Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

by **amugs** Tue Feb 09, 2016 3:59 pm

Check this out from my boy Scott - thinks we see a major EC Storm in a big way PD time frame as I called back in November - yeah bbbboy datS right!! Archambault style with a retreating N AO and NAO, need teh PNA to hold a bit and we could get soem preciuos white gold.

HOLY MOTHER OF COLD!!

This is from the KBUF weather discussion:

THE BIG STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE EXTREME COLD. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER BY FAR INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF TAKE 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -32C ON SATURDAY. TO PUT THIS
IN PROSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A
KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST
EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C. THIS FRIGID AIRMASS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS ON SATURDAY...AND IF THE TIMING
WORKS OUT WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD CROSSING DURING THE DAY HIGHS
MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO
EVERYWHERE...AND 20 BELOW OR BETTER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO
LAKE INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF BITTER COLD AND WIND WILL PRODUCE
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF -40 BELOW.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Feb 09, 2016 4:11 pm

amugs wrote:Check this out from my boy Scott - thinks we see a major EC Storm in a big way PD time frame as I called back in November - yeah bbbboy datS right!! Archambault style with a retreating N AO and NAO, need teh PNA to hold a bit and we could get soem preciuos white gold.

HOLY MOTHER OF COLD!!

This is from the KBUF weather discussion:

THE BIG STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE EXTREME COLD. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER BY FAR INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF TAKE 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -32C ON SATURDAY. TO PUT THIS
IN PROSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A
KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST
EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C. THIS FRIGID AIRMASS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS ON SATURDAY...AND IF THE TIMING
WORKS OUT WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD CROSSING DURING THE DAY HIGHS
MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO
EVERYWHERE...AND 20 BELOW OR BETTER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO
LAKE INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF BITTER COLD AND WIND WILL PRODUCE
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF -40 BELOW.

This will make the snow to rain/slop event Tuesday even harder to take.

Why was I born a snow weenie and how do I finally make it stop?

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Feb 09, 2016 5:18 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
amugs wrote:Check this out from my boy Scott - thinks we see a major EC Storm in a big way PD time frame as I called back in November - yeah bbbboy datS right!! Archambault style with a retreating N AO and NAO, need teh PNA to hold a bit and we could get soem preciuos white gold.

HOLY MOTHER OF COLD!!

This is from the KBUF weather discussion:

THE BIG STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE EXTREME COLD. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER BY FAR INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF TAKE 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -32C ON SATURDAY. TO PUT THIS
IN PROSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A
KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST
EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C. THIS FRIGID AIRMASS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS ON SATURDAY...AND IF THE TIMING
WORKS OUT WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD CROSSING DURING THE DAY HIGHS
MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO
EVERYWHERE...AND 20 BELOW OR BETTER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO
LAKE INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF BITTER COLD AND WIND WILL PRODUCE
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF -40 BELOW.

This will make the snow to rain/slop event Tuesday even harder to take.

Why was I born a snow weenie and how do I finally make it stop?

My forecast shows 20 deg and 0 as a low on Sat. Will get some pond, stream and river and lake ice for sure. Hope we can keep it going. I wouldnt worry about next Tuesday just yet. Just glad to see some coooold temps show themself this year.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Feb 09, 2016 5:52 pm

Going into today there have only been 10 days out of 70 this meteorological winter that the temperatures have been below normal.

Sorry but in my book that is one sorry ass winter.

However it is amazing that despite that most in our area from NYC on south have seen 30-40 inches of snow.

Conversely most in our area 50 miles north of NYC have seen less than 10 inches.

Weird

by **frank 638** Tue Feb 09, 2016 6:40 pm

that is weird even Buffalo Watertown and further north and west does not have a lot of snow I was on my way to stew Leonards in Yonkers and some parts of the small mountains has no snow

by **frank 638** Tue Feb 09, 2016 7:44 pm

Will NYC go below zero on sat night ?? Last time that happened was in Jan of 94 forcast low for sat night will be 3

by **dkodgis** Tue Feb 09, 2016 9:37 pm

CP: "..sorry ass winter." <---So true, so true.

by **snow247** Tue Feb 09, 2016 9:50 pm

Depressing.

by **RJB8525** Tue Feb 09, 2016 11:11 pm

Is it possible our only big storm event has come and gone?

