December 2015 Observations & Discussions

aiannone wrote:Off topic, but it is an observation. I just observed my email and saw that I have been ACCEPTED into Binghamton University's School of Management!!!

Lol. Congrats Alex!!!

Congrats!

Thanks guys! And undergrad Ryan. Going to get a degree in Accounting there.

aiannone wrote:Off topic, but it is an observation. I just observed my email and saw that I have been ACCEPTED into Binghamton University's School of Management!!!

Congrats Alex. You're on your way to learning about the corrupt world of corporate America. It's a lot of fun! Haha, jk good luck

It looks like another round of moderate rain is likely between 4-8pm tomorrow. Total rainfall from both days will approach 2+ inches in some places. These storms this year are loaded with QPF. Man, it's the type of pattern that's ripe for a Frankzilla if everything came together just right.

Frank_Wx wrote:It looks like another round of moderate rain is likely between 4-8pm tomorrow. Total rainfall from both days will approach 2+ inches in some places. These storms this year are loaded with QPF. Man, it's the type of pattern that's ripe for a Frankzilla if everything came together just right.

Oy, don't tease us lol. If there were a question for that in the contest I would guessed one. I think we will have a surprise late Jan or Feb at least Godzilla if not even higher (Frankzilla?) The storm around 9th is looking very strong on the GFS currently has 991mb system off shore drops 2+ inches and pretty high winds verbatim. Lots of time for that one to change though, it has come and gone past 5-7 days. Nonetheless it won't be white alas.

aiannone wrote:Off topic, but it is an observation. I just observed my email and saw that I have been ACCEPTED into Binghamton University's School of Management!!!

Congratulations! Fantastic news. You are going to do great there!

@ JMAN that storm is beast if it comes to fruition - look at the cold air sitting over central pa - no mechanism to bring it this way - if so I think we'd be jumping up and down like this!!!!!!!


or this
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2954923/Over-excited-meteorologist-loses-rare-thundersnow-hits-Massachusetts.html#v-4054616512001

Round 1, which brought over 1 inch of rain to most places, is on its way out. Watch out for freezing rain if you're in northern New England. Round 2 is expected to hit our area tomorrow. The heaviest of which to come between 3p-7p tomorrow. Another inch of rain possible.
We'll dry out for the weekend with temps hovering around 50 degrees.

So far I only received .5 inches of rain as it's mostly been drizzly and dreary. Central Park has less. most of the rain on radar this morning looks to be well west of us and short range models have a clearing out by 00z. I'm probably going to receive less than 1 inch of rain from this system

I posted this in the LR forum also because it's a combination of both.

Besides some of the people on this forum beginning to get nervous about a non-winter because of how warm it has been and the forecast going forward, I am nervous about winter for a different reason. I am a BIG believer in patterns, and so far the last 3 rain storms for my area including this one have been a total BUST. I have received less than half of the forecasted rainfall from each one, while areas N/W have exceeded expectations.

This "storm" so far has given me a whopping .17 inches and nothing showing up downstream on the radar heading this way, while the LHV and NNJ make out again

Hopefully this is not a preview of the winter once it gets established next month???

syosnow94 wrote:I posted this in the LR forum also because it's a combination of both.

Besides some of the people on this forum beginning to get nervous about a non-winter because of how warm it has been and the forecast going forward, I am nervous about winter for a different reason. I am a BIG believer in patterns, and so far the last 3 rain storms for my area including this one have been a total BUST. I have received less than half of the forecasted rainfall from each one, while areas N/W have exceeded expectations.        

This "storm" so far has given me a whopping .17 inches and nothing showing up downstream on the radar heading this way, while the LHV and NNJ make out again

Hopefully this is not a preview of the winter once it gets established next month???

You can detect the ramification of the strength of the STJ by the shear number of storms that have occurred in the CONUS this fall. What arrises once the system arrives to the EC is more of a mesoscale issue(precip shield placement, Low track, etc) rather than a broad synoptic issue, as the pattern is slowly transitioning. With the lack of a favorable Atlantic arrangement, it is understandable that most systems are favoring inland folks rather than coastal regions.

Quietace wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:I posted this in the LR forum also because it's a combination of both.

Besides some of the people on this forum beginning to get nervous about a non-winter because of how warm it has been and the forecast going forward, I am nervous about winter for a different reason. I am a BIG believer in patterns, and so far the last 3 rain storms for my area including this one have been a total BUST. I have received less than half of the forecasted rainfall from each one, while areas N/W have exceeded expectations.        

This "storm" so far has given me a whopping .17 inches and nothing showing up downstream on the radar heading this way, while the LHV and NNJ make out again

Hopefully this is not a preview of the winter once it gets established next month???

