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Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:09 pm

Al means business haha, love it

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:12 pm

And he is probably right! Bring it! I just hope I get home from school Wed night before it starts ripping, assuming it happens
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:13 pm

The NAM ptype map shows as the huge strip moves slowly to the SE a large swatch of sleet before going to snow for coastal areas but by end (assuming it continues the way it was after hour 84, looks like everyone is buried.
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Post by rb924119 Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:15 pm

I am 0/2 so far this season on SWFE.......I'LL BELIEVE IT WHEN I SEE IT :p

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Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:18 pm

That moisture jet streak means business. Hopefully our NAO can trend neutral by then, which would assure the trough to go neutral. If that happens we go boom!
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:21 pm

@rb924119 wrote:I am 0/2 so far this season on SWFE.......I'LL BELIEVE IT WHEN I SEE IT :p

This is a different type of SWFE. Stalled front along east coast...potent mid-level trough dropping in from Canada containing intense PvA...I think you have better odds this go round

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Post by rb924119 Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:21 pm

For what it's worth, here's the 00z NAM clown map:

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=DIX

I can dream, can't I? lmao

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:22 pm

And thats not even close to finished I believe, not for coast anyways.
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Post by rb924119 Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:26 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:I am 0/2 so far this season on SWFE.......I'LL BELIEVE IT WHEN I SEE IT :p

This is a different type of SWFE. Stalled front along east coast...potent mid-level trough dropping in from Canada containing intense PvA...I think you have better odds this go round

You would know better than I, Frank. I haven't spent any time looking at it, and to be honest, I most likely won't be able to :/

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Post by rb924119 Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:31 pm

I read your writeup, by the way, and it was really good. The only thing that I don't agree with is the PVA that I think you mean. If you notice, there doesn't seem to be any ABSOLUTE GEOSTROPHIC vorticity advection from H5, since it is only a very intense strip of unidirectional shear vorticity, so it is essentially training over itself. HOWEVER, I WOULD AGREE that there is EXTREME RELATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION that is stemming from the highly-amplified trough itself. I think that is a very large factor in this setup as it looks right now, because that is allowing a lot of background ascent all on its own. Do you see what I mean? Not trying to be a jerk at all, just offering my opinion...

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Post by rb924119 Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:36 pm

I will also add that if the 00z NAM were to verify in its general synoptic setup, somebody could be measuring in yardsticks. If you look at H7/H8/H9, the moisture transport from the Gulf is redonkulous....there is between 25-60 knots of convergent flow at H8 and between 45-70 knots of convergent flow at H7. That would be a SCREAMING low-level jet.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:38 pm

I like when rb talks dirty

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Post by rb924119 Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:38 pm

You add that to a highly-frontogenetic region downstream of a highly-amplified late-season trough, all of which is embedded in solidly unidirectional flow, that is a recipe for heavy training precipitation if I've ever seen one.

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Post by snow247 Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:39 pm

Rb, you really know your stuff. Wow.
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Post by rb924119 Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:40 pm

It could also be a good setup for our first Spring-time severe weather outbreak in the form of a decent squall-line across the (Mid-) South.

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Post by sroc4 Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:40 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:I like when rb talks dirty

LMFAO..I was thinking the same thing Frank. Rb you rock dude. You add so much to this board. You give me stuff to learn and look up all the time. Thank you

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Post by Joe Snow Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:41 pm

@rb924119 wrote:You add that to a highly-frontogenetic region downstream of a highly-amplified late-season trough, all of which is embedded in solidly unidirectional flow, that is a recipe for heavy training precipitation if I've ever seen one.


Weather Porn................... affraid
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Post by RJB8525 Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:42 pm

@Joe Snow wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:You add that to a highly-frontogenetic region downstream of a highly-amplified late-season trough, all of which is embedded in solidly unidirectional flow, that is a recipe for heavy training precipitation if I've ever seen one.

\
Weather Porn................... affraid

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:44 pm

Yardsticks, omg now I am not gonna sleep for 3 days lol, rb I so hope you are right and this is huge for everyone, who favors the most here or is everyone in fairly equal play?
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:44 pm

@rb924119 wrote:I will also add that if the 00z NAM were to verify in its general synoptic setup, somebody could be measuring in yardsticks. If you look at H7/H8/H9, the moisture transport from the Gulf is redonkulous....there is between 25-60 knots of convergent flow at H8 and between 45-70 knots of convergent flow at H7. That would be a SCREAMING low-level jet.

Dammit, now I'll never get to sleep tonight. Thanks for nothing RB. JK Very Happy
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Post by rb924119 Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:44 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:I like when rb talks dirty

Literally just lol'ed hahaha

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:46 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Yardsticks, omg now I am not gonna sleep for 3 days lol, rb I so hope you are right and this is huge for everyone, who favors the most here or is everyone in fairly equal play?

Oh Geez now Jman and I are having the same thoughts at the same time. Not a good sign, one or both of us is posting way to much.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:47 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:I like when rb talks dirty

LMFAO..I was thinking the same thing Frank.  Rb you rock dude.  You add so much to this board.  You give me stuff to learn and look up all the time.  Thank you

Wait until you read the case study he did on the 21st storm. Will post tomorrow. Also, you deserve kudos (not just for your dance) but in the 1st or 2nd page of this thread I have you props for recognizing this potential last week.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:48 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Yardsticks, omg now I am not gonna sleep for 3 days lol, rb I so hope you are right and this is huge for everyone, who favors the most here or is everyone in fairly equal play?

Oh Geez now Jman and I are having the same thoughts at the same time. Not a good sign, one or both of us is posting way to much.

Hahaha

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:48 pm

LOL CP, yeah been a lazy on the computer day for me. I'll sleep we gotta so we can be up for this bad boy (hoping anyways)!
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