Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Dec 01, 2015 5:26 pm

If people dont see signs of winter in December, they jump ship, and it is beginning to become a bit concerning, we were all talking about the stregnth of the El Nino and how it could either benefit us if it weakens or really give us a screw job if it remains strong. Now it hasnt shown the sign of weakening I would have hoped to see yet and Im beginning to think back to 09-10 how a milder Nino got started off fairly snowy and beginning to think we may be too strong here and may torch over like 97 even though the pattern is different due to the stregnth of the Nino. At least, that is what were seeing now IMO, an eastern ridge not going anywhere meanwhile the west gets dumped on by below normal temps and snow. We need to have this damn El Nino weaken, and it needs to start happening quickly because were starting to burn up winter time... Rant over.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Dec 01, 2015 5:28 pm

This is not what I was expecting to happen and not helping us out in any way.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/el-nio-of-2015-hits-alltime-record-strength-for-a-1week-period

by **amugs** Tue Dec 01, 2015 5:32 pm

Check this site out for the snow growth since October 1

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snow-cover/us/20151001-20151130

by **sroc4** Tue Dec 01, 2015 6:16 pm

Tom you can rant all you want about how it's over. I will gladly buy your winter stock for pennies. It's Dec 1st my friend. Keep in mind it's not Feb first. Do you recal how much snow fell from Jan 21st - March 31st last year? More than twice the avg. Do you think the pattern can change in the next 51 days? The way I see it if we get any accumulating snow in the next 51 days that's gravy. Is what you say possible? Of course. But talk to me again in 2 months.

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Dec 01, 2015 6:21 pm

Many are chomping at the bit to cancel winter for snow lovers. I say no way from my experience we get the goods usually J,F,M last year March was the month for most snow for my area lol

by **sroc4** Tue Dec 01, 2015 6:22 pm

by **amugs** Tue Dec 01, 2015 7:25 pm

sroc4 wrote:

NICE!! HELP YOU I WILL!

by **billg315** Tue Dec 01, 2015 8:32 pm

Way too early to make any assumptions about how this winter will turn out. January and February (and actually sometimes March) tend to be when we get our biggest snowstorms and harshest cold snaps. I do think what we've seen so far is consistent with a strong El Nino and its now clear this winter will not be an early starter (as many predicted anyway). But too soon to write off the entire winter. Another thing to note is even in winters where you have fewer overall snow events you can still get walloped with one really big storm (See Feb. 1983).

by **HectorO** Tue Dec 01, 2015 9:18 pm

sroc4 wrote:Tom you can rant all you want about how it's over. I will gladly buy your winter stock for pennies. It's Dec 1st my friend. Keep in mind it's not Feb first. Do you recal how much snow fell from Jan 21st - March 31st last year? More than twice the avg. Do you think the pattern can change in the next 51 days? The way I see it if we get any accumulating snow in the next 51 days that's gravy. Is what you say possible? Of course. But talk to me again in 2 months.

The problem isn't Dec 1st or not. Today's technology we're able to find out if in an entire month we're going to see a pattern change or not and if no patter change is present we can write off the month in it's early stages. In late November we were already talking about the first 2 weeks of December being warmer. Two weeks of a month that hadn't even started yet already down the drain. Today's technology takes away the element of surprise lol. Most of us area already looking to January, and by late December we'll know if January's first week or two can be written off too.

by **Math23x7** Tue Dec 01, 2015 9:22 pm

"nO coLD Or sNOw tHRouGh deCeMBeR 15tH."

Had we still been on the old 7-online chat board, we would hear that right around now.

by **sroc4** Tue Dec 01, 2015 9:23 pm

You may write off December, but I sure as heck ain't.

by **sroc4** Tue Dec 01, 2015 9:23 pm

Math23x7 wrote:"nO coLD Or sNOw tHRouGh deCeMBeR 15tH."

Had we still been on the old 7-online chat board, we would hear that right around now.

Hush now Shmalzie

by **Math23x7** Tue Dec 01, 2015 9:24 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:"nO coLD Or sNOw tHRouGh deCeMBeR 15tH."

Had we still been on the old 7-online chat board, we would hear that right around now.

Hush now Shmalzie

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Dec 01, 2015 9:32 pm

HectorO wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Tom you can rant all you want about how it's over. I will gladly buy your winter stock for pennies. It's Dec 1st my friend. Keep in mind it's not Feb first. Do you recal how much snow fell from Jan 21st - March 31st last year? More than twice the avg. Do you think the pattern can change in the next 51 days? The way I see it if we get any accumulating snow in the next 51 days that's gravy. Is what you say possible? Of course. But talk to me again in 2 months.

The problem isn't Dec 1st or not. Today's technology we're able to find out if in an entire month we're going to see a pattern change or not and if no patter change is present we can write off the month in it's early stages. In late November we were already talking about the first 2 weeks of December being warmer. Two weeks of a month that hadn't even started yet already down the drain. Today's technology takes away the element of surprise lol. Most of us area already looking to January, and by late December we'll know if January's first week or two can be written off too.

