January 2016 Observations and Discussions

Not a bad morning temp wise. Plymouth still has a small snow cover from the winter storm last week.

Nice to see white ground Ace.

reaching a highy of 45 today this weather is boring can we please get some snow soon even if we get 4 to 12 inches i will be very happy

Cold evening in dobbs ferry but mild 46* night in the bx.

The record high for CPK for this Sunday is 60 degrees.  It may be a close one.

So I saw some forecasts for some drizzle and possibly freezing drizzle for tomorrow night for parts of LI, CT and Hudson Valley from some low level moisture moving in from the east. Any thoughts? I'm driving out to Commack tomorrow and am deciding if I should bring an overnight bag just in case.

Tomorrow night looks dry to me. There's a huge storm over the Atlantic but I don't think it gets near us.

Frank_Wx wrote:Tomorrow night looks dry to me. There's a huge storm over the Atlantic but I don't think it gets near us.

That's what I thought, don't know why NWS NY was forecasting it.

https://www.facebook.com/NWSNewYorkNY/?fref=nf

0z GFS has a nice 1-3 inches of snow for the city on north and east next Wednesday.

cmc blows 13th storm up big time 2-4 around nyc, if just goes bit faster we could have a decent storm. shoot 2-4 b4 the 18th is fine with me!

27* FOR MY LOW !!

29 for a low here. Heavy frost and it formed on the roads. Multiple crashes all over the Island. DOT is now out salting. Had an icy drive my self this morning and saw many spin outs. People don't realize a heavy frost can do that.

NICE this looks great for the 13th.

At this juncture I will take it 2-4!

jmanley32 wrote:At this juncture I will take it 2-4!

Looking at the map it looks like 1-2" only

syosnow94 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:At this juncture I will take it 2-4!

Looking at the map it looks like 1-2" only

Briefly looking at the mid level temp profiles the ratios may be a tad higher than 10:1 on the 12z Verbatim

Makes sense!!

The 12z GFS outputs snow showers Wednesday morning that could accumulate 1-3" across the area. We'll see if intensity picks up as we get closer.



I will have a more detailed write up tonight.

Im not sure I buy the surface reflection (ie: the LP placement) on the Euro given its 500mb vort maps regarding the clipper.  I think it should a bit further S to look more like the CMC.  GFS was def the deepest of the 12z op runs so far.

There is one aspect of the system that all guidance agrees on, their is limited moisture available in the atmosphere at this time(approximately .4 max PWV on the 12z GFS). We will also have to contend with precip shield disruption as it moves over mountainous Pennsylvania. Dew Points are also low, so if precip is light, you may also have to contend with fall streaks before the column saturates(I haven't checked soundings yet).

42.8, 65%, 29.90 F

Partly cloudy. At least there is a winter feel today around here.Some minor piles of the white material we had last week very scattered.Saw ice in a stream and small ponds have a thin crust of ice now.

WWA for us tonight, freezing drizzle, snow and sleet, but then a soaker Saturday night and Sunday.

Quietace wrote:There is one aspect of the system that all guidance agrees on, their is limited moisture available in the atmosphere at this time(approximately .4 max PWV on the 12z GFS). We will also have to contend with precip shield disruption as it moves over mountainous Pennsylvania. Dew Points are also low, so if precip is light, you may also have to contend with fall streaks before the column saturates(I haven't checked soundings yet).

Great point.  Hopefully if it trends further south so we can get the LP taping into the Hotlantic some.

40 in the Bronx and cloudy I am excited to see some snow on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with a minor accumulationbut I'm excited to see a possibility of a big storm next weekend and the cold should we start waking up the zookeeper

35.5, 87%, 29.89 F

Dry as a bone.WWA CANCELLED,LOL!

Soaking rain on the way late tonight and tomorrow.Wish it was white gold but we need the precip.

Temps near 60 tonorrow. There will be a squall line that could bring some thunderstorms to the area.

I wish that was snow instead of rain but we will get our Snow soon

We are going to flip pretty hard in the next 48 -72 hours. Pattern in the Strat overall has changed with some more work to do.

A lot of chatter about the possibility of numerous coastals in th pipeline for Jan. The more we get that Aluetian low to retrograde the better we are in the pattern.

I really could care less about today and tomorrow let alone Dec. Weather, ready for temp and snowfall measurement battles.