Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

[HectorO]

soooo no one knows how to posts pictures here? The insert image makes you put a URL in.

[Dunnzoo]

soooo no one knows how to posts pictures here? The insert image makes you put a URL in.

Sorry Hector, been busy, but click on the 1st image in the 5th grey box, it will ask for image, upload image from computer and hit "host it". A few choices will pop up, copy "image" link, then click on the text box where you want to add it and then hit "paste". I think I remember it in the right order! Looking forward to some midwest pics!

[Frank_Wx]

Hey Frank.  Can you post the link to the reanalysis/analogue site we were looking at at the get together?  I cant find it anywhere.    

Here you go Scott. I need to put together a tutorial. 


http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/getpage.pl

[amugs]

Models still have this only 14 days away still: HAHAHAHA

[Snow88]

Sunset this evening in Staten Island

[sroc4]

Hey Frank.  Can you post the link to the reanalysis/analogue site we were looking at at the get together?  I cant find it anywhere.    

Here you go Scott. I need to put together a tutorial. 


http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/getpage.pl

Thanks Frank

[HectorO]

Not working for me... the whole picture thing. Does this site have a facebook page? It would be cool to make one.

[HectorO]

Found it never mind lol

[jmanley32]

Like Al stated in LR Euro shows a very strong coastal at the end ofits run verbatim snowfall ( though these maps tend to include not just snow, not sure if Mr. Maue fixed this or not but dayumm if this verified (I have no idea if the feasibly possible right now, way to far out.

[Dtone]

Sunset this evening in Staten Island

That sunset was amazing. Stopped ppl in there tracks. Looks like fire..or at times a strong purple hue.
Memorable sunset.

[Snow88]

0z Euro Control still shows a 990 low near the benchmark for Dec 1. A lot of snow for the coast lol.

[Frank_Wx]

0z Euro Control still shows a 990 low near the benchmark for Dec 1.  A lot of snow for the coast lol.

Oh madonne.

Really not feeling the 1st still.

Though the 5th I have to look into some more....

[amugs]

0z Euro Control still shows a 990 low near the benchmark for Dec 1.  A lot of snow for the coast lol.

i know Tony I saw that too, the Atlantic is too dam warm for such at this point especially for the coast - inland areas may see the white gold, elevations yes - SNOW, CP, DOC, Rb.
One thing for sure is that we are seeing coastals in the pipeline here peeps, step down process starting - with good timing we could see a 1957 ala storm before/around xmass and then around the New year/just after we get going IMO.

[jmanley32]

0z Euro Control still shows a 990 low near the benchmark for Dec 1.  A lot of snow for the coast lol.

Oh madonne.

Really not feeling the 1st still.

Though the 5th I have to look into some more....

The 5th looks impressive but that's too far out, This year I am playing it cool until we are within at least 7 days, though GFS is exciting looking.

[amugs]

This is what I am calling - Rb calling for Dec20 change I am calling for this bad boy!!!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Like Al stated in LR Euro shows a very strong coastal at the end ofits run verbatim snowfall ( though these maps tend to include not just snow, not sure if Mr. Maue fixed this or not but dayumm if this verified (I have no idea if the feasibly possible right now, way to far out.

I know the chances of this unfolding as show above are very slim but it's nice to see.

[amugs]

Any snow in this Dec pattern is a plus. What I like is that we are seeing these storms (coastals) forming by the models IMO. We do not have the polar/arctic flow YET and when Holiday time or just after I think we start to see what most are calling/talking about. There looks to be only transient arctic intrusions of cold air east of the Rockies for the next month as the 500mb forecasts turn semi-zonal. We may have to wait until early Jan before the weakening +ENSO signal allows the positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation to work its magic and enable more and greater cases of blocking in AK into western and northern Canada. Be patient and it will come.