I know there's a few on the table but each update seems to kill them

by Abba701 Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:30 am

If JONAS was the only big storm its ok.After the warmest December ever we should be happy this winter didn't end up with the least snow.Also was there a mo mo this week?

by **SNOW MAN** Wed Feb 10, 2016 1:23 am

It seems all we say is on to the next one, but the next one never materializes. It looks good on the models, but then we get these sorry ass snowfalls of dustings to a half inch. All that does is screw up the roads when your trying to get to and from work (I commute 62 miles each way). If we're not going to get a decent storm. I for one say lets get to Spring the sooner the better.
CP your right "one sorry ass Winter". I bet you next week we'll probably have a decent storm, but it will probably start as snow and then change to rain or who knows it will probably be in the 50's and it will just rain. It seems to always happens that way. I know I know we're going to get the BIG one at the end of the month. I'll believe it when my eye's see it. UGH !!! Mad

OK I'm done. WHEW ! I feel better now.
Back to the sanitarium on the OTI. pale

by **amugs** Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:27 am

The last two storm trends were bad for my area - Friday was surprise picking up 4". I am not saying this winter has sucked for me, Dec was absolutely 100000000% horrid but the 180 we did in January was like teh hail mary Rodgers threw against the Lions. This Nino was projected by so many to be a 97-98 snowless, torch. Now I know the HV gang has been skunked big time but overall CPK, S and E are above normal. I am about 6"-7" below normal and I have high confidence I reach this and exceed this reaching my 40" mark for the season that I called in my winter outlook back in Nov.

When was the last time anyone going back to the channel 7 board days gave up on a storm as I did last night? Never and it has been frustrating this week - thought we could get a SECS at the least. Amazing how delicate the line is for a good or big storm but rain all to frequent. This is not just my opinion and not looking for conversation just getting things off my snow weenie mind!!

Track the PD 3 system and then take a few days to recoup and saddle up for the last ride of winter imo. Mid March we end this and bring on Spring.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Feb 10, 2016 9:15 am

Mugs despite the snow in south and east areas you cannot call this winter anything other than a torch. The average temperature since December 1 in NYC makes it the warmest meteorological winter in history so far. Only 11 days out of 71 have been below normal. How is that anything other than a torch?

Spin it any way you want but a winter of a couple of snow events followed by quick melting and continuous temperatures above normal just Sucks big time. I know you're the eternal optimist but facts are facts my friend.

by **SNOW MAN** Wed Feb 10, 2016 9:19 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Mugs despite the snow in south and east areas you cannot call this winter anything other than a torch. The average temperature since December 1 in NYC makes it the warmest meteorological winter in history so far. Only 11 days out of 71 have been below normal. How is that anything other than a torch?

Spin it any way you want but a winter of a couple of snow events followed by quick melting and continuous temperatures above normal just Sucks big time. I know you're the eternal optimist but facts are facts my friend.

CP, In through the nose out through the mouth. I detect a little hostility in that post. affraid

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Feb 10, 2016 9:26 am

SNOW MAN wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Mugs despite the snow in south and east areas you cannot call this winter anything other than a torch. The average temperature since December 1 in NYC makes it the warmest meteorological winter in history so far. Only 11 days out of 71 have been below normal. How is that anything other than a torch?

Spin it any way you want but a winter of a couple of snow events followed by quick melting and continuous temperatures above normal just Sucks big time. I know you're the eternal optimist but facts are facts my friend.

CP, In through the nose out through the mouth. I detect a little hostility in that post.

Snowman I thought I put a smiley face at the end so it wouldn't be interpreted that way. You know I love the ex King and was just stating the facts as dismal as they are.

by Guest Wed Feb 10, 2016 9:28 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Mugs despite the snow in south and east areas you cannot call this winter anything other than a torch. The average temperature since December 1 in NYC makes it the warmest meteorological winter in history so far. Only 11 days out of 71 have been below normal. How is that anything other than a torch?

Spin it any way you want but a winter of a couple of snow events followed by quick melting and continuous temperatures above normal just Sucks big time. I know you're the eternal optimist but facts are facts my friend.

CP. I've actually gotten 41.5" IMBY and I feel like this winter has sucked. It came mostly in 2 events (26" and then 10.5") and most melted away fast. I currently have a 6-8" snowpack which should stick around for a little while hopefully changing my sentiments.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Feb 10, 2016 9:33 am

syosnow94 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Mugs despite the snow in south and east areas you cannot call this winter anything other than a torch. The average temperature since December 1 in NYC makes it the warmest meteorological winter in history so far. Only 11 days out of 71 have been below normal. How is that anything other than a torch?

