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Wx Banter Thread 2.0

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Post by dkodgis Tue Feb 16, 2016 5:35 pm

January 2016 the hottest on record:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/january-smashed-another-global-temperature-record/ar-BBpzSlc?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=iehp

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Post by Guest Tue Feb 16, 2016 5:52 pm

I think this is a bridge jump for me this winter. Three straight months of more or less reaching precip. averages and it's been rain all 3 times. It even hurts to dream of snow at this point.

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Post by Math23x7 Tue Feb 16, 2016 11:01 pm

My brother John is a freshman at Kings College in Wilkes-Barre, PA.  He took this video last night of the snow to sleet to eventually rain storm.  Say what you want about him using his finger as a snow measurement, it was probably more accurate than the zookeeper's snow measurements at CPK prior to this winter  Razz


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Post by amugs Wed Feb 17, 2016 2:57 pm

The dam euro better be right with this storm next week as currently progged since it called the inland runner but could not see the front end thump (not dump as i referred to it as) cause it had its gw goggles on!!

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Post by Guest Fri Feb 19, 2016 10:26 am

I re-posted this in the banter section in response to Frank's last post in the long range thread.

Why is it ridiculous. I acknowledged my large snow total! I also never said I expected below freezing temps. for the entire winter. My point was/is that there have been many, many threats this winter and only 2 have panned out. (maybe 2 and a half) And they really only panned out for the coast, the interior has gotten screwed and the ski resorts are devoid of any natural snow. IMO 2 storms within a week when winter lasts for 3 months is a really bad winter. If people disagree God bless them, but I am entitled to make a post without getting demeaned no??

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 19, 2016 10:37 am

Due to the active sub tropical jet enhanced by El Nino we were always progged to see many events. You should feel fortunate LI has had a few storms work in their favor to get you to 40". But apparently it's "one of the most disappointing winters you've ever lived through". Do you want to go back to 2011-2012, 2006-2008, or 2001-2002? I just can't comprehend your logic. And yes those N&W have not faired well but your initial post only speaks to your backyard. 



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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 19, 2016 10:39 am

syosnow94 wrote:I re-posted this in the banter section in response to Frank's last post in the long range thread.

Why is it ridiculous. I acknowledged my large snow total! I also never said I expected below freezing temps. for the entire winter. My point was/is that there have been many, many threats this winter and only 2 have panned out. (maybe 2 and a half) And they really only panned out for the coast, the interior has gotten screwed and the ski resorts are devoid of any natural snow. IMO 2 storms within a week when winter lasts for 3 months is a really bad winter. If people disagree God bless them, but I am entitled to make a post without getting demeaned no??

You beat me to it. I persoanlly agree with you Jim in a sense that at least the way this winter makes me feel is not as good as one would expect given that I am above avg. If at the begining of this year if you asked me how I would feel if by Feb 19th you would be above 30" of snow with the last 10days of Feb and March to go I would have prob told you I would be thrilled. That said I dont feel thrilled right now. I am not hanging myself either. I understand the circumstances of this winter; why things are what they are and will be what they will be. I still anticipate several more chances at accumulating snow through the end of March. Some bigger some smaller chances. I recognize that some of those chances will not pan out.

"God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change; the courange to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference"

This can apply to multiple areas in life. Not just an AA or NA meeting. We cannot change the last 2.5months, nor can we change what happens in the next 1.5months. But we can change how we look at it. Its up to you to do so. Next week is not set in stone. We can still get accumulating snow from either Sun/ Monday or later in the week. The manner in which accumulating snow occurs, and who sees it and how much may not be how we want it, but its still possible. Beyond next week into March still looks great for "chances". I will cont to look at the glass half full and hope for accumulating snow one way or another. This is my opinion in this type of winter. You are all entitled to your opinion on it. If you want to express your opinion on it please do so in the Banter thread. Thanks. That said

shout shout shout shout shout shout shout shout shout shout shout shout shout shout shout shout shout shout shout shout shout shout shout shout shout shout shout shout shout

On this winter. I feel better...back to glass half full.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by Math23x7 Fri Feb 19, 2016 1:02 pm