Pretty true, though unforseen changes often happen too. Usually when you least expect it. Maybe not so much with overall patterns, but definitely with individual storm systems. Period around Christmas to New Years is still on the table.

by toad strangler Tue Dec 01, 2015 9:40 pm

Go join cocohras, ask Santa to bring you their suggested analog two cylinder style rain gauge, start reporting daily, and like magic you will have major interest in the daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly totals your BY and surrounding areas are actually getting as compared to "official" totals that might be miles and miles from your BY. You will be amazed at how different numbers will be over very small distance ..... AND you will lose this blind and needy addiction for snow. It will become the cherry on top!

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Dec 01, 2015 10:07 pm

Im not writing off the whole winter, im not liking the fact the El Nino has continued to stregnthen over the past month when we were hoping it hit its peak earlier. We can and likely still will see a pattern change in January but the stronger it becomes the higher the chances of a more transient winter with a more mild pattern and nearer to average snowfall instead of this blown up cold and snowy winter everyone was harping about. Im just concerned it may be too strong of an el nino and it may end up being a negative factor instead of positive as if it was a more mild one because its continued trending up. Things can still change and we'll know a lot more how this is going to play out a month from now thats all Im saying. Not completely writing off the whole winter by any means but beginning to get a bit concerned.

by **sroc4** Tue Dec 01, 2015 10:10 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Im not writing off the whole winter, im not liking the fact the El Nino has continued to stregnthen over the past month when we were hoping it hit its peak earlier. We can and likely still will see a pattern change in January but the stronger it becomes the higher the chances of a more transient winter with a more mild pattern and nearer to average snowfall instead of this blown up cold and snowy winter everyone was harping about. Im just concerned it may be too strong of an el nino and it may end up being a negative factor instead of positive as if it was a more mild one because its continued trending up. Things can still change and we'll know a lot more how this is going to play out a month from now thats all Im saying. Not completely writing off the whole winter by any means but beginning to get a bit concerned.

Fair enough

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Dec 01, 2015 10:25 pm

toad strangler wrote:Go join cocohras, ask Santa to bring you their suggested analog two cylinder style rain gauge, start reporting daily, and like magic you will have major interest in the daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly totals your BY and surrounding areas are actually getting as compared to "official" totals that might be miles and miles from your BY. You will be amazed at how different numbers will be over very small distance ..... AND you will lose this blind and needy addiction for snow. It will become the cherry on top!

That's true. It's very common for people to dissappear when spring and summer come around. Even I'm less active unless we're tracking a tropical system or severe weather. If we can find a way to stay interested year round then the need or lust for snow may not be as great for some people. Meh, who am I kidding. Where's my Godzilla?

by toad strangler Tue Dec 01, 2015 10:36 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
toad strangler wrote:Go join cocohras, ask Santa to bring you their suggested analog two cylinder style rain gauge, start reporting daily, and like magic you will have major interest in the daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly totals your BY and surrounding areas are actually getting as compared to "official" totals that might be miles and miles from your BY. You will be amazed at how different numbers will be over very small distance ..... AND you will lose this blind and needy addiction for snow. It will become the cherry on top!

That's true. It's very common for people to dissappear when spring and summer come around. Even I'm less active unless we're tracking a tropical system or severe weather. If we can find a way to stay interested year round then the need or lust for snow may not be as great for some people. Meh, who am I kidding. Where's my Godzilla?

Of course today I live in a land where it's nearly impossible for snow and absolutely impossible for accumulating snow so I became real good at this thought process quickly. But, it's still solid advice for you Pole dwellers.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Dec 01, 2015 10:47 pm

I cant think of things to talk about on a weather board when its in the mid 70s for weeks on end and sunny, barely any severe weather until October which was one of the best storms of the year and the one day I left the windows cracked on my new car. Had a few days of storms I can recall in October but barely all dry summer, weird month.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Dec 02, 2015 12:58 am

Speak of the Devil, the next week event may be getting interesting, check out the 0z CMC, looks like its trying to get cold air involved.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=000&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=132

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Dec 02, 2015 4:21 am

IT waSn't SChmaLtZie thaT WRotE LIke THiS iT WAs SoMeoNE NamED LaULAr.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Dec 02, 2015 5:47 am

Ahh the old board...

by **sroc4** Wed Dec 02, 2015 6:28 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:IT waSn't SChmaLtZie thaT WRotE LIke THiS iT WAs SoMeoNE NamED LaULAr.

Lol that's right. They were probably the same crazy person anyway.

by **snow247** Wed Dec 02, 2015 7:04 am

Anyone remember Waxino?

by **HectorO** Wed Dec 02, 2015 7:54 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:IT waSn't SChmaLtZie thaT WRotE LIke THiS iT WAs SoMeoNE NamED LaULAr.

Laular!! Lmao. She or he used to talk about their cats all the time and how the cats hadn't been sleeping next to the radiator because it's too warm.

by **HectorO** Wed Dec 02, 2015 7:55 am

snow247 wrote:Anyone remember Waxino?

Wax was a bitter guy at times. Bi polar. We told him about this board, and he said he wouldn't come here and he was gonna make his own.

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