Long Range Thread 8.0

[Frank_Wx]

Here is a report from BBC. I'll have my own thoughts and summer outlook around the 28th of May.

'Substantial' El Nino event predicted http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-32704506

[Dtone]

I been hearing rumblings about this lately.
Could translate into a mild snow less winter? i.e. 1998

[amugs]

I been hearing rumblings about this lately.
Could translate into a mild snow less winter? i.e. 1998

Not necessarily, there is a lot of other variable that come into play one important factor being high latitude blocking ie 2009-10 with a moderate nino. Of course you have 1997-98 on the other end with no blocking and there was practically no winter.We will know more by late summer.
Also, A "substantial" El NIno was predicted last year at this time, as well and here we are.
Interesting but needs to be monitored of course.

[jmanley32]

I will believe it when it happens, as last year the "super-nino" never transpired. On another note can the weather get anymore beautiful but boring? LOL

[jmanley32]

I know its a long ways off but the CMC seems to be showing a pretty potent rain system (LP?) around 24th, Frank anything to this? Reason I ask is we are having a 35-45 person outdoor party with nowhere to move it indoors.

[Frank_Wx]

I know its a long ways off but the CMC seems to be showing a pretty potent rain system (LP?) around 24th, Frank anything to this?  Reason I ask is we are having a 35-45 person outdoor party with nowhere to move it indoors.

Looks like there is a good chance for a substantial rain event between the 23rd-27th. Hopefully it comes after the 24th (I am having my grad party that day). I'll keep an eye out

[jmanley32]

I know its a long ways off but the CMC seems to be showing a pretty potent rain system (LP?) around 24th, Frank anything to this?  Reason I ask is we are having a 35-45 person outdoor party with nowhere to move it indoors.

Looks like there is a good chance for a substantial rain event between the 23rd-27th. Hopefully it comes after the 24th (I am having my grad party that day). I'll keep an eye out

Same day frank, daughters 2nd b-day party. Her b-day was April 30th, but this was the weekend we could get everyone together. Models today seemed to move it back a lot.

[Math23x7]

I know its a long ways off but the CMC seems to be showing a pretty potent rain system (LP?) around 24th, Frank anything to this?  Reason I ask is we are having a 35-45 person outdoor party with nowhere to move it indoors.

Looks like there is a good chance for a substantial rain event between the 23rd-27th. Hopefully it comes after the 24th (I am having my grad party that day). I'll keep an eye out

The 24th? Then that means you have a double celebration, your graduation AND your birthday! 

[weatherwatchermom]

We Made It...It rained on us just as we were getting in the car!! what a fun morning!!

[weatherwatchermom]

oops posted in wrong spot..dont know how to move

[Frank_Wx]

Heat wave possible next week with temps in the 90's....

Oh boy

Personally, I think the EURO is overdone. Maybe high 80's with a day or 2 of low 90's

[Dtone]

In terms of warmest May's where would we rank after ending the month on a stretch of mid 80s - low 90s. It's been warm as it is now.

[Frank_Wx]

BOOOOORRRRRRRRRRRRIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIINNNNNNNNNNNNGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG

Holy crap.

[Dunnzoo]

Looks like a storm hits the Carolinas late next week, we could get some decent rain from it if it holds....

[jmanley32]

I was just posting this in tropics, moderate hurricane if CMC is right, minor event if GFS is right.

[jmanley32]

Anyone know what Euro has been showing? I no longer subscribe to any sites so I miss seeing the Euro.

[skinsfan1177]

I'm going to wildwood Friday to Sunday for the Elks convention. What does it look like for this weekend ?

[jmanley32]

Looks like some rainy days coming in the later of the 7-10 day, CMC has 2-4 inches over next 10 days and GFS has about 2-3. So I wouldn't say that's too dry IF that holds, looks close for your get together, I hope the rain misses you guys.

[Frank_Wx]

It will be interesting to see the progression of the PDO and ENSO over the next few months leading into winter. Over the last couple of months, the mean PDO index value has dropped from +2.45 in January to +1.20 in May. It's not very often we see a sudden turn around in phases with the PDO. Usually it comes in long cycles, often 5-10 years. The last time the PDO was in such a short warm phase was 2010. January-May of 2010 the PDO was solidly positive before rapidly dropping negative in the summer and fall. We then stayed negative all the way until January 2014. Since January 2014, we have been in a positive PDO phase.

Historically, this is what SST anomalies look like during a positive PDO cycle. Above normal SST's off the west cost into the GOA with a +ENSO. There is a cool tongue along 40N in the NW Pacific.