I have brought this up before but NYC went 15 consecutive snow seasons (That's right, FIFTEEN!!!) without 30"+ of snow from 1978-79 to 1992-93. In the 14 snow seasons since 2002, nine of them have had 30"+ including this one. And James I know you lived near where I live now during that time. Would you like to go back in time to that period? No? I didn't think so. I agree with Frank and Scott's points about this winter. Seems to me like we need to have that Rollin Greens meetup sooner rather than later. I was there last week and you knew it was loud as the Rangers game was on.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Feb 19, 2016 1:32 pm

Speaking from my vantage point having received 27 inches thus far, I can say this winter has been "decent". Yes we can piss and moan about all the blown potentials we've endured, and I'm one of those who blames it squarely on this super El nino. I know other weather enthusiasts don't agree with this line of thinking that there are other teleconnections at play that dictates the weather at any given time. My answer to that is they are only half right. Unless you have overwhelming factors in your favor i.e. -NAO/-EPO/ -AO/+PNA the subtropical jet will drive warmth as well moisture into our backyards. I for one is already looking forward to next winter. Way too early to speculate on what the pattern will resemble, but if I had to make a guess I would say a weak La nina will be at play. I would much rather take my chances with that then a super El nino any day of the week!!! My venting is finished ladies and gents. Here's hoping for a strong finish to this winter. By the way I'm agreeing with Frank that we will see another Godzilla before all is said and done.
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Post by Guest Fri Feb 19, 2016 1:37 pm

One of the things that we're constantly reminded of whenever a storm is being tracked is the importance of not living and dying with each individual run. On a larger scale, I think the same thing applies to judging a winter based on each individual system that moves through. Back in November, Frank gave us his winter outlook and for better of worse, the board was resigned to what was comparatively going to be a disappointing season. But has it been disappointing in the larger scale or just in the individual systems? I was curious as to how this winter's snowfall totals stacked up compared to the bar that has been set based on Frank's outlook so I went to the NOAA's snow monitoring page and looked up how this winter has stacked up compared to what we were hinted as to expect. I've taken a paragraph from Frank's outlook and included it here. The numbers on the left are Frank's predictions for the season's snowfall and on the right are the NOAA's official data. Yes, the Frankzilla will skew the numbers, but that's the event everybody will remember from this year, if for nothing else than how amazing it was that so much snow could disappear so quickly. With all of that in mind, let's look at the numbers starting with a paragraph taken from Frank's outlook posted back on November 7th.

" Snowfall Forecast for I-95 Corridor

Tracking snow along the I-95 corridor may come late this year. The Polar Jet Stream is not going to overrun the Sub-Tropical Jet Stream until El Nino weakens to moderate stages. This means mild air is going to win out over cold air for the first month of winter. Like I mentioned, by Christmas we should begin to see changes with more cold air being pulled south and east to the east coast. Here is a prediction for select cities of total snowfall this season. These numbers take into consideration all the factors I detailed above. I usually do not like to do these type of predictions because the point of a seasonal outlook is not to be this granular. So I warn to take these numbers with a grain of salt. For example, all it takes is 1 big storm to hit Philly for this prediction to be way off.

NYC: 30-40"                                        NOAA total YTD: LGA: 33.4                   JFK: 39.4

Washington D.C: 15-25"             NOAA total YTD: Dulles 33.4"               Reagen: 21.8"

Philly: 20-30"                                  NOAA total YTD:26.2"

Boston: 45-55"                               NOAA total YTD: 24.7 "

Newark, NJ: 30-40"                      NOAA total YTD: 33.8"

Hackettstown, NJ: 45-55"         NOAA total YTD: 36" (Phillipsburg measuring station data. Also                                            
                                                                                                       note that many dates information are not
                                                                                                       listed. Lack of data is why Belvidere                                
                                                                                                       station was not used.)


Atlantic City, NJ: 25-35"           NOAA total YTD:  20.3"

Allentown, PA: 35-45"              NOAA total YTD: 35.5"


In not so brief summary, obviously the blizzard skews all of those figures, but the point is that winter has provided more or less what was promised. With a few weeks to go, it's possible that every place mentioned will surpass their estimated total for the season. And if it happens that no more snow falls for the rest of the season, Frank will have been dead on. (Except for Boston, but after they got all the snow last year they deserve this.) Also, Frank is to be congratulated for being so accurate in a season where we've seen historical warmth, record setting cold and temperature swings that could give somebody whiplash.
It's strange how everybody could get more than expected and yet the season will still be seen as a disaster. Maybe what we get isn't as important as how we get it. Or maybe, just maybe, this board is inhabited by out of control snow junkies for whom too much will never be enough. Just my two cents from the far western frontier.

