01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible

The EURO is about 2.0 inches of liquid for the area.

ROIDZILLA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

amugs wrote:SYO U CRY ABOUT THIS STORM AND I WILL KICK UR BUT AND THEN BAN U

2.4" qpf. minimum verbatim on this run for EVERYONE!!

Much better ridge out west closes off early and straight up the coast and SLOWER - peeps the masses in I 95 corridor are going to get chaotic - u watch

syosnow94 wrote:

amugs wrote:SYO U CRY ABOUT THIS STORM AND I WILL KICK UR BUT AND THEN BAN U

2.4" qpf. minimum verbatim on this run for EVERYONE!!

U KNOW I LOVE U PAISAN EVEN THOUGH U CAN BE A PAIN AT TIMES!!

ALSO, just read this

EURO IS TOO SLOW WITH THE WAA. THIS ALWAYS HAPPENS.
BUMP IT UP 6-12 HOURS FOR THE START.

Personally, I'd like to see H5 about another 75-100 miles further north, but the fact that the EURO caved is good enough for today ahahahaha

EURO snowmap is very impressive.

rb924119 wrote:Personally, I'd like to see H5 about another 75-100 miles further north, but the fact that the EURO caved is good enough for today ahahahaha

I am assuming it did not make it north because of the location it closed off at. Plus ridge out west is de-amplifying by then.

amugs wrote:Much better ridge out west closes off early and straight  up the coast and SLOWER - peeps the masses in I 95 corridor are going to get chaotic - u watch

Yes we will be getting our bread and milk lol

The LP is going to be so massive, I don;t think anyone will have to worry about if the cold air is going to be there.

@Track 7 please let it play out from a post you made 3 pages back - and welcome to the board. leave that up to us we'll bring you top the promise land - you stand top get 16" plus feel better now??

Just a MASSIVE storm!! What were the winds on the EURO?

12z JMA

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Personally, I'd like to see H5 about another 75-100 miles further north, but the fact that the EURO caved is good enough for today ahahahaha

I am assuming it did not make it north because of the location it closed off at. Plus ridge out west is de-amplifying by then.

Yeah, exactly. That's also why the jackpot is in WV/western MD/VA. Besides the orographic forcing, that's also when H5 is maturing the most, once it heads up our way it's already weakening, which is why the banding is not as impressive as the GFS and CMC. The key here, though, is that it came back to those ideas, and didn't stray towards an OTS solution. That boosted my morale significantly.

devsman wrote:The LP is going to be so massive, I don;t think anyone will have to worry about if the cold air is going to be there.

That is the thing. Because it is so large and the upper energy is huge, there will be so much dynamics in play that people will get 12+" of snow just from banding. The SLP could be in SNJ and places in CT will get a Godzilla.

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Personally, I'd like to see H5 about another 75-100 miles further north, but the fact that the EURO caved is good enough for today ahahahaha

I am assuming it did not make it north because of the location it closed off at. Plus ridge out west is de-amplifying by then.

Yeah, exactly. That's also why the jackpot is in WV/western MD/VA. Besides the orographic forcing, that's also when H5 is maturing the most, once it heads up our way it's already weakening, which is why the banding is not as impressive as the GFS and CMC. The key here, though, is that it came back to those ideas, and didn't stray towards an OTS solution. That boosted my morale significantly.

Agreed the east solution from last night definitely scared me as well. I feel much better about this storm. I will be very interested to see EPS members.

Quick question i see where I'm at almost 2.5 qpf. Wouldn't that aquite to much more snowfall plus the big bath tub of a ocean enhancing it

We should really begin talking more about the WINDS

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Personally, I'd like to see H5 about another 75-100 miles further north, but the fact that the EURO caved is good enough for today ahahahaha

I am assuming it did not make it north because of the location it closed off at. Plus ridge out west is de-amplifying by then.

Yeah, exactly. That's also why the jackpot is in WV/western MD/VA. Besides the orographic forcing, that's also when H5 is maturing the most, once it heads up our way it's already weakening, which is why the banding is not as impressive as the GFS and CMC. The key here, though, is that it came back to those ideas, and didn't stray towards an OTS solution. That boosted my morale significantly.

Agreed the east solution from last night definitely scared me as well. I feel much better about this storm. I will be very interested to see EPS members.

I will say this; IF we see clusterings like the GFS, where they are inside the OP/mean, I think we're set in stone. Given the trends today on all operational guidance, as well as a westward lean in the ensemble members, if we see that in the EURO ensemble that may set it in stone. At least in my opinion.

Frank - I was just posting that as you did -same with the pbp - brilliant minds - yuo are more than me with teh weather - think alike!!

Frank, what's SLP?

Winds you say? JMan where are you? :-)

jake732 wrote:Frank, what's SLP?

Surface Low Pressure

Rb how do you like Fishkill?  Looks like we might do pretty good up here plus its colder i like the trends so far long way to go!!