Where our SST anomalies stand now suggest we're still in a +PDO cycle, but one can see why we've seen a drop off in its index over the last 2 months. An area of below normal SST's has developed off the coast of Washington and Oregon. Whether or not this is temporary or expands into the central Pacific remains to be seen. Given ONI's in the ENSO region continue to rise I would think the +PDO is in no hurry to leave and the small area of -SST's is temporary.  If the +ENSO comes on strong like most deterministic models are portraying, it will be interesting to see how the NAO reacts come fall and winter. The stubbornness of the NAO to stay mainly positive during the last couple of winters has been a mystery to some. The Stratosphere and QBO may have been the reason why. But now that we have the ENSO on our side, we could see the NAO finally venture back to negative territory over an extended period of time. The times the NAO has gone negative these last couple of years, it was usually a weak signal or centered over Scandinavia. I think we're due to seeing the -NAO return over Greenland and areas west of there.

Meteorological summer is only a few weeks in, but extreme heat lovers cannot be happy with how its gone. So far, there has been no 90 degree days for Central Park, NY. We came close on June 11th when we recorded 89 degrees. Looking ahead, we do not appear imminent to seeing a 90-degree day, let alone a heat wave (constitutes of 3 or more consecutive 90 degree days).

Next week the SE Ridge tries to flex into the northeast, but the one constant all summer long has been the trough over SE Canada preventing the ridge from overcoming our area. 588ddm heights have been hard pressed to get into the NYC Metro area, though areas south along the Jersey shore and SNJ have seen some 90-degree days already.

And it does not look any warmer come July. In fact, it could get cooler. The GFS is showing a series of low pressure systems cutting off around the Great Lakes / Northeast regions in early July which would lead to solidly below normal temps. The -EPO and pesky SE Canadian trough have helped keep the northeast mainly below normal so far this summer, while the Mid-Atlantic has been seeing plenty of the warmth.

Analog of choice for this winter was 1957. July 1957 turned out to be pretty cool over the eastern U.S. From what I'm seeing with the EPO and how the upper air pattern has played out so far, I would not be surprised to see this come to fruition.

And in case you are wondering, yes, I am at work but am extremely bored on this summer Friday where seemingly everyone and their mother took the day off. Lesson learned...

Have a great weekend and Happy Father's Day to those who fit the bill.

[Dtone]

I noticed there's been lots of warm/hot air just south & west of NYC. I was wondering if this is going to be a persistent setup throughout the summer. It appears so. Extreme heat sucks but I'd like some bouts of moderate heat for swimming/beach purposes.

90 degree days so far

DC 15
Baltimore 6
Philly 5
Trenton 5
Atlantic City 3
Newark 3
CPK 0
LGA 1

We barely escaped so far.

[skinsfan1177]

Great write up as usual frank

[amugs]

Great write ip Frank and I concur on that cool tongue of sst off or and wash, it most likely won't last. As for the NAO, that stubborn mule needs and god kickboxing the arse come December!!
Dt humidity yes but hot temps ain't happening this summer with that trough hanging out over se canada. Convective storms yes, di not a prolonged pattern of great beach weather for the next few weeks in the set up, a good couple days but storms to go along with this. 8 think we see a lot of t-storms this summer season, above normal is what I am going with.
@Frank - extremely informative write up!! Kid once you get the know of the land on Mars you will be just fine with banging out a Friday or two. It comes with experience my man.

[Frank_Wx]

I noticed there's been lots of warm/hot air just south & west  of NYC. I was wondering if this is going to be a persistent setup throughout the summer.  It appears so. Extreme heat sucks but I'd like some bouts of moderate heat for swimming/beach purposes.

90 degree days so far

DC 15
Baltimore  6
Philly 5
Trenton 5
Atlantic City 3
Newark 3
CPK 0
LGA 1

We barely escaped so far.

The trough in SE Canada has prevented NYC Metro from getting under a true SW flow. We've been stuck between the trough and ridge which keeps winds either from the north or west.

[Frank_Wx]

@Skins and Mugs - thanks!!

[Math23x7]

There is an outside shot of CPK hitting 90 early next week. But if it doesn't, could this, in the 146+ years of weather records there, be the first year with NO 90 degree day? If you look back at 2004, there were only two 90 degree days, one on June 9th where it hit 91 and one on August 28th where it hit 90. May 1996 had two 90 degree days but there was only ONE that summer. In 2000 there were six 90 degree days in May and early June but only one the rest of the year. And in 2009 and 2014, the highest temperature was 92. So it'll be interesting to see how it turns out

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