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Post by hyde345 Fri Feb 19, 2016 1:49 pm

I would be thrilled with 40 inches, hell I'll take half that. I live halfway between Albany and NYC and I have a grand total of 5.5 inches. That's right, 5.5 inches, and every time it has snowed it has melted or been washed away within 24 hours. There hasn't been 2 consecutive days that I couldn't see grass. I have watched virga on the radar a few times this year as 60 miles to my south a foot or more has fallen. The only people who have a legit complaint about snowfall this year are some people in EPA and the HV, especially those unfortunate souls who happen to live north of Rt. 84.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 19, 2016 2:01 pm

TheAresian wrote:One of the things that we're constantly reminded of whenever a storm is being tracked is the importance of not living and dying with each individual run. On a larger scale, I think the same thing applies to judging a winter based on each individual system that moves through. Back in November, Frank gave us his winter outlook and for better of worse, the board was resigned to what was comparatively going to be a disappointing season. But has it been disappointing in the larger scale or just in the individual systems? I was curious as to how this winter's snowfall totals stacked up compared to the bar that has been set based on Frank's outlook so I went to the NOAA's snow monitoring page and looked up how this winter has stacked up compared to what we were hinted as to expect. I've taken a paragraph from Frank's outlook and included it here. The numbers on the left are Frank's predictions for the season's snowfall and on the right are the NOAA's official data. Yes, the Frankzilla will skew the numbers, but that's the event everybody will remember from this year, if for nothing else than how amazing it was that so much snow could disappear so quickly. With all of that in mind, let's look at the numbers starting with a paragraph taken from Frank's outlook posted back on November 7th.

" Snowfall Forecast for I-95 Corridor

Tracking snow along the I-95 corridor may come late this year. The Polar Jet Stream is not going to overrun the Sub-Tropical Jet Stream until El Nino weakens to moderate stages. This means mild air is going to win out over cold air for the first month of winter. Like I mentioned, by Christmas we should begin to see changes with more cold air being pulled south and east to the east coast. Here is a prediction for select cities of total snowfall this season. These numbers take into consideration all the factors I detailed above. I usually do not like to do these type of predictions because the point of a seasonal outlook is not to be this granular. So I warn to take these numbers with a grain of salt. For example, all it takes is 1 big storm to hit Philly for this prediction to be way off.

NYC: 30-40"                                        NOAA total YTD: LGA: 33.4                   JFK: 39.4

Washington D.C: 15-25"             NOAA total YTD: Dulles 33.4"               Reagen: 21.8"

Philly: 20-30"                                  NOAA total YTD:26.2"

Boston: 45-55"                               NOAA total YTD: 24.7 "

Newark, NJ: 30-40"                      NOAA total YTD: 33.8"

Hackettstown, NJ: 45-55"         NOAA total YTD: 36" (Phillipsburg measuring station data. Also                                            
                                                                                                       note that many dates information are not
                                                                                                       listed. Lack of data is why Belvidere                                
                                                                                                       station was not used.)


Atlantic City, NJ: 25-35"           NOAA total YTD:  20.3"

Allentown, PA: 35-45"              NOAA total YTD: 35.5"


In not so brief summary, obviously the blizzard skews all of those figures, but the point is that winter has provided more or less what was promised. With a few weeks to go, it's possible that every place mentioned will surpass their estimated total for the season. And if it happens that no more snow falls for the rest of the season, Frank will have been dead on. (Except for Boston, but after they got all the snow last year they deserve this.) Also, Frank is to be congratulated for being so accurate in a season where we've seen historical warmth, record setting cold and temperature swings that could give somebody whiplash.
It's strange how everybody could get more than expected and yet the season will still be seen as a disaster. Maybe what we get isn't as important as how we get it. Or maybe, just maybe, this board is inhabited by out of control snow junkies for whom too much will never be enough. Just my two cents from the far western frontier.

