01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off

The euro keeps closing H5 over TN then occludes it. It's either 100% or very lost since it has no support.

We still barely -- BARELY -- get clipped by the CCB at 114-117.

Yikes. Why does this always happen with modes?! We had SUCH agreement. I cannot be on board with this storm unless the Euro is. She's right too many times lol

What's curious is the EPS were NW of the OP last night. I wonder what they show today. And remember...EURO was wrong with Juno. It's not ALWAYS right.

Yikes is right and frank it doesn't have support is true but this could be the start of something bad!

I know the EURO has a good track record and all, but I'm not buying this solution one bit. Absolutely no support from the other models which are all showing 2 inches precip. Toss it!

Frank_Wx wrote:What's curious is the EPS were NW of the OP last night. I wonder what they show today. And remember...EURO was wrong with Juno. It's not ALWAYS right.

It will be right this time because we get screwed especially in HV. Awful run.

But I'm hearing the UKMET is similar to EURO? Sorry, at airport and can't confirm...

Just one model run no need to panic. But this is one scenario I mentioned in Banter this morning so I'm not surprised it is in the mix. 4 days out a south shift isn't impossible. Remember the Feb 5-6, 2010 storm that buried DC, Balt and Philly but only dropped 2 or 3 inches in most of central/north Jersey. Always a possibility.

Ugglu Uggly run from Euro here. Could very well be losing it in the med range and then brings it back tomorrow - the emotional roller coaster of the winter storms.
Closed things off over SC, tried to recover but damage was done.
Onto tonight's runs and tomorrow's.

nutleyblizzard wrote:I know the EURO has a good track record and all, but I'm not buying this solution one bit. Absolutely no support from the other models which are all showing 2 inches precip. Toss it!

You can't toss it. Maybe it's picking up on something that the other models aren't yet. I hope it's wrong but I'm not going to disregard it. This is not good.

Hyde I was happy when i saw the GFS for everybody now this!!! the winter of 2015 2016 is just so frustrating!!!!! got to remain positive!!

What would the city get if it verified? Nothing ?

What time does the Euro para come out

Abba701 wrote:What would the city get if it verified? Nothing ?

3-6"

chief7 wrote:What time does the Euro para come out

No one knows. It comes out on its own.

not much anywhere like it looked before but its still got time!

EURO has agreement from some GFS and CMC ensemble members. *bleep* this is not what I wanted to see. Turning into a redux of all the failed storms of the past 10 years.... everytime someone throws around the word "historic" 4-5 days out it never ends well. This trend will continue and this storm will NOT be historic... knew it was too good to be true.

You def cannot toss the Euro. The Euro is not always right. It has little to no support, but it is the Euro, and has been known to sniff out the final soln well before others. Remember Hurricane Joaquin. It had ZERO support for its idea of staying OTS, but ultimately was dead on balls accurate. This is why you wait until energy is fully sampled before jumping on any one bandwagon. There is no need to panic just yet, but I wont lie I am a little nervous. If it was the GFS or CMC I would be less nervous. Energy is fully sampled with tonights 00z runs so by the morning we will know for sure which direction this will be headed.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:EURO has agreement from some GFS and CMC ensemble members. *bleep* this is not what I wanted to see. Turning into a redux of all the failed storms of the past 10 years.... everytime someone throws around the word "historic" 4-5 days out it never ends well. This trend will continue and this storm will NOT be historic... knew it was too good to be true.

not this winter. Its predictably heartbreaking

Grselig wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:EURO has agreement from some GFS and CMC ensemble members. *bleep* this is not what I wanted to see. Turning into a redux of all the failed storms of the past 10 years.... everytime someone throws around the word "historic" 4-5 days out it never ends well. This trend will continue and this storm will NOT be historic... knew it was too good to be true.

not this winter.  Its predictably heartbreaking

Ugh.... 2001 anyone

bernie rayno does NOT think the euro is really correct. frank, if the euro verifies what do we see on jersey coast?

I wonder what the Euro snow map or I say lack of snow map looks like.