Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

by **docstox12** Thu Dec 17, 2015 9:25 am

As Tug McGraw of the Mets used to say...."Ya Gotta BELIEVE!!!"

All this ridiculously mild weather will result in a monster snowstorm in Feb or March.Shades of February 1983!!!!!

Sticking my neck out here but just sayin'.......

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Dec 17, 2015 10:03 am

I hoping in january

by **jmanley32** Thu Dec 17, 2015 10:58 am

The storm was back on the 06z and who gets it? Boston! GRRRR, not that this will happen but it moved up to fantasy hour of 336. We will see could always be a surprise I always say mother nature does not play by the model rules always, or the trends.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Dec 17, 2015 10:59 am

On track to be #8 snowless December on record (in NJ that is) there are 7 thus far.

by **sroc4** Thu Dec 17, 2015 11:27 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:On track to be #8 snowless December on record (in NJ that is) there are 7 thus far.

Any idea how many of them ended up above/below/or avg snowfall for the etire season, what years they were, and if any were mod-strong Ninos??

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Dec 17, 2015 11:41 am

sroc4 wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:On track to be #8 snowless December on record (in NJ that is) there are 7 thus far.

Any idea how many of them ended up above/below/or avg snowfall for the etire season, what years they were, and if any were mod-strong Ninos??

Not sure, but some of these years stand out to me, 1943, 1953, 1965, 1990, 1994, 2006, 2011

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Dec 17, 2015 11:53 am

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

Many of those years El Nino besides 2011 moderate La Nina which produced good snow in the end.

by Guest Thu Dec 17, 2015 12:14 pm

Math23x7 wrote:It was one year ago today that the first "Wx Banter Thread" was created, mainly because the models, which had a snowstorm for around 12/21/14, backed off on the snow AND showed a massive GLC for Christmas. Of course, we have a ways to go if we are going to get any of that this time around, but it's interesting looking back at the banter threads at how it shifted from non-winter, to bust (Juno) to Boston envy to pretty good winter.

By the way, this is actually the third Wx banter thread on this forum. Here are those three:

First one (starts 12/16/14): https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t402-wx-banter-thread-1-0

Second one (Starts 2/9/15): https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t473-wx-banter-thread-1-0

Third (and current) one (starts 9/14/15): https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t572-wx-banter-thread-2-0

I think it was banter thread #1 where Frank Banned me and I threatened to quit the forum because I mentioned the word BUST in the Juno forecast? Laughing

by Guest Thu Dec 17, 2015 12:15 pm

docstox12 wrote:As Tug McGraw of the Mets used to say...."Ya Gotta BELIEVE!!!"

All this ridiculously mild weather will result in a monster snowstorm in Feb or March.Shades of February 1983!!!!!

Sticking my neck out here but just sayin'.......

Sounds good, but after this bullsh-- weather into January I'm going to need more than 1 good snowstorm to cure my issues.

by **jmanley32** Thu Dec 17, 2015 12:23 pm

Ice storm anyone over to snow? LOL, GFS has shown thos system though for several runs now in one way or another still fantasy land though.

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 25 Ice_st10

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Dec 17, 2015 12:24 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:It was one year ago today that the first "Wx Banter Thread" was created, mainly because the models, which had a snowstorm for around 12/21/14, backed off on the snow AND showed a massive GLC for Christmas. Of course, we have a ways to go if we are going to get any of that this time around, but it's interesting looking back at the banter threads at how it shifted from non-winter, to bust (Juno) to Boston envy to pretty good winter.

By the way, this is actually the third Wx banter thread on this forum. Here are those three:

First one (starts 12/16/14): https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t402-wx-banter-thread-1-0

Second one (Starts 2/9/15): https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t473-wx-banter-thread-1-0

Third (and current) one (starts 9/14/15): https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t572-wx-banter-thread-2-0

I think it was banter thread #1 where Frank Banned me and I threatened to quit the forum because I mentioned the word BUST in the Juno forecast?

Why were you saying bust? In LI I recall you probably did quite well with that storm. However the EURO dropped the ball big time with that storm and I could tell by how it was evolving it was coming together too far east and ended up screwing western areas yet again, ended up like NEMO part II. Ended up with upper single digits with a forecast of 12-18+" godzilla, saw it coming...

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Dec 17, 2015 12:24 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Ice storm anyone over to snow? LOL, GFS has shown thos system though for several runs now in one way or another still fantasy land though.