This post is a breath of fresh air. THANK YOU.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 19, 2016 2:04 pm

hyde345 wrote:I would be thrilled with 40 inches, hell I'll take half that. I live halfway between Albany and NYC and I have a grand total of 5.5 inches. That's right, 5.5 inches, and every time it has snowed it has melted or been washed away within 24 hours. There hasn't been 2 consecutive days that I couldn't see grass. I have watched virga on the radar a few times this year as 60 miles to my south a foot or more has fallen. The only people who have a legit complaint about snowfall this year are some people in EPA and the HV, especially those unfortunate souls who happen to live north of Rt. 84.

There is no doubt those N&W of NYC have suffered this year. I'm hoping the rest of this month and March allows you to catch up.

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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 19, 2016 2:10 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
hyde345 wrote:I would be thrilled with 40 inches, hell I'll take half that. I live halfway between Albany and NYC and I have a grand total of 5.5 inches. That's right, 5.5 inches, and every time it has snowed it has melted or been washed away within 24 hours. There hasn't been 2 consecutive days that I couldn't see grass. I have watched virga on the radar a few times this year as 60 miles to my south a foot or more has fallen. The only people who have a legit complaint about snowfall this year are some people in EPA and the HV, especially those unfortunate souls who happen to live north of Rt. 84.

There is no doubt those N&W of NYC have suffered this year. I'm hoping the rest of this month and March allows you to catch up.

Frank, so glad you are better.You need a few plates of broccoli rabe with garlic, paisan!

All along in conjunction with your work on the long range forecast in the Fall, I have been thinking things would not really get in gear until late Feb to mid March.It still holds for us in the HV, hoping for a HV Special to get us even with Jimmy in LI,LOL!

In the words of our beloved Yogi...."It aint over til it's over!"

Be well, good friend!!!
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Post by Guest Fri Feb 19, 2016 2:15 pm

For whatever it's worth, my small town on the Appalachian plateau averages about 37.5" of snow. So far, we've gotten 12. Is it a letdown? Sure, but like somebody on the board mentioned a while back, there is so much passion in tracking the storm, checking out the maps, monitoring the trends and changes. Hell, before I started coming here if somebody has asked me to point out the closed low on H5, I would have looked at them as if they started growing antennae. Now I'm more like a kid who's gotten past number line and is starting to get the beginnings of a handle on things. A lot? No. But enough that every winter I can come here, tracks storms with cool people who are even crazier about snow as I am and not feel like the kid that needs special help all the time. Hell, it's worth going one storm for the season if for no other reason than to watch Syo's head explode with every 5 miles shift in a storm's track. And I mean that in the nicest way possible.

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Post by jimv45 Fri Feb 19, 2016 2:16 pm

Glad you are feeling better Frank!  Doc I just want something even if it gets washed away by rain that's how bad its got up here for me to wish that. Will be leaving for Italy In April just give me a gift before I leave.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 19, 2016 2:18 pm

Nice post Aresian:

My pet peeve as always and I've mentioned this many times, and I don't blame you it's the stupid Weather channel for continually doing this.

Dulles airport is not part of Washington DC, it's not anywhere near WDC. It's a solid 35 miles west at a higher elevation in the state of Virginia. For TWC to constantly put up snowfall totals and temperatures for Dulles airport as if it happened in WDC would be like posting snowfall totals and temperatures in West Milford NJ as if they happened in NYC.

And please I get it that people use Dulles as one of the main airports to fly into WDC but it's in the state of Virginia.

Washington DC's only reporting station is Reagan national airport. And just like we have with the zookeeper the people down there have issues with the way they measure snow there. Which is odd for an airport, you would think they would care about keeping good records.

Vent over, back to my D- winter.
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Post by Guest Fri Feb 19, 2016 2:20 pm

On the NOAA page, Reagan and Dulles are both listed as being in Virginia. Having a terrible knowledge of airport geography,I put both in to be on the safe side.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 19, 2016 2:21 pm

docstox12 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
hyde345 wrote:I would be thrilled with 40 inches, hell I'll take half that. I live halfway between Albany and NYC and I have a grand total of 5.5 inches. That's right, 5.5 inches, and every time it has snowed it has melted or been washed away within 24 hours. There hasn't been 2 consecutive days that I couldn't see grass. I have watched virga on the radar a few times this year as 60 miles to my south a foot or more has fallen. The only people who have a legit complaint about snowfall this year are some people in EPA and the HV, especially those unfortunate souls who happen to live north of Rt. 84.

