February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Why does everybody seem angry with this storm ???

Nyi Many members have not had any snow this season They are not as lucky as we are in Port Jefferson Gee are totals are over 30" and more tomorrow I wish the HV folks get some as well as NW areas

Look at the radar closely. There is zero north or west movement to the precip. And Nyi I have gotten more than my fair share of snow this year, brut to see the satellite and water vapor images of this monster and to know it is so close, but going to miss us is incredibly frustrating. This Thing has the look of a storm that would have been talked about 100 years from now!!

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_ncep_jet:&runTime=2016020803&plotName=cref_sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=25&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=24&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=full


Current HRRR Loop

Syo, it's not going to be the storm of the century but you are in a good position to get 3-6. The precip is moving north slowly but it will reach you by morning. It's us guys in the HV the have to worry about being on the northern and western fringe and getting screwed again.

Man this is a monster

Storm Center is almost on top of Buoy 41424 can't get any data from that one

Advisories and warnings (central and eastern LI) have been issued. Overnight it appears the heavy axis of snow shifted east to take Jersey Shore out of the higher accumulations. I also feel getting the snow to stick may be a problem under light returns during the day. The best rates will be over LI. 1-3 for NYC Metro and Jersey Shore, 3-6 for LI.

Temp 37.7*.

Light snow breaking out. Hoping that band moves 25miles NW

sroc4 wrote:

Latest fom Upton:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR SHOWS BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH H7-5
FRONTOGENESIS POISED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN SPREAD NW INTO MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S ALONG THE COAST AND IN NYC METRO...PRECIP COULD BE MIXED WITH
RAIN AT THE VERY ONSET...BUT THEN EVAPORATIVE/DYNAMIC COOLING FROM
ALOFT SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO SNOW. THE SNOW WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT...AND BASED ON RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP/HRRR...
THINK HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD MAKE IT FARTHER WEST INTO SOUTHERN CT
AND EXPANDED WINTER STORM WARNING TO NEW HAVEN COUNTY. WITH NE
WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FORKS AND COASTAL SE CT. THE COMBO OF STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY SNOW COULD ALSO RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

FARTHER WEST...SNOW SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH LIFT
GENERATED A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER JET STREAK OVER INTERIOR PA/NY.
THESE AREAS SHOULD SEE A GENERAL 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL...AND EXPANDED
WINTER WX ADVY WESTWARD TO COVER ALL BUT ORANGE AND WESTERN
PASSAIC COUNTIES.

TEMPS AFTER SNOW BEGINS WILL BE AROUND OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING...THEN SLOWLY FALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE UPPER 20S
INLAND AND JUST BELOW FREEZING AT THE COAST.

Latest HRRR

Amazing Sat Loops:

Not even a flurry and my kids school is closed. Think they will be regretting this decision

31.6, 78%, 29.52F

NWS has me up to 2 to 4 from only an inch last night.Radar shows most of the precip way east of me but slowly moving N and W.Better be a rapid expansion of this soon for that forecast to play out.Also, temp almost freezing here, got to be above freezing S and E of me.

36.7°
29.54↓
55%

gigs68 wrote:Not even a flurry and my kids school is closed.  Think they will be regretting this decision

I remember as a kid we used to go to school on these sorts of days, and get out early. My kids school are closed as well. Although I currently have mod snowfall. Grassy surfaces I had cleared away for the dog are already covered.

Down to 33* from 37.7* an hr ago now that the prcip has started

docstox12 wrote:31.6, 78%, 29.52F

NWS has me up to 2 to 4 from only an inch last night.Radar shows most of the precip way east of me but slowly moving N and W.Better be a rapid expansion of this soon for that forecast to play out.Also, temp almost freezing here, got to be above freezing S and E of me.

Highly doubt we get 2 to 4 around here. Maybe an inch at best if we're lucky.

snow247 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:31.6, 78%, 29.52F

NWS has me up to 2 to 4 from only an inch last night.Radar shows most of the precip way east of me but slowly moving N and W.Better be a rapid expansion of this soon for that forecast to play out.Also, temp almost freezing here, got to be above freezing S and E of me.

Highly doubt we get 2 to 4 around here. Maybe an inch at best if we're lucky.

Latest Upton reasoning from Sroc's post:

FARTHER WEST...SNOW SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH LIFT
GENERATED A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER JET STREAK OVER INTERIOR PA/NY.
THESE AREAS SHOULD SEE A GENERAL 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL...AND EXPANDED
WINTER WX ADVY WESTWARD TO COVER ALL BUT ORANGE AND WESTERN
PASSAIC COUNTIES.

snow247 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:31.6, 78%, 29.52F

NWS has me up to 2 to 4 from only an inch last night.Radar shows most of the precip way east of me but slowly moving N and W.Better be a rapid expansion of this soon for that forecast to play out.Also, temp almost freezing here, got to be above freezing S and E of me.

Highly doubt we get 2 to 4 around here. Maybe an inch at best if we're lucky.

From the looks of that radar, I'd be surprised to get anything at all up here.

34* Snowing very lightly Started 20 minutes ago SROC Will we get 5" out of this Don't look to impressive

oldtimer wrote:34*  Snowing very lightly  Started 20 minutes ago   SROC  Will we get 5" out of this   Don't look to impressive  

oldtimer wrote:34*  Snowing very lightly  Started 20 minutes ago   SROC  Will we get 5" out of this   Don't look to impressive  

If we can get that band to move a little north and west and get it to park over us for a few hrs like it is over the south fork at the moment we could get 6-10". I've been in some mod snow now for about an hrs do all surfaces are covered. About 1/4 - 1/2" already. I think 4-8" west to east is def possible for Suffolk and even mor out on the twin forks.

Sroc Yes I see if those bands get over us for some time Thanks