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December 2015 Observations & Discussions

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Post by aiannone Tue Dec 01, 2015 6:20 pm

Thanks guys! And undergrad Ryan. Going to get a degree in Accounting there.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 01, 2015 6:34 pm

@aiannone wrote:Off topic, but it is an observation. I just observed my email and saw that I have been ACCEPTED into Binghamton University's School of Management!!!

Congrats Alex. You're on your way to learning about the corrupt world of corporate America. It's a lot of fun! Haha, jk good luck

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 01, 2015 6:37 pm

It looks like another round of moderate rain is likely between 4-8pm tomorrow. Total rainfall from both days will approach 2+ inches in some places. These storms this year are loaded with QPF. Man, it's the type of pattern that's ripe for a Frankzilla if everything came together just right.

December 2015 Observations & Discussions - Page 2 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f33

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 01, 2015 7:39 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:It looks like another round of moderate rain is likely between 4-8pm tomorrow. Total rainfall from both days will approach 2+ inches in some places. These storms this year are loaded with QPF. Man, it's the type of pattern that's ripe for a Frankzilla if everything came together just right.

December 2015 Observations & Discussions - Page 2 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f33

Oy, don't tease us lol. If there were a question for that in the contest I would guessed one. I think we will have a surprise late Jan or Feb at least Godzilla if not even higher (Frankzilla?) The storm around 9th is looking very strong on the GFS currently has 991mb system off shore drops 2+ inches and pretty high winds verbatim. Lots of time for that one to change though, it has come and gone past 5-7 days. Nonetheless it won't be white alas.
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Post by billg315 Tue Dec 01, 2015 8:23 pm

@aiannone wrote:Off topic, but it is an observation. I just observed my email and saw that I have been ACCEPTED into Binghamton University's School of Management!!!
Congratulations! Fantastic news. You are going to do great there!
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Post by amugs Tue Dec 01, 2015 8:28 pm

@ JMAN that storm is beast if it comes to fruition - look at the cold air sitting over central pa - no mechanism to bring it this way - if so I think we'd be jumping up and down like this!!!!!!!


or this
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2954923/Over-excited-meteorologist-loses-rare-thundersnow-hits-Massachusetts.html#v-4054616512001

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 01, 2015 9:13 pm

Round 1, which brought over 1 inch of rain to most places, is on its way out. Watch out for freezing rain if you're in northern New England. Round 2 is expected to hit our area tomorrow. The heaviest of which to come between 3p-7p tomorrow. Another inch of rain possible.
We'll dry out for the weekend with temps hovering around 50 degrees.

December 2015 Observations & Discussions - Page 2 12316569_1003767179666972_4776938254491407474_n

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Post by algae888 Wed Dec 02, 2015 9:52 am

So far I only received .5 inches of rain as it's mostly been drizzly and dreary. Central Park has less. most of the rain on radar this morning looks to be well west of us and short range models have a clearing out by 00z. I'm probably going to receive less than 1 inch of rain from this system
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Post by Guest Wed Dec 02, 2015 10:11 am

I posted this in the LR forum also because it's a combination of both.

Besides some of the people on this forum beginning to get nervous about a non-winter because of how warm it has been and the forecast going forward, I am nervous about winter for a different reason. I am a BIG believer in patterns, and so far the last 3 rain storms for my area including this one have been a total BUST. I have received less than half of the forecasted rainfall from each one, while areas N/W have exceeded expectations. Mad Mad Mad

This "storm" so far has given me a whopping .17 inches and nothing showing up downstream on the radar heading this way, while the LHV and NNJ make out again

Hopefully this is not a preview of the winter once it gets established next month??? Shocked Shocked Shocked

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Post by Quietace Wed Dec 02, 2015 11:13 am

syosnow94 wrote:I posted this in the LR forum also because it's a combination of both.