There is no doubt those N&W of NYC have suffered this year. I'm hoping the rest of this month and March allows you to catch up.

Frank, so glad you are better.You need a few plates of broccoli rabe with garlic, paisan!

All along in conjunction with your work on the long range forecast in the Fall, I have been thinking things would not really get in gear until late Feb to mid March.It still holds for us in the HV, hoping for a HV Special to get us even with Jimmy in LI,LOL!

In the words of our beloved Yogi...."It aint over til it's over!"

Be well, good friend!!!

Love Yogi. Thank you Doc. 

jimv45 wrote:Glad you are feeling better Frank!  Doc I just want something even if it gets washed away by rain that's how bad its got up here for me to wish that. Will be leaving for Italy In April just give me a gift before I leave.

I may be in Italy September this year. 

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Nice post Aresian:

My pet peeve as always and I've mentioned this many times, and I don't blame you it's the stupid Weather channel for continually doing this.

Dulles airport is not part of Washington DC, it's not anywhere near WDC. It's a solid 35 miles west at a higher elevation in the state of Virginia. For TWC to constantly put up snowfall totals and temperatures for Dulles airport as if it happened in WDC would be like posting snowfall totals and temperatures in West Milford NJ as if they happened in NYC.

And please I get it that people use Dulles as one of the main airports to fly into WDC but it's in the state of Virginia.

Washington DC's only reporting station is Reagan national airport. And just like we have with the zookeeper the people down there have issued with the way they measure snow there. Which is odd for an airport, you would think they would care about keeping good records.

Vent over, back to my D- winter.

I don't understand why they do that?

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Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 26 Empty Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by amugs Fri Feb 19, 2016 2:24 pm

TheAresian wrote:One of the things that we're constantly reminded of whenever a storm is being tracked is the importance of not living and dying with each individual run. On a larger scale, I think the same thing applies to judging a winter based on each individual system that moves through. Back in November, Frank gave us his winter outlook and for better of worse, the board was resigned to what was comparatively going to be a disappointing season. But has it been disappointing in the larger scale or just in the individual systems? I was curious as to how this winter's snowfall totals stacked up compared to the bar that has been set based on Frank's outlook so I went to the NOAA's snow monitoring page and looked up how this winter has stacked up compared to what we were hinted as to expect. I've taken a paragraph from Frank's outlook and included it here. The numbers on the left are Frank's predictions for the season's snowfall and on the right are the NOAA's official data. Yes, the Frankzilla will skew the numbers, but that's the event everybody will remember from this year, if for nothing else than how amazing it was that so much snow could disappear so quickly. With all of that in mind, let's look at the numbers starting with a paragraph taken from Frank's outlook posted back on November 7th.

" Snowfall Forecast for I-95 Corridor

Tracking snow along the I-95 corridor may come late this year. The Polar Jet Stream is not going to overrun the Sub-Tropical Jet Stream until El Nino weakens to moderate stages. This means mild air is going to win out over cold air for the first month of winter. Like I mentioned, by Christmas we should begin to see changes with more cold air being pulled south and east to the east coast. Here is a prediction for select cities of total snowfall this season. These numbers take into consideration all the factors I detailed above. I usually do not like to do these type of predictions because the point of a seasonal outlook is not to be this granular. So I warn to take these numbers with a grain of salt. For example, all it takes is 1 big storm to hit Philly for this prediction to be way off.

NYC: 30-40"                                        NOAA total YTD: LGA: 33.4                   JFK: 39.4

Washington D.C: 15-25"             NOAA total YTD: Dulles 33.4"               Reagen: 21.8"

Philly: 20-30"                                  NOAA total YTD:26.2"

Boston: 45-55"                               NOAA total YTD: 24.7 "

Newark, NJ: 30-40"                      NOAA total YTD: 33.8"

Hackettstown, NJ: 45-55"         NOAA total YTD: 36" (Phillipsburg measuring station data. Also                                            
                                                                                                       note that many dates information are not
                                                                                                       listed. Lack of data is why Belvidere                                
                                                                                                       station was not used.)