Mentioned it in the LR thread.

by Guest Thu Dec 17, 2015 12:38 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:It was one year ago today that the first "Wx Banter Thread" was created, mainly because the models, which had a snowstorm for around 12/21/14, backed off on the snow AND showed a massive GLC for Christmas. Of course, we have a ways to go if we are going to get any of that this time around, but it's interesting looking back at the banter threads at how it shifted from non-winter, to bust (Juno) to Boston envy to pretty good winter.

By the way, this is actually the third Wx banter thread on this forum. Here are those three:

First one (starts 12/16/14): https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t402-wx-banter-thread-1-0

Second one (Starts 2/9/15): https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t473-wx-banter-thread-1-0

Third (and current) one (starts 9/14/15): https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t572-wx-banter-thread-2-0

I think it was banter thread #1 where Frank Banned me and I threatened to quit the forum because I mentioned the word BUST in the Juno forecast?
Why were you saying bust? In LI I recall you probably did quite well with that storm. However the EURO dropped the ball big time with that storm and I could tell by how it was evolving it was coming together too far east and ended up screwing western areas yet again, ended up like NEMO part II. Ended up with upper single digits with a forecast of 12-18+" godzilla, saw it coming...

I'll take a 12 to 18" every day of the week!!!!! BUT when every media outlet and our leader are calling for 30 to 36" IMBY inside of 12 hours of the storm beginning, then 12 to 18" is a bust.

by Guest Thu Dec 17, 2015 12:42 pm

Wow!!! Things have really "slowed down" out west!!!! Mad

Today

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 21. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 20 to 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches possible.

Tonight

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 7. Windy, with a south southwest wind 24 to 29 mph increasing to 32 to 37 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 21 to 27 inches possible.

Friday

Snow showers. Temperature falling to around 2 by 4pm. Windy, with a west southwest wind 34 to 44 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Friday Night

Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around -2. West southwest wind around 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Saturday

Snow showers likely. Cloudy and cold, with a high near 4. West wind around 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Saturday Night

Snow. Low around -2. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible.

Sunday

Snow. High near 5. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible.

by **sroc4** Thu Dec 17, 2015 12:53 pm

A mere 69"-103" of new snow in the next 3.5days. Childs play I say

by **Dunnzoo** Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:04 pm

Ugh, rain gauge not working. Going to have to climb on the garage roof tomorrow to see what's up. Maybe I should take it off the roof and find a more accessible place in the yard!

by Guest Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:40 pm

Here We Go Things starting to head in the right direction perhaps?? Lake Effect snow warnings up for areas downwind of lake Ontario.

* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...7 TO 13 INCHES
SATURDAY...2 TO 4 INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AN INCH OR LESS
SUNDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 FEET IN THE MOST
PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS ON THE TUG HILL PLATEAU...AND 12 TO 15
INCHES IN PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.

first tangible signs of winter approaching New York State.

by **docstox12** Thu Dec 17, 2015 2:55 pm

I'll tell you one thing, those waters are probably so warm that there will be a lake effect snowmageddon under the right circumstances.

I think this is the first big snow event up there this season.

by **Radz** Fri Dec 18, 2015 8:29 pm

Haha:

TWAS THE NIGHT BEFORE CHRISTMAS (snow lover version)
Twas the night before Christmas and all through the east
Not a snowflake was flying, Not one in the least
Snow lovers where checking inside of a stocking
To see if Santa would leave them some blocking
The pattern you see is very complex
Because ot the northernmost polar vortex
While some models show the pattern will switch
there is always a model that puts up a hitch
The weenies all lined up along side a bridge
And threatened to jump because of the ridge
But whether it changes or just stays the same
The day to day weather will always remain
A challenge to forecast for which is your call
From Joe Cioffi the wish, Merry Christmas to All!

by **Dunnzoo** Fri Dec 18, 2015 10:07 pm

Radz wrote:Haha:

TWAS THE NIGHT BEFORE CHRISTMAS (snow lover version)
Twas the night before Christmas and all through the east
Not a snowflake was flying, Not one in the least
Snow lovers where checking inside of a stocking
To see if Santa would leave them some blocking
The pattern you see is very complex
Because ot the northernmost polar vortex
While some models show the pattern will switch
there is always a model that puts up a hitch
The weenies all lined up along side a bridge
And threatened to jump because of the ridge
But whether it changes or just stays the same
The day to day weather will always remain
A challenge to forecast for which is your call
From Joe Cioffi the wish, Merry Christmas to All!