[nutleyblizzard]

Any snow in this Dec pattern is a plus. What I like is that we are seeing these storms (coastals) forming by the models IMO. We do not have the polar/arctic flow YET and when Holiday time or just after I think we start to see what most are calling/talking about.   There looks to be only transient arctic intrusions of cold air east of the Rockies for the next month as the 500mb forecasts turn semi-zonal.  We may have to wait until early Jan before the weakening +ENSO signal allows the positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation to work its magic and enable more and greater cases of blocking in AK into western and northern Canada. Be patient and it will come.

I would like to see at least a moderate event in December just so we can get on the scoreboard. If it happens it would most likely be in the latter stages of the month. Everyone get your sleep now cause I'm thinking we see the pattern flip by New Years. Once that occurs there will be plenty of storms and rumors of storms to track. Hope we can get a -NAO established to make this a truly memorable winter.

[amugs]

From the great Unc W:
10" snowfalls for el nino years...
snowfalls 10" or greater......
Year....date....amount"...

1897...1/27-28....10.0"

1905...1/24-25.....11.0"

1914...3/1-2.........14.5"

1915...4/1-2.........10.2"

1920...2/4-7.........17.5"

1926...2/3-4.........10.4"
1926...2/9-10.......12.0"

1941...3/7-8.........18.1"

1958...3/19-20.....11.8"

1964...1/12-13.....12.5"

1969...2/9-10.......15.3"

1978...1/19-20.....13.6"
1978...2/6-7.........17.7"

1983...2/11-12.....17.6"

1993...3/13-14.....10.6"

1995...2/4............10.8"

2003...2/16-17.....19.8"

2003...12/5-6.......14.0"
2004...1/28..........10.4"

2005...1/22-23.....13.8"

2009...12/19-20...10.9"
2010...2/9-10.......10.0"
2010...2/25-26.....20.9"

[amugs]

Cont..........

A number of El Nino winters can start out mild in December and feature a change to colder
and or snowier after January 15th. Some El Ninos have colder or snowier
conditions from December into January. Several El Nino winters didn't exhibit this pattern
after January 15th. I highlighted the most pronounced late El Nino winters for NYC
going back to 1958.

Temperature departures and snow

1958....February..............-5.1....10.7"
1958....March..................-0.7....15.9"

1964....February..............-0.5....14.1"

1966....January 20-30.......-5.2....11.6"
1966....February..............+1.7....9.8"

1969....February..............-0.8....16.6".....9-10....15.3"
1969....March..................-0.4.....5.6"

1978...January 19-31.......-4.9....13.6" 19-20
1978...February...............-6.2....23.0" 6-7...17.4"

1983...February 6-13........-5.7....21.5"..11-12..17.6"...One amazing week of winter for whole season

1987...January 18-31.......-4.4....13.1"...22..8.1"
1987...February...............-0.2....7.0"

1995...February...............-2.0...11.6"...14...10.8"

2003...January 15-31........-9.1....3.1"
2003...February................-4.5....26.1"...PD 2 19.8"

2005...January 16-31.......-10.6...15.3"...22-23..13.8"
2005...February ...............+2.0....15.8"
2005...March....................-3.0.....6.9"

2007...February................-6.3.....3.8"
2007...March....................-0.3....6.0"

2010...February................-1.4....36.9"

2015...January 24-31........-4.5....14.4"....26-27...9.8"
2015...February................-11.4...13.6"
2015...March.....................-4.4.....18.6"

[billg315]

Interesting that models show a significant coastal storm around December 5. It's far off, and even if it hits it could be more rain than snow, but anytime I hear of a storm threat around Dec. 5 it captures my attention. There is something about that date:

On Dec. 5, 2002 a snowstorm blanketed much of New Jersey with 5-10" of snow;
On Dec. 5, 2003 a snowstorm dumped anywhere from 4" to 16" of snow (heaviest amounts from I-195 north). (I was in a wedding that day and had to drive through the storm to the church. I had mistakenly told the bride and groom several months before not to worry about snow because the odds of back-to-back Dec. 5 storms was slim. Oops);
On Dec. 5, 2005 New Jersey got generally 2-6" of snow (heaviest snow was south of I-195 and toward the coast);
On Dec. 5, 2009 New Jersey got generally 1-8" of snow (heaviest amounts north of I-78, especially Sussex County);
2013 was close to the magic dates. Storms on Dec. 8 and 10 combined to bring several inches of snow across the state (but to count that would be cheating);

Moral of the story? Beware of the 5th day of December.