Atlantic City, NJ: 25-35"           NOAA total YTD:  20.3"

Allentown, PA: 35-45"              NOAA total YTD: 35.5"


In not so brief summary, obviously the blizzard skews all of those figures, but the point is that winter has provided more or less what was promised. With a few weeks to go, it's possible that every place mentioned will surpass their estimated total for the season. And if it happens that no more snow falls for the rest of the season, Frank will have been dead on. (Except for Boston, but after they got all the snow last year they deserve this.) Also, Frank is to be congratulated for being so accurate in a season where we've seen historical warmth, record setting cold and temperature swings that could give somebody whiplash.
It's strange how everybody could get more than expected and yet the season will still be seen as a disaster. Maybe what we get isn't as important as how we get it. Or maybe, just maybe, this board is inhabited by out of control snow junkies for whom too much will never be enough. Just my two cents from the far western frontier.

The frontiersman has spoken - they know best since teh y live with teh land not against it!

I wholeheartedly agree, I am teh consummate optimist when it come sto white gold and cold - have been since I was a little boy and though I may sound like that little boy posting when a big storm is incoming I realize in my short life how RARE these are in one's lifetime. From 1974-1994 I saw 4 such storm - 1977 nor'easter, 1978 PD, 1983 and Superstorm so I embrace them with all my might when they are progged. 1994 -2016 - 96 Bliz, 2003 PD2, 2006 Snowicane, Boxer Day, this last one - not too shaby with a bunch more 10" plus storms for me in NNJ that had blizzard conditions but weren't classified. Sometimes we get spoiled and want the ultimate.

Frank made teh call back in Nov and he never said cold and snowy all the time like 2014-15. He si going to be dead on once again and we should all not doubt our leader!
Am I disappointed Big Momma did not give us some of those storms - hells ya BUT I have seen this numerous times before and will in teh future so I move onto teh next one. This will go down as a historic winter for many different reasons - cold, warmth, snowfall, storms.

Let me remind ya'll that March is usually when we have beasts of storms due to the warm moist air looking to head north and the cold polar jet saying I aint done yet and IF the PV does indeed split then holy hannahs is all I have to say.

We have to have patience with this set up and if we have not learned this by now then we have not learned a thing - teh teacher in me.

To SNOW and COLD in March for Madness in weather and to the PV doing a split! cheers

Frustrating at times absolutely but fun at times - I woudl say so - blizzard was to me teh epitome of emotions.

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 26 Empty Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 19, 2016 2:40 pm

TheAresian wrote:One of the things that we're constantly reminded of whenever a storm is being tracked is the importance of not living and dying with each individual run. On a larger scale, I think the same thing applies to judging a winter based on each individual system that moves through. Back in November, Frank gave us his winter outlook and for better of worse, the board was resigned to what was comparatively going to be a disappointing season. But has it been disappointing in the larger scale or just in the individual systems? I was curious as to how this winter's snowfall totals stacked up compared to the bar that has been set based on Frank's outlook so I went to the NOAA's snow monitoring page and looked up how this winter has stacked up compared to what we were hinted as to expect. I've taken a paragraph from Frank's outlook and included it here. The numbers on the left are Frank's predictions for the season's snowfall and on the right are the NOAA's official data. Yes, the Frankzilla will skew the numbers, but that's the event everybody will remember from this year, if for nothing else than how amazing it was that so much snow could disappear so quickly. With all of that in mind, let's look at the numbers starting with a paragraph taken from Frank's outlook posted back on November 7th.

" Snowfall Forecast for I-95 Corridor

Tracking snow along the I-95 corridor may come late this year. The Polar Jet Stream is not going to overrun the Sub-Tropical Jet Stream until El Nino weakens to moderate stages. This means mild air is going to win out over cold air for the first month of winter. Like I mentioned, by Christmas we should begin to see changes with more cold air being pulled south and east to the east coast. Here is a prediction for select cities of total snowfall this season. These numbers take into consideration all the factors I detailed above. I usually do not like to do these type of predictions because the point of a seasonal outlook is not to be this granular. So I warn to take these numbers with a grain of salt. For example, all it takes is 1 big storm to hit Philly for this prediction to be way off.