Besides some of the people on this forum beginning to get nervous about a non-winter because of how warm it has been and the forecast going forward, I am nervous about winter for a different reason. I am a BIG believer in patterns, and so far the last 3 rain storms for my area including this one have been a total BUST. I have received less than half of the forecasted rainfall from each one, while areas N/W have exceeded expectations.  Mad  Mad  Mad  

This "storm" so far has given me a whopping .17 inches and nothing showing up downstream on the radar heading this way, while the LHV and NNJ make out again

Hopefully this is not a preview of the winter once it gets established next month??? Shocked Shocked Shocked
You can detect the ramification of the strength of the STJ by the shear number of storms that have occurred in the CONUS this fall. What arrises once the system arrives to the EC is more of a mesoscale issue(precip shield placement, Low track, etc) rather than a broad synoptic issue, as the pattern is slowly transitioning. With the lack of a favorable Atlantic arrangement, it is understandable that most systems are favoring inland folks rather than coastal regions.

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Post by Guest Wed Dec 02, 2015 11:50 am

@Quietace wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:I posted this in the LR forum also because it's a combination of both.

Besides some of the people on this forum beginning to get nervous about a non-winter because of how warm it has been and the forecast going forward, I am nervous about winter for a different reason. I am a BIG believer in patterns, and so far the last 3 rain storms for my area including this one have been a total BUST. I have received less than half of the forecasted rainfall from each one, while areas N/W have exceeded expectations.  Mad  Mad  Mad  

This "storm" so far has given me a whopping .17 inches and nothing showing up downstream on the radar heading this way, while the LHV and NNJ make out again

Hopefully this is not a preview of the winter once it gets established next month??? Shocked Shocked Shocked
You can detect the ramification of the strength of the STJ by the shear number of storms that have occurred in the CONUS this fall. What arrises once the system arrives to the EC is more of a mesoscale issue(precip shield placement, Low track, etc) rather than a broad synoptic issue, as the pattern is slowly transitioning. With the lack of a favorable Atlantic arrangement, it is understandable that most systems are favoring inland folks rather than coastal regions.

ShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked
Say that 10 times fast!!!!  Holy crap.  I think most people are going to need a meteorological dictionary.  Why couldn't you just say the coast has been getting screwed. tongue tongue   I think Doc and CP and those other "inlanders" (I'm coining a new catch phrase hear) put some kind of weird voodoo hex on us at a closed door OTI meeting.

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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Dec 02, 2015 12:50 pm

.31" yesterday and .24" so far today here

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by amugs Wed Dec 02, 2015 4:03 pm

.42" here today at 46* - you know what is worse than this fog, northwest weather pattern we are in - 34* and rain!!!!!!

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 02, 2015 4:08 pm

Wow, if the CMC verifies just a nudge to the west we are in trouble rain and wind wise (those are sustained surface!). CMC doesnt have a output for gusts that I know of, but this is obviously not the actual outcome especially in respects to any wind we may or may not experience. Oh if it were only cold we would have a blizzard possibly on our hands. Euro develops it but it drops SE and OTS (odd?). GFS is in line with CMC but weaker. Still 8 or so days to go, a lot will change, My only hope is we are seeing these kinda bad boys in JFM!

December 2015 Observations & Discussions - Page 2 Cmc_ms10
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 02, 2015 4:14 pm

I am not sure what the actual central pressure is but its gotta be in the 970s! It continues NE and clips MA and eastern CT, cape cod gets a 12 hr period of 40mph sustained winds and heavy rain. I know no one is interested in a wind rainstorm but lets get these coming in a good spot so they can continue that way, now westward trend!

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 02, 2015 4:18 pm

Huge spread of Euro ensembles wow, though most have a storm.
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Post by amugs Wed Dec 02, 2015 4:35 pm

Jman - check wx banter thread- I put up some maps there for everyone pleasure!

