01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

jake732 wrote:Rb, how does it effect us that is south?

Less snow. A lot less in this case.

jimv45 wrote:And it continues Rb up then down and all around.

UGHHHHHH lmfao

ensembles have next to nothing, looks like the Euro run oh god.

According the mean even DC gets only 8.

please dont wake Frank, we dont need a coronary on our hands. Let it play out overnight, no bridge-jumping anytime soon.

Boy this winter is just unbelievable your up then down then up and now this. It feels like I am a roller coaster.

Artechmetals wrote:I am confused please someone explain what this means ?

Basically it means the Operational run, the one we were all celebrating is alone with respect to it's own family. The ensemble contains 21 members, all of which use the exact same dynamical core as the Operational, but each one of the members has one input that is tweaked slightly from the Operational (one may feature a stronger piece of energy, another may feature stronger jets, the dew points may be higher in another, etc.) and then run. This creates a spectrum of possible solutions, which is helpful in trying to determine the probabilities of outcomes. In this case, the Operational has very little support from it's ensemble, which makes it a far northern and amplified outlier, unfortunately. Does that help?

I'm not understanding didn't gfs trend north ? What is all this other stuff going on

DC gets only 8 on GFS ensembles.That Dosent make sense

Here are the panels:

Artechmetals wrote:I'm not understanding didn't gfs trend north ? What is all this other stuff going on

The Operational did, but the ensembles did not follow. They look like the Euro.

Thanks Rb it helps but also made me sick but thanks for the input

That's the GEFS

Artechmetals wrote:Thanks Rb it helps but also made me sick but thanks for the input

You and me both, man. You and me both

Abba701 wrote:That's the GEFS

The panels are, yes.

I'm going to bed; I've had enough for one night haha Good night all, and may positive vibes rule!! Remember, it's not over until it's over!!!

I see.I think NYC will not see the big snow.Will
They see at least 6 inches? Maybe

jimv45 wrote:Boy this winter is just unbelievable your up then down then up and now this. It feels like I am a roller coaster.

Other than a couple of days ago please remind me of the up days of this winter because I'm not remembering any.

Is this true what just read???? please don't mess with my head RB

CP Is this true what RB was showing??

Yea cp I should have said this storm. This winter so far is not a winter.

In terms of cold it's a winter at least the last couple weeks anyway

and the EURO is being thrown out

"AND THE ECMWF THE WORST. IN FACT...THE ECMWF IS
SO FAR FROM ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS
IN 4 DISTINCT AREAS BEGINNING SATURDAY THAT IT WAS NOT USED AT ALL
IN THE BLENDING PROCESS"


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

I say 3-6 city

Abba701 wrote:I say 3-6 city

Based on what?

None of the ensembles even remotely resemble the OP, how does that make sense than not even one looks similar?

Based on the GFS ensemble and euro