NYC: 30-40"                                        NOAA total YTD: LGA: 33.4                   JFK: 39.4

Washington D.C: 15-25"             NOAA total YTD: Dulles 33.4"               Reagen: 21.8"

Philly: 20-30"                                  NOAA total YTD:26.2"

Boston: 45-55"                               NOAA total YTD: 24.7 "

Newark, NJ: 30-40"                      NOAA total YTD: 33.8"

Hackettstown, NJ: 45-55"         NOAA total YTD: 36" (Phillipsburg measuring station data. Also                                            
                                                                                                       note that many dates information are not
                                                                                                       listed. Lack of data is why Belvidere                                
                                                                                                       station was not used.)


Atlantic City, NJ: 25-35"           NOAA total YTD:  20.3"

Allentown, PA: 35-45"              NOAA total YTD: 35.5"


In not so brief summary, obviously the blizzard skews all of those figures, but the point is that winter has provided more or less what was promised. With a few weeks to go, it's possible that every place mentioned will surpass their estimated total for the season. And if it happens that no more snow falls for the rest of the season, Frank will have been dead on. (Except for Boston, but after they got all the snow last year they deserve this.) Also, Frank is to be congratulated for being so accurate in a season where we've seen historical warmth, record setting cold and temperature swings that could give somebody whiplash.
It's strange how everybody could get more than expected and yet the season will still be seen as a disaster. Maybe what we get isn't as important as how we get it. Or maybe, just maybe, this board is inhabited by out of control snow junkies for whom too much will never be enough. Just my two cents from the far western frontier.

GREAT POST!!

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by Guest Fri Feb 19, 2016 4:45 pm

Holy research!!! I just honestly don't see where my head was exploding today. Expressing frustration at many missed threats is not my head exploding. Saying the winter has been disappointing even though I am at 44" Imby is not my head exploding. It's a personal preference. I never expected the protracted cold of last year, but I did expect more than 2 or 3 snow events in 3 months time. I would much rather below normal temps and weekly snow threats like the last 2 years than a gigantic dump that melts within 3 days giving us our seasonal avg. in just one storm. Again just a preference. I also never expected this year to be like last. Frank made that pretty clear, plus I have lived through elnino years before.

However when threat after threat for 3 months don't work out, I will complain. This is not head exploding or attacking the meteorologists on here. Everyone's panties get all up in a bunch real quick. In the future I suggest one of the moderators come up with a list of phrases we can use to vent when storms don't work out our way so we can just copy and paste them and this way no one will be upset by it because they know what's coming. Holy cow!,,

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Feb 20, 2016 7:40 am

you know...I woke up the other day and noticed that our winter duck friends are gone, this morning our doves are back, they set up their nest under our deck...(every year my husband says he is going to put up netting....but I am happy my friends keep coming back and no net..only inconvenience for a short time) the point to my rambling is they are really early...not a good sign in my book for us winter lovers...
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 20, 2016 7:50 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:you know...I woke up the other day and noticed that our winter duck friends are gone, this morning our doves are back, they set up their nest under our deck...(every year my husband says he is going to put up netting....but I am happy my friends keep coming back and no net..only inconvenience for a short time) the point to my rambling is they are really early...not a good sign in my book for us winter lovers...

Even the animals are confused. There have been much more above normal days than below normal, but when it has been below normal it's been pretty cold. Poor things.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 20, 2016 8:05 am

Sunday night threat 200 miles to our south and mid week threat now hitting Chicago on the 6Z GFS, the good news is an 800 mile shift east and we're good.

You just can't make this winter up. My D- may fall to an F by the end of next week unless I curve the scores.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 20, 2016 8:13 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Sunday night threat 200 miles to our south and mid week threat now hitting Chicago on the 6Z  GFS, the good news is an 800 mile shift east and we're good.

You just can't make this winter up. My D- may fall to an F by the end of next week unless I curve the scores.

The scary part is I already have an idea of what next winter may be like. And it's not pretty...

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Post by Radz Sat Feb 20, 2016 8:21 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:you know...I woke up the other day and noticed that our winter duck friends are gone, this morning our doves are back, they set up their nest under our deck...(every year my husband says he is going to put up netting....but I am happy my friends keep coming back and no net..only inconvenience for a short time) the point to my rambling is they are really early...not a good sign in my book for us winter lovers...

We've noticed that the birds are back and nesting here as well, and also bunnies popping up all over... definitely early this year, and with the temps predicted this weekend, it will really feel like spring...
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