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Dec 02, 2015 6:10 pm

Didn't get that much rain today about .10 inch majority fell yesterday giving me 1.38 in the bucket
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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Dec 02, 2015 6:32 pm

Got .37" today, most of it went west and north. Mugsy, in the hole again!

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Dec 02, 2015 8:37 pm

Jman check the LR thread, CMC ensembles many members show a storm some with 980 at/inside the benchmark.
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Post by amugs Wed Dec 02, 2015 9:03 pm


From Unc W - 12-26 ring a bell?? Ding Ding

December 10" or greater snowfalls...
Year....date....amount"...
1872...12/26.......18.0"
1912...12/24........11.4"
1916...12/15........12.7"
1933...12/26........11.2"
1947...12/26-27...26.4"
1948...12/19-20...16.0"
1959...12/21-22...13.7"
1960...12/11-12...15.2"
2000...12/30........12.0"
2003...12/5-6.......14.0"
2009...12/19-20...10.9"
2010...12/26-27...20.0"

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 02, 2015 9:11 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:I posted this in the LR forum also because it's a combination of both.

Besides some of the people on this forum beginning to get nervous about a non-winter because of how warm it has been and the forecast going forward, I am nervous about winter for a different reason. I am a BIG believer in patterns, and so far the last 3 rain storms for my area including this one have been a total BUST. I have received less than half of the forecasted rainfall from each one, while areas N/W have exceeded expectations.  Mad  Mad  Mad  

This "storm" so far has given me a whopping .17 inches and nothing showing up downstream on the radar heading this way, while the LHV and NNJ make out again

Hopefully this is not a preview of the winter once it gets established next month??? Shocked Shocked Shocked

You can detect the ramification of the strength of the STJ by the shear number of storms that have occurred in the CONUS this fall. What arrises once the system arrives to the EC is more of a mesoscale issue(precip shield placement, Low track, etc) rather than a broad synoptic issue, as the pattern is slowly transitioning. With the lack of a favorable Atlantic arrangement, it is understandable that most systems are favoring inland folks rather than coastal regions.

ShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked
Say that 10 times fast!!!!  Holy crap.  I think most people are going to need a meteorological dictionary.  Why couldn't you just say the coast has been getting screwed. tongue tongue   I think Doc and CP and those other "inlanders" (I'm coining a new catch phrase hear) put some kind of weird voodoo hex on us at a closed door OTI meeting.

lol! lol! Thumbs up

@amugs wrote:.42" here today at 46* - you know what is worse than this fog, northwest weather pattern we are in - 34* and rain!!!!!!

Brick white flag

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Jman check the LR thread, CMC ensembles many members show a storm some with 980 at/inside the benchmark.

Since we're under 7 days we can prob use this thread to speak about next week's potential Nor'easter

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 02, 2015 9:18 pm

Speaking of Nor'easter, models all over the place of course,

18z GFS shows a weak coastal low with heavy rain

December 2015 Observations & Discussions - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f177

12z CMC outputs a large and potent coastal system but the bulk remaining out to sea

December 2015 Observations & Discussions - Page 2 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f153

12z euro is a miss to the south - looks like there is a strong high to the north blocking it's track north

December 2015 Observations & Discussions - Page 2 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f150

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 02, 2015 9:18 pm

JB already tooting the horn about noreaster, high winds and beach erosion....and you guys thought I was obsessed. If it deepens as much as CMC shows I could see wind and ocean issues, otherwise just another aweful rainstorm.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 02, 2015 9:19 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Speaking of Nor'easter, models all over the place of course,

18z GFS shows a weak coastal low with heavy rain

December 2015 Observations & Discussions - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f177

12z CMC outputs a large and potent coastal system but the bulk remaining out to sea

December 2015 Observations & Discussions - Page 2 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f153

12z euro is a miss to the south - looks like there is a strong high to the north blocking it's track north

December 2015 Observations & Discussions - Page 2 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f150

Well there is one thing going for them, they all have a system. Which will play out IYO?
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