You can detect the ramification of the strength of the STJ by the shear number of storms that have occurred in the CONUS this fall. What arrises once the system arrives to the EC is more of a mesoscale issue(precip shield placement, Low track, etc) rather than a broad synoptic issue, as the pattern is slowly transitioning. With the lack of a favorable Atlantic arrangement, it is understandable that most systems are favoring inland folks rather than coastal regions.

Say that 10 times fast!!!!  Holy crap.  I think most people are going to need a meteorological dictionary.  Why couldn't you just say the coast has been getting screwed.   I think Doc and CP and those other "inlanders" (I'm coining a new catch phrase hear) put some kind of weird voodoo hex on us at a closed door OTI meeting.

.31" yesterday and .24" so far today here

.42" here today at 46* - you know what is worse than this fog, northwest weather pattern we are in - 34* and rain!!!!!!

Wow, if the CMC verifies just a nudge to the west we are in trouble rain and wind wise (those are sustained surface!). CMC doesnt have a output for gusts that I know of, but this is obviously not the actual outcome especially in respects to any wind we may or may not experience. Oh if it were only cold we would have a blizzard possibly on our hands. Euro develops it but it drops SE and OTS (odd?). GFS is in line with CMC but weaker. Still 8 or so days to go, a lot will change, My only hope is we are seeing these kinda bad boys in JFM!

I am not sure what the actual central pressure is but its gotta be in the 970s! It continues NE and clips MA and eastern CT, cape cod gets a 12 hr period of 40mph sustained winds and heavy rain. I know no one is interested in a wind rainstorm but lets get these coming in a good spot so they can continue that way, now westward trend!

Huge spread of Euro ensembles wow, though most have a storm.

Jman - check wx banter thread- I put up some maps there for everyone pleasure!

Didn't get that much rain today about .10 inch majority fell yesterday giving me 1.38 in the bucket

Got .37" today, most of it went west and north. Mugsy, in the hole again!

Jman check the LR thread, CMC ensembles many members show a storm some with 980 at/inside the benchmark.

From Unc W - 12-26 ring a bell?? Ding Ding

December 10" or greater snowfalls...
Year....date....amount"...
1872...12/26.......18.0"
1912...12/24........11.4"
1916...12/15........12.7"
1933...12/26........11.2"
1947...12/26-27...26.4"
1948...12/19-20...16.0"
1959...12/21-22...13.7"
1960...12/11-12...15.2"
2000...12/30........12.0"
2003...12/5-6.......14.0"
2009...12/19-20...10.9"
2010...12/26-27...20.0"

syosnow94 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:I posted this in the LR forum also because it's a combination of both.

Besides some of the people on this forum beginning to get nervous about a non-winter because of how warm it has been and the forecast going forward, I am nervous about winter for a different reason. I am a BIG believer in patterns, and so far the last 3 rain storms for my area including this one have been a total BUST. I have received less than half of the forecasted rainfall from each one, while areas N/W have exceeded expectations.        

This "storm" so far has given me a whopping .17 inches and nothing showing up downstream on the radar heading this way, while the LHV and NNJ make out again

Hopefully this is not a preview of the winter once it gets established next month???

You can detect the ramification of the strength of the STJ by the shear number of storms that have occurred in the CONUS this fall. What arrises once the system arrives to the EC is more of a mesoscale issue(precip shield placement, Low track, etc) rather than a broad synoptic issue, as the pattern is slowly transitioning. With the lack of a favorable Atlantic arrangement, it is understandable that most systems are favoring inland folks rather than coastal regions.

Say that 10 times fast!!!!  Holy crap.  I think most people are going to need a meteorological dictionary.  Why couldn't you just say the coast has been getting screwed.   I think Doc and CP and those other "inlanders" (I'm coining a new catch phrase hear) put some kind of weird voodoo hex on us at a closed door OTI meeting.

amugs wrote:.42" here today at 46* - you know what is worse than this fog, northwest weather pattern we are in - 34* and rain!!!!!!

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Jman check the LR thread, CMC ensembles many members show a storm some with 980 at/inside the benchmark.

Since we're under 7 days we can prob use this thread to speak about next week's potential Nor'easter

Speaking of Nor'easter, models all over the place of course,

18z GFS shows a weak coastal low with heavy rain



12z CMC outputs a large and potent coastal system but the bulk remaining out to sea



12z euro is a miss to the south - looks like there is a strong high to the north blocking it's track north

JB already tooting the horn about noreaster, high winds and beach erosion....and you guys thought I was obsessed. If it deepens as much as CMC shows I could see wind and ocean issues, otherwise just another aweful rainstorm.

Frank_Wx wrote:Speaking of Nor'easter, models all over the place of course,

18z GFS shows a weak coastal low with heavy rain



12z CMC outputs a large and potent coastal system but the bulk remaining out to sea



12z euro is a miss to the south - looks like there is a strong high to the north blocking it's track north

Well there is one thing going for them, they all have a system. Which will play out IYO?