-02

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:39 pm

jmanley32 wrote:rb correct me if I am wrong but do some of those sref show friggin 3 feet?!

Although HIGHLY unlikely; your eyes do not deceiveth lmfao

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:40 pm

rb924119 wrote:Uhhh, hey Frank; I hope you aren't expecting any more posts from me if this verifies.......I'll be in orbit hahahahahaha

I say we go to you, CP, or Docs house and drink cold ones

by Sponsored content