Awesome!

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Dec 18, 2015 11:06 pm

Radz wrote:Haha:

TWAS THE NIGHT BEFORE CHRISTMAS (snow lover version)
Twas the night before Christmas and all through the east
Not a snowflake was flying, Not one in the least
Snow lovers where checking inside of a stocking
To see if Santa would leave them some blocking
The pattern you see is very complex
Because ot the northernmost polar vortex
While some models show the pattern will switch
there is always a model that puts up a hitch
The weenies all lined up along side a bridge
And threatened to jump because of the ridge
But whether it changes or just stays the same
The day to day weather will always remain
A challenge to forecast for which is your call
From Joe Cioffi the wish, Merry Christmas to All!

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Dec 19, 2015 10:46 am

Delete

by **Math23x7** Sat Dec 19, 2015 10:48 am

20 years ago today, a snowstorm rolled through the area. LaGuardia Airport made a snowfall measurement of around 15" while Central Park made a snowfall measurement of 7.7"

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Dec 19, 2015 10:51 am

Math23x7 wrote:20 years ago today, a snowstorm rolled through the area. LaGuardia Airport made a snowfall measurement of around 15" while Central Park made a snowfall measurement of 7.7"

And someone two blocks from Central Park measured 14", but they went with the 7.7 because they're incompetent.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Dec 19, 2015 10:53 am

Radz wrote:Haha:

TWAS THE NIGHT BEFORE CHRISTMAS (snow lover version)
Twas the night before Christmas and all through the east
Not a snowflake was flying, Not one in the least
Snow lovers where checking inside of a stocking
To see if Santa would leave them some blocking
The pattern you see is very complex
Because ot the northernmost polar vortex
While some models show the pattern will switch
there is always a model that puts up a hitch
The weenies all lined up along side a bridge
And threatened to jump because of the ridge
But whether it changes or just stays the same
The day to day weather will always remain
A challenge to forecast for which is your call
From Joe Cioffi the wish, Merry Christmas to All!

Decembers average in NYC this month is now 51.8 through the 18th, the record highest December average is 44.1 so that record looks like a lock. As a matter of fact right now it looks like one of those monthly records that will never be touched its so far out of whack.

The average temperature for the month of April in NYC is 53.0, so right now this December is a fairly average April. Sounds about right.

Nice poem Radz, it sums it up beautifully.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Dec 19, 2015 10:54 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Decembers average in NYC this month is now 51.8 through the 18th, the record highest December average is 44.1 so that record looks like a lock. As a matter of fact right now it looks like one of those monthly records that will never be touched its so far out of whack.

The average temperature for the month of April in NYC is 53.0, so right now this December is a fairly average April. Sounds about right.

Nice poem Radz, it sums it up beautifully.

After about 3 days of mid to upper 40s, we will eclipse 51.8 (at least forecast down here) and surge back into the mid upper 60s for several days. This will knock the average up to the mid 50s by the end of the month imo, like you said, unprecedented, but i didnt quite know it was THAT rare, thanks for digging up the records as always CP.

by **Math23x7** Sat Dec 19, 2015 12:04 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Decembers average in NYC this month is now 51.8 through the 18th, the record highest December average is 44.1 so that record looks like a lock. As a matter of fact right now it looks like one of those monthly records that will never be touched its so far out of whack.

The average temperature for the month of April in NYC is 53.0, so right now this December is a fairly average April. Sounds about right.

Nice poem Radz, it sums it up beautifully.
After about 3 days of mid to upper 40s, we will eclipse 51.8 (at least forecast down here) and surge back into the mid upper 60s for several days. This will knock the average up to the mid 50s by the end of the month imo, like you said, unprecedented, but i didnt quite know it was THAT rare, thanks for digging up the records as always CP.

Through 18 days, the average temperature for December in NYC is 51.8, which would qualify as the warmest MARCH on record.

Take the two warmest Marches on record: 1945 and 2012, which averaged 51.1 and 50.9, respectively (although for some reason the LCD publication data says 51.0).

I also looked at the average MINIMUM temperatures for those two Marches. They were 42.1 and 42.7, respectively. So far the average minimum temperature is running at 46.1. And the average mean temperature for December 2001 (which entering this month was the warmest December on record) if 44.1, a full two degrees LESS than this months average minimum.

Finally, let's look at the lowest temperature reading of March 1945 and March 2012. They were 26 and 25, respectively. Is it possible that this month it goes nowhere those readings? It is.

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