[billg315]

Some of those storms may have started or ended on the 4th or 6th, but you get the point.

[Frank_Wx]

Interesting that models show a significant coastal storm around December 5. It's far off, and even if it hits it could be more rain than snow, but anytime I hear of a storm threat around Dec. 5 it captures my attention. There is something about that date:

On Dec. 5, 2002 a snowstorm blanketed much of New Jersey with 5-10" of snow;
On Dec. 5, 2003 a snowstorm dumped anywhere from 4" to 16" of snow (heaviest amounts from I-195 north). (I was in a wedding that day and had to drive through the storm to the church. I had mistakenly told the bride and groom several months before not to worry about snow because the odds of back-to-back Dec. 5 storms was slim. Oops);
On Dec. 5, 2005 New Jersey got generally 2-6" of snow (heaviest snow was south of I-195 and toward the coast);
On Dec. 5, 2009 New Jersey got generally 1-8" of snow (heaviest amounts north of I-78, especially Sussex County);
2013 was close to the magic dates. Storms on Dec. 8 and 10 combined to bring several inches of snow across the state (but to count that would be cheating);

Moral of the story? Beware of the 5th day of December.

It really is incredible if you think about it. One has to think if maybe the changing seasons play a part. The sun is most active during these times. There was a huge Solar storm not too long ago. Also, recurving typhoons this time of year could play a role.

[billg315]

Interesting that models show a significant coastal storm around December 5. It's far off, and even if it hits it could be more rain than snow, but anytime I hear of a storm threat around Dec. 5 it captures my attention. There is something about that date:

On Dec. 5, 2002 a snowstorm blanketed much of New Jersey with 5-10" of snow;
On Dec. 5, 2003 a snowstorm dumped anywhere from 4" to 16" of snow (heaviest amounts from I-195 north). (I was in a wedding that day and had to drive through the storm to the church. I had mistakenly told the bride and groom several months before not to worry about snow because the odds of back-to-back Dec. 5 storms was slim. Oops);
On Dec. 5, 2005 New Jersey got generally 2-6" of snow (heaviest snow was south of I-195 and toward the coast);
On Dec. 5, 2009 New Jersey got generally 1-8" of snow (heaviest amounts north of I-78, especially Sussex County);
2013 was close to the magic dates. Storms on Dec. 8 and 10 combined to bring several inches of snow across the state (but to count that would be cheating);

Moral of the story? Beware of the 5th day of December.

It really is incredible if you think about it. One has to think if maybe the changing seasons play a part. The sun is most active during these times. There was a huge Solar storm not too long ago. Also, recurving typhoons this time of year could play a role.

Typhoon In-fa just recurved, so if there is anything to the recurving typhoon theory, eastern U.S. trough around . . . around December 1-5.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The December 5th 2003 storm was even more significant than most seem to remember. The heaviest accumulations were not all north and west of I95. NYC as measured in Central Park saw 14.0 inches from that storm, pretty significant for a late autumn storm.  In Orange County it was a general 12-18 inches.

[Snow88]

The Dec 5 storm was a 2 part storm. First part I got 6 inches and then the next day I got 8 inches. Winter Storm Warning on the 1st day and Blizzard Warning on the 2nd day.

[Frank_Wx]

The Dec 5 storm was a 2 part storm. First part I got 6 inches and then the next day I got 8 inches. Winter Storm Warning on the 1st day and Blizzard Warning on the 2nd day.

Sounded awesome. Wish I remembered it

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