Spin it any way you want but a winter of a couple of snow events followed by quick melting and continuous temperatures above normal just Sucks big time. I know you're the eternal optimist but facts are facts my friend.

CP. I've actually gotten 41.5" IMBY and I feel like this winter has sucked. It came mostly in 2 events (26" and then 10.5") and most melted away fast. I currently have a 6-8" snowpack which should stick around for a little while hopefully changing my sentiments.

Amazing, and I did get a taste of it Monday. I'm at 18.6 for the season now. Looks like we may not come close this year. Last year I remember we were running neck and neck. I finished with 72.2, what was your total last year?

by **amugs** Wed Feb 10, 2016 10:33 am

CP,

Point taken on temps so far. Not trying to spin anything here. The comparison to 97 -98 as I stated is not true here even temps wise - that winter was the worst IMO - 40's and 50's with lows barely reaching freezing and no snow until a March storm that gave me 4" and melted by 3PM that day. We have had a couple cold stretches and one bitter one coming up again nada in 97-98 again my comparison which NOAA and other where referencing back in Nov.
But as I see it from IMBY my ice rink meter has been in use since Jan 18th all but 5 days in this stretch and for 3-4 days previous to this - somewhat like last year as per the Mugno BC Outdoor Arena usage up until this point. Once that puppy freezes she holds on tooth and nail. Helps 3/4 is in shade too. No usage at all in Dec last year either it started on Jan 5/6th last year and we had 5 days where we could not use it until March 8th.

We'll see how the rest of winter plays out here CP and my man I hear your frustration and down trotted view of this winter. I hope and pray you hv guys do well in the reloaded stretch upcoming.

by Guest Wed Feb 10, 2016 10:40 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Mugs despite the snow in south and east areas you cannot call this winter anything other than a torch. The average temperature since December 1 in NYC makes it the warmest meteorological winter in history so far. Only 11 days out of 71 have been below normal. How is that anything other than a torch?

Spin it any way you want but a winter of a couple of snow events followed by quick melting and continuous temperatures above normal just Sucks big time. I know you're the eternal optimist but facts are facts my friend.

CP. I've actually gotten 41.5" IMBY and I feel like this winter has sucked. It came mostly in 2 events (26" and then 10.5") and most melted away fast. I currently have a 6-8" snowpack which should stick around for a little while hopefully changing my sentiments.

Amazing, and I did get a taste of it Monday. I'm at 18.6 for the season now. Looks like we may not come close this year. Last year I remember we were running neck and neck. I finished with 72.2, what was your total last year?

70" on the nose last year.

by **billg315** Wed Feb 10, 2016 9:46 pm

Well, after 2 hectic days my move is complete and I finally have an opportunity to sit down and relax. So back to storm tracking. Hopefully this system early next week has some promise.

by **SoulSingMG** Thu Feb 11, 2016 2:32 am

Ahh, it's like really thumping snow right now over Manhattan...

by JoeBx82 Thu Feb 11, 2016 2:44 am

Near whiteout conditions for a few minutes in the Bronx. Pretty much stopped now. Got a good coating.

by Bkdude Thu Feb 11, 2016 3:07 am

JoeBx82 wrote:Near whiteout conditions for a few minutes in the Bronx. Pretty much stopped now. Got a good coating.

yup. over quick with some nice wind gusts. what a tease!

by **Dunnzoo** Thu Feb 11, 2016 6:32 am

Anyone know where the pivotal weather website comes from? It has great graphics and clickable soundings but can't find any other info...

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Feb 11, 2016 11:45 am

Regarding this Tuesdays storm, this has actually gotten quite funny.

You know funny in that way where you laugh hysterically because you're right at that point of being driven to the edge of insanity.

Yes that kind of funny.

by **jimv45** Thu Feb 11, 2016 11:53 am

I know that feeling cp my wife thinks I need help when she hears that laugh!! When its cold the storms stay south and east then when a storm looks good for our area it goes west and it rains from -10 to 40s and rain just insane!!

by **hyde345** Thu Feb 11, 2016 12:02 pm

jimv45 wrote:I know that feeling cp my wife thinks I need help when she hears that laugh!! When its cold the storms stay south and east then when a storm looks good for our area it goes west and it rains from -10 to 40s and rain just insane!!

This will forever be known in these parts as the winter from hell-nino.

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